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市場調査レポート

デジタルエコノミー2025:通信・インターネット部門のエコシステム

Digital Economy 2025: The Future of Telecom and Internet Ecosystems

発行 IDATE DigiWorld 商品コード 350717
出版日 ページ情報 英文 76 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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デジタルエコノミー2025:通信・インターネット部門のエコシステム Digital Economy 2025: The Future of Telecom and Internet Ecosystems
出版日: 2016年01月27日 ページ情報: 英文 76 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、デジタルエコノミー、特に通信・インターネット部門の将来の展望について調査し、現在の主要動向と不確定要素、複数の発展シナリオの設定とシナリオごとの展望、各シナリオのインターネット接続&サービス収益の予測などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 調査手法

第3章 主要動向

  • 各種技術
    • 5G・LTE・光ファイバーなどの性能強化
    • 低コストセンサー
    • クラウド&仮想化技術
    • よりパワフルなセキュリティソリューション
  • 各種用途
    • オフラインからオンライン、モバイルへ
    • 複数デバイスの所有・同時利用が標準へ
    • 無償 (または低コスト) サービスがますます当たり前に
  • ビジネスモデル
    • バンドリング
    • 区分化
    • 中抜き
    • ソフトウェアライゼーション
    • データのマネタイズ化
  • 法規制
    • 事前から事後への体制の変化
    • より対称な法規制
    • 地域的に異なるルール
  • 業界再編

第4章 主な不確定要素

  • 技術
    • SDN
    • ネットワークの最適化
    • リアルネットワークパフォーマンス
    • IoT (モノのインターネット)
    • ビッグデータ
    • RFID
    • 携帯電話のNFC
    • オープンスタンダード
    • 3Dプリンティング
  • 企業
    • 再編
    • インターネット分野の新企業
  • 投資
    • 農村部でのNGAの展開
    • 新興国におけるアクセスインフラ
    • OTTとインフラ:賃借か自社化か
  • ビジネスモデル
    • パーソナルデータのマネタイズ化
    • 各種産業への拡張
    • サービサイゼーション
    • 2サイドのビジネスモデル
  • 法規制
    • プラットフォーム
    • プライバシー vs 法執行
    • 財政的な最適化
  • 用途
    • プライバシー/セキュリティ上の懸念
    • インターネットサービスへの支払い許容度

第5章 2025年に向けたシナリオ

  • 今後の産業を形成する各側面の定義
    • 実現因子のアベイラビリティ
    • パーソナルデータ利用の強度
  • シナリオマトリックス
  • モールシナリオ
    • シナリオの特徴
    • 産業構造
    • 用途
    • ビジネスモデル
    • 法規制
    • 本シナリオの実現に必要な動向
  • オープンシナリオ
    • シナリオの特徴
    • 産業構造
    • 用途
    • ビジネスモデル
    • 法規制
    • 本シナリオの実現に必要な動向
  • 自動化シナリオ
    • シナリオの特徴
    • 産業構造
    • 用途
    • ビジネスモデル
    • 法規制
    • 本シナリオの実現に必要な動向
  • トラストシナリオ
    • シナリオの特徴
    • 産業構造
    • 用途
    • ビジネスモデル
    • 法規制
    • 本シナリオの実現に必要な動向

第6章 信号

  • モールシナリオ
    • 多様化 (M2M・ビッグデータ)
    • インターネット企業のオープンシナリオの物理的アウトレット
    • インフラの国際化
    • 大規模買収
    • 関連コネクテッドオブジェクト (バンドル)
  • オープンシナリオ
    • ネットワークAPI
    • ビッグデータイニシアチブ
    • インサイト&総合データ販売
    • MVNO
    • HTML5
    • スタンダードIoT
    • VRM / データ制御ツール
  • 自動化シナリオ
    • セルフサービス
    • ネットワークアウトソーシング
    • シェアリングエコノミー/ ウーバライゼーション
    • ジャストインタイム戦略
  • トラストシナリオ
    • 国内ルーティング
    • 暗号化
    • 決済セキュリティツール

