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電気バス向けリチウムイオン電池 2016-2026年

Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Buses 2016-2026

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 353565
出版日 ページ情報 英文 229 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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電気バス向けリチウムイオン電池 2016-2026年 Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Buses 2016-2026
出版日: 2016年03月04日 ページ情報: 英文 229 Slides
概要

大型電気バス用リチウムイオン電池の需要は、2026年までに約300億米ドルへ拡大すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、リチウムイオン電池および電気バス (8トン以下および8トン以上のハイブリッド・電気バス) 市場について詳細に分析しており、電池の種類と性能、主要企業のプロファイル、リチウムイオン電池・電気バスの需要・販売数予測、電池・電気バス産業における主要企業の現在の市場シェアと規模、などを提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 なぜ電気自動車なのか?

  • 二酸化炭素 (CO2) のヒューマンソース
  • 化石燃料燃焼による二酸化炭素の排出
  • 輸送におけるCO2排出量の削減手段
  • 輸送車両におけるCO2排出量の目標
  • 電気自動車導入の促進因子、ほか

第2章 電気バス・電池の種類

  • 純電気バスの種類
  • e-バス技術の動向:実例
  • 電池の種類
  • 電池の各アプリケーション
  • 電池のアドレッサブル市場:エンドユーザー区分別、ほか

第3章 リチウムイオン種類の例

  • リチウムの種類
  • コバルト酸リチウム (LiCoO2)
  • リン酸鉄リチウム (LiFePO4)
  • リチウムニッケルマンガンコバルト (LiNiMnCoO2)
  • スピネル型リチウムマンガン酸化物 (LiMn2O4) 、ほか

第4章 企業プロファイル:主な電気バスメーカー

  • Yutong
  • BYD
  • Ankai
  • King Long
  • CSR Times Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.
  • Dongfeng Motor Corporation
  • Sunwin Bus Corporation
  • Zhongtong
  • Hengtong
  • Proterra
  • Solaris
  • Hybricon Bus System

第5章 企業プロファイル:主なリチウムイオン電池メーカー

  • Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd.
  • Battery Company: BYD
  • BYD Production Capability
  • Applications of BYD LFP battery
  • BYD LFP used in electric vehicles
  • Specification of BYD LFP Battery
  • Battery Company: A123 Systems, LLC.
  • A123 battery specification
  • Altairnano
  • LG Chem, Ltd
  • Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (AESC)
  • AESC battery specification
  • Johnson Controls, Inc.
  • XALT Energy
  • GSユアサ
  • 日立ビークルエナジー
  • Zhejiang Tianneng Energy Technology Co., Ltd
  • SK Innovation Co., Ltd
  • Specification of SK Innovation module, Pack and BMS
  • Electrovaya Inc.
  • Saft
  • Saft's battery system for commercial vehicles
  • Battery company: Toshiba
  • Features of Toshiba's SCIB
  • Production plant for Toshiba's SCIB
  • 東芝研究開発センター

第6章 電気バスにおける電池のダイナミクス

  • 電池容量 vs. 自動車総重量 (GVW)
  • 電池容量 vs. 乗車範囲
  • 乗客定員 vs. e-バス重量
  • 容量に基づいたリチウムイオン電池の売上数量
  • リチウムイオン電池の売上、電気バス向けMWh、ほか

第7章 市場予測

  • 大型電気バスの販売台数予測
  • 電気バス市場規模
  • 世界のe-バス向けリチウムイオン電池市場規模
  • リチウムイオンの電池市場:売上数量比
  • 「普段通りの」予測の前提条件、ほか

第8章 マイルドハイブリッド48V車両

  • 48Vマイルドハイブリッド車両
  • なぜ従来型内燃エンジン車両向けの「48Vマイルドハイブリッド」アーキテクチャーなのか?
  • 電化パワートレイン48Vマイルドハイブリッド車両の進化に対する従来の見解は、特に陸上車の、大部分は路上においての、進化における暫定的技術の欠落
  • これらのシステムオプションの主要コンポーネントは大部分が異なる
  • 48Vマイルドハイブリッドシステムの技術的中心、ほか

第9章 電池以外のバスエネルギーストレージ

  • 性能比較1
  • リチウムイオン電池がスーパーコンデンサーに置き換えられる車両
  • エネルギーストレージ装置とその特徴
  • 各システムの操作原理
  • レンジエクステンダーとしての燃料電池、ほか

第10章 結論・展望

第11章 リチウム充電池メーカー140社以上の分析

目次

Demand for large electric bus lithium-ion batteries is expected to grow to nearly $30bn by 2026.

