Taiwan Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 66 Pages
当レポートでは、台湾の通信産業の現状と将来展望について分析し、全体的な市場規模 (加入者数、市場収益額、資本投資額) の推移と見通しや、分野別の詳細動向 (モバイル通信、固定回線ブロードバンド、通信インフラなど)、主要企業のプロファイルと業績、今後の技術進歩・市場成長の方向性 (5Gの普及見通しなど)、といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。
This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Taiwan telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:
The Taiwan Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Taiwanese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.
Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Taiwanese telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With already a saturated mobile phone penetration and fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain subdued with a declining working population and an aging population over the long term.
Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow but lower its household penetration over the same period due to fixed-wireless substitution. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.
Following the market contraction over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts flat revenue growth to 2025, as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.
Mobile subscriptions ares growing faster than mobile service revenue leading to ARPU decline after 3 years of intense competition with the market transitioned completely transitioned to 4G after shutting down 2G and 3G networks in 2017 and 2019 respectively.
Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to remain flat through to 2025 after a marked decline from 2016 due to mobile service revenue pressure partially offset by fixed broadband and enterprise data growth.
The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2014 and has been sliding since, to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase again from 2020 through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, increasing again Capex to Sales Ratio.
Most operators maintained EBITDA margins at the expense of revenue growth with Chunghwa losing the most share while Far EasTone and Taiwan Mobile also losing mobile service revenue share in the 2014-2019 period at the expense of Asia Pacific Telecom and Taiwan Star.
As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and stabilising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of postpaid subscriptions remained stable at about 80% between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is growing in popularity with SIM-only offerings and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.
According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Taiwan mobile users pay for competitively priced data as mobile users recorded the largest monthly download in the Asia Pacific region.
The fixed broadband market is experiencing a subdued growth with Chunghwa Telecom losing share to HFC cable operators such as KBro, Taiwan Mobile, TBC and CNS. Chunghwa Telecom invested early in the 2010s in FTTx technologies while migrating its DSL subscribers to its HiNet network. Competing cable operators also invested in upgrading their cable networks bundling mobile, IPTV and e-Commerce services but falling short of upgrading to full-fibre networks limiting opportunities for gigabit speeds.
Fixed broadband penetration is forecasted to decline as fixed-wireless substitution is increasing supporting a rising number of lone-occupancy households.
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.
However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity. Subdued growth due to ARPU pressure compounded by low population growth is pushing telcos to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Taiwan in both the mobile and fixed broadband market, after some failed merger of cable operators.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
Asia Pacific Telecom (APT), China Network Systems (CNS), Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, Kbro, National Communications Commission (NCC), Taiwan Mobile, Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC), Taiwan Star (T Star).