Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041
IDTechEx master electric vehicle report covering BEV, PHEV & FCEV two-wheelers, cars, vans, trucks, buses, boats, ships, and aircraft.
"Electric vehicles across land, sea and air will rise to a market of $2.3 trillion by 2041."
'Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041' puts IDTechEx's core electric vehicle forecasts in one place: unit sales, battery demand, market sizing and more. Each chapter summarises the main drivers, trends and forecasts for a vehicle subsegment (two-wheelers, cars, vans / LCV, trucks, buses, leisure boats, commercial short and deep-sea ships, manned aircraft) or enabling technology (Li-ion batteries, electric motors).
By providing a clearer understanding of relative market sizes, battery demand and the fastest-growing electric vehicle markets beyond cars, our aim is to give those in the industry the knowledge to make more informed decisions on their investments and focus into the electric vehicle industry. We summarise each chapter below.
Electric Two-wheelers (E2W)
While in the US and Europe the primary form of urban mobility is the car, in east Asia the dominant form of transportation is the motorcycle, which is much cheaper to own and run. Often, motorcycles are not held to equivalent emissions standards as cars, and are more highly polluting. In the past decade, India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 (SIAM) in a global market of 57 million (Marklines). It is no coincidence that India has seven out of the world's top ten most polluting cities. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it is the electrification of two-wheelers and micro-mobility, not cars, which is the focus.
Once derided as toys, today electric cars with barely 15 years of development offer cutting-edge automotive technology and performance, from sub 2.5 second 0-60mph acceleration, to autonomous driving functionality and solar bodywork. Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are the endgame: zero emissions at point of use and the focus of automotive startups (and China). On the other hand, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) provide a short / mid-term solution, soothing initial fears of range anxiety; PHEVs tend to be the focus of incumbent automakers but are increasingly losing share to BEVs. Due to the sheer volume of vehicle sales and their relatively large battery sizes per vehicle, cars dominate battery demand and unit sales by 2041.
Electric Vans / Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)
Today the electric LCV market is at a nascent stage: it is much smaller than the electric car market and few models are available for purchase. The next few years will see companies conducting large pilot projects to establish that eLCVs meet their operational range, load capacity, payload and reliability requirements. As experience and trust in electric technology grows, widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCVs will begin. Electrification is also driven by increasing demand for freight delivery as the retail industry grows its online sales platforms, and consumers gradually abandon private car ownership for mobility as a service (MaaS) platforms.
Along with the rest of the automotive sector, the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) truck market is evolving. Governments around the world, recognising the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions, are taking decisive action, that will, in the coming decades, drive vehicle manufacturers to zero on-road exhaust emission powertrain solutions. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel powered combustion engine are numbered.
China has led the world in bus electrification and will continue to dominate sales volume for the foreseeable future. However, as a result of the subsidy phase-outs and the increasing saturation of electric buses in Tier 1 cities, IDTechEx project that electric bus sales in China will stabilise at a lower level than during the subsidy boom years, after the biggest decline yet in 2020 from the covid-19 pandemic. Future growth will be sourced from countries outside of China, in Europe and south-east Asia.
Electric Boats and Ships
Across all electric vehicle sectors tracked by IDTechEx over land, sea and air, we predominantly foresee a transition partly or completely to a traction battery over the next two decades. The case is not so simple for the marine sector: due to the sheer scale of the power, energy and distance requirements for many vessels, reducing maritime emissions will require solutions varying from batteries and fuel cells to premium fuels, scrubbers and slow-steaming.
Today, batteries have mainly emerged in leisure boating, ferries and short-sea vessels, where they have enjoyed steady uptake due to small vessel sizes or well-defined cyclical routes (that allow for opportunity charging). In larger deep-sea vessels, uptake is slow, but unprecedented global emissions regulations are driving change, and shortages of traditional solutions on the horizon are creating new opportunities for energy storage start-ups in the arena.