The battery market has come alive again as manufacturers are all rushing to address the emerging market for large-sized batteries driven largely by the rapid growth in sales of electric buses. IDTechEx Research thinks that the rush is fully justified as it sees the market growing to $30 billion in 2026, potentially making it the largest segment of overall battery market. Just to set this in context, we expect the market for electric bus batteries to overtake the consumer electronic battery sector by 2019-2020 as shown in figure 1.

Figure 1: Comparing the market size for consumer electronic and
electric bus batteries. Electric bus batteries are expected to
take over around 2019-2020

                     Source: IDTechEx

These are interesting times for the battery market again. These new applications are set to alter the business landscape, at the technology, supplier and territory level. This will have major implications not only for large battery corporations but also for all those involved in the battery production value chain.

China currently dominates this market. 97% and 75% of electric buses and their batteries are currently produced in China, respectively. Despite its slow charge rates, LFP is the technology of choice thanks to its higher safety levels which matters more at large battery sizes. The IP landscape for LFP is also more open and accommodating, removing one of the key non-capital barriers into this market.

China also appears determined to bring the entire electric bus value chain inside the country. This goes some way towards explaining the recent news about the Chinese government intervention with regards to the nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) lithium-ion variant, which is produced exclusively outside the country. It is uncertain whether this intervention will ultimately be upheld but what is certain is that it at least acts as a short-term break on the market of non-LFP batteries.

In the long term however, we expect the battery market composition to change. Electric bus production outside China will slowly rise and the safety of NMC batteries will be improved thanks to better management systems. This will enable them to compete thanks to their intrinsically higher charging rates.

Note that electric buses make and break the fortunes of other energy storage technologies. They became the largest market for supercapacitors until they were designed out causing a market decline. We expect to see substantial innovation in this sector going forwards. The race is on to develop higher energy, faster and safer large-sized energy storage technologies.

As shown in figure 2 below, IDTechEx Research predicts that for the business-as-usual scenario the non-LFP battery technology will grow to 48% of the market in 2025, making the e-battery bus business a truly global market. However, if the Chinese government rigorously applies its policy on non-LFP batteries there would be a change in the dynamics of the global battery market for electric buses. More information on the forecast considering the Chinese intervention can be found in this report.

Figure 2: The battery market of lithium-ion variants by % sales volume for
electric buses (hybrid and pure electric buses).
This is a business-as-usual scenario

                     Source: IDTechEx

This report

This report gives an in-depth market analysis on Li-ion batteries and electric buses (under 8 ton and over 8 ton hybrid and electric buses) highlighting battery type and performance (in terms of battery chemistry, electric range, energy and power capacity) as well as company profiles of the main industrial players. The report also covers a benchmark of various Li-ion variants used in electric vehicles, current status of the battery chemistry used in electric buses and predicts the growth prospects of the electric bus Li-ion battery market (taking into account the market share for advanced and post lithium ion batteries) over the coming decade. In addition, the report provides market forecasts for demand and sales volumes of Li-ion batteries and large electric buses from 2016 to 2026, current market share and size and key players in the battery and electric bus industry.

Key questions addressed in this report include:

  • What are the driving factors for the adoption of electric buses?
  • What are the different types of electric buses?
  • What are the different Li-ion battery chemistries used in electric buses?
  • How do the various Li-ion variants compare in terms of performance, life and safety and these parameters affect the type of batteries selected by electric bus manufacturers?
  • What are the current limitations of Li-ion batteries with regards to electric buses?
  • What is the current dynamics of Li-ion batteries used in electric buses?
  • Who are the key players in the electric bus market and Li-ion battery market for electric buses?
  • How quickly will the markets for electric buses and Li-ion batteries grow?
  • What is the current market share of Li-ion battery manufacturers for electric buses?
  • What are the current Li-ion battery chemistries used in electric buses and what are the future prospects?
  • How does the Li-ion battery market for electric buses compare with other addressable market such as consumer electronics, wearable technology etc.?
  • Is there a substantial market opening for Li-ion batteries in 48V mild hybrid vehicles?
  • What are the other types of energy storage systems used in electric buses?
  • What role would supercapacitors, hybrid supercapacitors, fuel cells, advanced and post lithium batteries and flywheels play as energy storage systems in electric buses?

