This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2022 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.
Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2016 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting's proprietary forecast model, which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.
LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.
Table of Contents
- List of Figures and Tables
- Abstract
Executive Summary
- A slow start of the year in China does not derail projections for market growth in 2017.
- The China Mobile Factor
- Data on Network Bandwidth Growth
- Demand for Optics in the Cloud
- Access Optics
- The bottom line
Section 1: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview
In 2016 Operator Revenues Grew while Capex Declined
Operator Capex is Forecast to Decline 4% to $170 billion in 2017
- Mergers and acquisitions
- China reaches 250 million FTTH subscribers and 61% 4G uptake in 1Q 2017
- 3GPP moves to accelerate 5G specification work
- AT&T trials white boxes; Google shares SDN---NFV know---how with mobile operators
- Broadband in India spurred by new entrant Reliance Jio Infocomm
Section 2: Internet Infrastructure Drivers
- Internet infrastructure spending returned to double---digit growth in 2016
- Five companies continue to dominate Internet infrastructure spending
- Cloud services revenue increasing as share of total
- Internet companies' cash hits $450 billion in 2016
- Strong companies are eating the weak
Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications
- CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
- Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds
- Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps transceivers will coexist, at least for now
- SONET/SDH transceivers
- FTTx Optical Components
- Optical transceivers for wireless fronthaul and backhaul
Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications.
- Ethernet Transceivers
- Hyperscale data centers drive adoption of higher---speed Ethernet modules
- 40GbE
- 100GbE
- 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE - The next Ethernet speeds
- Fibre Channel Transceivers
- Optical Interconnects
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure E---1: Capex of Top 15 Service Providers by Region
- Figure E---2: Details of China Mobile Capex
- Figure E---3: Growth rate in DWDM Network Bandwidth by Segment
- Figure E---4: Sales of Ethernet transceivers and DWDM components and modules (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure E---5: Sales if Optical modules for FTTx and wireless infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure E---6: Sales of Optics Components and Modules by Application or Region.
- Figure 1---1: Total revenue of the top 15 service providers, 2011---2016
- Figure 1---2: Total capex of the top 15 service providers: 2011---2017 (estimate)
- Figure 1---3: Revenue changes 2016 versus 2015 for the top 15 service providers
- Figure 1---4: Revenue of the top 15 service providers by geographic region
- Figure 1---5: Capex of the top 15 service providers by geographic region: 2011--- 2017 (estimate)
- Table 1---1: Recent and ongoing merger and acquisitions
- Figure 1---6: Chinese operators' FTTH subscribers:1Q 2017
- Figure 1---7: The Chinese operators' LTE subscribers:1Q 2017
- Figure 1---8: Indian market's broadband users - wired and wireline
- Figure 1---9: Subscriber count for top 5 Indian mobile operators
- Figure 2---1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Figure 2---2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E
- Figure 2---3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues ($ millions) reported by major players
- Table 2.2: Mergers and acquisitions among major Internet companies
- Figure 3---1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---3: Sales of WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and200/400G DWDM ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---5: Shipments of 100G/200/400G ports measured in100G port equivalents by application (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---6: Shipments of 100G DWDM transponders by type (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---7:10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Sales (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---8: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---9: New FTTH subscribers vs. annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---10: China's impact on access optics market revenues
- Figure 3---11: FTTx optics revenues (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---12: Mobile connections by technology
- Figure 3---13: Wireless Infrastructure Optical Modules Shipments (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---14: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3---15: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4---6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast)
