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ロシアの石炭:市場・価格動向・輸送体制・将来予測

Coal in Russia: Market, Pricing, Transportation and Forecast

発行 INFOMINE Research Group 商品コード 780391
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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ロシアの石炭:市場・価格動向・輸送体制・将来予測 Coal in Russia: Market, Pricing, Transportation and Forecast
出版日: 2019年01月24日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、ロシア国内の石炭産業の構造や動向について分析し、石炭の生産量・消費量・輸出量・輸入量の推移や、国内価格・貿易価格の実績値・予測値、石炭輸送量の推移や輸送港湾 (拠点)・輸送手段別シェア構造などについて調査しております。

第1章 分析結果と結論

第2章 ロシア国内の石炭の需給バランス

  • ロシアの石炭産業の動向
  • ロシア国内の石炭消費量
  • ロシアの石炭輸出量
  • ロシアの石炭輸入量

第3章 石炭価格

  • ロシアの石炭の国内価格
  • ロシアの石炭輸出価格
  • 石炭価格の予測 (ロシア国内/世界全体)

第4章 石炭の輸送体制

  • ロシアの港湾石炭ターミナルの概要
  • ロシアの石炭の鉄道輸送量:最新型貨車の市場シェアと今後の動向見通し
  • 石炭輸送量:主要港湾のシェア、輸出用石炭の輸送量、輸送量・シェアの決定要因
目次

This marketing research is the first edition of a review of the Russian and global coal market and its price situation.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of the coal market in Russia and assess the prospects for its development for the period up to 2030.

The object of the study is coal, the review covers the main types of coal - stone (energy and coking) and brown.

The chronological framework of the study covers the period from 2000 to 2018, the market development forecast is given until 2030.

Geography research : Russia - a comprehensive analysis of the market, the global coal market - a brief description.

This study is "desk " - in the process of work, information from various sources was collected, analyzed and summarized.

The main sources of information were the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation (FCS of the Russian Federation), the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the Central Dispatch Center of the Fuel and Energy Sector of the Russian Federation, statistics of rail traffic, as well as data of world information and analytical agencies.

In addition, when working on the report, materials of the sectoral and regional press were used; annual and quarterly reports of issuers of securities; data from the websites of coal producers and consumers, as well as stevedoring companies specializing in coal transshipment in the seaports of Russia.

A distinctive feature of this review compared with other marketing research currently on the Russian market is that this paper examines the Russian coal market from the point of view of Russia's place on the global coal market.

Along with the main indicators of the development of the Russian coal market, the report presents data on the dynamics of world coal production and consumption; Russia's role as a major global producer and exporter of coal has been determined; The forecast of development of the Russian and world coal market is given.

In addition, in this work, great attention is paid to the state and prospects of development of the port infrastructure of Russia, as a necessary condition for further increasing the export potential of the Russian Federation on the world coal market.

This review consists of 4 parts, contains 89 pages, including 25 tables and 42 figures.

The first chapter provides conclusions on the results of the study.

The second chapter is devoted to the study of the balance of supply and demand for coal in Russia. This section provides detailed data on the main indicators of the Russian coal market - the volume of production, consumption, export and import of these products, identifies the main factors affecting the development of the Russian coal market.

The dynamics of coal mining in the Russian Federation are given in a regional context, as well as in a section of the largest producers of products.

The dynamics of coal consumption in the Russian market with an indication of the largest regions of use are estimated.

The dynamics of exports and imports of coal are given with an indication of the main directions of supply, the definition of the largest exporters and recipients of these products.

The share of marine coal terminals in the supply of coal to foreign markets is estimated.

This section also considers the dynamics of world production and consumption of coal; Russia's share as a major global producer and exporter of coal has been determined.

This section contains a forecast of the development of both the Russian and global coal markets until 2030.

The third chapter analyzes data on the dynamics of prices for energy and coking coals on the domestic market of the Russian Federation; also shows the export prices of Russian producers.

In addition, this section provides data on the dynamics of prices for various types of coal in the world market; considered the relationship between the dynamics of Russian and world prices for coal, and also gave a forecast of changes in Russian and world prices for these products in the future until 2025

The fourth chapter is devoted to the transportation of coal in export directions.

