表紙
市場調査レポート

ラテンアメリカのPV計画

Latin America PV Playbook - Q2 2016 Market Update

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 339662
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=101.39円で換算しております。
Back to Top
ラテンアメリカのPV計画 Latin America PV Playbook - Q2 2016 Market Update
出版日: 2016年06月07日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカの太陽光発電市場の動向について調査し、市場規模の推移と予測、部門 (ユーティリティ・産業・商用・住宅) 別の内訳、プロジェクトの発表および進捗動向、市場影響因子の分析などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 ブラジル

第3章 チリ

第4章 メキシコ

第5章 アルゼンチン:成長中の市場

第6章 ペルー:成長中の市場

第7章 中米

第8章 カリブ海諸国

第9章 その他

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

About the Latin America PV Playbook

Deep insights on an emerging market

Latin America is at the global frontier of emerging solar markets. Countries like Mexico and Chile are providing regulatory frameworks for competitive PV development while Brazil along with countries in Central America, the Caribbean and the Rest of South America is supporting gigawatts of deployment through solar-specific auctions and more direct government support. The region is at an early stage but offers a significant opportunity due to its sizable long-term potential and world-leading growth rates. To enable players to make the most of the region's potential, GTM Research's Latin America PV Playbook is the industry's most insightful analysis of the market.

What's in the Playbook?

  • Quarterly Market Updates - The Playbook is published quarterly, providing insights into the major developments of the previous quarter. With an eye on the future, it offers an assessment of the trajectory of the market by forecasting demand and analyzing the projects and players that will make it happen. Recognizing that the market has numerous upside and downside risks, the Playbook also provides a scenario-based assessment of the market's future
  • Comprehensive Coverage - The Playbook's analysis spans across market segments - residential, commercial, industrial and utility-scale, and includes a deep focus on the major markets of Brazil, Chile and Mexico while covering countries in Central America, the Caribbean and the Rest of South America
  • In-depth Project Database1 - Every quarter, the Playbook is accompanied by the Latin America PV Project Tracker which is a spreadsheet-based database of over 1,100 projects across all the countries in the region with details on project developers, project sizes, locations, off-takers, PPA values and more

image1

Mohit Anand is a Senior Analyst at GTM Research covering global solar markets. With previous experience covering demand dynamics and business strategies in emerging markets like India, Mohit analyzes the market fundamentals, government policies, risks, and competitive strategies that determine the success of solar players globally. Before joining GTM Research, he participated in the early stages of growth of the Indian solar industry by setting up a solar market intelligence team, advising project developers on new solar business models, and consulting for international solar companies on their market success strategies. Mohit holds a bachelor's degree in economics from St. Xavier's College, Mumbai, a master's degree in international studies from the National University of Singapore, and a master's degree in public administration from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.


image2

Manan Parikh is a Research Associate at GTM Research covering global downstream markets. Prior to GTM, his work has been extensively research based, centering upon alternative fuels infrastructure development and Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS) policy models for the Schatz Energy Research Center and UC Berkeley in Northern California. In California, he was also an ambassador to start-up teams within the Clean Tech Open accelerator as well as a consultant to DOE SunShot Catalyst Award winner, PVComplete. In Washington, DC he worked on biomass policy at the American Council On Renewable Energy. He is an alumnus of The University of Texas at Austin, where he graduated with a B.S. in Biochemistry, as well as the DC-based Clean Energy Leadership Institute in its inaugural class.


Executive Summary

Executive Summary: Auction-led demand continues to strengthen prospects for solar in Latin America

image3

  • Latin America had a record year in 2015 installing 1.4GW, 813MW more than in 2014
  • 2016 is set to be another record year for solar in the region with the market growing 55% to 2.2GW
  • The strengthening of the market is reflected in the fact that the region's share of global demand will increase year-on-year to peak at 9.3% in 2018
  • Utility-scale auctions in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico in which solar is outcompeting other clean technologies are the key driver behind its strong growth in the region

Executive Summary: Chile leads regional demand but will soon give way to Mexico and Brazil

image4

  • Chile was the largest market in 2015 with 37% share of regional demand and will remain in the lead in 2016: The market has been driven by merchant projects
  • Mexico will be close to Chile in 2016 with 29% of regional demand share as several grandfathered projects are under construction now that there's more certainty in the market
  • Brazil has a 3GW pipeline driven by auctions but few installations: This will change in 2016/2017 as several projects face completion deadlines
  • An auction in Peru and one planned in Argentina position them as markets on the rise in Latin America

Executive Summary: Brazil's outlook is weak whereas Mexico's has significantly strengthened