第7章 主な成果

  • 市場規模
  • カテゴリー別内訳

第8章 バリューチェーンへの影響

  • モールシナリオ
  • オープンシナリオ
  • 自動化シナリオ
  • トラストシナリオ

図表

調査対象企業

  • Airbnb
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • AltaVista
  • Altice
  • Amazon
  • America Movil
  • American Apparel
  • Android
  • Apple
  • AT&T
  • Axonix
  • BASE
  • Broadband Genie
  • BuyIn
  • Cablevision
  • Cabovisao
  • craigslist
  • DataSpark
  • Decathlon
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Digital Advertising Alliance
  • DoubleClick
  • eBay
  • Ebuzzing
  • Ericsson
  • Facebook
  • Flux Vision
  • Free
  • Get
  • Ghostery
  • Google
  • Hulu
  • IAB UK
  • Kabel Deutschland
  • Mozilla
  • MySpace
  • Nest
  • Netflix
  • Nokia
  • NTTドコモ
  • Numericable
  • O2
  • OECD
  • Ono
  • Orange
  • PT
  • 楽天
  • SFR
  • SilverLight
  • SingTel
  • Skype
  • ソフトバンク
  • Sprint
  • Swisscom
  • Tata
  • TDC
  • Telefonica
  • Telenet
  • Telenor
  • TeliaSonera
  • Tencent
  • Tesco
  • Tesla
  • T-Mobile
  • Traffic Zen
  • Twitter
  • Uber
  • Verizon
  • Virgin Mobile
  • VKontakte
  • Vodafone
  • Walmart
  • WhatsApp
  • Yahoo!
  • Yammer
  • YouTube
  • YuMe
目次
Product Code: M15538MR

This report develops a perspective of where the digital economy, and in particular the telecoms and Internet sectors, might be headed over the next decade, to 2025.

The starting point of the study was to identify key trends that have clearly emerged and major uncertainties, which might push the industry to develop in one direction or another.

Four contrasting yet plausible scenarios for the digital economy industry in 2025 are developed. They are projected against a two-by-two matrix. One axis is the presence of enablers providing specialised solutions, which other companies can leverage to build their own businesses upon. The other dimension is the intensity with which personal data are being used, serving to indicate the range of services which telcos and Internet players will provide.

The report concludes by presenting quantitative projections for each scenario: Mall, Open, Automated and Trust.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology & definitions

  • 2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
  • 2.2. Definitions
  • 2.3. Scenarios

3. Key trends

  • 3.1. Technologies
    • 3.1.1. Enhanced performance with 5G, LTE, fibre and more
    • 3.1.2. Low-cost sensors
    • 3.1.3. Cloud and virtualisation technologies
    • 3.1.4. More powerful security solutions
  • 3.2. Usages
    • 3.2.1. From offline, to online, and now to mobile
    • 3.2.2. Multiple device ownership and simultaneous use becoming the norm
    • 3.2.3. Free (or at least low-cost) services increasingly becoming the default mindset
  • 3.3. Business Models
    • 3.3.1. Bundling
    • 3.3.2. Segmentation
    • 3.3.3. Disintermediation
    • 3.3.4. Softwarisation
    • 3.3.5. Data monetisation
  • 3.4. Regulation
    • 3.4.1. Transition from ex-ante to ex-post regimes
    • 3.4.2. More symmetric regulation
    • 3.4.3. Geographically differentiated rules
  • 3.5. Consolidation

4. Major uncertainties

  • 4.1. Technology
    • 4.1.1. SDN
    • 4.1.2. Network optimisation
    • 4.1.3. Real network performance
    • 4.1.4. Internet of Things
    • 4.1.5. Big Data
    • 4.1.6. RFID
    • 4.1.7. NFC in mobile phones
    • 4.1.8. Open Standards
    • 4.1.9. 3D Printing
  • 4.2. Players
    • 4.2.1. Consolidation
    • 4.2.2. New players on the Internet market
  • 4.3. Investments
    • 4.3.1. Rural NGA deployment
    • 4.3.2. Access infrastructure in emerging and developing countries
    • 4.3.3. OTTs and infrastructure: rent or internalise
  • 4.4. Business models
    • 4.4.1. Monetisation of personal data
    • 4.4.2. Expansion into verticals
    • 4.4.3. Servicisation
    • 4.4.4. Two-sided business models
  • 4.5. Regulation
    • 4.5.1. Platforms
    • 4.5.2. Privacy vs. law enforcement
    • 4.5.3. Fiscal optimisation
  • 4.6. Usages
    • 4.6.1. Privacy / security concerns
    • 4.6.2. Willingness to pay for Internet services

