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電気・ハイブリッド・燃料電池バスの世界市場:2021-2040年

Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021-2040

出版日: | 発行: IDTechEx Ltd. | ページ情報: 英文 239 Slides | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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電気・ハイブリッド・燃料電池バスの世界市場:2021-2040年
出版日: 2020年06月15日
発行: IDTechEx Ltd.
ページ情報: 英文 239 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

バッテリー式電気バスの市場は2030年には250億米ドルの市場に成長すると予測されています。バス市場は急速に進化しており、各地の都市が大気汚染改善への必要性に迫られ、各国政府が気候変動に対処する取り組みを行う状況から、排出ゼロの都市バスソリューションが推進されています。今後の10年においては、都市を市民の健康を守るゼロエミッションゾーンとするため、ゼロ排出以外の車両の購入はますます拒まれるようになるでしょう。地域別では、中国が世界をリードしており、この傾向は今後20年に渡って続く見通しです。

当レポートでは、世界の電気・ハイブリッド・燃料電池バスの市場を調査し、市場の定義と概要、主要地域市場の現況、技術および技術開発の動向、各種区分別の市場規模の推移・予測、主要企業の取り組み・プロファイル、将来の展望などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 地域分析

  • 中国の電気輸送バス・コーチ・シャトル
  • インドのトランジットバス・コーチ・シャトル
  • ラテンアメリカのトランジットバス・コーチ・シャトル
  • 北米のトランジットバス・コーチ・シャトル
  • 欧州のトランジットバス・コーチ・シャトル

第4章 スクールバス

  • 北米市場の概要
  • 自動運転の必要性:ドライバーの不足・コストの増大
  • 米国のスクールバスの例
  • 中国:大きな可能性を秘める
  • スクールバス:米国・中国の比較
  • V2Gのトライアル・ローンチ・イニシアチブ
  • 米国の主要サプライヤー

第5章 BUSWORLDから学ぶ教訓

第6章 技術動向

第7章 企業プロファイル:自動シャトルバス

  • Navya
  • AUTONOM CAB
  • EasyMile
  • EZ10・TractEasy
  • EZFleet - Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
  • 2getthere
  • Baidu Apolong
  • Apolong sensor solution
  • May Mobility
  • Local Motors
  • Sensible
  • GACHA
  • Ohmio Automation
  • Yutong

第8章 将来の電気バス技術

  • トヨタREEシャーシ
  • 大きく変化するロボットバス
  • 未来のロボットシャトル
  • ロボット車両向け多機能スマートウィンドウ
  • NREL:トリプルアクションウィンドウ
  • 空港シャトルバスの薄膜PVルーフシステム
  • IBM Olliロボットバス、など

第9章 電気バスの資金調達

第10章 ハイブリッドバス製造業者90社のリスト

第11章 ピュア電気バス製造業者・改修業者・設計事業者120社のリスト

第12章 予測

  • ロボットシャトル
  • 電気スクールバス:地域別(ユニット)
  • 電気スクールバス:市場規模(米ドル)
  • FCEVシティバス:地域別(ユニット)
  • FCEVシティバスのバッテリー需要
  • FCEVシティバス:市場規模(米ドル)
目次

Title:
Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021-2040
Battery Electric, Plug-in Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses in China, Europe, US and India: Forecasts, Technology, Company Assessments.

Battery electric city buses a $25 billion market in 2030.

The bus market is evolving rapidly. The pressing need for cities around the world to improve air quality, alongside commitments by many governments to address climate change, are powering efforts to deliver zero on-road emission city bus fleet solutions. Over the next decade, these efforts will see major cities increasingly refuse to purchase anything but zero emission buses, as they deliver on promised zero emission zones to protect the health of their citizens.

Bus technology will focus primarily on battery electric buses (BEV), with plug-in hybrids (PHEV) rapidly losing already low market shares, and the much hyped fuel cell powertrain (FCEV) remaining a small fraction of the market because they fail to offer the same total cost of ownership benefit as BEV.

The latest edition "Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021- 2040" offers our in-depth analysis of this evolving market, highlighting major developments over the past year, and presenting for the first time our extended outlook to 2040 for pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell buses.

