市場調査レポート

超高速ブロードバンド(フェーズ2):次世代アクセスの新しい市場機会・技術・戦略

Superfast broadband phase two: New NGA opportunities, technologies and strategies

発行 Ovum, Ltd. 商品コード 214843
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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超高速ブロードバンド(フェーズ2):次世代アクセスの新しい市場機会・技術・戦略 Superfast broadband phase two: New NGA opportunities, technologies and strategies
出版日: 2011年10月27日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、次世代アクセス技術の展開状況について調査分析し、VDSLベクタリング、ペアボンディングなど、銅線継続利用のための各種技術の開発動向、主要オペレーターの次世代アクセス技術の展開動向、FTTxの新たなアプリケーションに関する考察、FTTxの各種ビジネスモデルの検証などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

調査対象オペレーター

  • Belgacom(ベルギー)
  • Telenet(ベルギー)
  • O2(チェコ共和国)
  • KPN(オランダ)
  • Chunghwa Telecom(台湾)
  • PCCW(香港)
  • Telekom Malaysia(マレーシア)
  • Kabel Deutschland(ドイツ)
  • Swisscom(スイス)
  • CIF(オランダ)
  • AT&T(米国)
  • PTCL(パキスタン)
  • Virgin Media(英国)
  • SK Broadband(韓国)
  • UPC Cablecom(スイス)
  • Get(ノルウェー)
  • YouSee(デンマーク)
  • BT(英国)
  • Telekom Austria(オーストリア)
  • Slovak Telekom(スロバキア)
  • Telecom Italia(イタリア)
  • Turk Telecom(トルコ)
  • P&T Luxembourg(ルクセンブルグ)
  • France Telecom(フランス)
  • Tele 2(オランダ)
  • NextGenTel(ノルウェー)
  • Bredbandsbolaget(スウェーデン)
  • Online(オランダ)
  • TDC(デンマーク)
  • Telenor(ノルウェー)

調査対象ベンダー

  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • ZTE
  • Huawei
  • Comtrend
  • Zyxel
  • Arris
  • Cisco
  • Ikanos
  • Broadcom
  • Lantiq
  • Amdocs
  • Comptel
  • Ericsson
  • HP
  • Oracle
  • Sigma Systems
  • Telcordia Technologies
目次

Abstract

Summary:

The success of next-generation access networks is crucial for both operators and vendors. Operators face an increasing number of choices as technologies using existing copper networks are becoming more developed, fiber-to-the-x (FTTx) deployments continue to grow and cable players face decisions about whether they need to upgrade their DOCSIS 3.0 networks further. Our research provides analysis of the latest developments in the technology field, including the use of FTTx for mobile backhaul and industry verticals such as energy and healthcare.

Overview

The world of next-generation access is changing as operators learn that getting consumers to pay more for superfast broadband is not so easy. But offering higher speeds still retains its importance as a way of locking in customers while launching new networks and technologies can be a way to compete successfully in a market. The more cost-effectively vendors can launch new technologies, the better it will be for operators. The sheer cost of rolling out FTTx networks is also having an effect in terms of the business models being adopted. Network sharing has potential for reducing rollout costs and sources of funding are available, but different kinds of investors, such as private equity groups, may seek to spend their money on more certain business cases than next-generation access.

To justify the cost of FTTx rollout operators and vendors continue to search for the Holy Grail of new applications for their networks. FTTx for mobile backhaul and applications for industry verticals are examined and the relationship between IPTV and fiber is also analyzed.

This report contains case studies looking at several operators' next-generation access rollouts, particularly those operators using technologies to prolong the life of copper, and what the key factors have been in their success. There is also in-depth analysis of vendor movements in terms of new technologies such as vectoring and pair bonding. The report includes case studies on the different business models that operators have used to deploy their next-generation access networks.

How this research will help you

  • Understand developments in technologies to prolong the life of copper such as VDSL vectoring, pair bonding and VDSL from the central office.
  • Discover how different operators are deploying next-generation access technologies now and how they will do so in the next few years.
  • Learn how IPTV and FTTx interact and whether these technologies need each other to be successful.
  • Gain insights into new applications for FTTx in terms of mobile backhaul and industry verticals such as healthcare and energy.
  • Assess different business models involved in FTTx deployments such as network sharing and differing attitudes towards regulation.