5. Scenarios for 2025

  • 5.1. Defining dimensions to shape the industry by 2025
    • 5.1.1. Availability of enablers
    • 5.1.2. Intensity of use of personal data
  • 5.2. Scenario matrix
  • 5.3. Mall
    • 5.3.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.3.2. Industry structure
    • 5.3.3. Usages
    • 5.3.4. Business Models
    • 5.3.5. Regulation
    • 5.3.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.4. Open
    • 5.4.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.4.2. Industry structure
    • 5.4.3. Usages
    • 5.4.4. Business models
    • 5.4.5. Regulation
    • 5.4.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.5. Automated
    • 5.5.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.5.2. Industry structure
    • 5.5.3. Usages
    • 5.5.4. Business model
    • 5.5.5. Regulation
    • 5.5.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.6. Trust
    • 5.6.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.6.2. Industry structure
    • 5.6.3. Usages
    • 5.6.4. Business models
    • 5.6.5. Regulation
    • 5.6.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario

6. Signals

  • 6.1. Mall
    • 6.1.1. Diversification (M2M and Big Data)
    • 6.1.2. Internet players open physical outlets
    • 6.1.3. Infrastructure internalisation
    • 6.1.4. Large-scale acquisitions
    • 6.1.5. Associated connected objects (bundles)
  • 6.2. Open
    • 6.2.1. Network APIs
    • 6.2.2. Big data initiatives
    • 6.2.3. Insights and aggregated data sales
    • 6.2.4. MVNOs
    • 6.2.5. HTML5
    • 6.2.6. Standards IoT
    • 6.2.7. VRM / data control tools
  • 6.3. Automated
    • 6.3.1. Self-service
    • 6.3.2. Network outsourcing
    • 6.3.3. Sharing economy / Uberisation
    • 6.3.4. Just-in-time strategy
  • 6.4. Trust
    • 6.4.1. National routing
    • 6.4.2. Encryption
    • 6.4.3. Payment security tools

