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タイの通信業界:2020-2025年

Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

出版日: | 発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research | ページ情報: 英文 69 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

価格
価格表記: USDを日本円(税抜)に換算
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=105.58円
タイの通信業界:2020-2025年
出版日: 2020年03月27日
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 69 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

タイの通信業界は、政治の不安定要素、Covid-19のパンデミックによる経済展望の不確実性にも関わらず、業界の防衛的な性質により安定した成長が予測されています。既に携帯電話および家庭における固定ブロードバンドが普及しているため、若い労働人口の増加と長期的な人口の高齢化にも関わらず、将来の成長は堅調に推移する見込みです。

当レポートでは、タイの通信業界を調査し、人口など国内主要統計、総市場の収益およびCAPEXの推移・予測、通信事業者のプロファイル、モバイル&ブロードバンド加入者数および収益の推移・予測、通信インフラ投資の動向、市場機会の分析などをまとめています。

第1章 主要統計

  • タイの人口
  • タイの世帯数
  • タイのGDP

第2章 通信市場全体の推移・予測

  • 市場概要
  • 収益の推移
  • 市場予測
  • CAPEXの推移・予測
    • CAPEX:過去の推移
    • CAPEX vs 収益:国別ベンチマーキング
    • CAPEX vs GDP:ベンチマーキング
    • CAPEX支出予測

第3章 通信事業者のプロファイル

  • Advanced Info Service
    • 収益・利益構成
  • DTAC
    • 収益・利益構成
  • True Corporation
    • 収益・利益構成
  • TOT
    • 収益・利益構成
  • CAT Telecom
    • 収益・利益構成
  • Jasmine Profile
  • Symphony Communications

第4章 モバイル市場

  • モバイル加入者数の推移・予測
    • モバイル加入者数の推移
    • モバイル加入者の市場シェア
    • スマートフォンのシェア
    • モバイル加入者数の予測
  • モバイル収益の推移・予測
    • モバイルサービス収益の推移
    • モバイルサービス収益の予測
    • モバイル加入者数のARPU
  • 帯域
    • 既存帯域
    • 5Gトライアル・今後の5Gオークション
    • モバイル帯域ポートフォリオ分析
    • 帯域深度ベンチマーキング:国別
  • モバイルダウンロードデータ・料金動向
  • モバイル速度試験
    • Ookla
  • IoT

第5章 ブロードバンド市場

  • 固定ブロードバンド加入者数の推移
  • 固定ブロードバンド加入者数の予測

第6章 通信インフラ投資

  • 固定インフラ
    • 政府の計画
    • 海底ケーブル
  • モバイルタワーインフラ情勢
  • 通信インフラの比較

第7章 テーマ/市場機会

  • 規模
  • 範囲
  • 通信事業者の新しい運用モデル
  • 5G vs 固定

第8章 通信事業者のトランザクションデータベース

第9章 調査手法

第10章 著作権表示

図表

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Thailand
  • Figure 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019
  • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2019
  • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019
  • Figure 5 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 6 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 7 - Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
  • Figure 8 - AIS Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 9 - AIS Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (THB m)
  • Figure 10 - DTAC Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 11 - DTAC Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 12 - True Corp Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 13 - True Corp Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 14 - TOT Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 15 - TOT Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 16 - CAT Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 17 - CAT Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 18 - Jasmine Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2014-2019
  • Figure 19 - Symphony Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2014-2019
  • Figure 20 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 21 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 22 - Mobile Prepaid Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2015-2019
  • Figure 23 - Mobile Postpaid Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2015-2019
  • Figure 24 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
  • Figure 25 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 26 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (THB), 2018-2025
  • Figure 27 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
  • Figure 28 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
  • Figure 29 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
  • Figure 30 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Speed and Ranking Comparison
  • Figure 31 - Spectrum available for IoT in Thailand
  • Figure 32 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 33 - Thailand Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2015-2019
  • Figure 34 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 35 - Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
  • Figure 36 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
  • Figure 37 - 5G Network Slices Structure
  • Figure 38 - Effect of Frequency on Range
  • Figure 39 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
  • Figure 40 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
  • Figure 41 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