Operators featured

  • Belgacom- Belgium
  • Telenet- Belgium
  • O2- Czech Republic
  • KPN- Netherlands
  • Chunghwa Telecom- Taiwan
  • PCCW- Hong Kong
  • Telekom Malaysia- Malaysia
  • Kabel Deutschland- Germany
  • Swisscom- Switzerland
  • CIF- Netherlands
  • AT&T- US
  • PTCL- Pakistan
  • Virgin Media- UK
  • SK Broadband- South Korea
  • UPC Cablecom- Switzerland
  • Get- Norway
  • YouSee-Denmark
  • BT- UK
  • Telekom Austria- Austria
  • Slovak Telekom- Slovakia
  • Telecom Italia- Italy
  • Turk Telecom- Turkey
  • P&T Luxembourg- Luxembourg
  • France Telecom- France
  • Tele 2- Netherlands
  • NextGenTel- Norway
  • Bredbandsbolaget- Sweden
  • Online- Netherlands
  • TDC- Denmark
  • Telenor- Norway

Vendors featured

  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • ZTE
  • Huawei
  • Comtrend
  • Zyxel
  • Arris
  • Cisco
  • Ikanos
  • Broadcom
  • Lantiq
  • Amdocs
  • Comptel
  • Ericsson
  • HP
  • Oracle
  • Sigma Systems
  • Telcordia Technologies

Countries covered

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Czech Republic
  • Netherlands
  • Taiwan
  • Hong Kong
  • Malaysia
  • Germany
  • Switzerland
  • US
  • Pakistan
  • UK
  • South Korea
  • Denmark
  • Norway
  • Slovakia
  • Italy
  • China
  • Turkey
  • Luxembourg
  • Japan
  • France
  • Sweden
  • Singapore
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • Vietnam
  • Slovenia
  • Spain

Table of Contents

Superfast Broadband Phase Two: New NGA opportunities, technologies and strategies Executive Summary - PowerPoint file (25 slides)

xDSL evolution

VDSL-vectoring strategies: The copper technology that's making FTTH look passe

  • Fig. 1: Ikanos vectoring test results
  • Fig. 2: Comparison of system-level and line-card-level vectoring
  • Fig. 3: Vectoring selected trials
  • Fig. 4: Vectoring scorecard by region

VDSL-bonding strategies: A secret weapon to save time and money in the battle with cable

  • Fig. 1: VDSL2-bonding bit rates in KPN trial
  • Fig. 2: No. of copper pairs per household, selected countries, Aug-11
  • Fig. 3: VDSL-pair-bonding score card, by region, Aug-11

VDSL-from-the-central-office: the cheapest and easiest NGA option for both incumbents and unbundlers

  • Fig. 1: Selected VDSL-from-the-central-office deployments
  • Fig. 2: Copper-local-loop lengths by selected country
  • Fig. 3: Maximum download speeds offered over VDSL-FTCO by selected operators
  • Fig. 4: VDSL-FTCO scorecard by region

Case study: O2 Czech Republic's VDSL-FTCO strategy is pragmatic but no miracle cure

  • Fig. 1: UPC, broadband subscribers as % of cable TV subscribers, by country, 2Q11
  • Fig. 2: O2 and UPC fixed-broadband net additions, 2Q10-2Q11
  • Fig. 3: O2 Czech Republic, IPTV net additions, 1Q10-2Q11
  • Fig. 4: O2 Czech Republic, year-on-year fixed-line revenue changes

Case study: Belgacom makes the best of a bad hand with copper-centric NGA strategy

  • Fig. 1: Belgacom, VDSL population coverage, 2004-2010
  • Fig. 2: Telenet, fixed-broadband customers by download speed, end-2010
  • Fig. 3: Belgacom, IPTV households, 3Q05-1Q11
  • Fig. 4: Belgium and Netherlands, LLU penetration of DSL subscribers, 1Q09-1Q11

Beyond DOCSIS 3.0 cable

Beyond DOCSIS 3.0: Moving forward too fast?

  • Fig. 1: Selected recent trials of ultrafast broadband over cable infrastructure
  • Fig. 2: Technologies available for expanding cable-network capacity
  • Fig. 3: Timeline for rollout of DOCSIS 3.0-extension technologies
  • First look: Telenet's Digital Wave 2015 project - the cable network of the future
  • Fig. 1: Belgium, fixed-broadband net additions for Telenet and Belgacom, 3Q09-1Q11
  • Fig. 2: Homes passed per node, by selected cable operators, Jun-11
  • Fig. 3: Telenet: percentage of cable TV subscribers that are digital, 1Q09-1Q11
  • Fig. 4: Digital cable TV as a percentage of total cable TV subscribers, by selected operators, 1Q11
  • Fig. 5: Spectrum used, by selected cable operators

Tony Brown wonders whether Asia Pacific MSOs will embrace superfast cable services

FTTH/B strategies

Swisscom's FTTH network-sharing strategy: Waiting for ComCo

  • Fig. 1: Swisscom's FTTH network-sharing strategy, Jun-11
  • Fig. 2: Timeline of Swisscom's FTTH/B network-sharing agreements, Jun-11
  • Fig. 3: Swisscom, selected FTTH/B rollouts and service launches, Jun-11
  • Fig. 4: Swisscom's FTTH/B rollouts, Jan-11
  • Fig. 5: Swisscom's FTTH/B rollouts, Jun-11
  • Fig. 6: Switzerland, selected next-generation access packages by operator, Jun-11
  • Fig. 7: Swisscom's FTTH/B bundles: subscriber breakdown, end-2010
  • Fig. 8: Swisscom's FTTH/B network-sharing strategy SWOT analysis

