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電気バスの世界市場 (2016〜2026年):予測・技術ロードマップ・企業評価

Electric Buses 2016-2026: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

発行 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品コード 235006
出版日 ページ情報 英文 261 Pages, 37 Tables, 75 Figures
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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電気バスの世界市場 (2016〜2026年):予測・技術ロードマップ・企業評価 Electric Buses 2016-2026: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment
出版日: 2016年09月01日 ページ情報: 英文 261 Pages, 37 Tables, 75 Figures
概要

業務用・商業用の電気自動車の市場は、自動車市場全体と似たような傾向・動向を示しますが、より迅速・頻繁に技術開発が実施され、またバリューチェーン全体の収益率も高くなっています。特に重要度が高いのがバスで、価格反応度が低いため、自動車市場全体よりも先に技術開発の成果が適用されます。世界の電気バス市場では近年、急速な技術開発・導入とコスト優位性を背景に、中国が巨大な市場シェアを確保しています。

当レポートでは、世界の電気バスの最新の技術・市場動向や、今後の市場展望について分析し、今後10年間の市場規模の動向見通しや、パワートレイン別・地域別の詳細動向、現在までの技術革新 (イノベーション) の取り組み・成果や今後の進展見通し、パワートレイン別 (ハイブリッドバス、(完全) 電気バス、燃料電池バス) の詳細な技術・市場動向、各国市場 (特に中国) の詳細動向、業界関係者へのインタビュー、今後の市場機会などについて調査・考察しております。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリーと結論

  • 概要
  • 技術選択の概要
  • 統計上の課題
  • 電気バスの実際の/想定される市場規模
  • 中国市場での価格/業績
  • 市場予測 (今後11年間分):主な受注動向・技術のタイムライン
  • 電気バス (8トン以上) の市場予測:パワートレイン別 (今後11年間分:台数・1台当たり価格・市場規模)
  • 電気バス (8トン以上) の市場予測:アジア太平洋地域/北米/欧州/その他
  • 電気バス (8トン以下) の市場予測 (今後11年間分)
  • 電気バス (8トン以下) の市場予測 (今後11年間分:台数・1台当たり価格・市場規模)
  • コスト動向:中国をも急速に巻き込む
  • 市場の促進要因と障害
  • 地域ごとの違い
  • 中国・インドと都市部
  • 劇的な変化
  • 類似型バスにとっては実際にグローバルな市場
  • 大型電気バス:初の大型受注案件
  • 大型電気バスの需要はまだ小さいが、中国では大きい
  • バリューチェーンとパワートレイン
  • ハイブリッドバスから電気バスへの移行
  • 技術オプションの相対的な重要性
  • 技術面での意見の相違
  • 燃料電池バス:進歩と可能性
  • 関連統計:自動車産業・バス市場の全体的動向
    • 自動車産業
    • スクールバス
    • 最大手のバスメーカー
    • 市場の最新動向 (過去3年間分)
  • 原油価格下落 (2015年) の電気自動車市場への影響

第2章 イントロダクション

  • 都市部のロジスティクスの傾向
  • 電気自動車への移行の動き
  • 車種別のモーター技術
    • スイッチトリラクタンスモーター:革新的な走行用モーター技術となるのか?
    • レアアースを使用せずに走行用モーターを製造するための3つの方法
  • リチウムイオン電池の選択
    • リチウムイオン電池メーカー (全142社):化学的特質・形態・業績
  • 世界的状況:近年の主な動き
    • オーストラリア
    • 中国
    • インド
    • 北米
  • 欧州
    • 英国
    • ドイツ
    • スウェーデン、スイス
    • ABB:断続的・架線式の充電方法
    • トルコ
  • アジア太平洋地域
  • ラテンアメリカ
  • アフリカ・中東
  • 電気自動車メーカーの件数
  • 電化
  • 市場変化の促進要因