List of Tables

  • Table 1 - Thailand - Key Statistics
  • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2019
  • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
  • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
  • Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 6 - Historical AIS Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, FY14-FY19
  • Table 7 - Historical DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 8 - Historical True Corporation Revenue and Profit Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 9 - Historical TOT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 10 - Historical CAT Telecom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 11 - Historical Jasmine Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 12 - Historical Symphony Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 13 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 14 - Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 15 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 16 - Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 17 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 18 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 19 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 20 - Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 21 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Thailand
  • Table 22 - AIS, DTAC, True Corp/DTIF, Jasmine, Symphony, TOT, CAT Telecom Telco Infrastructure Landscape
  • Table 23 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
  • Table 24 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
  • Table 25 - Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2019
目次

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Thailland telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE THAILAND TELECOMS REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Thai market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thailand Telecoms Report at a Glance

Idem Est Research expects the Thailand telecommunications industry to grow strongly thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, despite the political uncertainties, amid an uncertain economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With already strong mobile phone penetration and robust fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite subdued growth in the young working population and an ageing population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Following the telecoms market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, fuelled by data monetisation as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

Mobile revenue is growing faster than mobile subscription numbers leading to ARPU growth as the market transitions from 2G & 3G to 4G mobile data services.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2016 due to legacy 2G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2016 and has been sliding since has been sliding to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase again through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, maintaining a strong Capex to Sales Ratio.

Operator Profiles

AIS and True Corp gained revenue share in the 2014-2019 period at the expense of DTAC which just completed a strategic turnaround, TOT and CAT Telecom increased revenue from spectrum concessions but struggle to compete for fixed or mobile customers.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and raising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of prepaid subscriptions shrank between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is growing in popularity and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Thailand has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is among the highest in the region.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The fixed broadband market is experiencing strong growth mostly driven by three players, AIS, Jasmine and TrueOnline all investing in full-fibre networks. Jasmine actively migrated its DSL subscribers to its fibre network while TrueOnline and AIS are growing their subscriber base by capturing a large of broadband subscriber net-adds.

AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Households growth and new FTTH investments by AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine and others will drive up the fixed-broadband household penetration.

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the government merging TOT and CAT Telecom, Jasmine, losing its founder/CEO for insider trading and Telenor expanding its presence in the region. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators and a new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS THAILAND TELECOMS REPORT:

3BB, Advanced Info Service (AIS), CAT Telecom, CS Loxinfo, DTAC, DTIF, Jasmine, JASIF, NBTC, Symphony, Triple T, Telephone Organization of Thailand Corp (TOT), True Corporation.

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

  • 1.1. Thailand Population
  • 1.2. Thailand Households
  • 1.3. Thailand's GDP

2. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

  • 2.1. Market Overview
  • 2.2. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
  • 2.3. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
  • 2.4. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
    • 2.4.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • 2.4.2. Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
    • 2.4.3. Capex to GDP Benchmark
    • 2.4.4. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3. Telecommunications Operators Profile

  • 3.1. Advanced Info Service Profile
    • 3.1.1. AIS Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. DTAC Profile
    • 3.2.1. DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.1. True Corporation Profile
    • 3.1.1. True Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. TOT Profile
    • 3.2.1. TOT Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.3. CAT Telecom Corporation Profile
    • 3.3.1. CAT Telecom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.4. Jasmine Profile
    • 3.4.1. Jasmine Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.5. Symphony Communications Profile

4. Mobile market

  • 4.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.3. Thailand Smartphone Share, 2019
    • 4.1.4. Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
  • 4.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.2.1. Historical Thailand Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 4.2.2. Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 4.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
  • 4.3. Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.1. Existing Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.2. 5G Trials and 5G Auctions Results
    • 4.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
    • 4.3.1. Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
  • 4.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
  • 4.5. Mobile Speed Tests
    • 4.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
  • 4.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

5. Broadband Market

  • 5.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
  • 5.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

  • 6.1. Fixed Infrastructure
    • 6.1.1. Government Plans
    • 6.1.2. Submarine Cables
  • 6.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
    • 6.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
  • 6.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7. Thematics / Opportunities

  • 7.1. Going for Scale
  • 7.2. Going for Scope
    • 7.2.1. e-Commerce
    • 7.2.2. Digital Payments
  • 7.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
    • 7.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
  • 7.4. 5G versus Fixed
    • 7.4.1. 5G Overview
    • 7.4.2. 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
    • 7.4.3. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8. Telco M&A Transaction Database

9. Methodology

10. Copyright Notice

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