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市場調査レポート

電気バン市場 2020-2030年

Electric Vans 2020-2030

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 923204
出版日 ページ情報 英文 190 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
電気バン市場 2020-2030年 Electric Vans 2020-2030
出版日: 2020年01月28日 ページ情報: 英文 190 Slides
概要

世界の電気小型商用車 (LCV) 生産台数は、2030年までに240万台を上回ると予測されています。 商用車の電化を推進する要因は各地域市場ごとに異なりますが、それぞれの地域で従来の内燃エンジンに替わって電動モーターの急速な導入を推進するという強力な成長要因があります。

当レポートでは、世界の主要地域における電気小型商用車 (LCV) 市場について調査し、10年間の詳細な展望を提供しており、各地域における人気の電気LCV、主なイネーブリング技術、市場展望などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリーと結論

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 小型商用車 (LCV) の分類

  • 小型商用車 (LCV) の分類
  • 商品輸送の各セグメント:土地別
  • 人気のオンロードトラックの種類
  • LCVフリートの説明:地域別

第4章 ELCVのTCOの検討事項

  • 環境に良いだけではeLCVの取り込みに不十分
  • eLCVのTCOに関する検討事項
  • 低排出技術の障壁を克服
  • 例:eLCVのTCO(Renault Kangoo)
  • 例:eLCVのTCO(日産e-NV200)
  • ディーゼルとeLCV間のTCOパリティのタイムライン
  • コストパリティに到達するのはいつか?
  • 電気およびディーゼルLCVコストパリティ

第5章 欧州の電気LCV

  • 欧州:LCV販売
  • LCVの欧州市場
  • 欧州で使用中のLCVフリートと新規登録
  • 欧州の6大LCVフリートの新規登録
  • 欧州の電気LCV販売
  • 欧州における人気のe-LCV
  • 欧州における人気のe-LCV:StreetScooter
  • 欧州における人気のe-LCV:コンパクトユーティリティビークル
  • 欧州におけるe-LCV の将来
  • 欧州における利用可能なeLCVの仕様
  • Arrival:Hyundai Motor Group からの投資
  • 市場展望:国および地方の政策
  • 市場展望:スウェーデンの予測

第6章 中国における電気LCV

  • 中国:商用車販売
  • 小型商用車の中国市場
  • 中国:電気SPVの販売
  • 中国における人気の電気小型バン
  • 中国における人気の電気バン
  • 中国:中国の電気LCVへの主要バッテリーサプライヤー
  • 中国:中国の電気LCVの主要モーターサプライヤー
  • 中国におけるLCV電化の促進要因
  • 市場展望:中国の電気LCV

第7章 米国における電気LCV

  • 米国:商用バン販売
  • バンの米国市場
  • 米国における人気の電気バン
  • Rivian / Amazon 電動配送バン
  • 米国におけるLCVフリートの電化を促進するビジネス?

第8章 その他の電気LCV

  • トヨタプロエース
  • 大和/ DHLストリートスクーター
  • 三菱MiniCab MiEVバン
  • Hyundai-Kia
  • Tata Motors Ace
  • Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van
  • Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
  • Ashok Leyland - LCV分野へ移行するのはまだ早い
  • Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
  • SEA E4V 配達用バン

