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モバイル通信事業者のビジネスモデル:課題、市場機会および戦略

Mobile Operator Business Models: Challenges, Opportunities & Strategies 2014-2019

発行 Juniper Research 商品コード 200278
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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モバイル通信事業者のビジネスモデル:課題、市場機会および戦略 Mobile Operator Business Models: Challenges, Opportunities & Strategies 2014-2019
出版日: 2014年10月22日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

モバイルオペレーターはサービス収益の減少とネットワークコストの上昇という二つの問題に直面しているため、新たな収益ストリームの最大化とコスト削減に取り組む必要があります。M2M、モバイルマネー、ダイレクトキャリアビリングおよび「ビッグデータ」分析といった領域における今後5年間の収益機会は660億米ドル以上となる可能性があります。

当レポートでは、MNOの直面している深刻な課題について調査分析し、将来に向けて十分な利益を維持するために必要な各種戦略をまとめ、お届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 課題:飽和する世界

  • イントロダクション
  • 飽和する世界
  • MNOのARPUの下落
  • OTTの台頭
  • MNO収益の下落

第2章 課題:データ中心の世界

  • イントロダクション
  • CAPEXの上昇:ネットワークの構築
  • サマリー:収益の横ばい、Capexの増加、Opexの増加

第3章 課題:規制因子

  • イントロダクション
  • グリーンインペラティブ(環境関連の義務)
  • 価格コントロール
  • 追加課税
  • ネット中立性の課題

第4章 回路交換方式からALL-IPネットワークへ

  • 新しい戦略、新しいビジネスモデル
  • 4G環境における戦略的アプローチ
  • 4G環境におけるコアサービスの収益化
  • アフターセールスサービス
  • 結論:課題の差別化

第5章 新しい収益ストリーム:ビリング関係

  • イントロダクション
  • ダイレクトキャリアビリングの促進因子
  • ダイレクトキャリアビリングの課題

第6章 新しい収益ストリーム:クラウド・ビッグデータ

  • クラウドへの転換
  • ビッグデータの機会
  • ビッグデータの収益化

第7章 新しい収益ストリーム:モバイルマネー

  • MNOはなぜモバイルマネーサービスを開始すべきか
  • モバイルマネー送金サービスの収益化
  • 金融サービスイネーブラー/プロバイダーとしてのオペレーター
  • NFC:MNOの時期は過ぎた
  • モバイルマネー機会の評価

第8章 新しい収益ストリーム:M2M & 接続

  • モバイルM2Mの定義
  • M2Mの収益モデル
  • コネクテッドカー分野におけるMNOの機会
  • スマートホーム分野におけるMNOの機会
  • MNO M2M機会の規模

第9章 適応戦略:ネットワークの負担の軽減

  • 課題の規模の評価:オフロードソリューション
  • ネットワークの最適化
  • 基地局のOPEXへの対応
  • ネットワークのグリーン化:OPEXの削減と持続可能性への取り組み

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目次

Juniper's market leading research provides mobile operators, faced by the twin problems of decreasing service revenues and rising network costs, with an essential strategic guide to maximising new revenue streams and cost reduction.

Providing an authoritative, objective assessment of operator challenges and opportunities, this research is a must-have strategic guide for industry professionals.

Key Features

  • Strategic guide to maximising new revenue streams and cost reduction.
  • Assesses and quantifies the nature and scale of the threats facing network operators.
  • Highlights a host of alternative pricing and bundling options through which players can better monetise their core voice and data offerings.
  • Features a heat map analysis enabling Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators in both developed and developing markets to prioritise their strategic decisions and maximise their revenue potential.
  • Invaluable insights from interviews with the leading players across the mobile industry, including Three UK, Amdocs, Bango, Gemalto and Ruckus Wireless.

