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電気自動車の中国市場:2019-2029年

Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 791881
出版日 ページ情報 英文 155 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=112.99円で換算しております。
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電気自動車の中国市場:2019-2029年 Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029
出版日: 2019年02月20日 ページ情報: 英文 155 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中国の電気自動車市場について調査し、市場の背景 (人口増加、排ガスによる汚染、規制の枠組みなど) 、小型EV (2輪車、3輪車、自動車類似車両など) に関する統計・規制・見通し、自動車市場の環境 (企業の販売状況、技術など) 、電動バス・トラックおよび農業用ドローンの動向、および主要企業のプロファイルなどを提供しています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー・結論

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 中国における2輪車、3輪車、自動車類似車両

  • マイクロEV、eバイク、eスクーター、eモーターバイク、障がい者向けモビリティ
  • Eバイクの分類・規制
  • 統計:中国における電動バイクの崩壊
  • シナリオ
  • 種類の多いマイクロEVおよび2輪車、ほか

第4章 中国における自動車

  • 概要
  • 人工的な需要
  • 中国におけるトップセールスの電気自動車:マーカー別
  • 世界を席巻する自動車イノベーション:GaAs 太陽光発電を搭載したHanergy のエネルギー自律型ビークル (EIEV)
  • 燃料電池車
  • Teslaは中国で安いModel3の販売を開始
  • Great Wall Motor ORA R1 :世界で最も安い自動車?

第5章 中国における電動バス・トラック

  • 概要
  • トラック・バスの種類
  • 電動バスの種類
  • 中国のコスト優位性
  • 電動バス・トラック向けの主な新興技術:トップアップ充電
  • 中国の燃料電池車向け戦略
  • 中国におけるソーラーバス
  • 中国はスーパーキャパシター車両を世界に広める
  • 世界の大型トランジットバス
  • マッピング:主な電動バスメーカーおよびリチウムイオンバッテリーパックサプライヤー
  • 主な電動バス、バッテリータイプおよび性能の実例
  • 忘れられた100万台のスクールバス
  • 中国におけるトラック

第6章 企業プロファイル

  • BYD
  • Yutong

第7章 農業用ロボット・ドローン

  • 概要
  • 人口増加と食料需要の増加
  • 主要作物の収穫量は横ばい
  • 農業における雇用
  • 農業における雇用の世界的な進化
  • 農業人口の高齢化
  • 世界的な最低賃金の動向
  • 可変作業技術 (VRT) によって超精密農業へと向かう
  • 超精密農業は農業バリューチェーンの変革をもたらす
  • 農業用ロボットおよび超精密農業は農業バリューチェーンの変革をもたらす、ほか
目次

The important new IDTechEx report, "Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029" finds that the market penetration in China of electric buses is more impressive than electric cars. However, it cautions that, even here, two or more diesel buses are still made for every electric one in China. There has never been support to electrify one million polluting old school buses but IDTechEx predicts when their up front price in electric form meets conventional and sales take off. The statement that China has 400,000 large pure electric buses and that is 99% of the number in the world is true but not the whole story. Performance comparisons, battery specifications and suppliers - it is all summarised in information-packed pages.

Understand why electric bus exports but not car or truck exports are impressive but e-trucks will become a huge business in China. Learn how Chinese companies, often with Chinese government backing are continuing to buy brands, routes to market and advanced technology. Some new Chinese technologies are impressive but it eagerly seeks others. Which? The new data IDTechEx has gathered, using its multi-lingual PhD level analysts, make it optimistic about solar road and drone, hub motor and supercapacitor vehicle leadership for example. Discover which type of EV will sell from China at three times the volume of electric bikes.

China is catching up in robot shuttles and software-controlled fleets and updates. It needs to do better in power electronic, high energy density supercapacitors, structural electronics and other identified aspects. With EV batteries becoming smaller soon due to top up charging at speed and other innovations, some Chinese gigafactories may become stranded assets. When? Understand how Chinese EV components will succeed hugely abroad and damage the business of traditional western Tier One suppliers insufficiently investing in R&D.

