India Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 76 Pages
世界の通信部門は、国家経済にとって中核的かつ不可欠なインフラサービスであることが証明されています。コネクテッド世界では、データインフラが重要になり、大規模インフラ基金のような新しいクラスの投資家をますます引き付けると見られています。インドの通信業界は、政治的不確実性とCOVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) パンデミックによる不確実な経済見通しの中で、業界の防御的性質のおかげで堅調に推移すると予想されています。携帯電話の普及拡大と家庭における固定ブロードバンドの普及によって、今後5年間で将来の成長が促進されると予測されています。
当レポートでは、インドの通信業界について調査分析し、収益分析と市場予測のほか、主要統計 (市場規模、5ヶ年予測、市場考察、主要な通信動向、5Gなど) も含めて、体系的な情報を提供しています。
This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Taiwan telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:
‘The India Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Indian market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.
Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Indian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Growing mobile phone penetration and emerging fixed broadband take-up among households will fuel future growth over the next five years.
According to our ‘India Telecoms Report’, Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions and fixed broadband subscribers will continue to fuel the telecoms sector growth in the 2019-25 period. More than 600m people became Internet users over the last in six years and another 600m more Internet users are expected to come online over the next six years by 2025.
Following the market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.
Mobile subscriptions ares growing faster than mobile service revenue leading to ARPU decline after 3 years of intense competition with the market transitioning to 4G. With a market entry in late 2016, Jio jolted the mobile market from a standing start to becoming the largest mobile operator by the subscriber and third-largest by revenue in just three years.
Reliance Jio launch strategy was to offer three months of free data and free voice, and once that was up, kept the free voice offering permanent while charging only a low price for mobile data (INR50 for 1GB). This strategy is reminiscent to the classic Silicon Valley bet: spend money upfront to acquire customers, then make it up on volume because of a superior cost structure enabled by its 4G only network and the near-zero-marginal cost nature of technology. Jio's launch timing was perfect just at the time when competitors had sputtering 4G networks, it offered free Internet to a nation and demographics that could not afford it and increased its addressable market while its competitors were still relying on legacy voice and SMS revenue. Mobile network competitors quickly struggled to compete and a massive wave of consolidation ensued.
Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow again through to 2025 after a marked decline from 2017 and 2018 due to a mobile war.
The Capex from Indian operators is highly cyclical with mobile rollout leading to investments in line with the operators' top-line growth. Capex investments peaked between 2016 and 2018 while Jio built its 4G mobile network and is declining to lower level in 2019 and will increase again from 2020 through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand. The Capex to GDP ratio spiked between 2015 and 2017 and its started to slide from 2018 onwards.
Most operators lost revenue and EBITDA share to Jio in 2017 and 2018 and Bharti Airtel started to recover in 2019 with price rises across the market. Vodafone Idea lost both revenue and EBITDA share while merging and cost reduction measures started to flow in 2019 with improving EBITDA and cash flow.
The wave of market consolidation followed by Jio's market entry and the intense pricing competition should subside with a market of three large operators with high debt loads, all now focusing on a strategy of profitable growth in the mobile market.
The mobile telecoms sector began consolidating two years ago, with twelve operators in 2017, India has now only four mobile network operators with nationwide across all 22 circles; Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio and BSNL/MTNL.
Average annual mobile revenue growth was lower (3.2%) than mobile service subscriptions growth (4.6%) during the period 2014-2019 highlighting the intense price war since Jio's market putting pressure on ARPU compounded by a reduction of dual-SIM cards feature, driving the low growth in mobile subscriptions. The 4G migration leapfrogged by Jio and followed by Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel is driving the growth in higher ARPU for operators with the mobile market consolidation now largely complete.
According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive.
The fixed broadband market is experiencing slow-growth mostly driven by the loss of share by the incumbent BSNL, followed by Bharti Airtel, Atria Convergence Technologies (ATC), Reliance Jio (including Den Networks and Hathway Cable), Vodafone Idea via its subsidiary You Broadband, all are now investing in full-fibre networks.
However, more competition is expected in the fixed broadband market with Jio's entry with its residential fibre broadband services likely to disrupt incumbent BSNL but also should increase the residential broadband subscriptions significantly.
Fixed broadband penetration is forecasted to grow modestly as India's investments on full-fibre networks are slowly taking off with affordable packages and increased broadband household penetration growing.
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.
Our ‘India Telecoms Report’ transactions database analysis highlights the hive of transactions in the India tower market, with the majority of telecommunications operators shifting assets to infrastructure entities and selling down to repay debts and further investments for capacity and coverage of their mobile networks. However, in the short to medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the fixed broadband market, now expected to come under pressure with JioFiber's launch and also broaden the scope of services beyond carriage to content and e-Commerce. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the huge debt pile and the looming required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators. A new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years will continue to consolidate around the large mobile operators, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
American Tower Corporation (ATC), Atria Convergence Technologies (ACT), Bharti Airtel, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), Den Networks, GTL Infrastructure, Hathway Cable, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL), Reliance Communications (RCom), Reliance Jio, Sify, Tata Communications, Vodafone Idea.