Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 69 Pages
This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Thailland telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:
The Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Thai market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.
Idem Est Research expects the Thailand telecommunications industry to grow strongly thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, despite the political uncertainties, amid an uncertain economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With already strong mobile phone penetration and robust fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite subdued growth in the young working population and an ageing population over the long term.
Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.
Following the telecoms market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, fuelled by data monetisation as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.
Mobile revenue is growing faster than mobile subscription numbers leading to ARPU growth as the market transitions from 2G & 3G to 4G mobile data services.
Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2016 due to legacy 2G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.
The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2016 and has been sliding since has been sliding to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase again through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, maintaining a strong Capex to Sales Ratio.
AIS and True Corp gained revenue share in the 2014-2019 period at the expense of DTAC which just completed a strategic turnaround, TOT and CAT Telecom increased revenue from spectrum concessions but struggle to compete for fixed or mobile customers.
As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and raising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of prepaid subscriptions shrank between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is growing in popularity and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.
According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Thailand has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is among the highest in the region.
The fixed broadband market is experiencing strong growth mostly driven by three players, AIS, Jasmine and TrueOnline all investing in full-fibre networks. Jasmine actively migrated its DSL subscribers to its fibre network while TrueOnline and AIS are growing their subscriber base by capturing a large of broadband subscriber net-adds.
AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.
Households growth and new FTTH investments by AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine and others will drive up the fixed-broadband household penetration.
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.
However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the government merging TOT and CAT Telecom, Jasmine, losing its founder/CEO for insider trading and Telenor expanding its presence in the region. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators and a new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
3BB, Advanced Info Service (AIS), CAT Telecom, CS Loxinfo, DTAC, DTIF, Jasmine, JASIF, NBTC, Symphony, Triple T, Telephone Organization of Thailand Corp (TOT), True Corporation.