Electric vehicles and their batteries are becoming a far larger business than most realise. Lithium-ion batteries are the clear winner, with only a few percent of their business threatened by alternatives such as other advanced batteries and supercapacitors even in 2030. To understand that, the whole opportunity from land, water and air to hybrid and pure electric vehicles must be reappraised. Enter the 165+ page IDTechEx report, "Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" with detailed granular market analytics and technology assessments at both the cell and pack-level.
The largest market for lithium-ion batteries LIB is and will remain electric vehicles, mainly cars, from 2020-2030. In these applications they almost always have the best compromise of performance, cost, weight and size. However, there are surprises revealed when a careful, fact-based analysis is carried out. In 2030, the EV market leaps to over $3 billion but with cars losing share and burgeoning demand for much smaller and much larger battery packs than those used in cars. The report calculates LIB demand if supplies are unconstrained and prices competitive, revealing that current commitments to Gigafactory building are woefully inadequate for meeting this in only a few years from now. There are also large geographic differences in both the demand, with dramatically different average car battery capacity, and in the supply chain.
Both the cell and the pack demand are forecasted. Indeed, the detail goes down to 100 types of EV by year and the way engineers are working round the excessive percentage of vehicle cost represented by the battery. There are potential shortages of materials and other issues identified in the report because this is sober analysis not evangelism for the industry. For example, IDTechEx argues that cell cost cannot continue to drop sharply as more expensive materials are introduced in the pursuance of higher energy density.
The report provides a deep technology dive in two of the most rapidly evolving areas for this industry: cell chemistry and thermal management.
The cell chemistry continues to develop to higher energy densities, with the nickel-rich NMC 811 the latest and most notable cathode iteration to take to the road. Beyond that advanced Li-ion batteries and solid-state batteries are rapidly emerging into commercial areas. This report benchmarks the key technologies as well as highlighting notable players and partnerships.
The thermal management design at pack level is still yet to get close to a consensus on the best strategy. Different notable players are pursuing air, liquid, or refrigerant-cooled methods each with their own benefits and weaknesses. The thermal interface materials are also experiencing a large degree of market turbulence and new methods continue to arise in immersion cooling, phase-change material encasements, and tab cooling. This is all with the backdrop of a shifting regulatory landscape in-light of high-profile incidents of thermal runaway.
Finally, this report looks at the opportunities for the lithium-ion battery after their serviceable life in a vehicle. End-of-life does not mean end-of-service and many OEMs are building strategies around this with applications varying from charging infrastructure to low-speed vehicles.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
- 1.1. What is an electric vehicle?
- 1.2. Purpose of this report and overview
- 1.3. Primary conclusions: markets
- 1.4. Primary conclusions: technical
- 1.5. Matching LIB production commitment to EV LIB demand unconstrained by supply
- 1.5.1. Top five LIB megafactories 2019
- 1.6. Major EV applicational categories compared
- 1.7. Factors driving success of pure electric cars: LIB implications
- 1.7.1. Range drives success: larger batteries demanded
- 1.7.2. Rigged markets boost sales
- 1.8. Very large LIB: growth market now
- 1.9. EV market analysis
- 1.9.1. Largest EV manufacturers hybrid and pure electric and their future
- 1.9.2. Forecast of key electric vehicle categories - units
- 1.9.3. Plug-in passenger car analysis
- 1.10. Plug-in passenger car analysis capacity analysis
- 1.10.1. The key electric vehicle OEMs - battery demands
- 1.11. Outlook of lithium-ion battery demand (GWh)
- 1.11.1. Forecast of LIB demand from electric vehicles
- 1.12. 100 EV categories: forecasting assumptions, characteristics, leaders
- 1.12.1. Forecasts for cars vary greatly
- 1.13. How to get EV cost down
- 1.13.1. LIB battery pack cost 2005-2030
- 1.13.2. IDTechEx LIB cell cost forecast by application
- 1.13.3. Killer blow is lower up-front price as LIB cost reduces
- 1.14. LIB fires in EVs and road to improvement
- 2.1. Electric vehicle basics
- 2.1.1. Overview
- 2.1.2. How powertrains affect Li-ion battery needs
- 2.2. EV battery basics
- 2.2.1. What does 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) look like?
- 2.2.2. Lithium-ion batteries are a huge success
- 2.2.3. Battery essential parameters - breakdown of LIB production costs
- 2.2.4. Advantages of Li-ion batteries
- 2.2.5. Problems with LIB
- 2.3. Chinese EV battery value chain
- 2.4. Impact of subsidy policies on the Li-ion market
- 2.5. National Plan for xEV battery in China: much better LIB performance demanded
- 2.6. LIB are part of the trend to far less complexity
- 2.7. More rugged versions needed now
- 2.8. Li-ion battery recycling
- 2.9. Progress to less and no battery
- 2.9.1. Business case Nikola fuel cell truck
- 2.9.2. For the Class 8 trucks will fuel cell or battery win?