Key Questions

  • 1.How can MNOs leverage their existing assets to create new revenue opportunities?
  • 2.How will operator ARPUs and service revenues develop over the next 5 years?
  • 3.What strategies should MNOs adopt to optimise their existing revenue streams?
  • 4.How can MNOs address the opex and capacity issues associated with high levels of data traffic?
  • 5.Which operators have successfully remodelled their business to adapt to the evolving mobile ecosystem?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Amdocs, Bango, Gemalto, Ruckus Wireless, Three UK.

Case Studied: AT&T, China Mobile.

Referenced: Accenture, Acision, Air Kenya, Alcatel-Lucent, Amazon, Antel, Apple, Bakinder, Banco Sabadell, Banglalink, BBVA, BEREC (Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communication), Bharti Airtel, BlackBerry, Boku, Bouygues Telecom, BT, Capital One, CCK, Cellmania, China Mobile, China Unicom, Chunghwa Telecom, Cinterion, Cisco, Citrix, CMT Concirrus, Danal, Deezer Mobile, Deloitte, Demos, Deutsche Telekom, Dialogue, DIMOCO, Disney, EA, EE, Equity Bank, Etisalat, ETNO, ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute), Facebook, FATF (Financial Action Task Force), Flash Networks, Fonix, France Telecom, Giesecke & Devrient, Generali Seguros, Globe, Google, GSA, GSMA, Hughes Telematics, Hulu, Hyundai, ICASA, Idea Cellular, IMI, Impulse, Interdnestrcom, ITU, Jasper Wireless, KakaoTalk, KDDI, Kenya Airways, Kik Messenger, Kore Telematics, KPN, La Caixa, LightSquared, LINE, LOVEFiLM, MasterCard, Masternaut, MetroPCS, Microsoft, Mixi, Mozilla, MTN, Naivas, NatWest Bank, Netflix, Net-M, Neul, Nimbuzz, Nokia, Novarra, NTT DoCoMo, Numerex, O2, Oberthur, Ofcom, Onstar, OpenMarket, Openwave Mobility, Oracle, Orange, Orca, Oxygen8, Pandora, Payforit, PayPal, Proxama, Rabobank, Redtail Telematics, Reliance, Rogers, Roku, Safaricom, Samsung, Sandvine, SAP, SFR, Siemens, Sierra Wireless, SimplyTapp, SK Telecom, Sky, SoftBank, SoftCard, Sparkassen, Spectranet, Spotify, Sprint, STC, Syniverse, Syntonic Wireless, Tango, Tata, Tele2, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Telenet, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Telit, Telma, Telstra, Tencent, textPlus, TiVo, Towers Watson, Transatel, Trilliant, Twitter, txtNation, Uchumi, UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones, Uninor, Velti, Veoo, Verizon Wireless, Viber, Vimpelcom, Virgin Media, Visa, Vodafone, WeChat, Western Union, Weve, WhatsApp, WIND, XL Axiata, YouTube, Zain, Zalo.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive excels enable clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.

This user friendly document allows the purchaser to gain an in-depth understanding of operator revenue streams, both in terms of core (voice and data) revenues and new opportunities from areas such as M2M (machine to machine), direct carrier billing and analytics.

Forecast suite also includes:

  • Regional & Sector Analysis tools allowing clients to compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 500 datapoints.

