Li-ion Batteries for Electric Buses 2018-2028
Technology, Market Trends, Forecasts and Key Players.
The market for electric buses will exceed $450B by 2028. Which battery chemistry will dominate?
The battery market has come alive again as manufacturers are all rushing to address the emerging market for large-sized batteries driven largely by the rapid growth in sales of electric buses.
These are interesting times for the battery market again. These new applications are set to alter the business landscape, at the technology, supplier and territory level. This will have major implications not only for large battery corporations but also for all those involved in the battery production value chain.
China currently dominates this market. 97% of electric buses and 75% of their batteries are currently produced in China. China appears determined to bring the entire electric bus value chain inside the country. Despite its slow charge rates, LFP is the technology of choice thanks to its higher safety levels which matters more at large battery sizes. The IP landscape for LFP is also more open and accommodating, removing one of the key non-capital barriers into this market. Nevertheless, new regulations from the Chinese government are pushing LFP out of its comfort zone, giving way to more energy-dense alternatives like NMC.
In the long term, we expect the battery market composition to change. Electric bus production outside China will slowly rise and the safety of NMC batteries will be improved thanks to better management systems. This will enable them to compete thanks to their intrinsically higher charging rates.
Note that electric buses make and break the fortunes of other energy storage technologies. They became the largest market for supercapacitors until they were designed out causing a market decline. We expect to see substantial innovation in this sector going forwards. The race is on to develop higher energy, faster and safer large-sized energy storage technologies.
As shown in the figure below, IDTechEx Research predicts a significant shift in cathode chemistry in the years to come. More information on the forecast considering the Chinese intervention can be found in this report.
The battery market of lithium-ion variants by % sales volume for electric buses (hybrid and pure electric buses). This is a business-as-usual scenario
This report gives an in-depth market analysis on Li-ion batteries and electric buses (under 8 ton hybrid, over 8 ton hybrid and electric buses) highlighting battery type and performance (in terms of battery chemistry, electric range, energy and power capacity) as well as company profiles of the main industrial players. The report also covers a benchmark of various Li-ion variants used in electric vehicles, current status of the battery chemistry used in electric buses and predicts the growth prospects of the electric bus Li-ion battery market (taking into account the market share for advanced and post lithium ion batteries) over the coming decade. In addition, the report provides market forecasts for demand and sales volumes of Li-ion batteries and large electric buses from 2018 to 2028, current market share and size and key players in the battery and electric bus industry.
Key questions addressed in this report include:
- What are the driving factors for the adoption of electric buses?
- What are the different types of electric buses?
- What are the different Li-ion battery chemistries used in electric buses?
- How do the various Li-ion variants compare in terms of performance, life and safety and these parameters affect the type of batteries selected by electric bus manufacturers?
- What are the current limitations of Li-ion batteries with regards to electric buses?
- What is the current dynamics of Li-ion batteries used in electric buses?
- Who are the key players in the electric bus market and Li-ion battery market for electric buses?
- How quickly will the markets for electric buses and Li-ion batteries grow?
- What is the current market share of Li-ion battery manufacturers for electric buses?
- What are the current Li-ion battery chemistries used in electric buses and what are the future prospects?
- What are the other types of energy storage systems used in electric buses?
- What role would supercapacitors, hybrid supercapacitors, fuel cells, advanced and post lithium batteries and flywheels play as energy storage systems in electric buses?
This report gives 10 year forecasts up to 2028 in the following segments:
- Sales volume forecast for electric buses
- Electric bus market value, 2018-2028
- Global Li-ion battery market value for electric bus, 2018-2028
- Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume
- Battery market of anode chemistry by % sales volume-Electric bus and Li-ion battery pack price forecast
- Battery volume demand in GWh by end use segment, 2018-2028
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Table of Contents
1. WHY ELECTRIC VEHICLES?
- 1.1. Human sources of carbon dioxide (CO2)
- 1.2. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion
- 1.3. Measures to reduce transport CO2 emissions
- 1.4. Targets for transport vehicle CO2 emissions
- 1.5. Industry transition to diesel- and petrol- free vehicles
- 1.6. Drivers for the adoption of Electric Vehicles
- 1.7. Why are electric buses more exciting?