Time is running out for key Asian markets to solve FTTH/B-access problems, says Tony Brown

FTTH/B provisioning strategies: An oft-overlooked aspect vital to NGA-network evolution

  • Fig. 1: Leading provisioning-system vendors and reported deployments for FTTH/B
  • Fig. 2: Factors behind strategic review of provisioning systems linked to FTTH/B deployments
  • Fig. 3: Selected FTTH/B business models and corresponding OSS/provisioning-transformation strategies

Japan, South Korea and the misrepresentation of fiber-broadband usage

  • Fig. 1: Japan and South Korea broadband snapshot, 1Q11
  • Fig. 2: Global, average Internet traffic per user per month, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 3: Japan and South Korea, traffic split by application type, 2010
  • Fig. 4: Global, top 10 markets by operator VoIP subscriptions, 1Q11
  • Fig. 5: Selected markets, peer-to-peer users as a proportion of broadband users, 2010
  • Fig. 6: Japan and South Korea, video traffic per video user per month, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 7: Selected markets, online-video-to-TV scorecard
  • Fig. 8: Selected markets, average minutes/day spent working and watching TV, 2010
  • Fig. 9: Selected Web services, bandwidth requirements and barriers to launching services

Multiple technologies to power next-generation home networks

  • Fig. 1: US, household devices and Internet traffic
  • Fig. 2: G.hn, confirmed silicon-manufacturer supporters
  • Fig. 3: G.hn wire compatibility
  • Fig. 4: Selected home-networking technology throughput
  • Fig. 5: IEEE 1905 networking
  • Fig. 6: Wi-Fi innovation cycle
  • Fig. 7: Wi-Fi MU-MIMO traffic management
  • Fig. 8: Wi-Fi AC channel bonding

Asia Pacific operators finding high-speed broadband a tough sell

  • Fig. 1: Hong Kong Broadband Network, subscribers by access speed, Jun-11
  • Fig. 2: LGU+, 100Mbps subscriber breakdown
  • Fig. 3: C&M Communications, subscriber breakdown by speed, Jun-11
  • Fig. 4: SK Broadband, subscriber breakdown
  • Fig. 5: Telekom Malaysia, Unifi subscriber breakdown, Jun-11
  • Fig. 6: CHT, broadband subscriber data
  • Fig. 7: CHT, broadband-network evolution
  • Fig. 8: Taiwan Broadband Communications, subscriber data, Jun-11
  • Fig. 9: NTT East, FTTH service charges
  • Fig. 10: J-Com, 160Mbps service take-up, 1H08-1H11
  • Fig. 11: KDDI, broadband subscribers by technology

Business Models

Structuring a profitable NGA model is the problem, not financing

  • Fig. 1: FTTH/B subscriptions, global, 1Q09-1Q11
  • Fig. 2: Pros and cons of selected financing sources

Open-access networks in Europe: Will other markets follow Norway in calling closing time?

  • Fig. 1: Europe, open-access business models, Sep-11
  • Fig. 2: Europe, pros and cons of using open-access-network strategies, Sep-11
  • Fig. 3: Europe, PTS' model of network value chain, Sep-11
  • Fig. 4: Europe, open-access business models in selected markets, Sep-11
  • Fig. 5: Europe, open-access networks, sources of funding for selected networks, Sep-2011
  • Fig. 6: Europe, open-access networks, selected wholesale prices by operator, Sep-11
  • Fig. 7: Europe, selected open-access networks and service providers, Sep-11
  • Fig. 8: Europe, open-access networks, KPN's subs and net adds, 2Q09-2Q11
  • Fig. 9: Europe, open-access-network scorecard for selected markets, Sep-11

Delivering IPTV: Stick with DSL or take the fiber plunge?

  • Fig. 1: Hong Kong pay TV market share by operator, 2004-2010
  • Fig. 2: Advantages and disadvanatges in delivering IPTV over FTTH or DSL
  • Fig. 3: HKBN broadband plans
  • Fig. 4: Singapore, pay TV subscribers by operator, 2007-2H11
  • Fig. 5: NGNBN fact sheet, Jun-10
  • Fig. 6: Telekom Malaysia broadband packages

Back to the drawing board or business as usual? An analysis of new models for NGA network collaboration - PowerPoint file (28 slides)

Data and forecasts

Broadband subscription forecasts (incl. PON & PtP splits), 2011-2016 - Excel file

Global, next generation access tariffs, 4Q10- 3Q11 - Excel file

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