市場調査レポート

世界の原子力発電所展望

Global Nuclear Power Plant Outlook, 2013-2020

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 271119
出版日 ページ情報 英文 189 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界の原子力発電所展望 Global Nuclear Power Plant Outlook, 2013-2020
出版日: 2013年05月23日 ページ情報: 英文 189 Pages
概要

原子力発電産業は、新しい原子炉設計の可能性と世界中の政府が長期的エネルギーソリューションとして重視していることで、再び注目を集めています。

当レポートでは、商業原子力発電および原子力発電ビジネスの背景について調査し、原子力発電量追加予測の正確さ、発電所建設・運営のコスト推計の合理性、原子力「復興」は短期的か持続的かといった問題を取り上げ、福島の事故が他国の原子力プログラムに及ぼす影響、原子力技術間およびその他の発電ソースとのコスト評価と比較、新規原子力発電所の発電量計画・資本投資の予測などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 概要

  • 世界の商業原子力・原子力復興
  • 原子力発電の基礎
  • 歴史的展望
  • 核燃料サイクル
  • 原子力サプライチェーン
  • 米国・国際市場の破綻理由
  • 福島第一発電所の事故とその影響
  • 新NPPエコノミクス
  • 原子力発電の統計

第3章 次世代NPP技術

  • 大型第3世代/先進NPP
  • 小型原子炉技術
  • 第4世代原子炉設計

第4章 世界市場

  • 市場促進因子
  • 市場障壁
  • 使用済み燃料貯蔵・廃棄物処理

第5章 世界の原子力発電市場予測

  • 世界の原子力市場予測の基本
  • 発表済み計画に基づいた世界の原子力市場予測
  • 世界の原子力発電市場予測の確率的分析

第6章 主要企業

第7章 略語

図表リスト

目次

The nuclear power industry is beginning to receive serious attention once again with the promise of new reactor designs and a greater emphasis on nuclear as a long-term energy solution for governments globally. Unfortunately, the industry has a long history of overoptimism in terms of both the readiness of technology and its economics. Those parties interested in determining growth opportunities in the nuclear power business sector require a realistic appraisal of what is likely to emerge over the course of the next eight years.

This 189-page report answers several questions regarding commercial nuclear power:

  • Is the perceived resurgence of this industry plausible and if so, how much of a market does it constitute?
  • Are nuclear capacity addition forecasts accurate?
  • Are cost estimates for plant construction and operation reasonable?
  • How does the cost of electricity from these new designs compare with alternative sources of electricity?

Probable Range of Overnight Capital Expenditures 2012-2020, MW

SOURCE: GTM RESEARCH

This report also provides context to the business of nuclear power, insight as to why it declined in the 1980's and then remained dormant over much of the 1990's; what issues have been resolved since then and what barriers remain.

The objectives of the report are to equip the reader with realistic and objective insight into:

  • The nature of the nuclear power “renaissance” and whether or not it is a short-term or sustainable change in the industry
  • The Fukushima incident and its impact on several countries' nuclear power programs
  • Cost assessments and comparisons of nuclear technologies among themselves and other electricity generation sources
  • A forecast of new nuclear plant capacity plans and capital investment
  • Scenario-based forecasts of nuclear capacity and investment
  • Probabilistic forecasts of capacity and capital

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. Research Objectives
  • 1.2. Scope
  • 1.3. Information Sources and Methodology
  • 1.4. Observations and Findings