第9章 主なイネーブリング技術

第10章 ELCVの市場予測

  • LCV予測の前提条件
  • 市場予測:電気LCVの平均バッテリー容量 (kWh) - 欧州
  • 市場予測:電気LCVの平均バッテリー容量 (kWh) - 中国
  • 市場予測:電気LCVの平均バッテリー容量 (kWh) - 北米
  • 市場予測:電気LCVの平均バッテリー容量 (kWh) - その他
  • 世界のLCV市場予測
  • 世界のLCV生産台数
  • 世界のeLCV生産台数
  • 世界のeLCV生産台数:地域別
  • 世界のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • 世界のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • eLCVバッテリー要件の予測:地域別
  • LCV (全燃料) 市場予測
  • LCV (全燃料) 市場予測:地域別
  • LCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測
  • 欧州のLCV市場予測
  • 欧州のLCV生産台数
  • 欧州のeLCV生産台数
  • 欧州のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • 欧州のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • 欧州のeLCV市場予測
  • 欧州のLCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測
  • 欧州のLCV市場予測
  • 欧州のLCV生産台数
  • 欧州のeLCV生産台数
  • 欧州のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • 欧州のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • 欧州のeLCV市場予測
  • 欧州のLCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測
  • 中国のLCV市場予測
  • 中国のLCV生産台数
  • 中国のeLCV生産台数
  • 中国のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • 中国のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • 中国のeLCV市場予測
  • 中国のLCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測
  • 北米のLCV市場予測
  • 北米のLCV生産台数
  • 北米のeLCV生産台数
  • 北米のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • 北米のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • 北米のeLCV市場予測
  • 北米のLCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測
  • ROW (その他) のLCV市場予測
  • ROW (その他) のLCV生産台数
  • ROW (その他) のeLCV生産台数
  • ROW (その他) のLCV市場シェア予測:eLCV
  • ROW (その他) のeLCV総バッテリー要件
  • ROW (その他) のeLCV市場予測
  • ROW (その他) のLCV市場全体の収益に占めるeLCVシェアの予測、ほか
目次

Title:
Electric Vans 2020-2030
Detailed regional production, market, battery requirement and market value forecasts for electric light commercial vehicles, 2020-2030. Background to the developing electric van markets in Europe, China and the US: players and drivers for electrification.

Global production of electric light commercial vehicles to exceed 2.4 million units annually by 2030.

Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, the prudent economic decision.

Whilst there are differing motivations for commercial vehicle electrification in each of the key geographical markets, there are strong drivers in each which are pushing them towards the rapid adoption of electric motors in place of conventional internal combustion engines.

The new IDTechEx forecast report "Electric Vans 2020-2030" provides a detailed ten-year outlook for the uptake of electric light commercial vehicles across key regions; China, Europe, North America and the rest of the world. The report contains over 50 market forecast slides, outlining eLCV production, penetration, market revenue and battery requirement. This report will be of great value to companies across the automotive industry including OEMs, battery manufactures, electric drivetrain parts and systems suppliers, materials and research organisations, charging infrastructure developers, government agencies and companies with significant LCV fleets.

IDTechEx Electric Vans 2020-2030 forecast segmentation:

  • By geography; North America, China, Europe (EU + EFTA) and ROW as well as an aggregate global forecast.
  • 10-year outlook; production, market penetration, market revenue, battery capacity requirement and eLCV share of total LCV market.

Also included in the report:

  • 2020-2030 eLCV sales forecasts for each European country with greater than 25,000 LCV units sales p.a. (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, Norway and Switzerland).
  • 2020-2040 market penetration and sales forecasts for France, the UK and Germany, incorporating IDTechEx's 2020-2030 forecasts into a longer-term LCV electrification pathway in the three largest European markets.

Along with the forecasts, the IDTechEx Electric Vans report 2020-2030, provides a background to the addressable LCV market in each of the key regions; describes the current state of the eLCV market in each of these regions, highlighting the major players; and looks at the distinct drivers in each region that are promoting the growth of electric light commercial vehicles, including total cost of ownership considerations.

The LCV market is uniquely positioned for the rapid uptake of electric vehicles for a number of reasons, which include:

