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市場調査レポート

未来の携帯電話技術と機能

Future Mobile Phone / Cell Phone Technology and Functions 2014-2024

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 290062
出版日 ページ情報 英文 234 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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未来の携帯電話技術と機能 Future Mobile Phone / Cell Phone Technology and Functions 2014-2024
出版日: 2014年03月01日 ページ情報: 英文 234 Pages

当商品の販売は、2014年05月31日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

近年携帯電話には、センサーなどさまざまな部品が組み込まれるようになっています。しかし、特定の目的に対応するため採用されたこれらの部品が予想もされなかったような形で他の用途に用いられるケースは少なくありません。慣性ナビゲーションシステムに使われている気圧計やジャイロスコープは、この代表的な例といえるでしょう。このため、未来の携帯電話についての完全な見通しを示すのは不可能であり、既存の部品や将来開発される部品を組み合わせたセンサーフュージョンや構造部品がどのようなものになるのか性格に予測するのも困難です。

当レポートは、業界関係者へのインタビュー、イベントへの参加、各種データの調査と綿密な分析などの作業に基づき、携帯電話にまつわる多くの重要なトレンドや未対応のニーズ、将来の通信方法などを明らかにしたもので、未来の携帯電話を支える新技術も取り上げ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリーと結論

  • 調査範囲
  • 将来のニーズ
  • 必要な技術
  • 健康診断などの機能
  • センサーフュージョン
  • モノのインターネット(IoT)
  • 屋内測位システム(IPS)
  • 近距離無線通信(NFC)
  • 主な実現技術−ハードウェア
  • 環境発電
  • 進歩の障害
  • 問題点

第2章 イントロダクション

  • 夢と現実
  • 携帯電話の改良

第3章 ヒューマンインタフェースの改善と医療分野の用途

  • 機器との対話が可能な人の感覚器官
  • 巻き取り可能なスクリーン、太陽電池、キーボード
  • 医療分野の用途
    • 食中毒
    • 診断機能
  • 音声

第4章 小さく巻き取ることができるディスプレイ技術

  • 技術の概要
  • フレキシブル透明導電体フィルム
  • 技術の評価
  • 市場の評価
  • 主要企業
  • フレキシブル/コンフォーマルエレクトロニクスの市場

第5章 携帯電話のセンサーフュージョンとモノのインターネット(IoT)

  • センサーフュージョン
  • モノのインターネット(IoT)
  • インテリジェントコンテキシャルセンサー
  • NFCを利用したセンサーフュージョン

第6章 屋内測位システム(IPS)

  • In-Location Alliance
  • RTLS
  • 範囲
  • RTLSとIPSを利用した測位技術の原理
  • インフラストラクチャの選択
  • インフラストラクチャが不要な技術という選択肢
  • 強化されたインフラストラクチャ
  • 専用インフラストラクチャ
  • IPSインフラストラクチャのトレンド
  • 位置特定のための信号解釈の選択
  • 用途、危険性、バリューチェーン
  • IPS/RTLSについてのインタビュー
    • CSR
    • Decawave
    • Ekahau
    • In-Location Alliance
    • Redpine Signals
    • Ubisense

第7章 近距離無線通信(NFC)

  • NFC普及の見通し
  • 2014年から2024年までの予測
  • NFCの目的
  • NFC Forum
  • フランスのニースで開催されたNFC World Congress 2013で得られた知識
  • NFCについてのインタビュー
    • Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc
    • MeaWallet
    • Nissin Czech Republic
    • RBR
    • Smart-TEC
    • Tag & Play
    • Ticketmobile
    • 日本でのインタビュー

第8章 プリンテッド/プリンタブルエレクトロニクスおよび電気機器

  • フレキシブルOLEDディスプレイ
  • フレキシブルメモリー
  • フレキシブルトランジスター
  • フレキシブルバッテリー
  • グラフェン
  • 新たなメタライズインク
  • プリンテッドエレクトロニクスと関連技術についてのインタビュー
    • Bayer MaterialScience - Artificial Muscle Inc
    • CAP-XX
    • ISORG
    • KWJ Engineering Inc
    • Paper Battery Co
    • Peratech Ltd
    • Synkera Technologies Inc
    • Tactonic
  • IDTechExのプリンテッドエレクトロニクスポータル

第9章 未来の電力およびその他の新技術

  • 新たな電池とスーパーキャパシター技術
  • 太陽電池技術とアフリカ
  • 非接触誘導充電
  • 3Dプリンター
  • フレキシブル触覚キーボード
  • スキャナー、プリンター、分離フレキシブルディスプレイ、環境発電、バッテリー最適化ツール
  • 環境発電に対応可能な電子機器の進歩

付録1:用語集

図表

目次

"Over 2.3 billion NFC-enabled mobile phones will be sold in 2024."

