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電気バスの世界市場 (2018-2038年):予測・技術ロードマップ・企業評価

Electric Buses 2018-2038: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 235006
出版日 ページ情報 英文 180 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=113.05円で換算しております。
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電気バスの世界市場 (2018-2038年):予測・技術ロードマップ・企業評価 Electric Buses 2018-2038: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment
出版日: 2017年07月11日 ページ情報: 英文 180 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界の電気バス市場について調査し、世界の公共輸送状況、自動車産業、電気バスのダイナミクス、主要地域・国における電気バス市場の状況・販売動向、および技術動向とその展望などを分析しており、主要なハイブリッドバスメーカー・純電気バスメーカーのプロファイルとともに、お届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー・総論

第2章 イントロダクション

  • 繁栄、パーキングおよび下手な計画
  • 世界の状況:公共輸送
  • 救済するための技術
    • 電化、自律型、シェアリング
    • 相乗効果
    • 4つの要素の影響
    • 失敗に関係なく一貫性のある強力な政策が必要
  • 排ガスについて何が起きているか?
  • 電気バスのダイナミクス
  • 自動車産業の分析
    • 世界の自動車生産台数
    • 新規商用車登録台数または販売数は、ほとんど変化が無いが、東アジアにおいて力強い成長
    • 世界の自動車メーカーランキング:生産台数別
    • 大型バス販売の記録は僅かな伸びを示す
    • 最大のバスメーカー:台数別

第3章 中国の電気輸送バス、コーチ、シャトル

  • Yutongおよび中国におけるバスの状況
  • 中国は最先端技術およびバス技術を採用
  • 中国の電気バスにおける広範な技術進歩
  • 中国の大型・中型バス販売
  • 中国のハイブリッドバス販売・ニュース
  • 中国のEバス販売台数: Yutong、Zhongtong および BYD が力強く成長
  • 業績比較
  • 第13次5ヵ年計画 (ハイブリッド & 電気バス)
  • 中国の充電ステーション・バス助成金比率
  • Eバイクの制限がバスの助けに
  • BYD:最も目覚ましい世界展開を有する中国の電気バスメーカー

第4章 インドの電気輸送バス、コーチ、シャトル

第5章 南北アメリカの電気輸送バス、コーチ、シャトル

第6章 北米

第7章 欧州

第8章 スクールバス

  • 北米
  • 中国:大きな可能性、しかしまだあまり起こっていない
  • スクールバス:米国と中国の比較

第9章 電気バス技術とその将来

  • パワートレイン
  • ハイブリッドバスのバリューチェーン
  • 純電気パワートレインはシンプルであり、後に多くのティア1サプライヤーを回避
  • 純電気自動車においても、パワーエレクトロニクスはバッテリー以上に重要に
  • ストラクチュラルエレクトロニクスがバスに到来
  • 多くの設計ソリューションは同じタイプのバスを持続させる
  • UITP および MB :バス技術のサマリー
  • より小型のバスが到来
  • 自律型バスおよびバス-タクシー
  • バス向け電動トラクションモーターの背景
  • トラクションバッテリー
  • ハイブリッドバス向けトラクションスーパーキャパシター
  • 純電気バス向けトラクションスーパーキャパシター
  • ソフトウェアおよびサービス:Citymapper スマートバスの例
  • 自律型
  • バッテリーの充電
  • エネルギー自給へと向かう:バス走行距離の増加
  • 急進的なイノベーション
  • エネルギー自給型電気自動車:EIV

第10章 ハイブリッドバスメーカー86社

第11章 純電気バスメーカー80社

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目次

Electric Buses Reinvented: $500 Billion Market

This report of over 150 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.

Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap for 2018-2038. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.

In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.

The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2018-2028 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.

The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.

Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.

Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Focus of this report
  • 1.2. Types of bus
  • 1.3. Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable
  • 1.4. Why adopt buses?
  • 1.5. Peak in car sales k - goodbye to many things
  • 1.6. Why go electric?
    • 1.6.1. Drivers of bus electrification
    • 1.6.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
    • 1.6.3. Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
  • 1.7. Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now
  • 1.8. Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten
    • 1.8.1. Powertrain trend
    • 1.8.2. Value chain rewritten
  • 1.9. Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn
  • 1.10. Market drivers
    • 1.10.1. Prosperity collides with urbanisation
    • 1.10.2. Changes in society and technology feed off each other
  • 1.11. Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
    • 1.11.1. Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 number
    • 1.11.2. Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 unit price $k
    • 1.11.3. Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 $ billion market value
    • 1.11.4. Possible scenario for pure electric bus sales by region number k in 2030
    • 1.11.5. Backup data 2018 orders and expansion: examples
    • 1.11.6. Backup data 2019/2021 orders and advances: examples
  • 1.12. League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses
  • 1.13. China buses go global: cost advantages
    • 1.13.1. China cost advantage plotted
    • 1.13.2. How can bus manufacturers outside China compete?
  • 1.14. Technologies important for buses 2018-2028
  • 1.15. Bus technology timeline 2018-2040
  • 1.16. Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
  • 1.17. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2017
  • 1.18. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2018
  • 1.19. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
  • 1.20. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
  • 1.21. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
  • 1.22. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022 and beyond