The 155 page "Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029" embraces 51 companies. The 34 page "Executive summary and conclusions" reveals of new infograms, tables and graphs and detailed forecasts. They give rapid insight into good and bad EV sectors in China, largest manufacturers, export and import gaps in the market, technology trends and tools for prediction. Emphasis is on distilled information with many conclusions and predictions.

The Introduction to the report then examines pollution, congestion, vehicle specifications and evolving capability in China and why certain vehicles are favoured by the government. Regulatory, reuse, recycling and traceability in China are covered.

Chapter 3 concerns small EVs in China - 2 and 3 wheel and car-like vehicles. It embraces market slowdowns, restrictions and growth opportunities. Chapter 5 summarises the electric car situation in China with examples of sales and technology leadership by company.

Chapter 4 is more detailed on the large activity in buses and, in future, trucks and their batteries, the largest cost for now. Here you find costing and powertrain evolution. Learn of the fuel cell vehicle strategy and initiatives and supercapacitor buses and trucks eliminating traction batteries. See negligence and innovation with buses and trucks. Chapter 6 profiles leaders BYD and Yutong in a critical but balanced manner. IDTechEx describes them as successful opposites both having big challenges and opportunities ahead.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Terminology in China
  • 1.2. Purpose of this report and primary conclusions
    • 1.2.1. Purpose and methodology
    • 1.2.2. Primary conclusions
  • 1.3. Control economy
    • 1.3.1. How the government controls and protects industry
    • 1.3.2. Subsidy changes for NEVs in 2018
    • 1.3.3. "Double credit" policy: CAFC + NEV
  • 1.4. Peak in overall car sales then peak in electric car sales k globally - goodbye to many things...
  • 1.5. Chinese auto companies well diversified beyond cars
  • 1.6. Why China is leapfrogging to pure electric
  • 1.7. Pure electric vehicle adoption: small vehicles cost effective first
  • 1.8. Ambitious China: new models, acquisitions, global leadership
    • 1.8.1. Examples of new models 2015-2019
    • 1.8.2. Buying brands, routes to market, innovation: example Geely
    • 1.8.3. EV Sectors where China is leading in output yellow or technology green
  • 1.9. Foreign participation in the Chinese market: Gao Feng view with IDTechEx comment
  • 1.10. Market projections
    • 1.10.1. Global EV demand $ billion 2019-2029
    • 1.10.2. New energy vehicle monthly sales 2016-2018
    • 1.10.3. 2017 Chinese NEV sales breakdown
    • 1.10.4. 2018 Chinese NEV sales breakdown (Jan-Aug)
    • 1.10.5. NEV sales China Nov 2017 - Nov 2018
    • 1.10.6. Pure electric vehicle sales China to 2014-2018
    • 1.10.7. Forecast numbers for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
    • 1.10.8. Forecast unit value for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
    • 1.10.9. Forecast market value for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
  • 1.11. Bloomberg electric car forecast
  • 1.12. EV charging infrastructure development in China
  • 1.13. National plan for xEV battery in China

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Population rises, cities dominate, parking and emissions unsustainable
  • 2.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 2.3. Pollution in China
    • 2.3.1. Overview
    • 2.3.2. Global warming and China
    • 2.3.3. Local emissions: complex battle continues
    • 2.3.4. River and sea pollution
    • 2.3.5. Lead poisoning from the wrong electric vehicles
    • 2.3.6. Congestion in China
    • 2.3.7. Turning a blind eye to some solutions
  • 2.4. Powertrain and advanced charging options
    • 2.4.1. Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
    • 2.4.2. Powertrain cost comparison in China
  • 2.5. Pure electric vehicle viability vs energy storage kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
  • 2.6. Less battery: supercapacitor, fuel cell combinations
  • 2.7. Battery parameters in pure electric buses and trucks in China 2019 kWh and voltage trending upwards. Later, the kWh will trend downwards with top up charging.
  • 2.8. Regulatory framework for EV battery reuse and recycling
    • 2.8.1. The EV battery recycling and traceability management platform
    • 2.8.2. Nalon Battery, Shenzhen