Manned Electric Aircraft
There will be some dramatic winners and losers in electric aerospace. The report explores the story of three options for new manned electrically-driven aircraft. Small fixed-wing pure-electric is trading now. Larger hybrid and pure electric aircraft up to regional aircraft will be with us within ten years: a huge addressable market. The wild card is vertical-takeoff pure-electric aircraft as air taxis (eVTOL) and personal aircraft.
The report identifies and explains trends in Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles. For example, nickel content is increasing while cobalt content is decreasing: why is this important for automakers and the overall sustainability of the industry? We also provide historic market data on the Li-ion technology mix based on our database of electric cars in top auto markets: China has phased-out LFP from over half its car market to less than 2% today; why will Tesla contradict this and adopt LFP for Model 3 sales in China?
Electric Traction Motors
All electric motors have the same purpose of converting electrical energy to mechanical energy, but there are many types of motors that derive their names from their construction, principles of operation, or even from the control technique employed on them. In this report we explore why automakers are converging on permanent magnet motors, multiple motors, provide a benchmarking analysis of the different motor types and, finally, an outlook for how we expect the motor market to evolve over the next ten years.
Summary of Forecasts
Global forecasts are provided for each vehicle subsegment up to 2041, with historic data.
- Total Forecast: Electric vehicles Land, Sea, Air 2015-2041 (units, TWh, $ Trillion)
- Cars BEV, PHEV, FCEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (units)
- Cars BEV + PHEV 2016-2041 (as a % of Global Car Market, units, GWh, $ billion)
- Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Light Commercial Vehicles BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Medium-duty Truck BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Heavy-duty Truck BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Bus BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Electric Boat & Ship Leisure Boat, Short-sea, Deep-sea 2015-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
- Manned Electric Aircraft Vertical TOL, Conventional TOL, short-range, long-range, BEV, HEV 2020-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1.1. IDTechEx Electric Vehicle Master Report
- 1.2. Electric Vehicle Terms
- 1.3. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Unit Sales 2015-2041
- 1.4. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Battery Demand 2015-2041 (TWh)
- 1.5. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Market Value 2015-2041 ($ trillion)
- 1.6. Global Car Sales by Powertrain: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
- 1.7. Li-ion Technology Outlook Commentary
- 1.8. Individual Reports
- 2.1. Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
- 2.2. Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
- 2.3. Electric Vehicles: Typical Specs
- 2.4. What is a Li-ion battery?
- 2.5. The Battery Trilemma
- 2.6. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
- 2.7. What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
- 2.8. What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
- 2.9. Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
- 2.10. Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
- 2.11. Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
- 2.12. Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
- 2.13. Battery Wish List
- 2.14. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
3. ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS (E2W)
- 3.1. The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
- 3.2. Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
- 3.3. Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
- 3.4. Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
- 3.5. Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China
- 3.6. China: The Party's Over
- 3.7. E2W Bans in China
- 3.8. India: High Pollution and Oil Dependence
- 3.9. India: Transportation Diversity
- 3.10. Mobility Trends in India
- 3.11. India: Historic E2W Market Growth
- 3.12. India: Flawed Electric Vehicle Policy
- 3.13. FAME in FY19: Low-speed Impact
- 3.14. Electric Two-wheelers Over 4kW
- 3.15. Electric Motorcycle Survey
- 3.16. Electric Motorcycle Performance
- 3.17. Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
- 3.18. Custom Components
- 3.19. Where the Value is in 2020, Where it Will be in 2041
- 3.20. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (two-wheelers, millions)
- 3.21. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 3.22. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 ($ billion)
4. ELECTRIC CARS
- 4.1. Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
- 4.2. Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car'
- 4.3. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: % of Global Car Market
- 4.4. BEV + PHEV Cars 2020-2041: Market Size ($ trillion)
- 4.5. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: Battery Demand (GWh)
- 4.6. Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
- 4.7. Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density Trends
- 4.8. China, Europe, US, RoW Commentary
- 4.9. How Have Electric Cars Fared in 2020?