- 1.8. Electric buses: future urban mobility
- 1.9. Carbon dioxide emissions in transportation
- 1.10. Transport of people 2010-2025
- 1.11. Definitions and Terminologies - xEV
- 1.12. Electrochemistry definitions
- 1.13. Basic Terms of Battery Performance and Characterisation
- 1.14. Useful charts for performance comparison
- 1.15. What does 1 kilowatthour (kWh) look like?
- 1.16. Differences between cell, module, and pack
2. TYPES OF ELECTRIC BUSES AND BATTERIES
- 2.1. Types of pure electric bus
- 2.2. What is a battery?
- 2.3. Different applications of batteries
- 2.4. Why Li-ion batteries (LIB)?
- 2.5. Qualitative comparison of current major automotive battery technology groups
- 2.6. LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - buses, trucks, and vans
- 2.7. LIB cell cost ($/kWh) forecasts according to IDTechEx
- 2.8. Comparison of specific energy and energy density of various battery systems
- 2.9. Advantages of Li-ion Batteries
- 2.10. Disadvantages of Li-ion Batteries
- 2.11. The battery trilemma
- 2.12. Battery requirements for electric buses
- 2.13. Battery cell construction
- 2.14. Basic operation of a Li-ion cell
- 2.15. The main components of a battery cell
- 2.16. Potential and capacity of different anode materials
- 2.17. Commercial battery packaging technologies
- 2.18. Cylindrical Li-ion cells
- 2.19. Prismatic Li-ion cells
- 2.20. Pouch Li-ion cells (also called Lithium-polymer)
- 2.21. Comparison of commercial battery packaging technologies
3. EXAMPLES OF LI-ION VARIANTS
- 3.1. Lithium variants
- 3.2. Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LiCoO2)
- 3.3. Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4)
- 3.4. Switch away from LFP - the new Chinese EV mandate
- 3.5. Lithium Nickel manganese cobalt (LiNiMnCoO2)
- 3.6. Lithium Manganese Oxide Spinel (LiMn2O4)
- 3.7. Lithium Nickel Oxide (LiNiO2) and variants like NCA
- 3.8. Comparison of main lithium variants
- 3.9. Thermal stability of different cathodes
- 3.10. Cost of cathode metals
- 3.11. Anodes for Li-ion batteries
- 3.12. Li-ion batteries by cathode type
- 3.13. Li-ion batteries by anode type
- 3.14. Key parameters for automotive Li-ion variants
- 3.15. Some of the main Li-ion battery manufacturers
- 3.16. Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion cells
- 3.17. Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion batteries
- 3.18. Li-ion battery price forecast
- 3.19. Mapping: Top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers
- 3.20. Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance
- 3.21. Li-ion battery manufacturers by location
- 3.22. Electric bus manufacturers by location
4. COMPANY PROFILES: KEY ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
- 4.1. Yutong
- 4.2. BYD
- 4.3. Ankai
- 4.4. King Long
- 4.5. CSR Times Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.
- 4.6. Dongfeng Motor Corporation
- 4.7. Sunwin Bus Corporation
- 4.8. Zhongtong
- 4.9. Hengtong
- 4.10. Proterra
- 4.11. Solaris
- 4.12. Ebusco
- 4.13. Hybricon Bus System
- 4.14. Higer Bus Company
- 4.15. Scania
- 4.16. VDL
- 4.17. Volvo
- 4.18. Local Motors Inc.
- 4.19. Navya Arma
- 4.20. Navya
- 4.21. Easy Mile
- 4.22. Alstom
5. COMPANY PROFILES: KEY LI-ION BATTERY MANUFACTURERS
- 5.1. Gigafactories in a wider context
- 5.2. Battery manufacturing in Germany
- 5.3. The Giga-LIB project
- 5.4. Success stories in Europe
- 5.5. Chinese Li-ion battery manufacturers face slump in profits
- 5.6. Battery manufacturing plants - the state of the art
- 5.7. The Gigafactories
- 5.8. LGChem
- 5.9. LGChem's strategy
- 5.10. Samsung SDI
- 5.11. AESC - Nissan + NEC
- 5.12. AESC battery specification
- 5.13. Tesla/Panasonic
- 5.14. Tesla/Panasonic in Europe?