第3章 中国の電気バス

  • 中国の自動車産業
  • 中国のバス市場
    • 中国全土のバス販売台数 (過去3年間分)
    • 中国の小型バス市場
    • 中国の中型バス市場
    • 中国の大型バス市場
  • よりクリーンな自動車への移行
  • 中国国内の電気自動車の販売台数 (過去3年間分)
    • 電気バスの政策
  • プラグイン式電気自動車の販売台数
  • 新エネルギー式自動車 (NEV) の販売台数
  • 技術の「蛙飛び」現象
  • IDTechExによる評価:中国のバス技術
    • 最新型電気バスにおける最先端技術
    • 問題点
    • 中国とレアアース (希土類)
  • 中国の燃料電池業界の動向 (全35社分)
  • 中国のバス企業と各地域市場の最新動向
    • BYD
    • BYDのバス事業の進展と計画
    • 第5回新エネルギー車展示会 (北京、2014年11月)

第4章 ハイブリッドバスメーカーの分析

  • 概要
  • ハイブリッドバスメーカーの分析:所在地別
  • ハイブリッドバスメーカーの比較 (全86社分):本社、バス/電気バス生産台数、イメージ、事例、評価

第5章 電気バスメーカーの分析

  • 概要
  • 電気バスメーカーの分析:所在地別
  • 電気バスメーカーの比較 (全80社分):本社、バス/電気バス生産台数、イメージ、事例、評価
  • Kalsruheでの電気バスの評価 (2015年)

第6章 燃料電池バス:92件の試験から得られた教訓

  • 技術
  • 燃料電池バスはDaimlerが2010年に発売を予定したが、遅延している
  • 発売に失敗した理由
  • 30年間の試行錯誤の歴史
  • Ballard:多大な損害の上での勝利
  • 燃料電池車のトラブルと、燃料電池バスへの悪影響
  • 新たな競合相手
  • 市場機会の縮小
  • 弱点の一覧
  • 利点
  • Ballardのアプローチ
  • 燃料電池の小型化:試験回数の少なさと成果の乏しさ
  • 計画の停滞
  • 米国での目標
  • 米国での評価
  • 主な観察結果
  • Daimlerの現在の計画
  • 正当な理由がついた懐疑論
  • Hyundaiの進歩
  • 燃料電池バスの試験動向 (1990〜2015年)
  • 燃料電池バスの試験動向 (2011〜2015年)
  • 欧州諸国での参入
  • 米国での参入
  • 米国で輸送サービスに現在使われている燃料電池バスの事例
  • 中国での参入

第7章 インタビューの概略 (一部)

  • Acal Energy (英国)
  • Aleees (台湾)
  • Bombardier (ドイツ)、Qualcomm (米国)
  • Ebusco (オランダ)
  • Green GT (フランス)
  • Hyundai (韓国)
  • IFEVS (イタリア)
  • ITRI (台湾)
  • 日本ケミコン (日本)
  • Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH (ドイツ)
  • 太陽誘電・JMエナジー (日本)
  • University of California Davis (米国)

図表

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目次

The market for medium and large hybrid and pure electric buses will be over $132 billion in 2026.

Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, the subject of this report, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive. In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2026. Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2015-6 this unique report is the only up to date in depth appraisal of the issues and trends including a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the greener, more efficient pure electric buses prove fit for prime time and over one quarter of one million e-buses are purchased in 2026 due to both legal push and market pull.