3. TWO AND 3 WHEEL VEHICLES, CAR-LIKE VEHICLES IN CHINA

  • 3.1. Micro EVs, e-Bikes, e-Scooters, e-Motorbikes, Mobility for Disabled
  • 3.2. E-Bike Classifications and Regulations
  • 3.3. Statistics: electric bike collapse in China
    • 3.3.1. Market drivers, sales, exports
    • 3.3.2. Top electric bike manufacturers in China
    • 3.3.3. Bans of e-bikes in China
  • 3.4. Scenario 2019-2029
  • 3.5. Many types of micro EV and two wheeler
  • 3.6. Drivers for growth in Chinese production of up-market two and three wheelers

4. CARS IN CHINA

  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Artificial demand
  • 4.3. Top sales of electric cars in China by manufacturer
  • 4.4. World-beating car innovation sometimes: Hanergy EIEV cars in 2020 with GaAs photovoltaics
  • 4.5. Fuel cell cars
  • 4.6. Tesla begins sales of cheaper Model 3 in China - February 2019
  • 4.7. Great Wall Motor ORA R1 - world's cheapest f car?

5. ELECTRIC BUSES AND TRUCKS IN CHINA

  • 5.1. Overview
  • 5.2. Types of truck and bus
  • 5.3. Types of electrified bus
  • 5.4. China cost advantage
  • 5.5. Key emerging technology for electric buses and trucks; top up charging
  • 5.6. China's strategy for fuel cell vehicles
    • 5.6.1. Emergence of fuel cell commercial vehicles
    • 5.6.2. Some medium sized fleets of fuel cell vehicles deployed
  • 5.7. Solar buses in China
    • 5.7.1. Large buses
    • 5.7.2. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
  • 5.8. Chinese supercapacitor vehicles spreading worldwide
    • 5.8.1. Battery replacement: supercapacitor viability vs capacity kWh 2010-2040
    • 5.9. Other key enabling technology
  • 5.10. Heavy duty transit buses worldwide 2022
  • 5.11. Mapping: Top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers
  • 5.12. Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance
  • 5.13. One million school buses neglected
    • 5.13.1. School bus innovation
  • 5.14. Trucks in China
    • 5.14.1. Some of the top truck manufacturers
    • 5.14.2. Trucks in China
    • 5.14.3. Short haul Class 8 pure electric trucks
    • 5.14.4. Foreign collaboration: TEVA / JAC hybrid truck
    • 5.14.5. Supercapacitor trucks
    • 5.14.6. Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems

6. COMPANY PROFILES

  • 6.1. BYD
  • 6.2. Yutong

7. AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS AND DRONES

  • 7.1. Overview
  • 7.2. Growing population and growing demand for food
  • 7.3. Major crop yields are plateauing
  • 7.4. Employment in agriculture
  • 7.5. Global evolution of employment in agriculture
  • 7.6. Aging farmer population
  • 7.7. Trends in minimum wages globally
  • 7.8. Towards ultra precision agriculture via the variable rate technology route
  • 7.9. Ultra Precision farming will cause upheaval in the farming value chain
  • 7.10. Agricultural robotics and ultra precision agriculture will cause upheaval in agriculture's value chain
  • 7.11. Agriculture is one the last major industries to digitize: a look a investment in data analytics/ management firms in agricultural and dairy farming
  • 7.12. The battle of business models between RaaS and equipment sales
  • 7.13. Transition towards to swarms of small, slow, cheap and unmanned robots
  • 7.14. Market and technology readiness by agricultural activity
  • 7.15. Technology progression towards driverless autonomous large-sized tractors
  • 7.16. Technology progression towards autonomous, ultra precision de-weeding
  • 7.17. Technology and market progression roadmap for robotic fresh fruit harvesting
  • 7.18. 20-year market forecasts (2018-2038) for agricultural robots and drones segmented by 16 technologies
  • 7.19. Drones: dominant designs begin to emerge
  • 7.20. Drones: global geographical spread of companies
  • 7.21. Ten-year market forecasts for agricultural drones
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