Table of Contents

1. The Challenge: A Saturated World

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 A Saturated World
    • Figure & Table 1.1: Global Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2003-2013
    • Table 1.2: Historical Mobile Penetration Rates Split by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013
    • Table 1.3: Forecast Mobile Penetration Rates Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
    • Figure & Table 1.4: Global Mobile Active SIM Cards (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
  • 1.3 MNO ARPUs are Declining
    • 1.3.1 Attributing Factors
    • Figure & Table 1.5: Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2005-2013
    • 1.3.2 ARPU Baseline Analysis: Developed Markets
    • Figure 1.6: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU, Developed Markets 2005-2013
    • 1.3.3 ARPU Baseline Analysis: Developing/Emerging Markets
    • Figure 1.7: Baseline Analysis of Historic ARPU, Developing/Emerging Markets 2005-2013
    • 1.3.4 Regional ARPU Forecasts
    • Figure & Table 1.8: Mobile ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
  • 1.4 The Rise of the OTTs
    • 1.4.1 Mobile Communications in Transition
    • Figure 1.9: Evolution of Mobile Personal Communications
    • 1.4.2 OTT Messaging Substitution
    • Table 1.10: Leading Mobile IM Service Users Bases (Active/Registered) and Traffic Levels, 2013-2014
    • i. Regional Variations
    • Figure 1.11: Most Popular IM Apps in a Selection of Countries, December 2013
    • ii. Quantifiable Impact
    • Table 1.12: Average SMS Sent Per User Per Month, Selected Operators, 2011- 2013
    • 1.4.3 Social Media Substitution
    • Figure 1.13: Facebook Mobile Users (m), 2008-H1 2014
    • 1.4.4 OTT VoIP Substitution
    • 1.4.5 The Impact on MNO Voice Revenues
    • Figure 1.14: Baseline Analysis of Operator-billed Voice Revenues, Selected Markets, 2008-2013
    • 1.4.6 Quantifying the OTT Effect
    • Figure & Table 1.15: The Lost Opportunity: MNO Revenue Loss to OTT mVoIP/IM Services ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2014
  • 1.5 MNO Revenues are Now in Decline
    • Figure & Table 1.16: Operator-billed Service Revenues ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions 2005-2013
    • Figure & Table 1.17: Operator-billed Service Revenues ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019

2. The Challenge: A Data-centric World

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Rising Opex: Data Delivery Costs
    • 2.2.1 The Rise of the Mobile Internet
    • Figure & Table 2.1: Mobile Internet User Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009- 2013
    • 2.2.2 The Rise in Data Traffic
    • Figure & Table 2.2: Total Data Traffic per Annum from Mobile Handsets (PB) Split by 7 Data Categories 2013-2017
    • Figure & Table 2.3: Total Data Traffic Per Annum (PB) Carried Via Cellular Networks Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
    • 2.2.3 Cost Implications of the Data Surge
    • Figure 2.4: Global Operator-Billed Service Revenues versus Delivery Costs of Unoptimised Data ($bn) 2013 & 2018
  • 2.3 Rising Capex: Network Buildout
    • 2.3.1 Spectrum Costs
    • Figure 2.5: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2014
      • i. Indian Spectrum Auction
      • Figure 2.6: Bharti Airtel: Cumulative 3G Data Revenues ($m) vs Percentage of 3G Licence Fee Recouped (%), 2011-2014
      • Figure 2.7: Bharti Airtel: Cumulative 3G Data Revenues ($m) Historic and Forecast, 2011-2017
      • ii. Refarming Spectrum
    • 2.3.2 Infrastructure Costs
  • 2.4 Summary: Flatlining Revenues, Rising Capex, Rising Opex
    • Figure & Table 2.8: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU & Operator-Billed Revenues 2013-2019
    • Figure & Table 2.9: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/Opex ($bn) 2013- 2018

3. The Challenge: Regulatory Factors

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 The Green Imperative
    • 3.2.1 Developing Markets
    • Figure 3.1: Global WTI Crude Oil Price Per Barrel ($), 2007-2014
    • 3.2.2 Developed Markets
  • 3.3 Pricing Controls
    • Figure & Table 3.2: EU Average SMS Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q3 2008-Q2 2013
    • Figure & Table 3.3: EU Average Prices per MB of Roaming Data (€) Split Retail & Wholesale Q3 2008-Q3 2013
    • Table 3.4: EU Retail and Wholesale Roaming Price Caps (€) 2012-2014
    • 3.3.1 Mobile Termination Rate Cuts
    • Figure 3.5: Vodafone, Retail Price Per Minute, Selected Markets, 2008-2013 (YE March)
  • 3.4 Additional Taxation
    • 3.4.1 Service Taxation
    • 3.4.2 Licence Fee Increases
    • Table 3.6: Current and Proposed Total Annual Licence Fees for UK 900MHz & 1800MHz Spectrum, August 2014 (£/$m)
  • 3.5 The Net Neutrality Issue

