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市場調査レポート

電動トラック・配送用車バン(2018 - 2028年)

Electric Trucks and Delivery Vans 2018-2028

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 652224
出版日 ページ情報 英文 383 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=113.61円で換算しております。
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電動トラック・配送用車バン(2018 - 2028年) Electric Trucks and Delivery Vans 2018-2028
出版日: 2018年06月15日 ページ情報: 英文 383 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、電動トラック・配送用バン市場について調査し、電気自動車 (EV) 市場の影響を受けるメガトレンド、電化ロードマップ、これから起こる商用車向けの制限、純電気自動車の導入ダイナミクス、およびトラック・バンを電化するメリットなどについてまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 トラック・バンの分類

第4章 EUにおけるトラック・バン

第5章 米国におけるトラック・バン

第6章 日本におけるトラック・バン

第7章 中国におけるトラック・バン

第8章 その他 (ROW) におけるトラック・バン

第9章 小型電動車両 (LDV)

第10章 中型電動車両 (MDV)

第11章 大型電動車両 (HDV)

第12章 ハイブリッド vs. 純電動トラック・バン

第13章 トラック・バン向け燃料電池

第14章 商品配送のエコノミクス

第15章 主要イネーブリング技術

第16章 電動トラック向けスマートロード

第17章 自動運転トラック

第18章 市場予測

目次

Title:
Electric Trucks and Delivery Vans 2018-2028
Light Duty, Medium Duty, Heavy Duty.

The market for electric trucks and vans will reach $480B by 2028.

Technology improvement with electrified road vehicles has been slow. The primary reason why trucks are now a major focus for electrification is local and national government and other regulations and incentives in the face of increasing public concern about the millions killed yearly by road vehicle emissions and the prospect of all seven billion on the planet being wiped out by global warming caused primarily by carbon dioxide emissions.

Most trucks run on diesel and the ongoing announcements by certain countries and cities that they will ban diesel from a certain date in the future causes increasing uncertainty and risk for those making and using conventional trucks, including possible collapse in resale values.

The trucking industry runs on tight margins and total cost of ownership is key, so fleet management companies delay purchases so they comply with new toughening carbon dioxide emissions laws - but the days of reckoning are now approaching. In 2018, The German government announced it will drop the tolls for electric semi trucks as of January, 1, 2019. The move by transport minister Andreas Scheuer is designed to motivate the slow electrification of truck transport as it promises savings for haulage firms.

Larger and larger vehicles will become affordable in pure electric form due to battery and other costs reducing and ICE costs increasing due to extra emission control devices being fitted to meet more onerous emissions laws. However, some EVs are bought as pure electric earlier for other reasons such as indoor working, the wish to take a lead in tackling urban pollution, tightening emissions laws or having the fast, accurate response needed for various degrees of autonomy up to driverless operation.

IDTechEx has prepared this report because ever larger vehicles become viable in pure electric form, and now it is the turn of on-road trucks. Primarily this is due to the all-important cost of ownership being lower a few years from now. We also included small vans that have been used in pure electric form for 130 years because they are of interest to the same logistics, retailing and industrial companies.

The report covers technical and marketing aspects, by segmenting the market into light-duty electric vehicles (LDV), medium-duty electric vehicles (MDV), and heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDV). The main models across these categories under development are presented, together with innovations in enabling technologies like powertrains, axles, and battery packs. With a global coverage, this report aims at informing users about the size of the market and the underlying opportunities, also in terms of energy storage sources: will Li-ion batteries or fuel cells capture most of the market for long-haul transport applications? A detailed split over battery chemistry is also provided, detailing how NMC, LFP, and other cathode materials will capture the total addressable market.

