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光通信市場予測:インフラ支出が低成長にも関わらず、光通信需要は堅調を維持 (2016-2021年)

Optical Communications Market Forecast: Demand for Optics Will Remain Strong in 2016-2021, Despite Lower Growth in Infrastructure Spending

発行 LightCounting, LLC 商品コード 281615
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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光通信市場予測:インフラ支出が低成長にも関わらず、光通信需要は堅調を維持 (2016-2021年) Optical Communications Market Forecast: Demand for Optics Will Remain Strong in 2016-2021, Despite Lower Growth in Infrastructure Spending
出版日: 2016年04月15日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、イーサネット、ファイバーチャンネル、SONET/SDH、CWDM/DWDM、ワイヤレスインフラ、FTTxおよびHPCアプリケーションで用いられる光コンポーネント・モジュールの詳細な市場需要予測を提供しており、主要サービスプロバイダー15社および主要インターネット企業のビジネスとインフラ支出の分析、およびトランシーバーベンダー30社以上の売上データなどをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

1a:キャリアの収益、Capexの概要

  • 2015年の収益・Capexガイダンスは強いドルから影響を受ける
  • 2016年のCapexは1,780億ドルで、対前年比7%減少となる見込み
  • 中国の通信業者は収益が緩やかに成長し、CAPEXを削減する新しい時代に入る
  • M&A
  • 5G受信機、驚愕の新発表
  • データセンターは通信各社の支持を失いつつある?
  • BTのコアキャパシティ成長戦略
  • 通信各社は新たなライバルに対応すべく敵対関係を超えて協力体制へ

1b:通信サービスプロバイダーのハイライト

  • AT&T
  • BT Group
  • China Mobile
  • China Telecom
  • China Unicom
  • Comcast
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Orange
  • KDDI
  • NTT
  • ソフトバンク
  • Telecom Italia
  • Telefonica
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone

2a:インターネットインフラの促進因子

  • 2015年もインターネットインフラ支出の拡大が続く
  • 2015年のインターネットインフラ支出は5社が独占
  • クラウドサービスのビジネス収益は倍増
  • 2015年のインターネット企業のcash hoard (現金貯蔵) は3,650億米ドルに増加

2b:インターネット企業のハイライト

  • Alibaba
  • Alphabet (元Google)
  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • Baidu
  • eBay
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Microsoft
  • Oracle
  • PayPal
  • Tencent
  • Twitter
  • Yahoo
  • Things to watch

3:通信トランシーバー・モジュールの予測

  • CWDM・DWDM トランシーバー
    • コアネットワークは高速での展開を続ける
    • 少なくともこれまでののところ、チューナブル・固定10Gbpsトランシーバーは共存の見込み
  • SONET/SDH トランシーバー
    • OC-192アプリケーションに関して、SEP+がXFPに取って代わる
  • FTTx トランシーバー
  • ワイヤレスインフラ向け光モジュール

4:データ通信トランシーバー

  • イーサネットトランシーバー
    • ハイパースケールデータセンターが高速イーサネットモジュールの導入を後押し
  • ファイバーチャネルトランシーバー
    • フラッシュシステムの助けにより、ファイバーチャネルの落ち込みは終了
  • 光インターコネクト

付録A:主な財務データ

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目次

This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2021 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high - performance computing (HPC) applications.

Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2015 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting's forecast model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.

LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.

Table of Contents

  • List of Figures and Tables
  • Abstract

Executive Summary

  • Demand for optics remains strong.
  • FTTx and Wireless segments will remain prone to fluctuations.
  • Market growth hinges on the adoption of next generation technologies.
  • Changes in the forecast
  • Wild cards and tripwires

Section 1a: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview

  • Revenue and capex in 2015 impacted by the strong dollar
  • 2016 capex forecast at $178 billion, a decline of 7% year-on-year
  • Chinese operators enter a new era of modest revenue growth and capex cuts
  • Mergers and acquisitions
  • 5G radio set for a staggered rollout
  • Data centers as towers: Are data centers falling out of favor for the telcos?
  • BT's strategy for growing core capacity
  • Telcos put collaboration above rivalry in response to their newest rivals

Section 1b: Service Provider Highlights

  • AT&T
  • BT Group
  • China Mobile
  • China Telecom
  • China Unicom
  • Comcast
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Orange
  • KDDI
  • NTT
  • Softbank
  • Telecom Italia
  • Telefonica
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone

Section 2a: Internet Infrastructure Drivers

  • Internet infrastructure spending reached a new high in 2015
  • Five companies dominated Internet infrastructure spending in 2015
  • Cloud services revenue doubled in 2015
  • Internet companies' cash hoards swell to $365 billion in 2015

Section 2b: Internet Company Highlights

  • Alibaba
  • Alphabet (formerly Google)
  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • Baidu
  • eBay
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Microsoft
  • Oracle
  • PayPal
  • Tencent
  • Twitter
  • Yahoo
  • Things to watch

Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications

  • CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
    • Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds
    • Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps transceivers will coexist, at least for now
  • SONET/SDH transceivers
    • SFP+ is replacing XFP for OC-192 applications
  • FTTx Transceivers
  • Optical modules for wireless infrastructure

Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications.

  • Ethernet Transceivers
    • Hyperscale data centers push adoption of higher-speed Ethernet modules
    • 40GbE
    • 100GbE
    • 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE now part of our forecast
  • Fibre Channel Transceivers
    • Fibre Channel slump ending, aided by flash systems
  • Optical Interconnects

Appendix A: Selected Financial Data

List of Figures and Tables

  • Figure S-1: Global sales of optical components and modules (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure S-2: Sales of optical transceivers and BOSAs used in FTTx and wireless infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure S-3a: Sales of 100G DWDM modulators and coherent receivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure S-3b: Sales of 100G DWDM transponders (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure S-4: Sales of 40GbE optical transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure S-5: Sales of 100GbE Optical Transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Table 1-1: AT&T's four main business units
  • Table 1-2: BT's business units following the integration of EE
  • Figure 2-1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
  • Figure 2-2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E
  • Figure 2-3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
  • Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues reported by major players
  • Figure 3-1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-3: Sales of WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and 200/400G DWDM ports (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-5: Shipments of 100G and 200/400G ports by application (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-6: Shipments of 100G DWDM transponders by type (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-7: 10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Unit Shipments (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-8: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-9: Sales of OC-192 Transceivers by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-10: Comparison between the number of new FTTH subscribers and annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-11: Sales of different types of FTTx transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-12: Mobile connections by technology
  • Figure 3-13: Shipments of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-14: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-15: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Table A-1: Revenue and capex of the top 15 telecom service providers
  • Table A-2: Revenue, Spending*, and Margins of LightCounting's Internet Index companies
  • Table A-3: Quarterly financial data for LightCounting's Internet Index companies
  • Table A-4: Additional quarterly financial data for LightCounting's Internet Index companies
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