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Off-grid: A Modest Meal for Starving Energy Storage Developers

発行 Lux Research 商品コード 225947
出版日 ページ情報 英文 32 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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オフグリッド電力市場:粗食を囲む餓死寸前のエネルギー貯蔵開発事業 Off-grid: A Modest Meal for Starving Energy Storage Developers
出版日: 2011年06月16日 ページ情報: 英文 32 Pages






  • 大きな成長性を持つ4地域のオフグリッド市場。ただし主流は現行技術


  • いずれの市場でもこれから足がかりを見つける必要がある代替の蓄電・発電技術
    • 収益不十分が証明された送電網補助用途
    • バッテリーに対して比較的良好な相性を持つ輸送市場も収益までは長い道のり
  • 新興市場は現行技術に対するその優位性を評価してくれる市場を見つける必要がある
  • 操業要件が新興技術に合致した4つの主要市場
    • 9つの多岐にわたる技術が現行用途への取り組みに利用可能
    • 現行技術は確立された成果と経済的利点からあまりにも定形化
    • 拡大途上にある通信市場は、動作可能時間の最大化を図る一方で、稼働・保守コスト低減へ
    • ダウンタイムペナルティの多発に苦しむデータセンター市場も、推進要因は生涯コストの最小化
    • 辺境地・オフグリッド市場は拡大基調も、専用バッテリーが障害となっていずれの技術も主流に至らず
    • 仮設の戦術軍事基地は比較的高額な資本支出を許容も、価値提案重視の姿勢は変わらず
  • オフグリッド市場は、新興技術にとって救いの恵みなのか、あるいはまたしても袋小路なのか?
  • 概況についての結論


  • 手法次第で集められる新技術にとって最大限の競争資本コスト
  • 新興技術の収益力は、年間発電力ファクターと燃料コストで分岐する
    • 新興技術の損益分岐点は年間1000稼働時間
    • 比較的高コストのディーゼル発電は、通信やデータセンター市場への導入拡大に不向き
  • オフグリッド市場は現行技術優勢のまま、135億ドル規模に到達する見込み
    • 独自の推進要因と障害に遭遇する辺境地でのバックアップ・発電市場
    • 新興技術の次なる大市場はいまだ手の届かないはるか遠方に
  • 新興技術にとってオフグリッド市場が注視に値するも、賛美には値せず


Lux Researchについて


Product Code: LRSGI-R-11-2

Despite high-value capital infusions, acclaimed public offerings, and over a decade of development, emerging storage and generation companies have seen limited traction in the transportation and grid-tied markets. Off-grid markets, such as telecommunication backup and datacenter uninterruptable power supply, which will represent a 10.6 GW and $13.5 billion market in 2016, offer unique opportunities for emerging technologies. However, these cost-conscious off-grid markets are presently dominated by mature, incumbent technologies, including diesel generators and lead-acid batteries. An analysis of the lifetime costs of incumbent and emerging technologies leads us to forecast that incumbents will only cede 13% of the capacity in the off-grid market to emerging technologies in 2016, accounting for $4 billion in revenue. Therefore, technology developers looking to attain scale and lower costs must move quickly to capture what they can of this minority share of a significant market.

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
      • Four Off-grid markets Offer Sizable Potential, but Are Dominated by Incumbent Technologies
  • Landscape
    • Alternative Storage and Generation Technologies Have Yet to Find Their Footing in Any Market
      • Grid-support Applications have Proven Less than Fruitful
      • Transportation Market Looks More Habitable for Batteries, but Still Far from a Feast
    • Emerging Technologies Must Find Markets that Value Their Advantages over Incumbent Technologies
    • Four Key Markets Demand Operational Requirements Suited to Emerging Technologies
      • Nine Diverse Technologies Are Capable of Addressing these Applications Today
      • Incumbent Technologies Are Strongly Entrenched Due to Proven Performance and Favorable Economics
      • The Expanding Telecom Market Seeks to Maximize Uptime While Mitigating O&M Costs
      • Data Centers Face Unbearable Penalties for Downtime, but Are Still Driven by Lowest Lifetime Costs
      • Rural / Off-grid Market Is Expansive, but Unique Barriers Prevent Any Technology from Dominating the Space
      • Non-permanent Tactical Military Bases Can Tolerate Higher Capex, but Still Focus on Value Proposition
    • Are Off-grid Markets the Saving Grace for Emerging Technologies, or Yet Another Dead End?
    • Landscape Conclusions
  • Analysis
    • Methodology Yields the Maximum Competitive Capital Cost for New Technologies
    • Economics for Emerging Technologies Hinge on Annual Capacity Factor and Fuel Costs
      • Emerging Technologies Break-even Only above 1,000 Operating Hours per Year
      • Higher Diesel Costs are Insufficient to Drive Adoption in the Telecom and Datacenter Markets
    • The Off-grid Market Will Reach $13.5 Billion, with Incumbents Continuing to Dominate
      • The Rural Backup and Generation Market Faces Unique Drivers and Hurdles
      • The Next Big Markets for Emerging Technologies Remain Far from Reach
    • The Off-Grid Market for Emerging Technologies Is Worth Attention, but Not Celebration
  • Outlook
  • About Lux Research
  • Endnotes
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