This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2021 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high - performance computing (HPC) applications.
Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2015 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting's forecast model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.
LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.
Table of Contents
- List of Figures and Tables
- Abstract
Executive Summary
- Demand for optics remains strong.
- FTTx and Wireless segments will remain prone to fluctuations.
- Market growth hinges on the adoption of next generation technologies.
- Changes in the forecast
- Wild cards and tripwires
Section 1a: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview
- Revenue and capex in 2015 impacted by the strong dollar
- 2016 capex forecast at $178 billion, a decline of 7% year-on-year
- Chinese operators enter a new era of modest revenue growth and capex cuts
- Mergers and acquisitions
- 5G radio set for a staggered rollout
- Data centers as towers: Are data centers falling out of favor for the telcos?
- BT's strategy for growing core capacity
- Telcos put collaboration above rivalry in response to their newest rivals
Section 1b: Service Provider Highlights
- AT&T
- BT Group
- China Mobile
- China Telecom
- China Unicom
- Comcast
- Deutsche Telekom
- Orange
- KDDI
- NTT
- Softbank
- Telecom Italia
- Telefonica
- Verizon
- Vodafone
Section 2a: Internet Infrastructure Drivers
- Internet infrastructure spending reached a new high in 2015
- Five companies dominated Internet infrastructure spending in 2015
- Cloud services revenue doubled in 2015
- Internet companies' cash hoards swell to $365 billion in 2015
Section 2b: Internet Company Highlights
- Alibaba
- Alphabet (formerly Google)
- Amazon
- Apple
- Baidu
- eBay
- Facebook
- LinkedIn
- Microsoft
- Oracle
- PayPal
- Tencent
- Twitter
- Yahoo
- Things to watch
Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications
- CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
- Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds
- Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps transceivers will coexist, at least for now
- SONET/SDH transceivers
- SFP+ is replacing XFP for OC-192 applications
- FTTx Transceivers
- Optical modules for wireless infrastructure
Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications.
- Ethernet Transceivers
- Hyperscale data centers push adoption of higher-speed Ethernet modules
- 40GbE
- 100GbE
- 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE now part of our forecast
- Fibre Channel Transceivers
- Fibre Channel slump ending, aided by flash systems
Appendix A: Selected Financial Data
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure S-1: Global sales of optical components and modules (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure S-2: Sales of optical transceivers and BOSAs used in FTTx and wireless infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure S-3a: Sales of 100G DWDM modulators and coherent receivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure S-3b: Sales of 100G DWDM transponders (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure S-4: Sales of 40GbE optical transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure S-5: Sales of 100GbE Optical Transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Table 1-1: AT&T's four main business units
- Table 1-2: BT's business units following the integration of EE
- Figure 2-1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Figure 2-2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E
- Figure 2-3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
- Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues reported by major players
- Figure 3-1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-3: Sales of WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and 200/400G DWDM ports (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-5: Shipments of 100G and 200/400G ports by application (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-6: Shipments of 100G DWDM transponders by type (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-7: 10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Unit Shipments (Historical and Forecast Data)
- Figure 3-8: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-9: Sales of OC-192 Transceivers by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-10: Comparison between the number of new FTTH subscribers and annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-11: Sales of different types of FTTx transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-12: Mobile connections by technology
- Figure 3-13: Shipments of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-14: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 3-15: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4-6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast)
- Table A-1: Revenue and capex of the top 15 telecom service providers
- Table A-2: Revenue, Spending*, and Margins of LightCounting's Internet Index companies
- Table A-3: Quarterly financial data for LightCounting's Internet Index companies
- Table A-4: Additional quarterly financial data for LightCounting's Internet Index companies