This technical document is complemented with information on autonomous driving for the trucking industry, as well as enabling technologies like smart roads and charging infrastructure. This report is intended to be useful to all in the value chain from materials and research organisations to parts and systems suppliers, operators, legislators and others. It is the only up to date comprehensive coverage of the subject based on thorough research worldwide.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. Purpose and scope of this report
  • 1.2. Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets
  • 1.3. Social megatrends red. Technological megatrends blue
  • 1.4. The end game is not as popularly portrayed
  • 1.5. Electrification roadmap
  • 1.6. Who is being disrupted?
  • 1.7. Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
  • 1.8. Specialty vehicles
  • 1.9. More carrot, more stick
  • 1.10. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
  • 1.11. Benefits from truck and van electrification
  • 1.12. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
  • 1.13. Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
  • 1.14. Need for a systems approach
  • 1.15. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks/ vans

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Urban pollution
  • 2.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 2.3. CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
  • 2.4. Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification
  • 2.5. GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015
  • 2.6. Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015
  • 2.7. CO2 emission from road transport, EU-28, 2015
  • 2.8. CO2 emission from road transport
  • 2.9. Projected global freight activity and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050
  • 2.10. The state of the art in alternative drivetrains
  • 2.11. Market for urban goods transport grows rapidly
  • 2.12. Market for e-commercially transported goods
  • 2.13. Share of US grocery market
  • 2.14. The worldwide freight transport industry
  • 2.15. Euro 6 emissions standard adoption around the world
  • 2.16. Fuel emissions policies around the world
  • 2.17. Electric trucks and vans cut pollution faster than cars
  • 2.18. EU initiatives to offset additional powertrain weight
  • 2.19. Fuel saving technology areas
  • 2.20. The easy way out of emissions control: aerodynamics
  • 2.21. Aerodynamics: Shell Airflow Starship
  • 2.22. Other avenues for fuel efficiency: lightweighting
  • 2.23. Is retrofitting an economically viable option?
  • 2.24. Electric powertrain options for trucks
  • 2.25. Start-stop electrification and other fuel efficiency measures
  • 2.26. Maxwell's Ultracapacitor-Based Engine Start Module

3. CLASSIFICATIONS OF TRUCKS AND VANS

  • 3.1. The worldwide freight transport industry
  • 3.2. Value chain rewritten
  • 3.3. Different segments of goods transportation by land
  • 3.4. Types of popular on-road truck
  • 3.5. Existing truck classifications

4. TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE EU

  • 4.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - EU
  • 4.2. Pollutant emissions have been slashed to near-zero levels
  • 4.3. Main truck brands in Europe
  • 4.4. Truck sales in EU-28 by size and brand, 2016
  • 4.5. Vans in Europe
  • 4.6. Vans in EU-28 - market share by brand, fuel and sales, 2016
  • 4.7. Best-selling vans in EU-28, 2016
  • 4.8. CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by brand, 2009-2016
  • 4.9. CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by country, 2016

5. TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE US

  • 5.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - USA
  • 5.2. US truck population by vehicle type
  • 5.3. HDV market share in the US
  • 5.4. Average Daily Truck Traffic on the National Highway System, 2012
  • 5.5. Industry issues according to US truckers
  • 5.6. Average truck age in the US
  • 5.7. Alternative fuel choices for trucks in the US
  • 5.8. The cost of trucking in the United States
  • 5.9. Average U.S. On-Highway Diesel Prices, 2008 - 2016
  • 5.10. Repair & maintenance, another running cost for US truckers
  • 5.11. Nobody wants to be a truck driver in the US
  • 5.12. The solution: electric, autonomous trucks?

6. TRUCKS AND VANS IN JAPAN

  • 6.1. Truck transport business in Japan
  • 6.2. The number of truck carriers has plateaued
  • 6.3. CO2 emissions from trucks
  • 6.4. Main truck brands in Japan
  • 6.5. Historic truck sales in Japan
  • 6.6. Medium and heavy duty truck sales in Japan
  • 6.7. Large and medium-sized trucks market share

7. TRUCKS AND VANS IN CHINA

  • 7.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - China
  • 7.2. HDV registrations in China by province, by type, and brand
  • 7.3. Truck engine supplier relationships in China
  • 7.4. Chinese truck joint ventures
  • 7.5. China's truck market segments
  • 7.6. China exports its trucks too
  • 7.7. Buses down in China, trucks up
  • 7.8. China's first emissions testing standard for heavy-duty vehicles
  • 7.9. Argonne National Labs

8. TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE ROW

  • 8.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - Russia
  • 8.2. Other markets - Mexico
  • 8.3. A visual history of commercial hybrid trucks