This report concerns the future technologies and functions of mobile phones (cell phones) and, to a lesser extent, the allied products phablets and tablets. The primary emphasis is on what will become possible in the next decade. The potential for mobile phones seems almost limitless so, obviously, no one report can cover everything. Indeed, sensors and other components in a phone may be introduced for one purpose and then used for others in unforeseen ways. Barometers and gyroscopes being used for inertial navigation are examples of this. In other words no one can predict all the things a mobile phone will perform or even how its existing and future parts will combine in "sensor fusion", "structural components" and so on, to achieve new this.

Nonetheless, this report clarifies many key trends, unfulfilled needs and future routes to commercialisation. This vision is based on a plethora of interviews, event attendance, data searches and careful analysis by the PhD level researchers at IDTechEx. It recognises that improving the hardware and firmware are just as important as adding new infrastructure such as ubiquitous contactless charging and Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS).

What is the importance of forthcoming functions and enabling technologies such as Indoor Positioning Systems (IPS), the Internet of Things (IoT) and printed electronics? For the next decade, what is the market for planned tightly-rollable displays and key parts of them such as transparent conductive films, of which use in mobile phones forms just a part? How can the human interface be radically improved and the intolerably brief availability of today's smart phones before recharging? What new components will be useful in mobile phones and how will they merge? It is all here with the main emphasis on what is coming beyond improved integrated circuits.

This is the master, overall summary report of the new IDTechEx Mobile Phone series of reports which has in it reports going in depth into specifics. For example, there are reports separately covering IPS, NFC, energy harvesting, OLED displays, stretchable electronics and printed electronics.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Scope
    • 1.1.1. Breakneck speed
    • 1.1.2. Needs driven by new behaviour and demographics
  • 1.2. Future needs
  • 1.3. Technology required
  • 1.4. Hardware is key for future mobile phones
    • 1.4.1. Unique hardware gains market share
    • 1.4.2. Sensor fusion for positioning
    • 1.4.3. Inertial navigation
    • 1.4.4. Tipping the balance
    • 1.4.5. The race for flexible phones
  • 1.5. Healthcare diagnostics and more
  • 1.6. Sensor fusion
  • 1.7. Internet of Things
  • 1.8. Indoor Positioning Systems IPS
    • 1.8.2. Location then full positioning even in 3D
  • 1.9. Near Field Communication NFC
  • 1.10. Key enabling technologies - hardware
  • 1.11. Electrical power, multiple energy harvesting
  • 1.12. Impediments to progress
  • 1.13. The dark side
    • 1.13.1. Increased ubiquity, increased danger
    • 1.13.2. Take privacy more seriously
    • 1.13.3. Stop harming children
    • 1.13.4. Stop harming adults

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Dreams and realities
  • 2.2. Mobile phone improvements - responses from general survey
  • 2.3. Expert opinions

3. IMPROVED HUMAN INTERFACE AND HEALTHCARE

  • 3.1. Human senses that can interact with a device or be a feature
    • 3.1.1. What is wanted?
  • 3.2. Flexible phones: ruggedness and more
  • 3.3. Roll out screen, photovoltaics, keyboard
  • 3.4. Wearable electronics
    • 3.4.1. Derivative technology
    • 3.4.2. Advantages of wearable electronics
    • 3.4.3. Two basic types of wearable electronics
    • 3.4.4. Considerable evidence of rapid adoption to come
    • 3.4.5. Rapid increase in investment
    • 3.4.6. Projections
  • 3.5. Healthcare
    • 3.5.1. Food poisoning
    • 3.5.2. Diagnostics and more
  • 3.6. Sound
    • 3.6.1. Sound fidelity and localisation
    • 3.6.2. Throat tattoo and lie detector

4. TIGHTLY ROLLABLE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY

  • 4.1. Summary of technologies
  • 4.2. Flexible transparent conducting film
  • 4.3. Technology Assessment
  • 4.4. Market Assessment
  • 4.5. Players
  • 4.6. Market for flexible and conformal electronics

5. PHONE SENSOR FUSION & INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT)

  • 5.1. Sensor fusion
  • 5.2. Internet of Things IoT
  • 5.3. Intelligent contextual sensing
  • 5.4. Sensor fusion leveraging NFC

