This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2022 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.
Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2016 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting's proprietary forecast model, which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.
LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.
Table of Contents
- List of Figures and Tables
Executive Summary
- Lower than expected demand from the telecom segment interrupts growth of optics
- Substitution of QSFP28 LR4 modules for CFP/CFP2s limits supplier revenue growth
- ICPs spending grows, but it remains well below CSP's capex level
- CSPs feel more urgency in transforming their business
- The Bottom Line
Section 1: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview
- Operator Revenues Set to be Flat in 2017
- Operator Capex is Forecast to Decline 4% to $170 billion in 2017
- M&As, IPOs and investments
- 68% of China's mobile users now on LTE, and FTTH subs reach 282 mn in 3Q 2017
- Telcos start to gain 5G field trial experience
- ONAP expands; AT&T's lofty VOLTHA ambitions; Open ROADM 2.0
- India adds 75 million mobile broadband subscribers in 2017
Section 2: Internet Infrastructure Drivers
- Internet infrastructure spending stays in solid double-digit growth in 2017
- Five companies continue to dominate Internet infrastructure spending
- Cloud services revenue increasing as share of total
- Internet companies' cash hits $494 billion in 1H17
- Strong companies are eating the weak
Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications
- CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
- Sales of 100/200/400G DWDM transponders dominate this segment
- DCOs, ACOs and Direct Detect transponders will compete for market share
- Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps DWDM transceivers continue to coexist
- SONET/SDH transceivers
- FTTx Optical Components
- Optical transceivers for wireless fronthaul and backhaul
Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications
- Ethernet Transceivers
- Hyperscale data centers drive adoption of higher-speed Ethernet modules
- 40GbE
- 100GbE
- 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE - The next Ethernet speeds
- Fibre Channel Transceivers
- Optical Interconnects
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure E-1: Sales of Optics Components and Modules by Application or Region (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure E-2: Changes to the forecast for sales of optical transceivers in 2017
- Figure E-3: Total capex of the top 15 service providers and ICPs: 2011-2017 (estimate)
- Figure E-4: Optical components forecast 2017-2022
- Figure 1-1: Total revenue of the top 15 service providers, 2012-2017 (estimate)
- Figure 1-2: Revenue changes 1H2017 versus 1H2016 for the top 15 service providers
- Figure 1-3: Revenue of the top 15 service providers by geographic region 2012 to 2017 (estimate)
- Figure 1-4: Total capex of the top 15 service providers: 2011-2017 (estimate)
- Figure 1-5: Capex of the top 15 service providers by geographic region: 2012-2017 (estimate)
- Table 1-1: Recent and ongoing merger and acquisitions
- Figure 1-6: The Chinese operators' LTE subscribers: 2Q 2016 to 3Q 2017
- Figure 1-7: Chinese operators' FTTH subscribers: 2Q 2016 to 3Q 2017
- Figure 1-8: Indian market's broadband users - wired and wireline: July 2016 to July 2017
- Figure 1-9: Broadband subscriber count for top five Indian mobile operators
- Figure 2-1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Figure 2-2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E
- Figure 2-3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues ($ millions) reported by major players
- Table 2.2: Mergers and acquisitions among major Internet companies
- Figure 3-1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-3: WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and 200/400G DWDM ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-5: Shipments of 100G/200/400G ports in 100G port equivalents by application
- Figure 3-6: Shipments of 100G DWDM Transponders by product type (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-7: Shipments of 200G DWDM Transponders by product type (Forecast)
- Figure 3-8: Shipments of 400G DWDM Transponders by product type (Forecast)
- Figure 3-9: 10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Sales (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-10: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-11: New FTTH subscribers vs. annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-12: China's impact on access optics market revenues
- Figure 3-13: FTTx optics revenues (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-14: Mobile connections by technology
- Figure 3-15: Wireless Infrastructure Optical Modules Shipments (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-16: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-17: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast)