China has led the world in bus electrification and will continue to do so over the next 20-years. However, as a result of the subsidy phase-outs and the increasing saturation of electric buses in Tier 1 cities, IDTechEx project the electric bus sales in China will stabilise at a lower level than during the subsidy boom years, after the biggest decline yet in 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Whilst Chinese OEMs will no longer receive large subsidies in China (which have amounted to billions of dollars), the support has already established a world-beating cost base and technology, which is spreading to other countries. For example, Europe sold over 1800 electric buses in 2019, up from around 750 in 2018, with BYD and Yutong as key suppliers. As the Chinese electric bus market saturates, we expect to see an increased presence of Chinese bus OEMs in other bus markets around the world.

The 2019 Busworld conference in Belgium left in no doubt that several of the giants of the industry are still primarily promoting diesel buses, and consequently rapidly losing market share (for example former bus leader Daimler). The report details key innovations and future trends from the conference, which included a bus that parked sideways and two pure electric Chinese robot shuttles. Our interviews revealed some gantry charging, leading to batteries of one quarter the cost and size. This report majors on these new developments including successful sales of Chinese robot shuttles and buses sold with in-wheel motors, and Solaris and China rapidly gaining market share by selling the latest technology, value engineered.

In 2010, virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later they will be the minority. Why, and what are the implications for the value chain? Componentry, systems, and bodywork are being radically changed. In this report, technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons and IDTechEx's bus technology timeline to 2040. The report includes a chapter devoted to the growing autonomous shuttle market; with increasing interest in autonomous passenger transport, the report offers profiles of current autonomous shuttle developers, explaining the design and future of small merged car / taxi / buses.

IDTechEx's research is underpinned by primary research and interviews undertaken around the globe, ongoing interviews are carried out globally by IDTechEx's PhD level multilingual technology analysts.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. Industry Terms
  • 1.3. Global Bus Fleet 2020
  • 1.4. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
  • 1.5. Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends
  • 1.6. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
  • 1.7. Overview of 21 Country Targets
  • 1.8. Forecast 2020-2040: Global city bus sales (Units)
  • 1.9. Impact of coronavirus on forecasts
  • 1.10. Primary Conclusions: Manufacturers
  • 1.11. Primary Conclusions: Vested Interests
  • 1.12. Primary Conclusions: Technology
  • 1.13. Expectation of Lower Up-front Price 2020-2030
  • 1.14. Key global forecast takeaways
  • 1.15. Key regional forecast takeaways
  • 1.16. End of PHEV Buses
  • 1.17. Assumptions
  • 1.18. Assumptions - unit cost and battery size
  • 1.19. Fuel cell city bus forecasts
  • 1.20. Fuel cell bus example specifications
  • 1.21. Fuel cell city bus forecasts
  • 1.22. Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Why adopt buses?
  • 2.2. Why adopt electric buses?
  • 2.3. Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
  • 2.4. Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles
  • 2.5. Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART)
  • 2.6. Future robot shuttle
  • 2.7. Electric Bus Leadership: Focus on BEV
  • 2.8. PHEV Sales: China and Europe
  • 2.9. C40 Green and Healthy Streets Declaration tested against orders
  • 2.10. Cities committed to the Transport part of the C40's Green and Healthy Streets Declaration
  • 2.11. Challenges for Cities
  • 2.12. China Cost Advantages
  • 2.13. Importance of Upfront Price
  • 2.14. Bus as a train?
  • 2.15. What do latest electric bus orders tell us?

3. REGIONAL ANALYSIS

  • 3.1. China electric transit bus, coach, shuttle
    • 3.1.1. History of buses in China
    • 3.1.2. China Electric Bus Sales by OEM and City
    • 3.1.3. Yutong fights BYD for global leadership
    • 3.1.4. BYD
    • 3.1.5. New cars and Skyrail for 2020
  • 3.2. India transit bus, coach, shuttle
    • 3.2.1. Overview - Background: commercial vehicles
    • 3.2.2. Electric bus overview
    • 3.2.3. FAME India, Olectra-BYD, Ashok Leyland, Kinetic, TVS
  • 3.3. Latin America transit bus, coach, shuttle
    • 3.3.1. Latin America - large numbers
  • 3.4. North America transit bus, coach, shuttle
    • 3.4.1. USA: Unique mix
    • 3.4.2. BYD, New Flyer, IndyGo, Alexander Dennis, BYD
    • 3.4.3. Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
    • 3.4.4. On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses
  • 3.5. Europe transit bus, coach, shuttle
    • 3.5.1. Overview
    • 3.5.2. Europe Electric Bus Manufacturer Market Share
    • 3.5.3. The German bus industry is being destroyed
    • 3.5.4. Cities rebel
    • 3.5.5. France
    • 3.5.6. Germany compared to Poland
    • 3.5.7. Germany compared to Poland contd.
    • 3.5.8. Netherlands
    • 3.5.9. Nordics
    • 3.5.10. United Kingdom
    • 3.5.11. Spain and Luxembourg