2. OVERVIEW

  • 2.1. Global Commercial Nuclear Power and the Nuclear Renaissance
  • 2.2. Nuclear Power Generation Basics
    • 2.2.1. Light Water Reactors
      • 2.2.1.1. Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
      • 2.2.1.2. Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)
      • 2.2.1.3. Light Water Graphite Moderated Reactor
    • 2.2.2. Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR or CANDU)
    • 2.2.3. Gas Cooled Reactor (GCR), Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR), Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR)
    • 2.2.4. Fast Neutron Reactors
  • 2.3. Historical Perspective
  • 2.4. Nuclear Fuel Cycle
  • 2.5. Nuclear Supply Chain
  • 2.6. Reasons for Collapse of U.S. and International Markets
    • 2.6.1. High Electricity Cost
    • 2.6.2. Regulatory Risk and Utility System Planning
    • 2.6.3. Proliferation of Designs and The Nuclear Regulatory Review Process
    • 2.6.4. Public Perception
  • 2.7. The Fukushima Daichi Incident and Its Impact
    • 2.7.1. The Incident
    • 2.7.2. Environmental Effects
    • 2.7.3. National Responses to Fukushima
      • 2.7.3.1. Japan
      • 2.7.3.2. Europe
      • 2.7.3.3. China
      • 2.7.3.4. U.S.
      • 2.7.3.5. Unaffected Programs
  • 2.8. New NPP Economics
  • 2.9. Nuclear Generation Statistics
    • 2.9.1. Currently Operating NPPs by Country and Technology
    • 2.9.2. Gross Electricity Generation and Nuclear Generation by Country in 2012, Ranked by Percentage Nuclear, GWh
    • 2.9.3. Share of Nuclear Electricity Generation by Region In 2011, Ranked by Percentage
    • 2.9.4. Distribution of Operating Reactor Types by Region (as of 6/2012)
    • 2.9.5. Distribution of Operating Reactor Types by Country (as of 6/2012)

3. NEXT GENERATION NPP TECHNOLOGIES

  • 3.1. Large 3rd Generation/Advanced Npp
  • 3.2. Small Modular Reactor Technologies
    • 3.2.1. Small LWR
    • 3.2.2. Small HTGR
    • 3.2.3. Small Liquid Metal-Cooled and Fast Neutron Reactors
  • 3.3. Fourth Generation Reactor Designs

4. GLOBAL MARKETS

  • 4.1. Market Drivers
    • 4.1.1. Global Electricity Supply and Demand
      • 4.1.1.1. Electricity Demand Forecasts
      • 4.1.1.2. Demand Scenarios
      • 4.1.1.3. Electricity Generation Supplies
    • 4.1.2. Energy Independence and Security
    • 4.1.3. Regulatory/Government Incentives
    • 4.1.4. Uranium Fuel Resource Availability
    • 4.1.5. Environmental Benefits and Carbon Mitigation
    • 4.1.6. Low Cost Solution
    • 4.1.7. National and Local Risk Appetite
  • 4.2. Market Barriers
    • 4.2.1. Financial Risk
    • 4.2.2. Regulatory Risk
    • 4.2.3. Public Opposition
    • 4.2.4. Transmission Grid Impacts
    • 4.2.5. Decommissioning Costs
  • 4.2.6. Spent Fuel Storage and Waste Disposal

5. GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER MARKET FORECAST 2013-2020

  • 5.1. Global Nuclear Power Market Forecasts Basis
  • 5.2. Global Nuclear Power Market Forecasts Based on Announced Plans
    • 5.2.1. National Forecasts by Country
      • 5.2.1.1. Argentina
      • 5.2.1.2. Armenia
      • 5.2.1.3. Brazil
      • 5.2.1.4. China
      • 5.2.1.5. Czech Republic
      • 5.2.1.6. Finland
      • 5.2.1.7. France
      • 5.2.1.8. India
      • 5.2.1.9. Iran
      • 5.2.1.10. Japan
      • 5.2.1.11. Pakistan
      • 5.2.1.12. Russia
      • 5.2.1.13. Slovakia
      • 5.2.1.14. South Korea
      • 5.2.1.15. Taiwan
      • 5.2.1.16. Turkey
      • 5.2.1.17. U.A.E.
      • 5.2.1.18. U.K.
      • 5.2.1.19. Ukraine
      • 5.2.1.20. U.S.
    • 5.2.2. Global Capacity Additions Forecast by Country
    • 5.2.3. Global Overnight Capital Expenditures by Country
    • 5.2.4. Global Capital Expenditures Based On Simulated Construction Schedules, by Country
    • 5.2.5. Capacity Additions
    • 5.2.6. Overnight Capital Expenditures
    • 5.2.7. Capital Expenditures Based on Simulated Construction Schedules
  • 5.3. Probabilistic Analysis of Global Nuclear Power Plant Market
    • 5.3.1. Capacity Additions
    • 5.3.2. Overnight Capital Expenditures
    • 5.3.3. Capital Investment Forecast Using Simulated Construction Schedules