- 5.15. BYD
- 5.16. Applications of BYD's LFP battery
- 5.17. BYD LFP used in electric vehicles
- 5.18. Specification of BYD LFP Battery
- 5.19. CATL
- 5.20. ATL vs. CATL
- 5.21. Microvast
- 5.22. Guoxuan
- 5.23. Boston Power
- 5.24. A123 Systems
- 5.25. A123 battery specification
- 5.26. A123 - Heavy duty HEV applications
- 5.27. A123 - 14 Ah nanophosphate prismatic pouch cell
- 5.28. A123 - automotive battery systems
- 5.29. A123 - heavy duty battery systems
- 5.30. A123 - BAE Systems HybriDrive™
- 5.31. A123 - Battery life analysis
- 5.32. Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd.
- 5.33. Chinese EV battery value chain
- 5.34. SK Innovation Co., Ltd
- 5.35. Specification of SK Innovation module, Pack and BMS
- 5.36. Northvolt (formerly SGF Energy)
- 5.37. TerraE
- 5.38. The Megafactories
- 5.39. Thinking small has advantages and disadvantages
- 5.40. Altairnano
- 5.41. Electrovaya
- 5.42. Electrovaya Inc.
- 5.43. Xalt Energy
- 5.44. XALT Energy
- 5.45. Blue Solutions/Bolloré
- 5.46. Leclanché
- 5.47. Lithops
- 5.48. Saft
- 5.49. Saft's battery system for commercial vehicles
- 5.50. Varta Microbattery
- 5.51. Tadiran Batteries
- 5.52. BMZ
- 5.53. GS Yuasa Corporation
- 5.54. Hitachi Vehicle Energy, Ltd.
- 5.55. Hitachi Vehicle Energy, Ltd.
- 5.56. Zhejiang Tianneng Energy Technology Co., Ltd
- 5.57. Toshiba
- 5.58. Features of Toshiba's SCIB
- 5.59. Production plant for Toshiba's SCIB
- 5.60. Toshiba R&D activities
6. BATTERY DYNAMICS IN ELECTRIC BUSES
- 6.1. Battery capacity vs Gross vehicle weight
- 6.2. Battery capacity vs Passenger-range
- 6.3. Passenger capacity vs e-bus weight
- 6.4. Li-ion battery sales volume based on capacity
- 6.5. Li-ion battery sales, MWh for electric bus, 2017
- 6.6. Li-ion batteries used in electric buses, 2017 (MWh)
- 6.7. Battery market value based on e-bus manufacturers, 2017
- 6.8. Anode material market share
- 6.9. Electric bus manufacturers: sales volume 2017
- 6.10. Market share: electric bus manufacturers, 2017
- 6.11. Market share: Li-ion battery manufacturers for e-buses
7. MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2028
- 7.1. Sales volume forecast for large electric buses
- 7.2. Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 unit price $k
- 7.3. Electric bus market value, 2018-2028
- 7.4. LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - buses
- 7.5. Battery market of Li-ion variant by % sales volume
- 7.6. Assumptions for the "business-as-usual" forecast
- 7.7. Battery market of anode chemistry by % sales volume
- 7.8. LIB market forecasts 2018-2028 (in $B/year) - buses
- 7.9. Assumptions on the forecast
8. BUS ENERGY STORAGE BEYOND BATTERIES
- 8.1. Bus energy storage beyond batteries
- 8.2. Performance Comparisons 1
- 8.3. Vehicles where Li-ion battery has been replaced by supercapacitors
- 8.4. Energy storage devices and their characteristics
- 8.5. Operational principles of different systems
- 8.6. Fuel cells as range extenders
- 8.7. Fuel cells for traction
- 8.8. Problems with fuel cells
- 8.9. Roadmaps have not been met
- 8.10. Performance Comparisons 2
- 8.11. Supercapacitors are often used across Li-ion batteries
- 8.12. Car or bus bodywork becomes a supercapacitor !
- 8.13. Supercapacitors to Li-ion batteries - a spectrum of functional tailoring
- 8.14. Flywheels - What are they? Who likes them?
- 8.15. Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
- 8.16. Flywheel KERS mechanical
- 8.17. Flywheel scope for mechanical versions
9. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
10. ANALYSIS OF OVER 140 LITHIUM-BASED RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MANUFACTURERS
- 10.1. Methodology
- 10.2. Top LIB producers in 2016 and public announcements
- 10.3. Geographical distribution
- 10.4. Cathode and anode choices
- 10.5. Cathode preferences by country of manufacturing
- 10.6. Cathode choice vs. company size and output
- 10.7. Cell format
- 10.8. LIB markets - geographical focus