This report gives 10 year forecasts up to 2026 in the following segments:

  • Sales volume forecast for electric buses
  • Electric bus market value, 2015-2026
  • Global Li-ion battery market value for electric bus, 2016-2026
  • Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume. Scenario 1: "business-as-usual" forecast
  • Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume. Scenario 2: "Chinese government intervention" forecast
  • Battery market of anode chemistry by % sales volume
  • Electric bus and Li-ion battery pack price forecast
  • Battery volume demand in GWh by end use segment, 2016-2026

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. WHY ELECTRIC VEHICLES?

  • 1.1. Human sources of carbon dioxide (CO2)
  • 1.2. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion
  • 1.3. Measures to reduce transport CO2 emissions
  • 1.4. Targets for transport vehicle CO2 emissions
  • 1.5. Drivers for the adoption of Electric Vehicles
  • 1.6. Why are electric buses more exciting?
  • 1.7. Electric buses: future urban mobility
  • 1.8. Carbon dioxide emissions in transportation
  • 1.9. Transport of people 2010-2025
  • 1.10. Definitions and Terminologies
  • 1.11. Basic Terms of Battery Performance and Characterisation

2. TYPES OF ELECTRIC BUSES AND BATTERIES

  • 2.1. Types of pure electric bus
  • 2.2. Trends in e-bus Technology - Case example
  • 2.3. Types of battery
  • 2.4. Different applications of batteries
  • 2.5. Addressable battery market by end user segment in $ billion
  • 2.6. Why Lithium Ion batteries?
  • 2.7. Qualitative comparison of current major automotive battery technology groups
  • 2.8. Comparison of specific energy and energy density of various battery systems
  • 2.9. Advantages of Li-ion Batteries
  • 2.10. Disadvantages of Li-ion Batteries
  • 2.11. Current challenges facing automotive Li-ion batteries
  • 2.12. Battery requirements for electric buses
  • 2.13. Battery cell construction
  • 2.14. Basic operation of a Li-ion cell
  • 2.15. The main components of a battery cell
  • 2.16. Lithium-ion battery components, functions, and main materials
  • 2.17. Potential and capacity of different cathode materials
  • 2.18. Potential and capacity of different anode materials
  • 2.19. Lithium-ion battery cell, module and pack
  • 2.20. Types of cell construction

3. EXAMPLES OF LITHIUM ION VARIANTS

  • 3.1. Lithium variants
  • 3.2. Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LiCoO2)
  • 3.3. Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4)
  • 3.4. Lithium Nickel manganese cobalt (LiNiMnCoO2)
  • 3.5. Lithium Manganese Oxide Spinel (LiMn2O4)
  • 3.6. Lithium Nickel Oxide (LiNiO2) and variant
  • 3.7. Comparison of main lithium variant
  • 3.8. Thermal stability of different cathodes (1)
  • 3.9. Thermal stability of different cathodes (2)
  • 3.10. Cost of cathode metals
  • 3.11. Anodes for Li-ion batteries
  • 3.12. Lithium ion batteries by cathode type
  • 3.13. Lithium ion batteries by anode type
  • 3.14. Key parameters for automotive Li-ion variants
  • 3.15. Some of the main Li-ion battery manufacturers
  • 3.16. Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion cell
  • 3.17. Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion batteries
  • 3.18. Lithium ion battery price forecast
  • 3.19. Mapping: Top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers
  • 3.20. Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance
  • 3.21. Li-ion battery manufacturers by location
  • 3.22. Electric bus manufacturers by location

4. COMPANY PROFILES: KEY ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

  • 4.1. Company Profile: Yutong
  • 4.2. Company Profile: BYD
  • 4.3. Company Profile: Ankai
  • 4.4. Company Profile: King Long
  • 4.5. Company Profile: CSR Times Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.
  • 4.6. Company Profile: Dongfeng Motor Corporation
  • 4.7. Company Profile: Sunwin Bus Corporation
  • 4.8. Company Profile: Zhongtong
  • 4.9. Company Profile: Hengtong
  • 4.10. Company Profile: Proterra
  • 4.11. Company Profile: Solaris
  • 4.12. Company Profile: Hybricon Bus System

