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インドの通信業界レポート:2020年~2025年

India Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

出版日: | 発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research | ページ情報: 英文 76 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

価格
価格表記: USDを日本円(税抜)に換算
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=105.58円
インドの通信業界レポート:2020年~2025年
出版日: 2020年05月06日
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 76 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

世界の通信部門は、国家経済にとって中核的かつ不可欠なインフラサービスであることが証明されています。コネクテッド世界では、データインフラが重要になり、大規模インフラ基金のような新しいクラスの投資家をますます引き付けると見られています。インドの通信業界は、政治的不確実性とCOVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) パンデミックによる不確実な経済見通しの中で、業界の防御的性質のおかげで堅調に推移すると予想されています。携帯電話の普及拡大と家庭における固定ブロードバンドの普及によって、今後5年間で将来の成長が促進されると予測されています。

モバイル加入数と固定ブロードバンド加入者数は、2019年~2025年の通信部門の成長を引き続き促進すると予想されています。過去6年間で6億人以上がインターネットユーザーになり、さらに6億人以上が、2025年までにインターネットユーザーになると予想されています。

当レポートでは、インドの通信業界について調査分析し、収益分析と市場予測のほか、主要統計 (市場規模、5ヶ年予測、市場考察、主要な通信動向、5Gなど) も含めて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

目次

第1章 主要な統計

  • インドの人口
  • インド世帯数
  • インドのGDP

第2章 COVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) の影響

第3章 通信市場全体

  • 市場概要
  • 通信市場の収益実績
  • 通信市場全体の予測
  • 通信市場のCapex

第4章 通信事業者のプロファイル

  • Bharti Airtel
  • Vodafone Idea
  • Reliance Jio
  • BSNL
  • その他の企業

第5章 モバイル市場

  • モバイル加入者数の実績と予測
  • モバイル収益の実績と予測
  • 周波数帯域の保有状況
  • モバイルダウンロードデータと価格動向
  • モバイル速度試験
  • モノのインターネット (IoT)

第6章 ブロードバンド市場

  • 固定ブロードバンド加入者数の実績
  • 固定ブロードバンド加入者数の予測

第7章 通信インフラ投資

  • 固定インフラ
  • モバイルタワーインフラの情勢
  • 通信インフラの比較

第8章 テーマ/機会

  • 規模
  • 範囲
  • 新しい通信事業モデル
  • 5G vs. 固定

第9章 TelcoのM&Aトランザクションデータベース

第10章 調査手法

第11章 著作権

図表

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in India
  • Figure 2 - Gross Revenue Profile Historical Mix(INR m), Boom and Bust, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market Revenue Pool, 2019
  • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA Pool, 2019
  • Figure 5 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019
  • Figure 6 - Total Telecoms Market Gross Revenue and Growth Rate (INR bn), 2019-2025
  • Figure 7 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 8 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 9 - Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
  • Figure 10 - Bharti Airtel Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 11 - Bharti Airtel Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (INR m)
  • Figure 12 - Vodafone Idea Operating Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 13 - Reliance Jio Historical Revenue, EBITDA and Capex (INR m), 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 14 - BSNL & MSNL Historical Revenue (INR m), 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 15 - Tata Communications Revenue and Revenue Growth (INR m), 2014-2019
  • Figure 16 - Global Carrier Gross Revenue and Growth (INR m), 2014-2019
  • Figure 17 - ATC Gross Revenue and Growth Rate (INR m), 2014-2019
  • Figure 18 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 19 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 20 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2015-2019
  • Figure 21 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
  • Figure 22 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (INR bn), 2018-2025
  • Figure 23 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (INR), 2014-2025
  • Figure 24 - India Telecom Circles Map
  • Figure 25 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
  • Figure 26 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
  • Figure 27 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
  • Figure 28 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Speed and Ranking Comparison
  • Figure 29 - Spectrum available for IoT in India
  • Figure 30 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 31 - India Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2015-2019
  • Figure 32 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 33 - Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
  • Figure 34 - Tower per Capita, 2019
  • Figure 35 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
  • Figure 36 - 5G Network Slices Structure
  • Figure 37 - Effect of Frequency on Range
  • Figure 38 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
  • Figure 39 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
  • Figure 40 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

