Malaysia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
発行: Idem Est Advisory & Research
ページ情報: 英文 58 Pages
This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Malaysian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:
‘The Malaysia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Malaysia market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.
The Malaysian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with four large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, albeit some political uncertainties.
Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2010, sliding down every year since then.
Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and the market shift to postpaid.
Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2017 and 2018 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.
The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but has been sliding in 2019 and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. Telekom Malaysia nearly halved its Capex in 2019 while Maxis, Celcom and Digi have more consistent investment profiles.
Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers decreased significantly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to legacy prepaid voice and SMS to data-centric usage increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.
According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Malaysia has the highest monthly download per user while pricing per GB decreased by half for Malaysian users.
The National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP) is a Malaysian government program of building full-fibre networks to homes, businesses and government buildings covering 98% of the population by the end of 2023 with minimum speeds of 30Mbps and 500Mbps in urban areas and gigabit speeds in industrial areas. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of RM11 billion.
The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by low competition with Telekom Malaysia remaining the dominant fixed broadband incumbent.
Households growth and new investments by Maxis, TIME dotCom and YTL will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.
Idem Est Research predicts the next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about “scale” among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Telekom Malaysia, Maxis, Axiata and Digi.
In most markets, telcos operators increasingly find inorganic market growth very challenging, provided the limited scope for M&A due to regulatory barriers.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
Altel, Astro, Axiata, Celcom, Digi, edotco, Maxis, REDtone, Sacofa, Telekom Malaysia, TIME dotCom, Usaha Tegas, U Mobile, ViewQuest and YTL.