3. LITHIUM-ION TECHNOLOGY
- 3.1. A family tree of batteries - Lithium-based
- 3.2. LIB chemistries for electric cars
- 3.3. Commercial battery packaging technologies
- 3.4. Comparison of commercial battery packaging technologies
- 3.5. Battery chemistry influence on charge/ discharge
- 3.6. Useful charts for performance comparison
- 3.7. Li-ion raw materials in perspective
- 3.8. How can LIBs be improved?
- 3.8.1. Overview
- 3.8.2. Push and pull factors in Li-ion research
- 3.8.3. Appraisal of cathode chemistry changes: nickel up cobalt down
- 3.8.4. Changing too fast?
- 3.9. Performance goes up, cost goes down
- 3.10. LIB cost
- 3.10.1. General Motors' view on battery prices
- 3.11. Trying to catch Tesla: car battery formats and types
- 3.12. Charging with vehicle moving and energy independence means less battery
- 3.13. Structural batteries?
- 3.14. Lack of standardisation in terms of battery packs
- 3.15. Dry processes for higher energy density
4. INCREASING ENERGY DENSITY
- 4.1. Energy density in context
- 4.2. Better batteries with a wider cell voltage
- 4.3. Greater electrode capacity
- 4.4. Electrochemically inactive materials reduce energy density
- 4.5. Anode Advancements: Pure silicon, silicon-dominant, silicon-rich, graphite-dominant anode materials
- 4.6. Benchmark comparison of 11 Silicon-based battery companies
- 4.7. Beyond Li-ion: new battery chemistries
- 4.8. Non-commercial new battery technologies
- 4.9. Technology evaluation: polymer vs. LLZO vs. LATP vs. LGPS
- 4.10. What is a solid-state battery (SSB)?
- 4.11. How can solid-state batteries increase performance?
- 4.11.1. Solid state battery collaborations / acquisitions by OEMs
- 4.11.2. Close stacking
- 4.12. Quantitative Energy density improvements
- 4.13. Energy Density Requirements
- 4.14. NMC 811 takes to the road
5. SUPERCAPACITORS VS LIB
- 5.1. Supercapacitors and LIB hybrids
- 5.2. Even better batteries and supercapacitors are a real prospect: future W/kg vs Wh/kg
- 5.3. Supercapacitors in the automotive sector: examples
- 5.4. Powertrain penetration
- 5.5. Supercapacitors in the on-road automotive sector 2010-2030
- 5.6. Performance enhancement and multi-purposing
- 5.7. Supercapacitor buses
- 5.8. Drayage trucks -LIB in USA or supercapacitor in China?
- 5.9. Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini, Volvo: can LIB follow?
6. THERMAL MANAGEMENT AND FIRE PREVENTION FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERIES
- 6.1. Battery Thermal Management - Introduction
- 6.2. Cell chemistry impact thermal runaway likelihood
- 6.3. Analysis of battery cooling methods
- 6.4. Is tab cooling a solution?
- 6.5. Thermal management - pack and module overview
- 6.6. Thermal Interface Material (TIM) - pack and module overview
- 6.7. TIM - Options and market comparison
- 6.8. TIM: the silicone dilemma
- 6.9. TIM: the conductive players
- 6.10. TIM: silicone alternatives
- 6.11. Insulating cell-to-cell foams
- 6.12. Heat spreaders or interspersed cooling plates - pouches and prismatic
- 6.13. Active cell-to-cell cooling solutions - cylindrical
- 6.14. TIM: Phase Change Materials
- 6.15. Immersion cooling
- 6.16. Fire protection - introduction
- 6.16.1. Ongoing lithium-ion fires and explosions
- 6.16.2. Wrong charging: Porsche, Smart
- 6.17. Next Li-ion failures and production delays due to cutting corners?
- 6.18. Thermal runaway prevention - overview
- 6.18.1. Thermal runaway prevention - cylindrical cell-to-cell
- 6.18.2. Thermal runaway prevention - cylindrical cell-to-cell
- 6.19. Prevention of battery shorting
7. LIB MANUFACTURE
- 7.1. What sets the battery industry apart
- 7.2. Differences between cell, module, and pack
- 7.3. EV supply chain - not just electrochemistry
- 7.4. LIB manufacturing system
- 7.5. LIB manufacturing system - from cell to module
- 7.6. LIB manufacturing system - from module to pack
- 7.7. Battery pilot line and scale-up issues
- 7.8. The need for a dry room
- 7.9. Electrode slurry mixing
- 7.10. Stacking methods
- 7.11. World leader: CATL China
8. SECOND-LIFE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERIES
- 8.1. Retired electric vehicle batteries can have a second-life before being recycled
- 8.2. Timeline of battery second use implementations
- 8.3. Main companies involved in battery second use
- 8.4. Regulatory landscape for battery second use
- 8.5. Battery second use connects the electric vehicle and battery recycling value chains
- 8.6. Target markets for second-life batteries