This chapter provides information on the largest stevedoring companies engaged in coal transshipment in the Russian Federation and the rates of coal transshipment in the main ports. In addition, data are presented on the main coal terminals of Russia, with an indication of their characteristics, as well as the dynamics of coal transshipment volumes in 2014-2018.

The section describes the main projects to increase the capacity of marine coal terminals of the Russian Federation.

Also in this chapter, the share of innovative cars in the transportation of coal is estimated and a forecast of the development of this segment of rail transportation is given.

Target audience of the study:

  • coal market participants - producers, consumers, traders;
  • potential investors.

The proposed study claims the role of reference for marketing services and professionals working in the coal market in Russia.

Table of Contents

1. Conclusions on the results of the study

2. Balance of supply and demand for coal in the Russian Federation in 2014-2017, 1st half of 2018

  • 2.1. Coal mining in the Russian Federation in 2014-2017, the 1st half of 2018
  • 2.2. Coal consumption in the Russian Federation in 2014-2017, the 1st half of 2018
  • 2.3. Coal exports from the Russian Federation in 2014-2017, 1 half of 2018
  • 2.4. Coal imports in the Russian Federation in 2014-2017, 1 half of 2018

3. Coal prices

  • 3.1. Coal prices in the domestic market of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017, 1 half of 2018
  • 3.2. Export prices for Russian coal in 2014-2017, 1 half of 2018
  • 3.3. Coal price forecast (Russian and world) until 2025

4. Transportation of coal

  • 4.1. Overview of Russian Marine Coal Terminals
  • 4.2. Assessment of the current share of innovative cars in the transportation of coal by rail and a forecast of freight turnover up to 2025
  • 4.3. The transshipment rates in the main ports, transshipping coal for export, the rationale for the formation of the value of the rate

List of tables

  • Table 1. The volume of coal production by the world's leading manufacturers in 2012-2017, million tons
  • Table 2. The volume of coal mining by underground and open pit (million tons) and the number of operating coal mining enterprises (units) in Russia in 2007-2018
  • Table 3. The volume of coal production in Russia by type in 2007-2018, mln t
  • Table 4. Volumes of coal mining by the largest Russian companies in 2012-2018, mln t
  • Table 5. The largest energy coal mining companies in Russia in 2012-2018, million tons
  • Table 6. The largest enterprises producing anthracite in Russia in 2012-2018, million tons
  • Table 7. Production of coking coal by the main producers in Russia in 2010-2018, million tons
  • Table 8. Main indicators of the development of the coal industry in Russia in the period up to 2030, million tons
  • Table 9. The volume of coal consumption in Russia in 2012-2018, mln t
  • Table 10. The largest Russian exporters of coal in 2014-2018, mln t
  • Table 11. The largest Russian exporters of coking coal in 2014-2018, million tons
  • Table 12. The volume of exports of Russian coal by major brands in 2014-2018, mln t
  • Table 13. Export of coal through Russian ports in 2014-2018, million tons
  • Table 14. The volume of export supplies of Russian stone coal in the directions in 2012-2018, million tons
  • Table 15. Exports of Russian hard coal by main regions of departure in 2014-2018, million tons
  • Table 16. The volume of coal imports to the Russian Federation by type and region of departure in 2013-2018, mln t
  • Table 17. Volumes of coal import in Russia by areas and types of coal in 2013-2018, mln t
  • Table 18. The volume of imported coal in the main regions of destination in 2014-2018, million tons
  • Table 19. The largest importers of coal in Russia in 2012-2018, kt
  • Table 20. Forecast of prices for hard coking coal on delivery terms FOB Australia, $ / t
  • Table 21. Price forecast for low-caking coking coal on FOB Australia delivery terms, $ / t
  • Table 22. The list of operating ports of the Russian Federation in which coal transshipment is carried out
  • Table 23. Characteristics of the main coal terminals in the seaports of Russia
  • Table 24. Major projects for the construction of new and expansion of existing sea terminals for coal transshipment
  • Table 25. Coal transfer rates in Russian seaports