9. LIGHT DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES

  • 9.1. An industry changing from the ground up
  • 9.2. Last Mile vehicle needs and challenges
  • 9.3. Small vehicles that move the local economy
  • 9.4. Retrofitting of old delivery vans
  • 9.5. Harrod's electric van
  • 9.6. Functions required
  • 9.7. UPS to transform diesel trucks into electric vehicles
  • 9.8. Deutsche Post DHL runs 5000 StreetScooters
  • 9.9. Nissan e-NV200
  • 9.10. StreetScooter
  • 9.11. Renault Kangoo Z.E.
  • 9.12. Renault Master Z.E.
  • 9.13. Citröen Berlingo Electric / Peugeot Partner Electric
  • 9.14. LDV/Saic Maxus EV80
  • 9.15. Iveco Daily Electric
  • 9.16. Mercedes Benz eVito
  • 9.17. Mercedes Benz eSprinter
  • 9.18. Daimler Vision Van
  • 9.19. Volkswagen e-Crafter
  • 9.20. Ford Transit Custom PHEV
  • 9.21. LEVC taxi-based PHEV van
  • 9.22. Dongfeng Motor Corporation
  • 9.23. Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV
  • 9.24. Bakery Vehicle 1
  • 9.25. Bucher
  • 9.26. TU Munich aCar
  • 9.27. Tropos Motors ABLE
  • 9.28. Polaris GEM eL XD
  • 9.29. IFEVS

10. MEDIUM DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES

  • 10.1. A category that is difficult to define
  • 10.2. Fuso eCanter
  • 10.3. Wrightspeed
  • 10.4. Orange EV
  • 10.5. Iveco
  • 10.6. Dual Energy
  • 10.7. Iveco Dual Energy
  • 10.8. Alkane and evLaboratory MoU
  • 10.9. Geely and Via Motors to make electric truck
  • 10.10. Royal Mail with all-electric vans
  • 10.11. Zero Truck
  • 10.12. Chanje vans
  • 10.13. Efficient Drivetrains Inc
  • 10.14. Dongfeng Motor Corporation
  • 10.15. List of Commercial Medium Duty Vehicles
  • 10.16. Medium Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects

11. HEAVY DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES

  • 11.1. Trucks
  • 11.2. EDF: electric trucks to disrupt highway transport
  • 11.3. MAN e-mobility roadmap
  • 11.4. Why Daimler is pushing for electric trucks
  • 11.5. VW and Navistar to use joint e-drivetrain for trucks
  • 11.6. Cummins announces acquisition of Brammo
  • 11.7. Cummins Acquires Johnson Matthey's Automotive Battery Systems Business
  • 11.8. Scania and Northvolt partnership
  • 11.9. Hino Motors
  • 11.10. BMW and SCHERM
  • 11.11. Tesla Semi
  • 11.12. Tesla's New Semi Already Has Some Rivals
  • 11.13. Daimler eActros
  • 11.14. Daimler
  • 11.15. Timeline of Daimler's electric truck models
  • 11.16. Hyundai rushes to electrify commercial vehicles
  • 11.17. Mack Trucks
  • 11.18. BYD electric truck assembly plant in Ontario, Canada
  • 11.19. Motiv Power Systems
  • 11.20. Efficient Drivetrains Inc
  • 11.21. Atlas Copco adds to haulage truck range
  • 11.22. VDL will present its Electric Truck early in 2019
  • 11.23. E-Force One
  • 11.24. Renault and Groupe Delanchy
  • 11.25. eMoss
  • 11.26. eMoss - pure EV trucks
  • 11.27. eMoss - electric trucks with range extender
  • 11.28. eTruck from eMoss and Tampere University
  • 11.29. Shannxi Automotive PHEV Class 8 cement mixer truck
  • 11.30. Hybrid upfit system for trucks
  • 11.31. BYD Delivers First All-Electric Garbage Truck To Palo Alto
  • 11.32. First electric truck by VDL
  • 11.33. Magna
  • 11.34. Thor Trucks
  • 11.35. Renault to sell electric trucks in 2019
  • 11.36. Volvo to reveal electric semi truck for 2019
  • 11.37. Volvo with Samsung for full-electric trucks
  • 11.38. List of commercial Heavy Duty Vehicles
  • 11.39. Heavy Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects
  • 11.40. Some electric trucks compared

