Juniper's new Mobile Operator research is specifically designed to provide industry executives with market leading insight, analysis and recommendations into the key issues that threaten to disrupt and transform their industry.
The new study, ‘Future Mobile Operator Business Models: Challenges, Opportunities & Strategies 2018-2022’, assesses and quantifies the nature and scale of the threats facing network operators, with global revenues from core voice and data services expected to fall by more than $50 billion over the next 5 years.
However, the research identifies a series of new revenue opportunities and costs savings which collectively would enable operators to sustain or even increase margins.
It also provides a comparative, heatmap-based assessment of the capabilities and strategies of 15 leading operators across Europe and North America, used to position those operators in Juniper's Mobile Operator Innovation Index.
- Strategic guide to maximising new revenue streams and cost reduction.
- Juniper Mobile Operator Innovation Index; a key player capability and strategy assessment, together with index positioning for 15 mobile operators.
- Heatmap analysis enabling Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators in both developed and developing markets to prioritise their strategic decisions and maximise their revenue potential.
- Benchmark Industry Forecasts for new revenue opportunities, including Carrier Billing, IoT (Internet of Things), A2P Messaging, Mobile Identity and Mobile Commerce
- 1. Which operators are best placed to innovate over the next 5 years?
- 2. How can operators benefit from the introduction of mobile identity services?
- 3. How can operators optimise their networks to capitalise on 5G opportunities?
- 4. How will operator ARPUs and service revenues develop over the next 5 years?
- 5. What strategies should operators employ to maximise their core revenues?
9Pay, ABC, aim, Alcatel-Lucent, ALTBalaji, Amazon, American Tower, Anam Technologies, Apple, AT&T, Axiata Group Berhad, Axon Partners Group, Bango, Bell Canada, BEREC, Bharti Airtel, BICS, Boku, Box TV, BT, BTPN, Canal+, CBS, Cellmania, Centersight, Centili, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Tower, China Unicom, Cinemax, CLX Communications, Crisil, Crown Castle, Dailymotion, Deezer, Deutsche Telekom, Diehl Metering, DIMOCO, DirecTV, dittoTV, DOCOMO Digital, DoteCon, Dropbox, Econet, EE, Ericsson, ESPN, Etisalat, ETSI, Facebook, FCC (Federal Communications Commission), ForgeRock, Fortumo, Fox, Free Press, Gaana, Gemalto, General Motors, Giesecke & Devrient, Globe, Google, Grameenphone, GSMA, Guangzhou Qida Electronic Technology, HBO, Hewlett Packard, HT-Mobile, Huawei, Hutchison Whampoa, Idea Cellular, Indosat, Indus Towers, Inmarsat, Intel, Iusacell, Jaguar Land Rover, KakaoTalk, KDDI, KORE, KPN, La Caixa, Liberty Global, loglevel, Loop Mobile, Mavenir Systems, Mediaproduccion, Mediaset Premium, Microsoft, Mobifone, Mobinil, Morpho, Movistar, Mozilla, MTN, NBC, Netflix, Netsia, Netsize, NextM2M, Nokia, Nomura Research Institute, NTT DoCoMo, Oberthur, OECD, Ofcom, Ooredoo, Open Technology Institute, Orange, OSM (Open Source MANO), PayPal, Ping Identity, Proximus, Reliance Jio, Renault Nissan, Rogers, Safaricom, Samsung, Satelindo, Scania, SES, Showtime, Sigfox, SK Telecom, Sky, Smart, Smartfren, Softbank, Sony, S-Phone, Spotify, Sprint, STARZ, Sun, SuperData, Swisscom, Tata Teleservices, Techem, Telcel, Telecel, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Telenor, Telia, Telkom, Telkomsel, Telstra, TELUS, Three, Three, Tigo, T Mobile, Twitter, Unino, VALID, Verizon, Viber, Vietnamobile, Viettel, VimpelCom, Vinaphone, Virgin Media, VN, Vodacom, Vodafone, Volvo, WeChat, WhatsApp, Wirecard, XL/AXIS, ZTE.
Data & Interactive Forecast
Juniper Research's highly granular interactive Excels enable clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.
This user friendly document allows the purchaser to gain an in-depth understanding of operator revenue streams, both in terms of core (voice and data) revenues and new opportunities from areas such as M2M (machine to machine), direct carrier billing and analytics.
The forecast suite also includes:
- Regional and Sector Analysis tools allowing clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.
- Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 500 datapoints.