6. INDOOR POSITIONING SYSTEMS (IPS)

  • 6.1. In-Location Alliance
  • 6.2. RTLS
  • 6.3. Ranges
  • 6.4. Principles of locating using RTLS and IPS
  • 6.5. Choice of infrastructure
  • 6.6. No infrastructure as an option
    • 6.6.1. Inertial/ dead reckoning measurements
    • 6.6.2. Single beam RSSI
  • 6.7. Enhanced infrastructure
  • 6.8. Dedicated infrastructure
  • 6.9. Trend for IPS infrastructure
  • 6.10. Choices of signal interpretation to find position
  • 6.11. Applications, compromises and value chain
  • 6.12. IPS/RTLS Interviews
    • 6.12.1. CSR (formerly Cambridge Silicon Radio) USA
    • 6.12.2. Decawave Ireland
    • 6.12.3. Ekahau Finland
    • 6.12.4. In-Location Alliance UK
    • 6.12.5. Redpine Signals USA
    • 6.12.6. Ubisense UK

7. NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION

  • 7.1. Timelines for NFC adoption
  • 7.2. Forecasts 2014-2024
  • 7.3. The purpose of NFC
  • 7.4. NFC Forum
  • 7.5. Lessons from NFC World Congress Nice France September 2013
  • 7.6. NFC Interviews
    • 7.6.1. Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc, USA
    • 7.6.2. MeaWallet, Norway
    • 7.6.3. Nissin Czech Republic
    • 7.6.4. RBR, UK
    • 7.6.5. Smart-TEC, Germany
    • 7.6.6. Tag & Play, France
    • 7.6.7. Ticketmobile, Norway
    • 7.6.8. Interview in Japan

8. PRINTED AND PRINTABLE ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRICS

  • 8.1. Flexible OLED displays
  • 8.2. Flexible memory
  • 8.3. Flexible transistors
  • 8.4. Flexible batteries
  • 8.5. Graphene
  • 8.6. Emerging metallisation inks
  • 8.7. Wearable electronics
  • 8.8. Printed electronics and allied interviews
    • 8.8.1. Bayer MaterialScience - Artificial Muscle Inc Germany
    • 8.8.2. CAP-XX Australia
    • 8.8.3. ISORG France
    • 8.8.4. KWJ Engineering Inc USA
    • 8.8.5. Paper Battery Co USA
    • 8.8.6. Peratech Ltd UK
    • 8.8.7. Synkera Technologies Inc USA
    • 8.8.8. Tactonic
  • 8.9. IDTechEx Printed Electronics Portal

9. FUTURE ELECTRICAL POWER AND OTHER EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 9.1. New battery and supercapacitor technologies
  • 9.2. Photovoltaics technologies and Africa
  • 9.3. Contactless inductive charging
  • 9.4. 3D Printing
  • 9.5. Flexible haptic keyboards
  • 9.6. Scanner, printer, separate flexible display and energy harvesting, battery boosters
  • 9.7. Progress with harvesting tolerant electronics

APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY

IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS

IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY

TABLES

  • 1.1. Examples of identified future needs and need for improved hardware/firmware and/or system/infrastructure changes are needed to achieve them
  • 1.2. Some emerging mobile phone candidate technologies and the demands they may help to satisfy in the future
  • 2.1. Expert forecasts in the last few months of future changes in mobile phones
  • 3.1. Advantages of wearable electronics
  • 3.2. The main wearable technology market sectors 2014-2024
  • 3.3. Some of the investment in wearable technology 2013-4
  • 3.4. Global number of wearable electronics devices 2014-2024
  • 4.1. Candidates for ITO replacement and flexible screens
  • 4.2. Benchmarking different TCF and TCG technologies on the basis of sheet resistance, optical transmission, ease of customisation, haze, ease of patterning, thinness, stability, flexibility, reflection and low cost. The technology com
  • 4.3. Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2012-2022
  • 6.2. Official list of In-Location members
  • 6.3. RTLS and IPS compared in terms of other names used, usual purpose today, standards, frequencies, typical users involved and typical suppliers through the value chain.
  • 6.4. Overview of indoor positioning technologies
  • 6.5. Comparison of the three generations of active RFID
  • 6.6. Defining features of the three generations of active RFID
  • 6.7. Choices of infrastructure
  • 6.8. Comparison of options for basic measuring principle to find position
  • 6.9. Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2012-2023
  • 6.10. Primary market objective for IPS vs RTLS
  • 7.1. Important milestones in the adoption and use of NFC 2014-2024
  • 7.2. IDTechEx conclusions about the status and potential of NFC technology
  • 7.3. Comments by supporters and skeptics of NFC in 2013
  • 7.4. Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
  • 7.5. Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
  • 7.6. Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses
  • 9.1. 142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel
  • 9.2. Number, unit value ex-factory and total market value rounded of WPT hardware sold for consumer electronics worldwide 2012-2022

