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米国の住宅向け太陽光発電の経済展望 2016-2020年:グリッドパリティ・料金設計・ネットメータリングのリスク

U.S. Residential Solar Economic Outlook 2016-2020: Grid Parity, Rate Design and Net Metering Risk

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 352640
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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米国の住宅向け太陽光発電の経済展望 2016-2020年:グリッドパリティ・料金設計・ネットメータリングのリスク U.S. Residential Solar Economic Outlook 2016-2020: Grid Parity, Rate Design and Net Metering Risk
出版日: 2016年02月10日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

米国における住宅向け太陽光発電 (PV) は急成長しており、この3年間で少なくとも50%拡大しています。コストが低下し、小売価格が上昇しているため、住宅用太陽光発電のエコノミクスは「グリッドパリティ」を達成しています。

当レポートでは、米国の住宅向け太陽光発電市場の動向について調査し、米国の住宅用PV設置数、グリッドパリティを実現している州の数、ケーススタディ、および市場展望などをまとめています。

第1章 イントロダクション

  • 米国の住宅用PV設置数
  • グリッドパリティのケーススタディ:DTE Energy
  • 米国のPV設置数およびグリッドパリティの州の数

第2章 グリッドパリティとは?

  • 設置価格予測:全国 vs. 地域の平均価格の仮定
  • 州による追加の奨励金がある州の数:年度別
  • グリッドパリティの計算方法
  • グリッドパリティモデリングの主要データ計算
  • 商業運転日

第3章 どの州がグリッドバリティを実現しているか?理由は?

  • 住宅向け設置のシェア:上位10州
  • グリッドパリティを実現している州の数
  • コネチカット
  • グリッドパリティ州の数:州の奨励金付き・無し
  • 電気料金の容積チャージのシェア:ユーティリティ別
  • サウスカロライナにおけるグリッドパリティのメトリクス
  • グリッドパリティを実現している州の数

第4章 詳細:米国の住宅向け太陽光発電市場の展望

  • グリッドパリティを実現している州の数
  • 全国の住宅PVインストールコスト予測
  • グリッドパリティを実現している州の数
  • 米国の住宅向け太陽光発電の経済・設置展望
目次

Residential solar in the U.S. has grown by impressive strides over the past decade

Residential PV is the fastest-growing market segment in U.S. solar, expanding by at least 50% over the past three years.

  • Between 2010 and Q3 2015, quarterly capacity additions have increased tenfold.
  • By Q1 2016, the cumulative number of U.S. homeowners with rooftop solar will eclipse the 1-million mark.

To date, most analysis of residential solar's growth has focused on the following logic

As installation costs continue to decline and retail electricity rates continue to rise, residential solar economics become increasingly attractive in a growing number of states.

As costs decline and retail rates rise, residential solar economics then reach “grid parity”

What is grid parity?

  • Grid parity is a minimum threshold of economic attractiveness where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) dips below a customer's electricity bill savings in year 1 of system life.

A traditional grid parity analysis compares the LCOE of rooftop solar to a customer's blended retail rate, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Agency.

But in reality, solar savings are rarely equal to retail electricity prices.

  • This comparison fails to account for rate design and net metering, which impact the value of the solar that is consumed by the customer and exported to the grid.

This report explores how rate design and net metering reform risk complicate the residential solar economic outlook in ways that can either strengthen or weaken the rooftop solar savings that can be attained by a customer.

How does GTM Research model residential solar economics?

Rate design and NEM matter: A case study on grid parity in Michigan's largest utility

15% of annual electricity costs for a DTE Energy residential customer in 2016 come from fixed charges

This means that the LCOE for a 5-kWdc system installed in 2016 is actually 7%, not 3% higher than gross solar savings in year 1

Rooftop solar economics are highly sensitive to net metering reforms

In 2016, there are now 20 states that have reached grid parity

How do NEM reforms impact the grid parity landscape across each state?

What if every state's major utility added a new $50 per month fixed charge?

Number of residential state markets at grid parity in 2016:

  • Business-as-usual: 20 states
  • $50 per month fixed charge: 2 states

U.S. Residential Solar Economic Outlook: Key Takeaways for 2020 and Beyond

The future of rate design and net metering rules will shape the residential solar economic outlook in ways that can either strengthen or weaken the rooftop solar savings offered to customers.
  • As retail rates evolve from flat or consumption-based tiered structures to time-of-use, rate design will play an even greater role in shaping residential solar economics by setting price signals that either align with or deviate from peak PV production.
  • In the near term, monthly fixed charges rank as the greatest policy risk that could undercut residential solar economics.
  • But through 2020, incremental cost reductions to rooftop solar, alongside incremental retail rate hikes in most utility service territories, will serve as sufficient tailwinds to expand the number of states that reach grid parity from 20 to 42 states.
  • In the long run, when solar becomes a mainstream power source beyond 2020, regulators and utilities are more likely to align compensation for solar exports more closely to wholesale market pricing, underscoring the need for continued installed cost reductions to counter a policy environment in which rooftop solar compensation is significantly undercut.
  • The future value proposition of rooftop solar will depend on its pairing with other distributed energy resources, namely battery storage, which will enable rooftop solar production to better align with peak electricity price periods and optimize self-consumption to mitigate the risk of net metering reforms that roll back the value of solar exported to the grid.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • a. U.S Residential PV Installations, 2006-2015
  • b. Grid Parity Case Study: DTE Energy
  • c. U.S. PV Installations and Number of States at Grid Parity, 2015-2020E

2. What Does Grid Parity Mean?

  • a. Installed Price Forecast: National vs. Regional Average Price Assumptions
  • b. Number of States With Additional State Incentive Funding by Year
  • c. How is Grid Parity Calculated?
  • d. Primary Input Calculations to Grid Parity Modeling
  • e. 2016 Commercial Operation Date: Year 1 Bill Impact From vs. Payback Period by State Price

3. Which States are at Grid Parity in 2016 and Why?

  • a. Share of Residential Installations, Top 10 States, 2010-2015
  • b. Number of States at Grid Parity in 2016
  • c. Connecticut: Net Year 1 Savings by Installed Cost Scenario
  • d. Number of States Grid Parity in 2016: With and Without State Incentives
  • e. Volumetric Charge's Share of Electricity Bill by Utility
  • f. 2016 Grid Parity Metrics in South Carolina: Default vs. Solar- Friendly TOU Rate
  • g. Number of States at Grid Parity in 2016: Business-as-Usual NEM vs. NEM Reform Scenarios
    • i. Scenario: Adding a $10 Monthly Fixed Charge by State
    • ii. Scenario: Adding a $50 Monthly Fixed Charge by State
    • iii. Scenario: Adding a $5/kW/Month Peak Demand Charge
    • iv. Scenario: Adding a $15/kW/Month Peak Demand Charge
    • v. Scenario: Solar PV Export Compensation Reduced by 10%
    • vi. Scenario: Solar PV Export Compensation Reduced by 50%

4. In Depth: U.S. Residential Solar Market Outlook

  • a. Number States at Grid Parity in 2020
  • b. National Residential PV Installed Cost Forecast: 2010-2020E
  • c. Number of States at Grid Parity, 2015-2020E
  • d. U.S. Residential Solar Economic and Installation Outlook: 2015-2020E
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