Table of Contents
1. New Revenue Opportunities & Operator Index
- 1.2. The New Revenue Opportunity
- Figure & Table 1.1: New Revenue Opportunities for MNOs ($m), Split By Revenue Stream, 2017-2022
- Figure & Table 1.2: Increase in Regional Net Revenues ($m), Split by Stream 2022 v 2017
- Figure 1.3: Increase in MNO Additional Revenue Streams Compared to Decline in Core Revenues, 2017 vs 2022 (%)
- 1.3. Juniper Operator Innovation Index
- Table 2.5: MNO Matrix Assessment Criteria
- Table 1.4: Juniper Operator Positioning Index: Player Scoring
- Figure 1.6: Juniper Operator Innovation Index: Player Positioning
- 1.3.1. Conclusions
- i. Cluster 1: ‘Leading'
- ii. Cluster 2: ‘Aspiring'
- iii. Cluster 3: ‘Developing'
- 1.4. Strategic Options & Recommendations
- 1.4.1. Optimising Existing Revenue Streams
- Table 1.5: Adaptive Strategies for Optimising Existing Revenue Streams
- 1.4.2. Developing New Revenue Streams & Reducing Costs
- Table 1.6: Adaptive Strategies for Developing New Revenue Streams & Reducing Costs
2. The Challenge: A Saturated World
- 2.2. MNO ARPUs are Declining
- 2.2.1. Attributing Factors
- Figure 2.1: Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2005-2017
- 2.2.2. ARPU Baseline Analysis: Developed Markets
- Figure 2.2: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU), Developed Markets 2005-2017
- Figure 2.3: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU, Developing/Emerging Markets 2005-2017
- 2.2.3. Regional ARPU Forecasts
- Figure 2.4: Global Monthly ARPU ($): 2018 & 2022
- 2.3. The Rise of the OTTs
- 2.3.1. Mobile Communications in Transition
- 2.3.2. OTT Messaging Substitution
- Figure 2.5: Leading OTT Messaging Services, Monthly Active Users, December 2017
- Figure 2.6: WhatsApp vs SMS
- i. Regional Variations
- ii. Quantifiable Impact
- 2.3.3. Social Media Substitution
- Figure 2.7: Facebook Mobile Users (m), 2005-2017
- 2.3.4. OTT VoIP Substitution
- i. Quantifying the OTT Effect
- Figure & Table 2.8: The Lost Opportunity: MNO Revenue Loss to OTT mVoIP/IM Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
- Figure & Table 2.9: Operator Billed Revenues vs Revenues ‘Lost' to OTTs ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2018
- 2.3.5. Disrupting the MNO/Consumer Relationship
- 2.4. Regulatory Impact: Pricing Caps
- Figure 2.10: Annual Roaming Revenues ($bn), West European MNOs, 2013-2017
- 2.5. MNO Revenues are Now in Decline
- Figure 2.11: The Fall in MNO Revenues
3. The Challenge: A Data Centric World
- 3.2. Rising Opex: Data Delivery Costs
- 3.2.1. The Rise of the Mobile Internet
- Figure 3.1: Key Smartphone Indicators, 2017
- Figure 3.2: Total Data Traffic Generated by Mobile Handsets, 2017-2021 (PB/annum) Split by Traffic Category
- Figure 3.3: Total Data Traffic Carried Via Cellular Networks (PB/Annum) Split by Originating Device Type 2017-2021
- 3.2.2. More Data, Less Revenue?
- 3.3. Rising Capex: Network Buildout
- 3.3.1. Spectrum Costs: 4G
- Figure 3.4: Comparative Revenue Streams (£m) from Nascent UK 3G (Three UK, 2004-2008) & 4G (EE, 2013-2017) Services
- 3.3.2. Spectrum Costs: 5G
- Figure 3.5: Total Revenues Raised by UK Spectrum Auctions (£bn), 2001 (3G), 2013 (4G) & 2018 (5G)
- 3.3.3. 5G Challenges
- Figure 3.6: Global Connected Devices (m) 2017-2023
- 3.3.4. Expanding Coverage: 3G & 4G
- 3.4. Summary: Flatlining Revenues, Rising Capex, Rising Opex
- Figure 3.8: ‘The Juniper 12': Operator Margins 2010-2017(%)
4. Looking Forward: Monetising Core Services in an All IP Environment
- Figure & Table 3.7: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU & Operator-billed Service Revenues 2017-2023
- 4.1. New Strategies, New Business Models
- 4.2. Strategic Approaches in a 4G & 5G Environment
- 4.2.1. LTE Options for Voice Explored by Operators, but VoLTE Slow to Take Off
- Figure 4.1: VoLTE Users, Year End (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-2018
- 4.3. Business Model Options
- 4.3.1. The Shared Data Plan
- Figure 4.2: Verizon Wireless, More Everything (2014), Verizon Plan (2016) Monthly Data Allowance Charges ($)
- Table 4.3: Verizon Wireless, Monthly Line Charges Per Device ($), 2014 & 2018
- i. Juniper's View
- 4.3.2. The Unlimited Data Option
- i. What is Unlimited Data?
- ii. Juniper's View
- 4.3.3. The Content Bundle
- 4.3.4. The Social Media Bundle
- 4.3.5. Third-party Pays
- i. Juniper's View
- ii. Zero-rating & Net Neutrality
- 4.3.6. A Quad-play World
- i. Carrier OTT: Beyond the Dumb Pipe
- Figure 4.4: AT&T, U-verse Video Customers (m) & Annual Revenues ($bn), 2008-2017
- ii. Sport: A Key Content Battleground?