List of Tables

  • Table 1 - India - Key Statistics
  • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Gross Revenue by Operators (Pro forma), 2014-2019
  • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018-2025
  • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
  • Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 6 - Historical Bharti Airtel Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, FY14-FY19
  • Table 7 - Historical Vodafone Idea (Pro Forma) Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 8 - Historical Reliance Jio Corporation Revenue and Profit Mix, 2015-2019
  • Table 9 - Historical BSNL and MTNL Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 10 - Historical Tata Communications Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 11 - Historical Global Carrier Gross Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 12 - Historical ACT Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 13 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 14 - India Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 15 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 16 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 17 - Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 18 - Mobile Spectrum by Operators and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 19 - Bharti Airtel Mobile Frequencies and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 20 - Vodafone Idea Mobile Frequencies and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 21 - Reliance Jio Mobile Frequencies and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 22 - BSNL/MTNL Frequencies and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 23 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 24 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 25 - India Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 26 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in India
  • Table 27 - Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio, BSNL and Tata Communications Infrastructure Landscape
  • Table 28 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
  • Table 29 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
  • Table 30 - Telco Transaction Database, 2009-2020
目次

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Taiwan telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE INDIA TELECOMS REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

‘The India Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Indian market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

India Telecoms Report at a Glance

Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Indian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Growing mobile phone penetration and emerging fixed broadband take-up among households will fuel future growth over the next five years.

According to our ‘India Telecoms Report’, Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions and fixed broadband subscribers will continue to fuel the telecoms sector growth in the 2019-25 period. More than 600m people became Internet users over the last in six years and another 600m more Internet users are expected to come online over the next six years by 2025.

Following the market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

Mobile subscriptions ares growing faster than mobile service revenue leading to ARPU decline after 3 years of intense competition with the market transitioning to 4G. With a market entry in late 2016, Jio jolted the mobile market from a standing start to becoming the largest mobile operator by the subscriber and third-largest by revenue in just three years.

Reliance Jio launch strategy was to offer three months of free data and free voice, and once that was up, kept the free voice offering permanent while charging only a low price for mobile data (INR50 for 1GB). This strategy is reminiscent to the classic Silicon Valley bet: spend money upfront to acquire customers, then make it up on volume because of a superior cost structure enabled by its 4G only network and the near-zero-marginal cost nature of technology. Jio's launch timing was perfect just at the time when competitors had sputtering 4G networks, it offered free Internet to a nation and demographics that could not afford it and increased its addressable market while its competitors were still relying on legacy voice and SMS revenue. Mobile network competitors quickly struggled to compete and a massive wave of consolidation ensued.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow again through to 2025 after a marked decline from 2017 and 2018 due to a mobile war.

Capex Investments

The Capex from Indian operators is highly cyclical with mobile rollout leading to investments in line with the operators' top-line growth. Capex investments peaked between 2016 and 2018 while Jio built its 4G mobile network and is declining to lower level in 2019 and will increase again from 2020 through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand. The Capex to GDP ratio spiked between 2015 and 2017 and its started to slide from 2018 onwards.

Operator Profiles

Most operators lost revenue and EBITDA share to Jio in 2017 and 2018 and Bharti Airtel started to recover in 2019 with price rises across the market. Vodafone Idea lost both revenue and EBITDA share while merging and cost reduction measures started to flow in 2019 with improving EBITDA and cash flow.

The wave of market consolidation followed by Jio's market entry and the intense pricing competition should subside with a market of three large operators with high debt loads, all now focusing on a strategy of profitable growth in the mobile market.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

The mobile telecoms sector began consolidating two years ago, with twelve operators in 2017, India has now only four mobile network operators with nationwide across all 22 circles; Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio and BSNL/MTNL.