6. KEY PARTICIPANTS

  • 6.1. Areva
  • 6.2. Atmea
  • 6.3. Atomic Energy of Canada
  • 6.4. Babcock & Wilcox Nuclear Operations Group
  • 6.5. Cameco Corporation
  • 6.6. CB&I (Acquired The Shaw Group Inc.)
  • 6.7. China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group
  • 6.8. China National Nuclear Corporation
  • 6.9. Electricite De France S.A.
  • 6.10. Gen 4 Energy (formerly Hyperion Power Generation)
  • 6.11. GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy
  • 6.12. General Atomics
  • 6.13. Generation MPower LLC
  • 6.14. Holtec International, Inc
  • 6.15. IHI Corporation
  • 6.16. Korea Electric Power Corporation
  • 6.17. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
  • 6.18. NuScale Power
  • 6.19. Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Ltd.
  • 6.20. Russian State Nuclear Organizations
    • 6.20.1. Rosatom
    • 6.20.2. Atomenergoprom
  • 6.21. Toshiba
  • 6.22. URENCO
  • 6.23. Westinghouse Electric Company LLC
  • 6.24. Key Firms No Longer Participating

7. ABBREVIATIONS

COMPANIES ANALYZED INCLUDE:

  • AREVA
  • ATMEA
  • Atomenergoprom
  • Atomic Energy of Canada
  • Babcock & Wilcox
  • British Nuclear Fuels
  • Cameco Corporation
  • CB&I (The Shaw Group)
  • China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group
  • China National Nuclear Corporation
  • EDF
  • Framatome
  • Gen4 Energy (Hyperion Power)
  • GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy
  • General Atomics
  • Generation mPower
  • Holtec International
  • IHI Corporation
  • KEPCO
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
  • NuScale Power
  • Pebble Bed Modular Reactor
  • Rosatom
  • RWE AG
  • Siemens
  • Toshiba
  • URENCO
  • Westinghouse