Forecasts are for number, unit price and market value 2016-2026 by region, powertrain and pure electric vs hybrid. Over 8t and under 8t are analysed in the 240+ pages of original summary and analysis, easily grasped by those with limited time. The information has been appraised by our PhD level analysts with long experience and an intensive program of travel to check out the facts. Worldwide, over 100 manufacturers and many recent interviews are covered including EV events in Japan, Taiwan, the USA, UK and Germany in the last few months. This is essential because the subject is moving so fast with the strong technologies, regions, manufacturers etc changing rapidly.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Overview
  • 1.2. Summary of technical preferences
  • 1.3. Statistics issues
  • 1.4. Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
  • 1.5. Chinese price/performance
  • 1.6. Forecast 2016-2026 with key orders, technology timelines
  • 1.7. Electric bus >8t forecast by powertrain 2016-2026, number, unit value, market value
  • 1.8. Forecast by territory for buses >8t for APAC, NA, Europe, other
  • 1.9. Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2016-2026
  • 1.10. Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2016-2026, number, unit price, market value
  • 1.11. Cost trends - China ready to pounce
  • 1.12. Market drivers and impediments
  • 1.13. Regional differences
  • 1.14. China, India and cities
  • 1.15. Radical change
  • 1.16. Truly global market for similar buses
  • 1.17. Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
  • 1.18. Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
  • 1.19. Value chain and powertrain
  • 1.20. Hybrids becoming pure electric
  • 1.21. Relative importance of technical options
  • 1.22. Technology disagreement
  • 1.23. Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
    • 1.23.1. Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses
  • 1.24. Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
    • 1.24.1. Automotive industry
    • 1.24.2. School buses
    • 1.24.3. Largest bus manufacturers
    • 1.24.4. Review of 2012-2014
  • 1.25. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
  • 1.26. E-bus news in 2016
    • 1.26.1. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland - June 2016
    • 1.26.2. Disruptive new bus concepts in 2016
    • 1.26.3. BYD expand electric vehicle plant in the US - September 2016
    • 1.26.4. Lohr linked microbuses - September 2016
  • 1.27. Buses will be taxis will be buses

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Urban logistics trends
  • 2.2. The move to electric
  • 2.3. Motor technology by type of vehicle
    • 2.3.2. Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology?
    • 2.3.3. Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths
  • 2.4. Choice of lithium-ion batteries
    • 2.4.1. 142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes
  • 2.5. Global situation: some recent highlights
    • 2.5.1. Australia
    • 2.5.2. China
    • 2.5.3. India
  • 2.6. North America
    • 2.6.1. Proterra E2 logs over 600miles on a single charge - September 2016
  • 2.7. Europe
    • 2.7.1. UK
    • 2.7.2. Germany
    • 2.7.3. Sweden, Switzerland
    • 2.7.4. ABB intermittent overhead charging
    • 2.7.5. Turkey
  • 2.8. Asia Pacific
  • 2.9. Latin America
  • 2.10. Africa/Middle East
  • 2.11. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles
  • 2.12. Electrification
  • 2.13. Drivers of change
  • 2.14. Another supercapacitor bus stop charging system
  • 2.15. Bus that travels above traffic - August 2016

3. ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA

  • 3.1. China automotive industry
  • 3.2. China bus market
    • 3.2.1. China overall bus sales 2012-2014
    • 3.2.2. China Light Bus Market 2013
    • 3.2.3. China Medium Bus Market in 2013
    • 3.2.4. China Large Bus Market 2013
  • 3.3. Move to cleaner vehicles
  • 3.4. Electric vehicle sales in China 2011-2014
    • 3.4.2. Electric bus policy
  • 3.5. Plug-in EV Sales in 2013
  • 3.6. New Energy Vehicles NEV in 2014
  • 3.7. Leapfrogging technology
  • 3.8. IDTechEx assessment of Chinese bus technology
    • 3.8.1. Advanced technology in latest e-buses
    • 3.8.2. Hiccups
    • 3.8.3. China and rare earths
  • 3.9. Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled
  • 3.10. Chinese bus company and regional news 2014-5
    • 3.10.1. BYD
    • 3.10.2. BYD bus progress and plans
    • 3.10.3. 5th New Energy Vehicle Exhibition Beijing Nov 2014

4. SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS

  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location
  • 4.3. 86 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment.

5. SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

  • 5.1. Overview
  • 5.2. Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location
  • 5.3. 80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment
  • 5.4. Kalsruhe Assessment of E-Buses in 2015

6. FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS

  • 6.1. Technology
  • 6.2. Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed
  • 6.3. Reasons for failure to launch
  • 6.4. Third decade of trials
  • 6.5. Ballard Pyrrhic victory
  • 6.6. Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses
  • 6.7. New competitor
  • 6.8. Window of opportunity closing
  • 6.9. Catalog of shortcomings
  • 6.10. Advances
  • 6.11. Ballard approach
  • 6.12. Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts
  • 6.13. Program slippage
  • 6.14. US Targets
  • 6.15. US evaluations
  • 6.16. Key observation
  • 6.17. Daimler program today
  • 6.18. Justified scepticism
  • 6.19. Hyundai progress
  • 6.20. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015
  • 6.21. Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015
  • 6.22. Commitment in Europe
  • 6.23. Commitment in the USA
    • 6.23.1. Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US
  • 6.24. Commitment in China

7. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS

  • 7.1. ALABC/ILA London January 2016
  • 7.2. Acal Energy UK
  • 7.3. Aleees Taiwan
  • 7.4. Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA
  • 7.5. Ebusco Netherlands
  • 7.6. EV Roadmap 8 USA
  • 7.7. Green GT France
  • 7.8. Hyundai Korea
  • 7.9. IFEVS Italy
  • 7.10. ITRI Taiwan
  • 7.11. Nippon ChemiCon Japan
  • 7.12. PowerHydrant USA
  • 7.13. Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany
  • 7.14. Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan
  • 7.15. University of California Davis USA

APPENDIX - HINO MOTORS ADVANCES HYBRID BUSES

IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY

TABLES

  • 1.1. Market for conventional diesel buses, hybrid and pure electric buses > 8t by rationale, end game in green
  • 1.2. Market for electric buses hybrid and pure electric >8t number K sold by year 2015-2026 with examples of orders, launches, technology roadmap
  • 1.3. Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain number K 2014-2026
  • 1.4. Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain average unit price $K 2014-2026
  • 1.5. Market value for electric buses >8t by powertrain $ billion 2014-2026
  • 1.6. Market by territory number % 2015-2026 for electric buses >8t. Major high cost markets in blue.
  • 1.7. Market for electric buses <8t number K 2015-2026 China, other
  • 1.8. Market for electric buses <8t units K, unit price and total market value $ billion 2016-2026
  • 1.9. Price spread $K of buses >8t by region and technology 2012 and 2015, with exceptional prices excluded. High priced market red. Low priced market green. Significant price decrease bright green.
  • 1.10. Market drivers and impediments are summarised below.
  • 1.11. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
  • 1.12. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth. Green shows strongest market drivers
  • 1.13. League table of EV traction battery manufacturers mWh
  • 1.14. The typical chassis-plus-body value chain of hybrid buses 2015. Main added value shown in green
  • 1.15. Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus
  • 1.16. Trend of pure electric bus value chain - integral bus with structural electronics
  • 1.17. Some of the main technological options compared
  • 1.18. Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
  • 1.19. Some of the factors increasing pure electric bus range 2016-2026
  • 1.20. e-bus drive train technology options compared, with commercially problematic issues highlighted
  • 1.21. 2012 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country from OICA correspondents' survey
  • 1.22. Second quarter YTD 2014 and 2013 production of heavy buses by country
  • 1.23. School bus statistics for USA and China 2015
  • 1.24. First half sales by country for commercial vehicles CV 2013/3/4
  • 1.25. Top five bus manufacturers 2005, 2011, 2015, Chinese in red, with output number of buses >8t
  • 1.26. Domestic bus sales in China in October 2014
  • 1.27. Rank of automotive manufacturers by production in 2013. LCV includes Minibuses," derived from light commercial vehicles, are used for the transport of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat a
  • 1.28. Examples of E-bus news in 2016 with IDTechEx comment
  • 2.1. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
  • 2.2. 142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel
  • 2.3. TOSA bus specification
  • 2.4. TOSA charging infrastructure specification
  • 3.1. 2013 sales of some China-made EVs (numbers are from China Passenger Car Association)
  • 4.1. Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses and powertrains "chassis", country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment
  • 5.1. Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters, bus output, e-bus output 2015 (red under 1,000 yearly, blue 1,000-10,000 yearly, green over 10,000), images, successes, assessment
  • 6.1. Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown brown.
  • 6.2. Examples of PEM fuel cell buses 2011-2015

