This report analyzes the new business opportunity for suppliers of vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser
(VCSEL) arrays for applications in 3D depth sensing for smartphone applications. It reviews different 3D
sensing technologies and the VCSEL arrays required to support them. It offers an analysis of the leading
VCSEL arrays vendors and discusses future developments in the supply chain.
The report offers historical data on shipments of VCSEL arrays for 3D depth sensing in 2017-2018 and a
forecast for 2019-2023 sorted into several product categories. It also presents historical data and a
forecast for shipments of VCSELs and VCSEL arrays for applications in optical communications. The
database, published along with the report, offers units shipment, average selling prices and revenues for
various VCSEL product categories.
LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: 3D Sensing: The Mega Trend for 2018
- The Kinect is dead, long live the Kinect
- It takes two to (Google) Tango
- All about Apple
- More than the iPhone X, expect a boom in 3D sensing
- Market drivers for 3D sensing: Will consumers accept facial recognition?
- 3D sensing and AR/VR: Why it matters to Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft
- Beyond mobile: more applications for 3D sensing
Chapter 2: 3D Depth Measurement Techniques
- Making light work of depth measurement
- Active stereo camera
- Structured light
- Time-of-flight camera
- Technology limitations and challenges
- Performance in bright sunlight
- Technology comparison for different use cases
Chapter 3: The 3D Depth Sensing Ecosystem
- VCSELs are the key building block for 3D sensing
- From datacom lasers to 3D sensing is not a huge leap
- Supply is concentrated in a few VCSEL players
- Six-inch wafer manufacturing will be crucial to success
- Substantial six-inch foundry capacity is under construction
Chapter 4: Market Forecast for 3D Depth Sensing VCSEL arrays
- Forecast scope and product definitions
- VCSEL Arrays for 3D Depth Sensing Forecast
- Revenues from this opportunity could exceed $1.8 billion in 2023
- Shipments of arrays for 3D depth sensing will exceed 2 billion by 2023
- VCSEL array prices for 3D sensing applications will face strong pressure
- Total proximity sensor shipments will reach almost 800 million units in 2023
- Comparison: VCSEL Arrays in Communications
- 3D depth sensing revenues are about 3X larger than communications
- Communications VCSELs have higher prices along with lower volumes
Appendix: Selected Vendor Profiles
- Vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers
- AMS (Heptagon and Princeton Optronics)
- Broadcom Corp.
- Finisar Corp.
- HLJ Technology Co. Ltd
- II-VI, Inc.
- Osram Opto Semiconductors GmbH
- Philips Photonics
- 3D sensor module design
- Himax Technologies, Inc.
- Infineon Technologies AG
- Intel Corp. / RealSense
- Orbbec 3D Technology International Inc.
- Mantis Vision
- Microsoft Corp.
- OmniVision Technologies, Inc.
- PMD Technologies AG
- Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
- Sony Depthsensing Solutions
- Texas Instruments
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure E-1: Sales of VCSELs and VCSEL arrays into datacom and 3D depth sensing applications.
- Figure E-2: Average selling price of packaged VCSEL products
- Figure E-3: 3D depth sensing and the Gartner Hype Cycle
- Figure 1-1: NASA's JPL is using Kinect to control robotic arms
- Figure 1-2: Back view of Intel RealSense™ Smartphone Developer Kit
- Figure 1-3: The original Kinect for Xbox 360
- Figure 1-4: Optical components in the ‘notch' of the iPhone X
- Figure 1-5: Amazon's Echo Look launch
- Figure 1-6: Oculus made acquisitions of its own including gesture recognition company Nimble VR
- Figure 1-7: Magic Leap headset
- Figure 2-1: 3D depth measurement techniques and their main proponents
- Figure 2-2: Passive and active stereo explained
- Figure 2-3: The Intel SR300 depth camera uses time-coded Gray patterns
- Figure 2-4: Time of flight principle (direct system)
- Figure 2-5: Solar radiation spectrum indicating water absorption bands
- Figure 3-1: Schematic of a typical gallium arsenide based VCSEL
- Figure 3-2: Photo of a 4x25G VCSEL array chip used in datacom (0.4x1mm in size)
- Figure 3-3: Example of a VCSEL array chip used in 3D sensing applications
- Figure 3-4: Supply chain for illuminators in 3D sensing
- Figure 4-1: Handset sales projections used to drive the VCSEL forecast
- Figure 4-2: Forecast logic
- Figure 4-3: VCSEL Arrays for 3D Depth Sensing revenue forecast
- Figure 4-4: Annual unit shipments of VCSEL arrays for 3D depth sensing
- Figure 4-5: Average sales prices (ASPs) of VCSEL arrays for 3D depth sensing
- Figure A-1: Wafer level optics from Heptagon/AMS
- Figure A-2: High power VCSEL array and assembled chip with more than 2000 individual mesas
- Figure A-3: Schematic of the wafer-level optics production process
- Figure A-4: The 3D camera module from Lenovo's Phab2 Pro smartphone (left) with Infineon's REAL3™ image sensor chip
- Figure A-5: A collection of D4xx RealSense camera modules that all use the same ASIC
- Figure A-6: Sony SoftKinetic sensor