LIST OF TABLES

  • Global Cumulative NPP Capacity Additions, 2012 - 2020, MWe
  • Global Cumulative NPP Capital Investments, Overnight Costs, 2012 - 2020, $ millions
  • Global Cumulative NPP Capital Investments under three scenarios, Overnight Costs, 2012 - 2020, $ millions
  • Safety Related and Higher Than Normal Quality Component Requirements
  • Major NPP Component Ordering Lead Times and Countries of Origin
  • Hypothetical Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh), Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclea
  • U.S. NPP Purchases by Third Parties Since 1998
  • Actual and Estimated Total Costs of U.S. NPPs in Operation in 1986, $/kW
  • Diversity of U.S. Reactor Designs, 1965 - 1975
  • Licensing Backlogs, U.S. NPPs
  • China Nuclear Plants with Suspended Actions Until 2015
  • Current NPP Status, DOE Nuclear Power 2010 Program
  • Overnight Cost Forecast, Nuclear Plants 201 - 2020, $/kWh
  • Probabilistic Ranges of Levelized Cost of Electricity (life time) for Advanced PWR and SMR, $/MWh
  • List of Currently Operating NPPs By Country and Technology
  • Gross Electricity Generation and Nuclear Generation by Country in 2012, Ranked by Percentage Nuclear, GWh
  • Nuclear Electricity Generation by Region in 2011, Ranked by %
  • Distribution of Operating Reactor Types by Region (As of 6/2012)
  • Distribution of Operating Reactor Types by Country (As of 6/2012)
  • Evolution of NPP Design Generations
  • Advanced Large Scale (3rd Generation) Reactor Technology Characteristics
  • SMRs In Operation or Under Construction
  • Small Modular Light Water Reactor Technology Characteristics
  • Small Modular High Temperature Gas Reactor Technology Characteristics
  • Small Modular Fast Neutron Reactor Technology Characteristics
  • Generation 4 Reactor Designs and Characteristics
  • Country Assignments GIF Technologies
  • EIA and IAEA Global Electricity Demand Forecasts, 2012 - 2020, Thousands of GWh
  • Electricity Demand and Electricity Supply Deficit Forecasts by Region through 2020, Thousands GWh
  • Top Three Countries by Region with Greatest Forecasted Supply Deficit Assuming No New Generation above 2012, GWh
  • Electricity Generation Sources by World Region, 2011, Thousands GWh
  • Three Forecasts of World Nuclear Capacity Additions by Region, 2012 - 2020, GW
  • Subsidies and Incentives to Nuclear Power
  • Global Uranium Proven Reserves Distribution by Country as of 2009
  • Global Uranium Production by Country, 2009
  • Emissions Profile, Large Electricity Generating Stations 2009
  • IAEA Life Cycle Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Generation
  • Summary Statistics of Qualified Nuclear Life Cycle Emission Studies
  • Cost of Electricity Generation by Technology
  • Recent Unit Cost Estimate Evolution, 2007 - 2012
  • Recent Ratings Changes of Unregulated Utilities and Utilities with Nuclear Plants Under Construction
  • Decommissioning Cost Experience
  • Three Decommissioning End State Objectives
  • Decommissioning Requirements EU Countries
  • EU Types of Decommissioning Chosen, by Country
  • EU Estimate of Decommissioning Expenses, Current Reactor Fleet, Millions USD
  • Comparison of NRC and Site-Specific Formula Estimates for Decommissioning Costs at 12 Operating NPPs
  • Spent Fuel And Nuclear Waste Repository Status, Selected Countries
  • Cost Estimates Compared with Actual Costs 1966-1977, $/kW
  • Cost Estimate Revisions 2002-2012, $/kW
  • Argentina Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Armenia Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Brazil Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • China Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Czech Republic Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Finland Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • France Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • India Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Iran Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Japan Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Pakistan Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Russia Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Slovakia Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • South Korea Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Taiwan Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Turkey Nuclear Generation Plant Constructionand Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • UAE Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • UK Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Ukraine Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • U.S.A Nuclear Generation Plant Construction and Operation, 2012 - 2020
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Annual Capacity Additions through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, MW
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Cumulative Capacity Additions through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, MW
  • Global Nuclear Power Annual and Cumulative Capacity Additions, MW
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Plant Annual Capital Expenditures (Overnight Cost) through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, $ millions
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Plant Cumulative Capital Expenditures (Overnight Cost) through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, $ millions
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Plant Capital Expenditures (Overnight Costs) 2012 - 2020, millions of dollars
  • Annual Capital Nuclear Plant Expenditures using Simulated Construction Schedules by Country, 2012 - 2020, millions of dollars
  • Cumulative Capital Nuclear Plant Expenditures using Simulated Construction Schedules by Country, 2012 - 2020, millions of dollars
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Plant Capital Expenditures using Simulated Construction Schedules 2012 - 2020, millions of dollars
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capacity Additions using Scenarios, MW
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capacity Additions, MW
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures (Overnight Costs), $ millions
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures (Overnight Costs), $ millions
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures Based on Simulated Construction Schedule, $ millions
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures Based on Simulated Construction Schedule, $ millions
  • CNNP NNP Operating and Under Construction
  • Organizational Structure Russian State Corporations and Joint Stock Corporations