5. COMPANY PROFILES: KEY LI-ION BATTERY MANUFACTURERS

  • 5.1. Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd.
  • 5.2. Battery Company: BYD
  • 5.3. BYD Production Capability
  • 5.4. Applications of BYD LFP battery
  • 5.5. BYD LFP used in electric vehicles
  • 5.6. Specification of BYD LFP Battery
  • 5.7. Battery Company: A123 Systems, LLC.
  • 5.8. A123 battery specification
  • 5.9. Altairnano
  • 5.10. LG Chem, Ltd
  • 5.11. Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (AESC)
  • 5.12. AESC battery specification
  • 5.13. Johnson Controls, Inc.
  • 5.14. XALT Energy
  • 5.15. GS Yuasa Corporation
  • 5.16. Hitachi Vehicle Energy, Ltd.
  • 5.17. Zhejiang Tianneng Energy Technology Co., Ltd
  • 5.18. SK Innovation Co., Ltd
  • 5.19. Specification of SK Innovation module, Pack and BMS
  • 5.20. Electrovaya Inc.
  • 5.21. Saft
  • 5.22. Saft's battery system for commercial vehicles
  • 5.23. Battery company: Toshiba
  • 5.24. Features of Toshiba's SCIB
  • 5.25. Production plant for Toshiba's SCIB
  • 5.26. Toshiba R&D activities

6. BATTERY DYNAMICS IN ELECTRIC BUSES

  • 6.1. Battery capacity vs Gross vehicle weight
  • 6.2. Battery capacity vs Passenger-range
  • 6.3. Passenger capacity vs e-bus weight
  • 6.4. Li-ion battery sales volume based on capacity
  • 6.5. Li-ion battery sales, MWh for electric bus, 2015
  • 6.6. Li-ion battery, MWh, used in electric buses, 2015
  • 6.7. Battery market value based on e-bus manufacturers, 2015
  • 6.8. Electric bus manufacturers: sales volume 2015
  • 6.9. Market share: electric bus manufacturers, 2015
  • 6.10. Market share: Li-ion battery manufacturers for e-buses

7. MARKET FORECASTS 2016-2026

  • 7.1. Sales volume forecast for large electric buses
  • 7.2. Electric bus market value, 2016-2026
  • 7.3. Global Li-ion battery market value for e-bus, 2016-2026
  • 7.4. Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume (1)
  • 7.5. Assumptions for the "business-as-usual" forecast
  • 7.6. Battery market of anode chemistry by % sales volume
  • 7.7. China intervention in the e-bus battery market
  • 7.8. Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume (2)
  • 7.9. Assumptions for the "Chinese intervention" forecast
  • 7.10. Electric bus and Li-ion battery average price forecast
  • 7.11. Battery volume demand in GWh by end use segment 2016-2026
  • 7.12. Assumptions on the forecast

8. MILD HYBRID 48V VEHICLES

  • 8.1. 48V Mild Hybrid Vehicles
  • 8.2. Why 48V "mild hybrid" architecture for conventional internal combustion engine vehicle?
  • 8.3. Continental view of evolution of electrified powertrains 48V mild hybrid vehicles are the missing transitional technology in the evolution of land vehicles in particular, mostly on-road
  • 8.4. The key components of these system options are mostly different
  • 8.5. The technological heart of a 48V mild hybrid system
  • 8.6. IDTechEx technology timeline 2016-2026 - 48V and competitive market and system developments
  • 8.7. IDTechEx technology timeline 2016-2026 - batteries, rotating machines and electrified components
  • 8.8. Jaguar LandRover/Delta 2015 Roadmap
  • 8.9. Types of conventional and electric vehicle - two 48V opportunities
  • 8.10. Batteries for 48V mild hybrid: overview
  • 8.11. 48V Battery choices
  • 8.12. Lithium-ion 48V mild hybrid batteries are currently favoured
  • 8.13. Lithium-ion battery for 14V mild hybrids - LGChem
  • 8.14. Bosch lithium-ion 48V mild hybrid battery
  • 8.15. After lithium-ion? Lithium-sulfur and sodium-ion are worth watching but not yet optimal for most 48V or pure EV batteries

9. BUS ENERGY STORAGE BEYOND BATTERIES

  • 9.1. Performance Comparisons 1
  • 9.2. Vehicles where Li-ion battery has been replaced by supercapacitors
  • 9.3. Energy storage devices and their characteristics
  • 9.4. Operational principles of different systems
  • 9.5. Fuel cells as range extenders
  • 9.6. Fuel cells for traction
  • 9.7. Problems with fuel cells
  • 9.8. Roadmaps have not been met
  • 9.9. Performance Comparisons 2
  • 9.10. Supercapacitors are often used across Li-ion batteries
  • 9.11. Car or bus bodywork becomes a supercapacitor !
  • 9.12. Supercapacitors to Li-ion batteries - a spectrum of functional tailoring
  • 9.13. Flywheels - What are they? Who likes them?
  • 9.14. Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
  • 9.15. Flywheel KERS mechanical
  • 9.16. Flywheel scope for mechanical versions

10. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK

11. ANALYSIS OF OVER 140 LITHIUM-BASED RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MANUFACTURERS

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