- 4.10. Li-ion Technology Outlook Discussion
- 4.11. Electric Car Forecast: Covid-19 Impact
- 4.12. BEV, PHEV, FCEV, 48V MH, 48V FH Cars 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
- 4.13. China EV policy: 2019-2022
- 4.14. Europe: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
- 4.15. Europe Emissions Standards
- 4.16. US : Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
- 4.17. Automaker Progress Towards Tax Credits
- 4.18. Comparison of Popular BEV Models
- 4.19. FCEV Car: Models Overview
- 4.20. Challenges for Fuel Cells
- 4.21. Public Charging
- 4.22. Infrastructure Costs
- 4.23. Fuel Cell Charging Infrastructure in the US
- 4.24. Fuel Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, internal-combustion
5. ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (ELCV)
- 5.1. Introduction
- 5.2. LCV Definition
- 5.3. TCO Advantage
- 5.4. Electric and Diesel LCV Cost Parity
- 5.5. eLCV Market Drivers
- 5.6. Regional Summary
- 5.7. Electric LCV Market Penetration 2017-2041
- 5.8. Electric LCV Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV and FCEV)
- 5.9. Electric LCV Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
- 5.10. Electric LCV Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
6. ELECTRIC TRUCKS
- 6.1. Electric Trucks: Drivers and Barriers
- 6.2. Road Freight Market
- 6.3. Global CO2 Road Freight Emissions
- 6.4. Truck Makers in Europe
- 6.5. Truck Makers in the US
- 6.6. Truck Makers in China
- 6.7. Range of MDT & HDT
- 6.8. Heavy-duty: BEV or Fuel Cell?
- 6.9. MW Charging Difficulty for BEVs
- 6.10. MD & HD Truck Market Penetration 2017-2041
- 6.11. MD & HD Truck Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
- 6.12. Electric MD & HD Truck Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
- 6.13. Electric MD & HD Truck Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
7. ELECTRIC BUSES
- 7.1. Electric Bus Definition
- 7.2. Why Adopt Buses?
- 7.3. Why Adopt Electric Buses?
- 7.4. Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
- 7.5. Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles
- 7.6. Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART)
- 7.7. Historic Electric Bus Sales by Region
- 7.8. Plug-in Hybrids in China and Europe
- 7.9. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
- 7.10. Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends
- 7.11. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
- 7.12. Overview of 21 Country Targets
- 7.13. Expectation of Lower Up-front Price to 2030
- 7.14. Electric Bus Sales 2015-2041 (Thousands)
- 7.15. Electric Bus Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 7.16. Electric Bus Market Value 2015-2041 ($ billion)
8. ELECTRIC BOATS & SHIPS
- 8.1. Electric Boats and Ships: A Long History?
- 8.2. Shipping Emissions
- 8.3. Emissions Control World: Sulphur
- 8.4. Emission Control Areas in 2020
- 8.5. CO2 Emissions
- 8.6. Regulatory Developments Timeline
- 8.7. Solutions to Emissions Regulation
- 8.8. Why Electrification?
- 8.9. Summary of Maritime Sectors
- 8.10. Historic Market Growth and 2020-21 Pipeline
- 8.11. Leading Maritime Battery Vendor
- 8.12. Product Line-up
- 8.13. Covid-19: Delays, not Cancellations
- 8.14. Covid-19: OSVs
- 8.15. Covid-19: Cruise Ships
- 8.16. Fuel Prices
- 8.17. Competing Solutions
- 8.18. Leisure Boating: Inboards & Outboards
- 8.19. Powerful Outboards Undermining Inboards
- 8.20. Outboard Emissions
- 8.21. Outboard Pollution Ignored
- 8.22. Electric Boat & Ship Sales 2015-2041
- 8.23. Electric Boat & Ship Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 8.24. Electric Boat & Ship Market Value 2015-2041 ($ Billion)
9. ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT
- 9.1. Introduction
- 9.2. Summary of Drivers and Restraints
- 9.3. Drivers for Electric Aircraft
- 9.4. Challenges
- 9.5. More Electric Aircraft
- 9.6. Categorisation of Manned Electric Aircraft
- 9.7. Model analysis - anticipated range
- 9.8. Current short and medium-range addressable market
- 9.9. Current long-range addressable market
- 9.10. List of some key players and models by categorisation
- 9.11. Regulatory barriers and legislative drivers
- 9.12. Drones: Widening Uses and Types
- 9.13. Large expenditure on high altitude drones
- 9.14. Electric Aircraft Market Forecast
10. ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
- 10.1. Li-ion Batteries
- 10.1.1. What is a Li-ion battery?