4. From Circuit Switched to All IP Networks

  • 4.1 New Strategies, New Business Models
  • 4.2 Strategic Approaches in a 4G Environment
    • 4.2.1 LTE Options for Voice Explored by Operators but VoLTE Slow to Take Off
      • i. MNOs Embrace OTT, Creating Carrier OTT Plays
      • ii. New Service Propositions to Emerge from OTT/ MNO Partnerships
      • iii. Regulatory Regimes Level the Playing field for OTT Providers
      • iv. OTT Opens the Door to New Business Models and Fixed Line Players
      • v. Revenue Summary
      • Figure & Table 4.1: Redressing the Balance: MNO OTT mVoIP Opportunity ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2018
  • 4.3 Monetising Core Services in a 4G Environment
    • 4.3.1 The Shared Data Plan
    • Table 4.2: Verizon Wireless, More Everything Monthly Line Charges, August 2014
    • Table 4.3: Verizon Wireless, More Everything Monthly Data Allowance Charges, August 2014
      • i. Prognosis
      • Figure 4.4: AT&T Mobile Share Accounts * Connections (m), 2013-2014
      • ii. Juniper's View:
    • 4.3.2 The Unlimited Data Option
      • i. What is unlimited data?
      • ii. Prognosis
    • 4.3.3 The Content Bundle
      • i. Prognosis
    • 4.3.4 The Social Media Bundle
    • Table 4.5: Approximate Data Usage, Selected Mobile Applications
      • i. Prognosis
    • 4.3.5 Third Party Pays
      • i. Prognosis
  • 4.4 After Sales Service
    • 4.4.1 Enhancing Customer Relationship Management
  • 4.5 Conclusion: The Differentiation Challenge
    • Figure 4.6: Possible Core Service Differentiation Strategies, Developed Markets

5. New Revenue Streams: the Billing Relationship

  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 The Drivers of Direct Carrier Billing
    • 5.2.1 Monetising the Unbanked and Underbanked
    • 5.2.2 Monetising Younger Demographics
    • 5.2.3 Direct Carrier Billing is Optimal for Impulse Purchases
    • Figure 5.1: Percentage of BlackBerry Users that Prefer Carrier Billing if the Option is Available
    • 5.2.4 High Conversion Rates
    • Figure 5.2: Billing Mechanism Conversion Rate Comparison, Low Value Purchases: Credit Card vs Direct Carrier Billing
    • 5.2.5 Uplift in Transaction Volumes and Values
    • 5.2.6 Direct Carrier Billing Enables MNOs to Retain Foothold in Content Value Chain
  • 5.3 The Challenges of Direct Carrier Billing
    • 5.3.1 Revenue Share
    • 5.3.2 Integration Issues
    • Table 5.3: Selected OTT Storefronts, Operator Billing Availability 2012-2014
    • 5.3.3 Direct Carrier Billing is Less Suited to Higher Value Transactions in Prepaid-centric Markets
    • Table 5.4: Selected Markets, Prepaid Users as % of Mobile User Base, 2013
    • 5.3.4 Bill Shock
    • 5.3.5 Wi-Fi Payments
    • 5.3.6 Local Regulation

6. New Revenue Streams: Cloud & Big Data

  • 6.1 The Transition to Cloud
    • 6.1.1 Monetising Cloud Traffic
    • 6.1.2 Leveraging the pipe
    • 6.1.3 Rethinking IT strategy
  • 6.2 The Big Data Opportunity
    • 6.2.1 The Challenge for MNOs
    • 6.2.2 The Challenge of Customer Analytics
    • 6.2.3 The Monetisation of Customer Information
      • i. Monetisation with Third-parties
      • ii. Case Study: Verizon Precision Market Insight - Analytics for Third-Party Research
    • 6.2.4 The Privacy Challenge
  • 6.3 Monetising Big Data
    • Figure & Table 6.1: The MNO Incremental Revenue Opportunity ($m) from Analytics, Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