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Prosperity, parking and bad planning
  • 2.2. Global situation: public transport
    • 2.2.1. Cities lead
    • 2.2.2. Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
    • 2.2.3. On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
  • 2.3. Technology to the rescue
    • 2.3.1. Electrification, autonomy, sharing
    • 2.3.2. Synergy
    • 2.3.3. Effect of four elements in 2050
    • 2.3.4. Consistently strong policies needed regardless of setbacks
  • 2.4. What is happening about emissions?
    • 2.4.1. Cheating but improving
    • 2.4.2. Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
  • 2.5. Electric bus dynamics
  • 2.6. Anatomy of the automotive industry
    • 2.6.1. Global automotive production 2016
    • 2.6.2. New Commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
    • 2.6.3. Global ranking of automotive manufacturers by number made 2015 OICA
    • 2.6.4. Patchy recording of heavy bus sales shows slight growth
    • 2.6.5. Largest bus manufacturers by number to 2015

3. CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 3.1. Yutong and the story of buses in China
    • 3.1.1. Yutong bus sales vs competition in 2015
    • 3.1.2. Yutong positioning in 2017
  • 3.2. China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
  • 3.3. Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
  • 3.4. China large and medium bus sales 2014/2015
  • 3.5. China hybrid bus sales and news 2014/2015
  • 3.6. E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
  • 3.7. Performance in 2017 compared
  • 3.8. Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
  • 3.9. China charging station and bus % subsidies
  • 3.10. Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
  • 3.11. BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
    • 3.11.1. Global rollout

4. INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 4.1. Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
  • 4.2. India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances

5. AMERICAS TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 5.1. Latin America - large numbers

6. NORTH AMERICA

  • 6.1. Unique mix
  • 6.2. Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra

7. EUROPE

  • 7.1.1. Example of excellence: Solaris bus & coach Poland

8. SCHOOL BUSES

  • 8.1. North America
    • 8.1.1. Overview
    • 8.1.2. School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
    • 8.1.3. US school bus statistics 2016
    • 8.1.4. USA: world's largest school bus fleet
    • 8.1.5. Commentary
    • 8.1.6. Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
    • 8.1.7. Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
    • 8.1.8. US leading school bus manufacturers
    • 8.1.9. School bus classification and examples
    • 8.1.10. US school bus examples
  • 8.2. China: big potential, not much happening yet
  • 8.3. School buses: USA and China compared

9. ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS FUTURE

  • 9.1. Powertrains
    • 9.1.1. Comparison of powertrain options
    • 9.1.2. 48V mild hybrid
    • 9.1.3. How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form
    • 9.1.4. Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
    • 9.1.5. Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
  • 9.2. Value chain of hybrid buses
  • 9.3. Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
  • 9.4. Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
  • 9.5. Structural electronics will come to buses
  • 9.6. 8.6 Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
  • 9.7. UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
  • 9.8. Here come more small buses
  • 9.9. Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
    • 9.9.1. Overview
    • 9.9.2. 6POD concept
    • 9.9.3. Large smart windows needed
  • 9.10. Electric traction motors for buses in context
    • 9.10.1. Overview
    • 9.10.2. Example BYD
    • 9.10.3. No differential or prop shaft
    • 9.10.4. Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
    • 9.10.5. New electric drivetrain from partners UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo
  • 9.11. Traction batteries
  • 9.12. Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
  • 9.13. Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
  • 9.14. Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
  • 9.15. Autonomy
    • 9.15.1. Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
    • 9.15.2. Hardware replaced by software & content
    • 9.15.3. Hype curve for autonomy today
    • 9.15.4. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
    • 9.15.5. Gateway autonomous bus UK
    • 9.15.6. IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
  • 9.16. Charging the battery
    • 9.16.1. Overview
    • 9.16.2. Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
    • 9.16.3. Contactless charging
    • 9.16.4. Qualcomm, FABRIC, Honda
    • 9.16.5. Dynamic charging future
  • 9.17. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
  • 9.18. Radical innovation
    • 9.18.1. Transit Elevated Bus TEV rides above traffic
    • 9.18.2. Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
  • 9.19. Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV
    • 9.19.1. Disruptive
    • 9.19.2. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
    • 9.19.3. Energy positive large buses will come

10. 86 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS

11. 80 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

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