Average annual mobile revenue growth was lower (3.2%) than mobile service subscriptions growth (4.6%) during the period 2014-2019 highlighting the intense price war since Jio's market putting pressure on ARPU compounded by a reduction of dual-SIM cards feature, driving the low growth in mobile subscriptions. The 4G migration leapfrogged by Jio and followed by Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel is driving the growth in higher ARPU for operators with the mobile market consolidation now largely complete.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The fixed broadband market is experiencing slow-growth mostly driven by the loss of share by the incumbent BSNL, followed by Bharti Airtel, Atria Convergence Technologies (ATC), Reliance Jio (including Den Networks and Hathway Cable), Vodafone Idea via its subsidiary You Broadband, all are now investing in full-fibre networks.

However, more competition is expected in the fixed broadband market with Jio's entry with its residential fibre broadband services likely to disrupt incumbent BSNL but also should increase the residential broadband subscriptions significantly.

Fixed broadband penetration is forecasted to grow modestly as India's investments on full-fibre networks are slowly taking off with affordable packages and increased broadband household penetration growing.

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Our ‘India Telecoms Report’ transactions database analysis highlights the hive of transactions in the India tower market, with the majority of telecommunications operators shifting assets to infrastructure entities and selling down to repay debts and further investments for capacity and coverage of their mobile networks. However, in the short to medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the fixed broadband market, now expected to come under pressure with JioFiber's launch and also broaden the scope of services beyond carriage to content and e-Commerce. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the huge debt pile and the looming required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators. A new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years will continue to consolidate around the large mobile operators, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS INDIA TELECOMS REPORT:

American Tower Corporation (ATC), Atria Convergence Technologies (ACT), Bharti Airtel, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), Den Networks, GTL Infrastructure, Hathway Cable, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL), Reliance Communications (RCom), Reliance Jio, Sify, Tata Communications, Vodafone Idea.

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

  • 1.1. India Population
  • 1.2. India Households
  • 1.3. India's GDP

2. COVID-19 Impact

3. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

  • 3.1. Market Overview
  • 3.2. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
  • 3.3. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
  • 3.4. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
    • 3.4.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • 3.4.2. Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
    • 3.4.3. Capex to GDP Benchmark
    • 3.4.4. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2019-2025

4. Telecommunications Operators Profile

  • 4.1. Bharti Airtel Profile
    • 4.1.1. Bharti Airtel Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 4.2. Vodafone Idea Profile
    • 4.2.1. Vodafone Idea Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 4.1. Reliance Jio Profile
    • 4.1.1. Jio Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 4.2. BSNL Profile
    • 4.2.1. BSNL & MTNL Revenue and Capex, 2014 - 2019
  • 4.3. Other Players Profile
    • 4.3.1. Tata communications
    • 4.3.2. Global International Carriers
    • 4.3.3. Other Telecoms Operators

5. Mobile Market

  • 5.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 5.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 5.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 5.1.3. India Smartphone Share, 2019
    • 5.1.4. India Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
  • 5.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 5.2.1. Historical India Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 5.2.2. Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 5.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
  • 5.3. Spectrum Holdings
    • 5.3.1. Spectrum Pricing and Regulation
    • 5.3.2. 5G Trials and 5G Auctions Results
    • 5.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
    • 5.3.1. Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
  • 5.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
  • 5.5. Mobile Speed Tests
    • 5.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
  • 5.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

6. Broadband Market

  • 6.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
  • 6.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

7. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

  • 7.1. Fixed Infrastructure
    • 7.1.1. Government Plans
    • 7.1.2. Submarine Cables
  • 7.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
    • 7.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
    • 7.2.2. Tower Density Benchmark
  • 7.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

8. Thematics / Opportunities

  • 8.1. Going for Scale
  • 8.2. Going for Scope
    • 8.2.1. e-Commerce
    • 8.2.2. Digital Payments
  • 8.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
    • 8.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
  • 8.4. 5G versus Fixed
    • 8.4.1. 5G Overview
    • 8.4.2. 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
    • 8.4.3. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

9. Telco M&A Transaction Database

10. Methodology

11. Copyright Notice

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