Latin AmericaMajor Markets' PV Outlook

image5

Outlook:Weak

  • Significant downside risks from political uncertainty and a very weak macroeconomic environment make conditions weak
  • Falling electricity demand and cancellation of several transmission projects needed for solar generation further weaken fundamentals
  • Solar installations remain stuck because of a severe lack of financing and drastic depreciation of the Real

image6

Outlook: Neutral

  • Low spot prices have suppressed demand: They are at their historical lowest and often negative due to high congestion at the SIC-SING interconnection point and will not recover until the new 753km Cardones-Polpaico transmission line opens
  • A crash in global copper prices has contracted mining demand but copper prices are showing early signs of a turnaround and demand from the sector could rise again

image7

Outlook: Strong

  • Solar's strong win of 74% of energy offered in the country's first clean energy auction held in March 2016 has boosted market sentiment and demand
  • Another auction with 9TWh of energy on offer is scheduled for Sept. 2016 and solar could win 60-70% of the energy offered
  • 400-500MW of additional grandfathered projects will execute given better certainty in the marketfrom the energy transition law

Executive Summary: The utility-scale segment dominates demand but the distributed generation segment will strengthen over the next years

image8

  • Auction-led demand is skewing the market towards the utility-scale segment as governments prefer rapid solar competitiveness through economies of scale
  • Brazil, Chile and Mexico each have predominantly utility-scale markets
  • New markets Peru and Argentina too are pushing utility-scale projects
  • Brazil and Mexico have early stage distributed generation markets that will grow and push that segment's share of demand in the region
  • Chile is the only major market that is conspicuous in its lack of a viable incentive for distributed generation

Executive Summary: Chile continues to soar above the pack for installed capacity in Latin America; Brazil and Mexico make strides in projects under construction

image9

Executive Summary: Enel Green Power leads the way in Latin America with over 700MWdc under construction in key regional markets

image10

Accompanying Latin America PV Project Tracker

image11

image12

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Brazil
  • 3. Chile
  • 4. Mexico
  • 5. Market on the Rise - Argentina
  • 6. Market on the Rise - Peru
  • 7. Central America
  • 8. The Caribbean
  • 9. The Rest of South America

List of Figures From the Report

Executive Summary

  • Latin America PV Demand 2010-2020E
  • Latin American Markets' Share of Regional Demand 2015-2020E
  • Latin America Major Markets' PV Outlook
  • Latin America Market Segmentation 2015-2020E
  • Regional Project Pipelines (MWdc)
  • Top Developers with under construction pipelines in select markets

Brazil

  • Brazil Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Brazil Market Segmentation 2015-2020E
  • Brazil Utility Scale (projects >5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Brazil Utility-scale Developer Rankings Q2 2016
  • Developments taking place within Brazil's PV market
  • Falling value of PPA prices and rising ceiling prices in Brazil
  • Brazil Distributed Generation (<20 kW-5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Brazil Overall PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Brazil Residential (<20 kW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016-2020E
  • Brazil Commercial (20 kW-1 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016-2020E
  • Brazil Industrial (1-5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016-2020E
  • Brazil Utility-Scale (>5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016-2020E

Chile

  • Chile Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Chile Market Segmentation 2015-2020E
  • Chile Utility Scale (projects >5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Chile Utility-scale Developer Rankings Q2 2016
  • Sistema Interconectado del Norte Grande (SING) Grid PV Highlights
  • Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC) Grid PV Highlights
  • Difference in capacity awarded between the last CNE auction and the next one
  • Spot prices in Chile in SIC and SING grids
  • Change in expected SING territory PV Pipeline
  • Chile Distributed Generation (<20 kW-5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Chile Overall PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Chile Residential (<20 kW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Chile Commercial (20 kW-1 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Chile Industrial (1-5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Chile Utility-Scale (>5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E

Mexico

  • Mexico Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Mexico Market Segmentation 2015-2020E
  • Mexico Utility Scale (projects >5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Mexico Utility-scale Developer Rankings Q2 2016
  • Total capacity of auctioned projects by developer
  • Total capacity of auctioned projects by state
  • IRR Estimates Relative to PPA Prices with fixed GTM Research Assumptions
  • State-level Status of Grandfathered Pipelines
  • Where CENACE will award projects in the next auction
  • Mexico Distributed Generation (<20 kW-5 MW) PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Mexico Overall PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Mexico Residential (<20 kW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Mexico Commercial (20 kW-1 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E
  • Mexico Industrial (1-5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 201E-2020E
  • Mexico Utility-Scale (>5 MW) PV Demand Scenarios 2016E-2020E

Market on the Rise: Argentina

  • Argentina Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Argentina Policy Evolution in Favor of Solar
  • Insolation Levels in Argentina

Market on the Rise: Peru

  • Peru Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Auctioned capacity versus operational capacity in Peru

Central America

  • Central America Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
  • Central America Market Segmentation 2015-2020E

The Caribbean

  • The Caribbean Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E

The Caribbean

  • The Rest of South America Overall PV Demand 2015-2020E
Back to Top