FIGURES

  • 1.1. Tata Motors CNG hybrid bus in India left and BYD K9 pure electric bus from China right that is the most widely trialled and adopted of its type
  • 1.2. Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain number K 2014-2026
  • 1.3. Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain average unit price $K 2014-2026
  • 1.4. Market for electric buses >8t by powertrain $ billion 2014-2026
  • 1.5. Market by territory number % 2015-2026 for electric buses >8t
  • 1.6. Market for electric buses <8t number K 2015-2026 China, other
  • 1.7. Market for electric buses <8t units K and total market value $ billion
  • 1.8. Ex-factory lowest price range of diesel, hybrid and pure electric 35-90 seat urban buses in China vs North America/ Europe 2012 and 2015. Chinese cost reduction of hybrids is obscured by move to more expensive hybrids (long range
  • 1.9. Passenger travel by bus by region in England.
  • 1.10. Bus size vs fuel consumption
  • 1.11. BYD articulated pure electric Lancaster bus for 120 passengers with 170 km range announced late 2014
  • 1.12. The value chain is changing radically due to vehicle design being changed as summarised below. Ladder type hybrid bus chassis top
  • 1.13. Structural supercapacitor as car or bus bodywork, experimental
  • 1.14. UITP summary of technological options for buses
  • 1.15. MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery, the favoured practice in China
  • 1.16. EV powertrain technology roadmap
  • 1.17. Percentage share of 92 fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 by fuel cell manufacturer
  • 1.18. North American sales of school buses 2000-2009, total buses sold
  • 1.19. Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 1.20. Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 1.21. Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 1.22. Autonomous shuttle in Switzerland
  • 1.23. Autonomous electric bus Olli
  • 1.24. Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016
  • 2.1. Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025
  • 2.2. Transport of people 2010-2025
  • 2.3. LCV and urban bus usage hours
  • 2.4. Proterra EcoRide
  • 2.5. Rapid battery charging takes place at every third or fourth bus stop along the pilot project's route, which runs between Geneva airport and the city's exhibition center.
  • 2.6. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2014
  • 2.7. The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2014
  • 2.8. Fuel and energy current fleet.
  • 2.9. Past to present
  • 2.10. Drivers for the development of propulsion systems for bus transport systems
  • 2.11. Program leading to zero emission urban bus systems in Europe
  • 2.12. Transit Elevated Bus
  • 3.1. China automotive market 1999-2020
  • 3.2. Breakdown of automotive market in China 2009-2014
  • 3.3. Overcapacity in China
  • 3.4. Primary foreign competition in China
  • 3.5. Sales and sales growth rates of various bus types in China from January to April
  • 3.6. Market share comparisons for different bus types in China
  • 3.7. Leading Chinese large bus manufacturers Jan-April 2012
  • 3.8. Leading Chinese medium bus manufacturers Jan - April 2012
  • 3.9. Leading Chinese bus manufacturers Jan - April 2012
  • 3.10. Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 3.11. Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 3.12. Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 3.13. China carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes 1960-2040
  • 3.14. BYD illustration of particulates problem in China
  • 3.15. Opportunities in China
  • 3.16. BYD presentation
  • 4.1. Manufacturers of hybrid electric buses by geographical location
  • 5.1. Manufacturers of pure electric buses by geographical location
  • 5.2. Comparison of pure electric 12 meter buses
  • 6.1. Fuel cell electric bus schematic
  • 6.2. Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
  • 6.3. The positioning of the planned Toyota fuel cell hybrid bus FCHV-BUS now delayed
  • 6.4. Daimler fuel cell bus status
  • 6.5. Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles
  • 6.6. Cost potential of fuel cell technology
  • 6.7. Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler
  • 6.8. Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany
  • 6.9. Ballard presentation
  • 6.10. Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators
  • 6.11. Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
  • 6.12. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2010
  • 6.13. Daimler Citaro bus
  • 6.14. Van Hool bus with UTC Power fuel cell
  • 6.15. New Flyer/Bluways bus with Ballard fuel cell
  • 6.16. Proterra bus with Hydrogenics fuel cell (plug-in, battery dominant)
  • 7.1. Aleees bus showing position of two of the battery pack locations and the rollers on which they reside.
  • 7.2. Ebusco publicity
  • 7.3. WAVE bus system
  • 7.4. Range difficulties with pure electric industrial vehicles
  • 7.5. Proterra view on wireless charging vs other charging of buses today
  • 7.6. PowerHydrant
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