  • LCV purchase decisions are commonly made on a total cost of operation (TCO) basis. The significant operational cost saving of electricity, in place of diesel, as a fuel is incorporated into the decision-making process of an LCV purchaser to a much greater degree than is the case for private customers in the electric passenger car market, where upfront cost is more often the determining factor. Where the TCO benefit of an electric vehicle can be demonstrated, it becomes a competitive advantage for operators to run electric vehicles. For smaller vans there is evidence that this is already the case, for larger vans the TCO parity is projected for the mid-2020s.
  • Fleet managers have a detailed knowledge of the daily duty requirements of their vehicles. As LCV operators understand the daily mileage they require from their vehicles, range anxiety should not be an issue for the LCV market. OEMs must work with their customers, pre-sale, to understand firstly if their vehicle can meet the daily duty demand in the worst case scenario (cold, fully laden, congested traffic, etc) and further to this, to work with them to optimise the battery size and charging strategy to meet their customers' need, with the effect of reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle and minimising the weight of the installed battery.
  • Along with the concerns common to all combustion driven vehicles around fuel efficiency / CO2 emission and the impact of this on the global climate, a further driver for eLCV is the effect of exhaust emissions on local air quality. LCVs are often employed in urban environments as a key element in the logistics chain. There is growing evidence of the detrimental impact that exhaust pollutant emissions, especially NOx and PM, have on local air quality and public health. As a direct result, many large cities are in the process of introducing mechanisms to limit the access of polluting vehicles to city centres. Combustion engine driven vehicles will increasingly have to pay to access low emission zones within cities, vastly increasing their operating costs. Urbanisation and the continued growth of e-commerce is set to increase demand for the delivery of goods, but the tariff on exhaust emissions in congested urban areas will make eLCV the cheapest way to meet the demand.

The total cost of ownership is important to LCV purchasers and will be a driving force for uptake, however in the short term IDTechEx expect there to be a period of progressively larger pilot projects, conducted by commercial fleet operators to establish that eLCVs meet the businesses operational requirements. This period of validation will be necessary for fleet operators to determine that the vehicle range, load volume capacity, payload weight and reliability in real-world operation are sufficient to replace the existing diesel fleet. Once this has been shown, the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will take begin.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
  • 1.2. Light commercial vehicle classification
  • 1.3. Continued growth in road freight demand
  • 1.4. Electric small vans TCO advantage over diesel
  • 1.5. eLCV regional summary
  • 1.6. Key global forecast takeaways
  • 1.7. Key Regional Forecast takeaways:
  • 1.8. LCV global production (000s units)
  • 1.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
  • 1.10. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
  • 1.11. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Climate change
  • 2.2. Global CO2 emission from transport
  • 2.3. CO2 emissions from the LCV sector
  • 2.4. Urban air quality
  • 2.5. Road transport the main source of urban NOx
  • 2.6. Global efforts to limit urban road transport emissions
  • 2.7. National diesel and petrol vehicle bans
  • 2.8. The worldwide freight transport industry
  • 2.9. Projected increase in global road freight activity
  • 2.10. The rise of e-commerce: increased freight demand
  • 2.11. Fuel / emissions regulation for new LCVs
  • 2.12. GHG emission from light commercial vehicles
  • 2.13. Europe legislating CO2 emission from LCV
  • 2.14. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
  • 2.15. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
  • 2.16. Considerations for eLCV adoption
  • 2.17. Do electric LCVs offer sufficient range?
  • 2.18. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
  • 2.19. New eLCV sales (BEV & PHEV), 2005-18 (000s)
  • 2.20. eLCV stock (BEV & PHEV), by country, 2005-18 (000s)

3. LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION

  • 3.1. Light commercial vehicle classification
  • 3.2. Different segments of goods transportation by land
  • 3.3. Types of popular on-road truck
  • 3.4. LCV fleet description by region

4. TCO CONSIDERATIONS FOR ELCV

  • 4.1. Environmental goodwill insufficient for uptake of eLCV
  • 4.2. TCO considerations for eLCV
  • 4.3. Overcoming barriers for low emission technologies
  • 4.4. Example: TCO for eLCV (Renault Kangoo)
  • 4.5. Example: TCO for eLCV (Nissan e-NV200)
  • 4.6. Timeline for TCO parity between diesel and eLCV
  • 4.7. When will cost parity be reached?
  • 4.8. Electric and diesel LCV cost parity

5. ELECTRIC LCVS IN EUROPE

  • 5.1. Europe: LCV sales 2018
  • 5.2. European market for LCVs
  • 5.3. European in-use LCV fleet and new registrations
  • 5.4. New registrations in Europe's six largest LCV fleets
  • 5.5. 2018 European Electric LCV Sales
  • 5.6. Popular e-LCVs in Europe
  • 5.7. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: StreetScooter
  • 5.8. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: compact utility vehicles
  • 5.9. Future e-LCVs in Europe
  • 5.10. Specifications of eLCVs available in Europe
  • 5.11. Arrival: Investment from Hyundai Motor Group
  • 5.12. Market outlook: national and local policy
  • 5.13. Market Outlook: Example Sweden Forecast