7. Main results

  • 7.1. Overall market sizing
  • 7.2. Breakdown per category

8. Impact along the value chain

  • 8.1. Mall
  • 8.2. Open
  • 8.3. Automated
  • 8.4. Trust

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 2025 scenario matrix
  • Figure 2: Number of LTE subscribers worldwide, 2012-2019
  • Figure 3: Adoption of cloud computing, by industry sector
  • Figure 4: Numbers of Internet users, by access, 2010-2019
  • Figure 5: Comparison of ownership levels for laptop and desktop computers, tablets and smartphones in selected countries, in October 2014
  • Figure 6: User willingness to change to a paid ad-free model on favourite site
  • Figure 7: Verizon and AT&T shared data plans
  • Figure 8: Time Warner Cable Signature Home
  • Figure 9: Disintermediation of the value chain
  • Figure 10: Consolidation drivers/hurdles matrix
  • Figure 11: Capex and opex reduction from implementation of NEC SDN solution (programmableFlow)
  • Figure 12: Standards initiatives relevant to the Smart Home
  • Figure 13: 3D printing main barriers
  • Figure 14: High-tech acquisitions by Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon
  • Figure 15: Top Internet companies by market cap as of May 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
  • Figure 16: FTTH cost per home passed by type of area (EUR/hh)
  • Figure 17: Rural fixed broadband coverage
  • Figure 18: Facebook Internet drone concept
  • Figure 19: Amazon AWS cloud infrastructure locations
  • Figure 20: Growth of ad-blocking software users worldwide
  • Figure 21: Google attempts at territorial expansion
  • Figure 22: The automotive value chain and business activities for stakeholders
  • Figure 23: Spotify premium and free users
  • Figure 24: Members of Reform Government Surveillance coalition, in April 2015
  • Figure 25: Number of VoD providers in selected European countries
  • Figure 26: World's largest security breaches, as of October 2015
  • Figure 27: Frequently used online services: comparison of their use and trust levels (2015 survey)
  • Figure 28: Potential ways in which user can add more security and data over their data
  • Figure 29: The Ghostery browser extension giving browsers more control
  • Figure 30: User perception on whether they should be given the option to pay for services or receive them free in exchange for personal data and, should such an option exist, which they would take
  • Figure 31: Scenario matrix
  • Figure 32: Telcos upgrading their shops to 'Apple-like' look and feel
  • Figure 33: From traditional silos in M2M to a consolidated data usage
  • Figure 34: Amazon book store
  • Figure 35: Acquisition strategies, by Internet giants
  • Figure 36: A Samsung Galaxy smartphone offer bundled with Galaxy Gear smart watch
  • Figure 37: Communication APIs available from operators
  • Figure 38: i-concier service by NTT DOCOMO
  • Figure 39: Steps of the ladder of non-MNO-branded mobile offers
  • Figure 40: The Datacoup dashboard
  • Figure 41: Virgin Media: seven steps to select the most adequate package
  • Figure 42: Top Internet companies by market cap as of December 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
  • Figure 43: The 'e-mail made in Germany' consortium
  • Figure 44: Satisfaction and usage of Mobile BankID
  • Figure 45: WhatsApp Q&A stating that the messages are encrypted
  • Figure 46: The anatomy of an Apple Pay transaction
  • Figure 47: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 48: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 49: US market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 50: EU5 market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 51: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
  • Figure 52: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
  • Figure 53: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
  • Figure 54: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
  • Figure 55: Mobile data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 56: Paid VoD world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 57: Paid digital contents (music and eBooks) world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 58: Consumer fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 59: IoT services world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 60: Big data, RTB and social ads world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 61: Cloud world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 62: Corporate fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios,
  • Figure 63: E-commerce world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 64: Online security world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios

List of players reviewed / mentioned

  • Airbnb
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • AltaVista
  • Altice
  • Amazon
  • America Movil
  • American Apparel
  • Android
  • Apple
  • AT&T
  • Axonix
  • BASE
  • Broadband Genie
  • BuyIn
  • Cablevision
  • Cabovisao
  • craigslist
  • DataSpark
  • Decathlon
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Digital Advertising Alliance
  • DoubleClick
  • eBay
  • Ebuzzing
  • Ericsson
  • Facebook
  • Flux Vision
  • Free
  • Get
  • Ghostery
  • Google
  • Hulu
  • IAB UK
  • Kabel Deutschland
  • Mozilla
  • MySpace
  • Nest
  • Netflix
  • Nokia
  • NTT DOCOMO
  • Numericable
  • O2
  • OECD
  • Ono
  • Orange
  • PT
  • Rakuten
  • SFR
  • SilverLight
  • SingTel
  • Skype
  • SoftBank
  • Sprint
  • Swisscom
  • Tata
  • TDC
  • Telefónica
  • Telenet
  • Telenor
  • TeliaSonera
  • Tencent
  • Tesco
  • Tesla
  • T-Mobile
  • Traffic Zen
  • Twitter
  • Uber
  • Verizon
  • Virgin Mobile
  • VKontakte
  • Vodafone
  • Walmart
  • WhatsApp
  • Yahoo!
  • Yammer
  • YouTube
  • YuMe

Slideshow contents

  • The key trends with reasonably predictable outcomes which affect the digital economy sphere
  • Major uncertainties affecting the digital economy up to 2025
  • Building four contrasting scenarios for the next decade
  • Scenario matrix
  • The four scenarios at a glance
  • Illustration of scenarios, using today's examples
  • Main quantitative results: growing revenues, shifting weights
  • The telecom sector: different revenues in the four scenarios
  • The Internet sector: continued healthy growth
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