- Figure 4.5: English Premier League Key Rights/Viewing Figure Statistics
- iii. eSports Offerings
5. Looking Forward: New Networks, New Revenue Streams
- 5.1. Reimagining the Network: Optimisation in a 5G World
- 5.1.1. Delivering a 5G Network for IoT
- i. Solution 1: A Parallel Network
- Figure 5.1: vEPC (virtual Evolved Packet Core) Concept
- Figure 5.2: AT&T Network Virtualisation Percentage, 2015-2017
- ii. Solution 2: NB-IoT (Narrowband IoT)
- Figure 5.3: IoT Network Deployments: NB IoT vs LTE Cat M, April 2018
- Table 5.4: IoT Alternative Release Comparison
- 5.1.2. Network Security
- i. Segmentation
- ii.Optimal MNO Approach
- iii. Prospects for 5G Network Security
- 5.1.3. Network Densification & Sites Access Challenges
- i. UK Status
- ii. Other Countries
- 5.1.4. Backhaul Requirements
- i. Addressing the Latency Challenge: MEC (Mobile Edge Computing)
- 5.1.5. Who Owns the Network Infrastructure?
- i. Third-party Ownership/Management
- Table 5.5: Recent US MNO Tower Deals
- ii. Joint Venture Model
- Figure 5.6: Base Stations Worldwide by Leading Operator, 2017
- iii. Wholly-owned Subsidiary
- 5.2. Reimagining Connectivity: eSIMs
- Table 5.7: Average M2M Device Lifespan by Industry
- Figure 5.8: eSIMs in Service (m) by Industry Vertical, 2017-2022
- i. eSIMs vs Soft SIMs
- ii. Challenges
- 5.3. New Revenue Streams: Identifying A2P Traffic
- 5.3.1. The Challenge
- Figure 5.9: International Grey Route Traffic Process
- Figure 5.10: Direct Connected vs Grey Route A2P Costs
- 5.3.2. The Solution
- 5.4. New Revenue Streams: Monetising IoT
- 5.4.1. The Challenge
- Figure 5.11: Comparative Average Monthly Cellular Data Usage (MB), Selected US Devices, 2017
- 5.4.2. The Opportunity: (Big) Data Monetisation
6. Looking Forward: Leveraging the Billing Relationship
- 6.1. Introduction: Leveraging the Billing Relationship
- 6.1.1. Storefront Deployments are Increasing
- Table 6.1: Carrier Billing Availability by Selected Storefront, 2015-2017
- Table 6.2: Google Play/Apple App Store/Facebook Carrier Billing Availability by Operator, Largest Unbanked Markets, January 2018
- Figure 6.3: Apple Pay Market Statistics, End 2017
- Figure 6.4: The Lost Opportunity: Android/iOS Smartphones without Carrier Billing Options for App Store or Google Play (m), 2017
- 6.2. Carrier Billing Drivers
- Figure 6.5: Banked Penetration by Country, 2015 (%)
- Figure 6.6: Unbanked Adult Population by 8 Key Regions, 2015 (%)
- Figure 6.7: Beyond the Mobile: Selected Connected Devices, Worldwide Installed Base, Year End 2017
- Figure 6.8: Billing Mechanism Conversion Rate Comparison, Low Value Purchases: Credit Card vs Direct Carrier Billing
- 6.3. Direct Carrier Billing Challenges
- Figure 6.9: Selected Markets, Prepaid Users as % of Mobile User Base, 2016
- Figure 6.10: The Carrier Billing Consumer Journey
- Figure 6.11: Juniper Challenge Assessment Matrix, Content Carrier Billing
7. Looking Forward: The Mobile Commerce Opportunity
- 7.1. Why Should MNOs Launch Mobile Money Services?
- 7.1.1. Mobile Wallets Exceed Banked Accounts
- Figure 7.1: Mobile Money Account vs Banking Penetration, Selected Markets, 2017 (%)
- 7.1.2. Evolving the Inclusive Opportunity: Deploying Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services
- Figure 7.2: Mobile Money Deployments (as of October 2016)
- Figure 7.3: Phased Evolution of Mobile Money
- i. Links with Savings
- 7.2. The Revenue Opportunity: Monetising Mobile Money
- 7.3. Developed Markets: Where is the Mobile Money Opportunity for MNOs?
- Figure 7.4: Kenya Market Snapshot, 2017
- Figure 7.11: Global Physical Goods eRetail Transactions 2017, By Payment Mechanism (57.8 billion)
- Figure 7.5: Largest Mobile Wallets by Active User Base (m), End 2017
- 7.3.2. International Money Transfer
- 7.3.3. Securing the Transaction: The Authentication Opportunity
- 7.3.4. GSMA Mobile Connect
- i. Support
- Figure 7.6: Mobile Connect Availability, 2015-2018
- Figure 7.7: Mobile Connect Markets, March 2018
- 7.4. Delivering First Time Identity Inclusivity & Digital Identity
- 7.4.1. First Time Inclusivity
- Figure 7.8: Markets Where Phone Owning Population Exceeds Identified Population (m), 2017