FIGURES

  • 1.1. Some statistics relevant to the potential for mobile phone use
  • 1.2. Tightly rollable display promised by Samsung
  • 1.3. Structure of the value offering of IPS vs RTLS
  • 1.4. IPS principle of operation
  • 1.5. GPS location (left) compared with the more detailed IPS (right)
  • 1.6. Digital cash options
  • 1.7. Power requirements of small electronic products including Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and GSM mobile phones and the types of battery employed
  • 3.1. Samsung promise of a mobile phone derivative with tightly rollable display
  • 3.2. Polymer Vision concept of a PDA with rollable display
  • 3.3. Two basic types of wearable electronics - the devices and the more futuristic woven smart textiles and smart apparel
  • 3.4. Where will it be on your body?
  • 4.1. Examples of flexible displays
  • 4.2. TCF technology market share in the smart phone sector
  • 4.3. Mobile phones
  • 4.4. Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2012-2022
  • 5.1. ISMB gesture recognition by sensor fusion
  • 6.1. Structure of the value offering of IPS vs RTLS
  • 6.2. IPS principle of operation
  • 6.3. GPS location shown left compared with the more detailed IPS right
  • 6.4. RTLS schematic
  • 6.5. Samsung RTLS objectives
  • 6.6. RTLS, IPS and OPS compared
  • 6.7. Some options for location systems from very short range to long range, showing RTLS and IPS
  • 6.8. Overview of indoor technologies in dependence on accuracy and coverage
  • 6.9. User requirements left with important technical parameters of less interest to the user right
  • 6.10. Possible area of deployment vs system cost
  • 6.11. Tolerance of faults and unauthorised repositioning vs system cost
  • 6.12. Tag cost today vs system cost
  • 6.13. Number of tags per interrogator vs system cost
  • 6.14. Infrastructure cost vs system cost
  • 6.15. WSN system diagram where the gateway can be a cell phone in future
  • 6.16. The most popular forms of RTLS based on RFID
  • 6.17. RFID and other appropriate systems through the traditional supply chain
  • 6.18. RFID value chain
  • 6.19. Examples of technologies derived from and/or interfacing with active RFID
  • 6.20. Range vs approximate up-front cost of RTLS tags based on different frequencies and protocols compared with passive (no battery) RFID
  • 6.21. Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2012-2023
  • 6.22. Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application
  • 6.23. Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey.
  • 6.24. Basic RF measuring principle - relative popularity vs ultrasound
  • 7.1. Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples
  • 7.2. Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
  • 7.3. Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
  • 7.4. Retrevo Pulse study of NFC payment attitudes
  • 7.5. Data rate vs range for short range radio protocols
  • 7.6. Scope of the NFC Forum
  • 7.7. Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain
  • 7.8. NFC in the trough of disillusionment
  • 7.9. Samsung TecTiles
  • 7.10. Attempt to link the Internet of Things with NFC
  • 7.11. Many options for a typical interrogation
  • 7.12. Store Electronic Systems activity in stores up to and including NFC enabled shelf edge devices
  • 7.13. Store Electronic Systems' NFC perception and achievements
  • 7.14. Smart meter potential revealed
  • 7.15. ETRI Programmable NFC sensor card
  • 7.16. NFC labels on display
  • 7.17. Murata and Todo Kogyo ultra-small NFC tags
  • 7.18. Screen with NFC enabled images where the NFC tags can be repurposed and videos etc can be triggered on the screen - useful for merchandising
  • 7.19. V Wand - NFC to item then Bluetooth to tablet
  • 7.20. Number of transaction cards on issue globally 2012 and 2018
  • 7.21. LEGIC experience of NFC phones for secure access and payment
  • 8.1. Add Vision process
  • 8.2. Thinfilm printed memory
  • 8.3. PragmatIC capability
  • 8.4. IDTechEx view of potential for graphene in electronics and electrics.
  • 8.5. Plastic Logic view of wearables
  • 8.6. Plastic foil of organic photodetectors
  • 8.7. Printed temperature sensor
  • 8.8. OPD for object detection by smart systems: logistics, retail, Point-Of-Sales display
  • 9.1. IDTechEx view of OPV
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