12. HYBRID VS. PURE ELECTRIC TRUCKS AND VANS

  • 12.1. Powertrain focus
  • 12.2. Motor-generator REM duty cycle, type, function
  • 12.3. A matter of use cases
  • 12.4. Heavy duty powertrains by application
  • 12.5. ICE vs. parallel hybrid drivetrain
  • 12.6. Eaton Hybrid Electric System Layout
  • 12.7. Anatomy of a hybrid electric van
  • 12.8. Waste heat recovery (WHR) in a hybrid powertrain
  • 12.9. CO2eq emissions in different heavy duty vehicles
  • 12.10. Hybrid upfit system for trucks
  • 12.11. TEVA / JAC
  • 12.12. Mahle Range Extender
  • 12.13. The more battery capacity the better, right?
  • 12.14. Ricardo's view of long haul options

13. FUEL CELLS FOR TRUCKS AND VANS

  • 13.1. Fuel cell vehicles will never be mainstream
  • 13.2. Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
  • 13.3. The need for long range beyond range extenders
  • 13.4. What fuel cell vans used to look like
  • 13.5. What fuel cell vans look like today
  • 13.6. Fuel cell trucks in China
  • 13.7. Fuel cells and trucks today
  • 13.8. Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
  • 13.9. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - driving range
  • 13.10. Are batteries viable for long-haul?
  • 13.11. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - cost
  • 13.12. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - efficiency
  • 13.13. Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling
  • 13.14. Hydrogen refuelling station
  • 13.15. Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
  • 13.16. Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
  • 13.17. Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
  • 13.18. Anheuser-Busch Makes Record Order of 800 Nikola Trucks
  • 13.19. Ballard and Kenworth
  • 13.20. Ballard Fuel Cell Module to Power Hybrid UPS Delivery Van Trial Program in California
  • 13.21. Ballard and Hyster-Yale
  • 13.22. ULEM Co
  • 13.23. How bio-waste generates hydrogen
  • 13.24. Nikola and Bosch partnership - hydrogen fuel cell
  • 13.25. DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
  • 13.26. Keyou
  • 13.27. Fuel Cell vehicle demonstration projects

14. THE ECONOMICS OF GOODS DELIVERY

  • 14.1. Top challenges for commercial vehicles
  • 14.2. Differences between e-car and e-truck
  • 14.3. How many km do trucks travel in a year and in a day
  • 14.4. Testing and Demonstration of PHEV Parcel Delivery Vehicles
  • 14.5. TCO of a diesel truck vs. an all-electric truck
  • 14.6. Financial benefits for the freight industry
  • 14.7. Potential CO2eq reduction potential of HEV trucks
  • 14.8. Battery makers in China see tough times
  • 14.9. What does this imply for niche EV markets?
  • 14.10. Commercial EVs help the others cross the Devil's Bridge
  • 14.11. When will cost parity be reached?
  • 14.12. Tesla sued for $2B by Nikola over alleged patent infringement
  • 14.13. Last Mile Delivery - DHL
  • 14.14. Last Mile Delivery - Amazon
  • 14.15. The Tesla Semi Will Eclipse Diesel
  • 14.16. Making Sense Out of Tesla's Semi Truck Economics
  • 14.17. U.K. Truckers: Tesla Semi Performance not Important
  • 14.18. Tesla Truck gets DHL order as shippers test Semi
  • 14.19. Ryder To Order Tesla's Semi
  • 14.20. Barriers to fuel-saving technologies
  • 14.21. Trucks are only convenient below 400 km range
  • 14.22. Cost of electricity in California by time of day ($/kWh)
  • 14.23. Strategies for reducing the cost of electricity for xEVs
  • 14.24. The total cost of ownership of electric trucks
  • 14.25. The economics of battery swapping for electric trucks
  • 14.26. The economics of fuel cells in trucks
  • 14.27. The economics of e-roads and catenaries
  • 14.28. Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
  • 14.29. Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
  • 14.30. E-truck adoption rate forecasts in California
  • 14.31. Powertrain cost comparison - China
  • 14.32. Powertrain cost comparison - Europe
  • 14.33. Powertrain cost comparison - United States
  • 14.34. Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks

15. SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 15.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
  • 15.2. Energy storage
  • 15.3. Forecasts of energy density by type 2018-2028
  • 15.4. Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
  • 15.5. Safety
  • 15.6. EVs catching fire get media attention, but ICEs are not immune to that either
  • 15.7. Battery choices at MAN Truck & Bus
  • 15.8. Bosch and batteries for trucks
  • 15.9. GVI - battery packs for delivery vans
  • 15.10. EnerDel - battery packs for trucks
  • 15.11. Supercapacitors in heavy trucks
  • 15.12. Skeleton Tech: supercap opportunity
  • 15.13. Iveco and Supercaps - a cost perspective
  • 15.14. Iveco and Supercaps - a history of tests
  • 15.15. Iveco and high power- LTO, NCM, or Supercaps?
  • 15.16. Motor technology choices
  • 15.17. Technology preference by type of vehicle
  • 15.18. REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
  • 15.19. Trend to high voltage, high speed motors
  • 15.20. Oerlikon SR motor in large hybrids
  • 15.21. Planned PM synchronous heavy duty drive UQM, Eaton,Pi Innovo
  • 15.22. Electric Wheel Hub Drives
  • 15.23. Dana in-axle motor
  • 15.24. Move to integration - Volkswagen's approach
  • 15.25. Examples of trend to product integration
  • 15.26. Example of multiple REM per vehicle
  • 15.27. Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
  • 15.28. LeTourneau switched reluctance
  • 15.29. Continental
  • 15.30. BPW axles
  • 15.31. TM4
  • 15.32. Cool Tech (formerly HPEV Inc.)
  • 15.33. Reinventing wind turbines for use on boats, ships, aircraft, land vehicles
  • 15.34. Charging needs for LCV and MCV/HCV
  • 15.35. Opportunity charging makes batteries for trucks smaller

16. SMART ROADS FOR ELECTRIC TRUCKS

  • 16.1. There's Now An Electric Highway In California
  • 16.2. Mack demonstrates catenary-powered PHEV
  • 16.3. Volvo's electric roads point to battery-free EV future
  • 16.4. Dynamic EV charging
  • 16.5. Qualcomm
  • 16.6. ElectRoad
  • 16.7. University of Washington
  • 16.8. Auckland University

17. AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING

  • 17.1. Joint venture for autonomous electric trucks
  • 17.2. Joint venture: CEO statements
  • 17.3. What Does Tesla's Automated Truck Mean for Truckers?
  • 17.4. Automation levels in trucking explained
  • 17.5. Uber acquiring Otto sets the scene on fire?
  • 17.6. Embark: Hybrid approach for autonomous truck driving on highways
  • 17.7. Starsky Robotics: retrofitting existing trucks and making them remote-controlled
  • 17.8. Baidu: becoming the Android of autonomous vehicles
  • 17.9. TuSimple: Chinese Al provider for level-4 autonomous trucks
  • 17.10. Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (market share as % total truck unit sales)
  • 17.11. Historical price evolution for cameras, primary/secondary memory, computing and photovoltaics
  • 17.12. Ten-year and twenty-year component-segmented price projections for hardware for autonomous mobility
  • 17.13. Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (in unit numbers and dollars)
  • 17.14. Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for the value of automation hardware/components
  • 17.15. The economic case for autonomous trucks
  • 17.16. Pelton: V2V links to enable closer platooning

18. MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2028

  • 18.1. Assumptions behind the forecasts - light-duty vehicles (LDV)
  • 18.2. Assumptions behind the forecasts - medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MDV/HDV)
  • 18.3. Average battery size for vans and trucks (kWh) 2018-2028
  • 18.4. LDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
  • 18.5. LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
  • 18.6. LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
  • 18.7. LDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028
  • 18.8. MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
  • 18.9. MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) - battery-powered and fuel cells 2018-2028
  • 18.10. MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
  • 18.11. MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
  • 18.12. MDV/HDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028
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