LIST OF FIGURES

  • Probable Range of Cumulative Capacity Additions 2012 - 2020, MW
  • Probable Range of Overnight Capital Expenditures 2012 - 2020, MW
  • Annual Capacity of NPPs Entering Commercial Operation, 1967 - 2012 (GW)
  • Nuclear Power Plant Schematic
  • Nuclear Chain Reaction
  • Schematic of a Boiling Water Reactor
  • Light Water Graphite Moderated Reactor Schematic
  • Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) Schematic
  • Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Schematic
  • Fast Breeder Reactor Schematic
  • LWR Nuclear Fuel Cycle without Reprocessing
  • Nuclear Fuel Cycle with Reprocessing
  • Global NPPs Under Construction, 1960 - 2012, GW
  • U.S. Annual NPP Orders, 1960 - 2000
  • U.S. Operating Costs, Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas and Petroleum, 1995 - 2011, c/kWh
  • Hypothetical Levelized Cost of Energy (c/kWh), Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear
  • U.S. NPP Sales Prices as Percentage of Original Installed Cost
  • Actual and Estimated Total Costs of U.S. NPPs in Operation in 1986, $/kW
  • U.S. Public Attitudes About Nuclear Power, 1975 - 1985
  • Probabilistic Ranges of Levelized Cost of Electricity (life time) for Advanced PWR and SMR, $/MWh
  • Evolution of NPP Design Generations
  • EIA and IEA Global Electricity Demand Forecasts, 2012-2020, GWh
  • Regional EIA and IEAE Global Forecasts, 2012-2020, GWh
  • Global Electricity Demand Growth Scenarios, 2012-2020, GWh
  • Multiple of 2012 Electricity Generation Necessary to Meet Demand by Region, 2012 - 2020
  • Global Uranium Supply and Demand under Low and High Scenarios, 2012 - 2020, tonnes U
  • Fixed and Variable Levelized Costs of Electricity, Various Generation Technologies, $/MWh
  • Public Approval of Nuclear Power, 1977 - 2006
  • Gallup Poll on Nuclear Power Favorability In U.S., 1994 - 2012
  • Utility Market Cap for Several Large US Utilities Compared with One and Two Unit Costs
  • Levelized Cost of Electricity under Differing Capital and Fuel Cost Assumptions, Coal, Natural Gas, and Nuclear Plants
  • Realized Plant Construction Outcomes in Years
  • Global NPP Age Profile
  • Cumulative Global NPPs Eligible for Decommissioning, 40 Year and 60 Year Operating Lives
  • U.S. Cumulative Metric Tons of Stored Nuclear Fuel, 2012-2020
  • Nuclear Power Capacity Forecasts, 1972 - 1985, GWe
  • Nuclear Power Capacity Forecasts, 1995 - 2000, GWe
  • Nuclear Power Capacity Forecasts, 2003 - 2012, GWe
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Cumulative Capacity Additions through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, MW
  • Commercial Nuclear Power Cumulative Capital Expenditures (Overnight Cost) through 2020 Based on Announced Plans, by Country, MW
  • Cumulative Nuclear Plant Capital Expenditures using Simulated Construction Schedule by Country, 2012 - 2020, millions of dollars
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capacity Additions using Scenarios, MW
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capacity Additions using Scenarios, MW
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures (Overnight Costs), $ millions
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures (Overnight Costs), $ millions
  • Global Annual Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures Based on Simulated Construction Schedule, $ millions
  • Global Cumulative Nuclear Power Capital Expenditures Based on Simulated Construction Schedule, $ millions
  • Probable Range of Cumulative Capacity Additions 2012 - 2020, MW
  • Probable Range of Overnight Capital Expenditures 2012 - 2020, MW
  • Probable Range of Capital Investments Based on Simulated Construction Schedule
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