- 10.1.2. The Battery Trilemma
- 10.1.3. Electrochemistry Definitions
- 10.1.4. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
- 10.1.5. Battery Wish List
- 10.1.6. More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
- 10.1.7. NMC: from 111 to 811
- 10.1.8. Cobalt: Price Volatility
- 10.1.9. Cathode Performance Comparison
- 10.1.10. EV Models with NMC 811
- 10.1.11. 811 Commercialisation Examples
- 10.1.12. Commercial Anodes: Graphite
- 10.1.13. The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
- 10.1.14. The Reality of Silicon
- 10.1.15. Silicon: Incremental Steps
- 10.1.16. What is in a Cell?
- 10.1.17. Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
- 10.1.18. Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
- 10.1.19. Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
- 10.1.20. Cell Geometry Choices: Reason or Random?
- 10.1.21. What is NCMA?
- 10.1.22. Historic Li-ion Technology Mix, 2015-2019 (Plug-in Cars)
- 10.1.23. Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
- 10.1.24. Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density Trends
- 10.1.25. LFP: Second Coming?
- 10.1.26. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
- 10.1.27. Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
- 10.1.28. Problems with Batteries
- 10.1.29. Hyundai Kona Takes out a Roof in Canada
- 10.1.30. Battery Reduction
- 10.2. Electric Traction Motors
- 10.2.1. Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
- 10.2.2. Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
- 10.2.3. BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
- 10.2.4. BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.2.5. Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
- 10.2.6. PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
- 10.2.7. PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.2.8. Differences Between PMSM and BLDC
- 10.2.9. Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle
- 10.2.10. WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.2.11. WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
- 10.2.12. AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle
- 10.2.13. AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
- 10.2.14. AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.2.15. AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages
- 10.2.16. Reluctance Motors
- 10.2.17. Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
- 10.2.18. Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
- 10.2.19. Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.2.20. Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
- 10.2.21. PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
- 10.3. Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results
- 10.3.1. Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
- 10.3.2. Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
- 10.3.3. Motor Efficiency Comparison
- 10.3.4. Magnet Price Increase?
- 10.3.5. Multiple Motors: Explained
- 10.3.6. Lucid Motors: Dual PMSM?
- 10.3.7. Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
- 10.3.8. Electric Traction Motor Technology Forecast 2020-2030
- 11.1. Forecast Assumptions
- 11.2. FAQ on the Forecasts
- 11.3. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air 2015-2041
- 11.4. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Battery Demand 2015-2041 (TWh)
- 11.5. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Market Value 2015-2041 ($ trillion)
- 11.6. BEV, PHEV, FCEV, 48V MH, 48V FH Cars 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
- 11.7. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (two-wheelers, millions)
- 11.8. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 11.9. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 ($ billion)
- 11.10. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: % of Global Car Market
- 11.11. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: Battery Demand (GWh)
- 11.12. Electric LCV Market Penetration 2017-2041
- 11.13. Electric LCV Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV and FCEV)
- 11.14. Electric LCV Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
- 11.15. Electric LCV Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
- 11.16. MD & HD Truck Market Penetration 2017-2041
- 11.17. MD & HD Truck Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
- 11.18. Electric MD & HD Truck Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
- 11.19. Electric MD & HD Truck Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
- 11.20. Electric Bus Sales 2015-2041 (Thousands)
- 11.21. Electric Bus Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 11.22. Electric Bus Market Value 2015-2041 ($ billion)
- 11.23. Electric Boat & Ship Sales 2015-2041
- 11.24. Electric Boat & Ship Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
- 11.25. Electric Boat & Ship Market Value 2015-2041 ($ Billion)
- 11.26. Electric Aircraft Market Forecast 2020-2041