6. ELECTRIC LCVS IN CHINA

  • 6.1. China: Commercial Vehicle Sales 2018
  • 6.2. Chinese Market for Light Commercial Vehicles
  • 6.3. China: Electric Special-Purpose Vehicle Sales
  • 6.4. Popular Electric Micro-Vans in China
  • 6.5. Popular Electric Vans in China
  • 6.6. China: Main Battery Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
  • 6.7. China: Main Motor Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
  • 6.8. Drivers for the electrification of LCVs in China
  • 6.9. Drivers for Electrification of LCV Market in China
  • 6.10. Market Outlook: China electric LCVs

7. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE US

  • 7.1. US: Commercial Van Sales 2018
  • 7.2. US Market for Vans
  • 7.3. Popular Electric Vans in the US
  • 7.4. Rivian / Amazon electric delivery van
  • 7.5. Business to drive electrification of LCV fleet in US?

8. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE ROW

  • 8.1. Toyota PROACE
  • 8.2. Yamato / DHL StreetScooter
  • 8.3. Mitsubishi MiniCab MiEV Van
  • 8.4. Hyundai-Kia
  • 8.5. Tata Motors Ace
  • 8.6. Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van
  • 8.7. Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
  • 8.8. Ashok Leyland - Too early to move LCV range electric
  • 8.9. Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
  • 8.10. SEA E4V Delivery Van

9. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 9.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
  • 9.2. Research reports
  • 9.3. Energy storage
  • 9.4. Is LiB Capacity sufficient?
  • 9.5. More than one type of cell design
  • 9.6. Cell, module, and pack
  • 9.7. Changes at cell level
  • 9.8. Timeline for cell improvements
  • 9.9. How do high-power ES variants compare?
  • 9.10. Motor technology choices
  • 9.11. Technology preference by type of vehicle
  • 9.12. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery vans
  • 9.13. Ford Transit Custom PHEV

10. ELCV MARKET FORECASTS 2020-2030

  • 10.1. Assumptions behind the LCV forecasts
  • 10.2. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in Europe 2020-2030
  • 10.3. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in China 2020-2030
  • 10.4. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the North America 2020-2030
  • 10.5. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the ROW 2020-2030
  • 10.6. Global Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.7. LCV global production (000s units)
  • 10.8. eLCV global production (000s units)
  • 10.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
  • 10.10. Global LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.11. Global eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.12. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
  • 10.13. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.14. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 by region ($ Bn)
  • 10.15. eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.16. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)
  • 10.17. Forecast eLCV share of total LCV market revenue
  • 10.18. Europe Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.19. Europe LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.20. Europe eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.21. Europe LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.22. Europe eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.23. Europe eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.24. Forecast eLCV share of total Europe LCV market revenue
  • 10.25. China Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.26. China LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.27. China eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.28. China LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.29. China eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.30. China eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.31. Forecast eLCV share of total China LCV market revenue
  • 10.32. North America Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.33. North America (NA) LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.34. NA eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.35. NA LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.36. NA eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.37. NA eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.38. Forecast eLCV share of total NA LCV market revenue
  • 10.39. ROW Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.40. ROW LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.41. ROW eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.42. ROW LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.43. ROW eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.44. ROW eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.45. Forecast eLCV share of total ROW LCV market revenue
  • 10.46. EU+EFTA Sales Forecast: eLCV market 2020-2030, by county, for markets greater than 25,000 LCV units p.a.
  • 10.47. Austria eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.48. Belgium eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.49. Denmark eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.50. France eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.51. Germany eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.52. Ireland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.53. Italy eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.54. Netherlands eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.55. Poland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.56. Portugal eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.57. Spain eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.58. Sweden eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.59. UK eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.60. Norway eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.61. Switzerland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.62. Europe Forecast: eLCV Market 2020-2040 For France, UK and Germany
  • 10.63. France eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
  • 10.64. UK eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
  • 10.65. Germany eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040