4. SCHOOL BUSES

  • 4.1. North America Overview
  • 4.2. School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
  • 4.3. US school bus statistics 2018
  • 4.4. USA: world's largest school bus fleet
  • 4.5. ADOMANI pure electric boost - US school buses
  • 4.6. Commentary
  • 4.7. Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
  • 4.8. Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
  • 4.9. US leading school bus manufacturers
  • 4.10. School bus classification and examples
  • 4.11. US school bus examples
  • 4.12. China: big potential, not much happening yet
  • 4.13. School buses: USA and China compared
  • 4.14. School buses: V2G trials, launches and initiatives
  • 4.15. Leading US suppliers 2019-2020

5. LEARNINGS FROM BUSWORLD

  • 5.1. Electric buses today
  • 5.2. Mellor, eCrafter, APTIS
  • 5.3. Large choice of regular sized electric buses
  • 5.4. CRRC of China makes its own state-of-the-art electric bus components
  • 5.5. Robot buses from China
  • 5.6. Bus technology and component suppliers
  • 5.7. What is happening about emissions? Cheating but improving
  • 5.8. Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
  • 5.9. Overview
  • 5.10. Powertrain choices

6. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

  • 6.1. Voltage trends
  • 6.2. Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
  • 6.3. Motor Efficiency Comparison
  • 6.4. Convergence on PMSM by Major Automakers
  • 6.5. Electric Bus Motors
  • 6.6. Magnet Price Increase?
  • 6.7. In-wheel motors
  • 6.8. Batteries, axial flux and external rotor motors
  • 6.9. Gantry charging
  • 6.10. Cummins reinvented
  • 6.11. How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs

7. AUTONOMOUS SHUTTLE COMPANY PROFILES

  • 7.1. Navya
  • 7.2. A closer look into the AUTONOM Shuttle
  • 7.3. Sensor architecture of the AUTONOM Shuttle
  • 7.4. AUTONOM CAB
  • 7.5. Navya shifting its business model
  • 7.6. EasyMile
  • 7.7. EZ10 and TractEasy
  • 7.8. EZFleet - Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
  • 7.9. SWOT analysis
  • 7.10. Autonomous shuttles' public service in Australia
  • 7.11. 2getthere
  • 7.12. SWOT analysis
  • 7.13. Baidu Apolong
  • 7.14. Apolong sensor solution
  • 7.15. May Mobility
  • 7.16. Local Motors
  • 7.17. Sensible 4
  • 7.18. GACHA
  • 7.19. Ohmio Automation
  • 7.20. Yutong

8. FUTURE ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY

  • 8.1. Toyota REE chassis: huge advances
  • 8.2. Robot buses changing radically: all sizes, smart materials
  • 8.3. Future robot shuttle
  • 8.4. Multifunctional smart windows coming for robot vehicles
  • 8.5. Triple action window by NREL
  • 8.6. Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system
  • 8.7. IBM Olli robot bus: 3D printed multifunctional
  • 8.8. Traction supercapacitors in buses
  • 8.9. Battery type, performance, future
  • 8.10. Autonomy technology and hardware trends
  • 8.11. Hardware replaced by software & content
  • 8.12. Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality
  • 8.13. ASSURED project for fast charging
  • 8.14. Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
  • 8.15. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
  • 8.16. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
  • 8.17. Energy positive buses will come

9. ELECTRIC BUS FINANCING

  • 9.1. UK eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.2. Germany eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.3. Sweden eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.4. Norway eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.5. Italy eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.6. Netherlands eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
  • 9.7. Spain eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
  • 9.8. European Clean Bus Deployment Initiative
  • 9.9. China eBus Purchase Subsidies
  • 9.10. US eBus Purchase Subsidies

10. LIST OF 90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS

11. LIST OF 120 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS, RETROFITTERS, DESIGNERS

12. FORECASTS

  • 12.1. Robot Shuttles 2020-2030
  • 12.2. Electric School Buses 2020-2030: By region (Units)
  • 12.3. Electric School Buses 2020-2030: Market size ($USD billions)
  • 12.4. Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city buses by region (Units)
  • 12.5. Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand FCEV city buses (MWh)
  • 12.6. Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
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