7. New Revenue Streams: Mobile Money

  • 7.1 Why Should MNOs Launch Mobile Money Services?
    • 7.1.1 Barriers to Co-operation: The Banks' Perception
  • 7.2 Monetising Mobile Money Transfer Services
    • 7.2.1 Setting the Trend: M-PESA
    • Figure & Table 7.1: Safaricom Data Revenues (KES bn) Split by Broadband, MPESA & SMS 2009-2014
      • i. Service Developments
    • 7.2.2 Service Regulation
      • i. Key Criteria for Success
  • 7.3 The Operator as Financial Service Enabler/Provider
  • 7.4 NFC: The MNO Window Has Passed
    • 7.4.1 SIM-based SE Loses Out to HCE-based Solutions
    • 7.4.2 Apple Pay Further Erodes MNO Opportunity
  • 7.5 Assessing the Mobile Money Opportunity
    • Figure & Table 7.2: MNO Mobile Money Revenue Opportunity ($m) Split by Banking, Transfers & Remittances, NFC & Carrier Billing 2014-2018

8. New Revenue Streams: M2M & Connectivity

  • 8.1 Defining Mobile M2M
    • Figure 8.1: The Player Value Chain
  • 8.2 M2M Revenue Models
    • Figure 8.2: M2M Revenue Models
    • 8.2.1 MNO M2M Drivers
    • i. Applications Beginning to Require Higher Bandwidth
    • 8.2.2 White Space Spectrum to offer new Possibilities
  • 8.3 MNO Opportunities in the Connected Car Space
    • Figure 8.3: Selected MNO Connected Car Initiatives
  • 8.4 MNO Opportunities in the Smart Home Space
    • 8.4.1 Strategic Opportunities for MNOs
      • i. The Road-Runner Problem: Collaboration is the Solution
      • ii. Case Study: AT&T - Dumb Pipe to Smart Pipe
      • iii. Subscription: the Optimal Smart Home Business Model for MNOs?
  • 8.5 Sizing the MNO M2M Opportunity
    • Figure & Table 8.4: Operator M2M Opportunity: Annual Connectivity & Enablement Revenues 2013-2018

9. Adaptive Strategies: Taking the Network Strain

  • 9.1 Introduction
  • 9.2 Assessing the Scale of the Challenge: Offload Solutions
    • 9.2.1 Established Offload Solutions: Wi-Fi & Small Cells
    • Figure & Table 9.1: Data Traffic (PB/Annum) Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets, 2013-2017
      • i. Wi-Fi
      • ii. Small Cells and Femtocells
  • 9.3 Network Optimisation
    • 9.3.1 New Opportunies: NFV
    • Figure 9.2: ETSI Vision for NFV
  • 9.4 Addressing Base Station Opex
    • 9.4.1 Addressing Site Lease Costs - Network Sharing
      • i. Active and Passive RAN sharing
    • Figure 9.3: Active vs Passive RAN Sharing Infrastructure Models
    • 9.4.2 Improving the Efficiencies in the Base Station
  • 9.5 Greening the Network: Reducing Opex & Meeting Sustainability Commitments
    • 9.5.1 China Mobile: Analysis.
    • Figure & Table 9.4: China Mobile, Base Stations Powered by Sustainable Energy 2008-2013
    • Figure & Table 9.5: Base Line Analysis of China Mobile Subscriber Growth vs CO2 Emissions and Energy Usage, 2007-2013
    • 9.5.2 Transitioning to Green Networks: the Environmental & Financial Imperative
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