List of figures

  • Figure 1. Dynamics of coal production in the world in 2001-2017, billion tons
  • Figure 2. The structure of world coal production in 2017,%
  • Figure 3. Dynamics of production capacity of coal-mining enterprises of the Russian Federation in 2012-2017, mln t
  • Figure 4. Dynamics of coal production in Russia by underground and open pit in 2007-2017, mln t
  • Figure 5. Dynamics of coal production in Russia by coal basins in 2013-2018, million tons
  • Figure 6. Structure of coal production in Russia by economic regions in 2017,%
  • Figure 7. Dynamics of coal production in Russia in 2000-2018, mln t
  • Figure 8. Dynamics of investment in the coal industry of Russia in 2011-2017, billion rubles
  • Figure 9. The largest Russian producers of coking coal in 2017, million tons
  • Figure 10. Dynamics of coal consumption in Russia in 2012-2017, mln t
  • Figure 11. Regional structure of coal consumption in Russia,%
  • Figure 12. Structure of coal consumption in the domestic market of Russia in 2017,%
  • Figure 13. Forecast of the share of different types of fuel in the global energy balance for the period up to 2035
  • Figure 14. The forecast of coal consumption in different regions of the world until 2040, million tons of fuel equivalent
  • Figure 15. The demand for primary energy by type of fuel in different regions of the world until 2040, mln t AD
  • Figure 16. Changes in primary energy consumption by type of fuel in different regions by 2040, million tons of standard fuel.
  • Figure 17. Dynamics of supply of Russian coal to the domestic market and for export in 2000-2017, mln t
  • Figure 18. Dynamics of Russian coal exports by type in 2000-2018, mln t
  • Figure 19. Dynamics of Russian export of hard coal in physical and monetary terms in 2007-2017, million tons, billion $
  • Figure 20. Dynamics of Russian export of brown coal in physical and monetary terms in 2012-2017, million tons, million $
  • Figure 21. Dynamics of Russian coal export in the main areas in 2014-2018, mln t
  • Figure 22. Structure of export of Russian coal through ports and land border crossings in 2012-2017,%
  • Figure 23. Structure of coal exports through the seaports of Russia in 2012-2017,%
  • Figure 24. Structure of coal transshipment by seaports of Russia in 2017,%
  • Figure 25. Regional structure of exports of Russian hard coal in 2012-2017,%
  • Figure 26. Dynamics and structure of export supplies of brown coal in 2012-2017, mln t
  • Figure 27. Dynamics of imports of coal of the Russian Federation in physical and monetary terms in 2013-2017, million tons, million $
  • Figure 28. Dynamics of prices for C, T grade coal and anthracite on the domestic market of Russia in 2014-2018, rubles / ton, including VAT
  • Figure 29. Dynamics of prices for grade B and grade D coal on the domestic market of Russia in 2014-2018, rub / ton, including VAT
  • Figure 30. Dynamics of prices for coal concentrate grades KO and K in the domestic market of Russia in 2012-2018, rub / t
  • Figure 31. Dynamics of prices for coking coal concentrate in the domestic market of Russia in 2014-2018, rub / ton, excluding VAT
  • Figure 32. Dynamics of energy coal quotes (based on 6000 kcal / kg) in key ports of the world in 2013-2018, $ / t, excluding VAT
  • Figure 33. Dynamics of export prices for semi-soft coking coal of Russia and Australia in 2014-2018, $ / t excluding VAT
  • Figure 34. Dynamics of export prices for coking coals of the largest Russian producers in 2017-2018, $ / t
  • Figure 35. Coal price forecast for metallurgy until 2022 from Ernst and Young
  • Figure 36. Dynamics of freight turnover of Russian seaports and coal transshipment in seaports in 2012-2018, million tons
  • Figure 37. Structure of transshipment of dry cargo in seaports of the Russian Federation in 2017,%
  • Figure 38. Structure of coal transshipment in Russia by end beneficiaries of terminals in 2017,%
  • Figure 39. Development of coal terminals in Russia
  • Figure 40. Structure of loading on the network of JSC "Russian Railways" by type of cargo in 2017,%
  • Figure 41. Freight car fleet (million units) and innovative car fleet (thousand units) in the Russian Federation in 2013-2017,
  • Figure 42. Forecast of the carriage of goods and rail freight (conservative scenario)
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