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世界のPV(太陽光発電)モジュールメーカー:競合ポジショニング・整理統合・中国の要因

Global PV Module Manufacturers 2013: Competitive Positioning, Consolidation and the China Factor

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 252995
出版日 ページ情報 英文 67 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界のPV(太陽光発電)モジュールメーカー:競合ポジショニング・整理統合・中国の要因 Global PV Module Manufacturers 2013: Competitive Positioning, Consolidation and the China Factor
出版日: 2012年10月15日 ページ情報: 英文 67 Pages
概要

数年にわたる利益・強い成長が継続した後、PV(太陽光発電)モジュール製造市場は、長引く低迷の真っ只中にいます。2010年と2011年における非常に強引な容量の増加は、主要なFIT(固定価格買取制度)市場における補助金の大幅な削減と相まって、2011年のはじめに大きな需給の不均衡をもたらしました。

当レポートでは、世界のPV(太陽光発電)モジュールメーカーに関する詳細なデータを提供しており、 企業の競合ポジショニング、モジュールサプライヤーの整理統合情勢、リスク要因の分析などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 PV(太陽光発電)モジュール製造市場

  • モジュールサプライヤーの分類
    • 中国企業
    • 日本企業
    • その他アジアの企業
    • 欧州企業
    • 米国企業
  • バリューチェーン参加企業

第3章 競合ポジショニング

  • 競合ポジショニングのメトリクス
  • 競合ポジショニングのマトリクス
  • 競合ポジショニング評価

第4章 モジュールサプライヤーの整理統合

  • 最新の整理統合力学
  • 中国の要因

第5章 整理統合の力学:予測

  • 高コストの位置にいるほとんどの企業は来年末までに市場から撤退する予定
  • 薄膜分野の請負メーカーは今後10社以下となる見込み
  • 苦境に立つ専業の中国企業は国内の金融機関から追加の融資を受ける見込み
  • 中国の大手企業は欧州のモジュール企業の買収を続ける
  • 専業の中国企業は、多角的または国営の中国企業に買収される可能性
  • 小規模の中国企業は撤退が可能か?
  • 非中国企業は、積極的な製品またはビジネスモデルの差別化無しに市場撤退を余儀なくされる
  • 整理統合マトリクス

第6章 リスク要因

  • 中国市場はどこまで大きくなれるのか?
  • その他の市場は予測より早く成長できるのか?
  • もし欧州における反ダンピング課税が中国メーカーに課されたらどうなるか?

図表リスト

目次

After several years of sustained profits and strong (if not always stable) growth, the PV manufacturing sector has found itself in the midst of a protracted downturn. A combination of overly-aggressive capacity build-up in 2010 and 2011, along with severely curtailed subsidies in major feed-in tariff markets have resulted in a massive supply-demand imbalance that manifested itself in early 2011, and is not expected to abate until at least 2014.

RAMPED MODULE CAPACITY VS. GLOBAL INSTALLATIONS, 2008-2014E

SOURCE: GTM RESEARCH - GLOBAL PV MODULE MANUFACTURERS 2013

Consequently, inventories have remained high and gross profit margins for PV module suppliers have nosedived, from peaks of 30%-plus in late 2010, when supply outpaced demand, to low-single digits as of mid-2012 for even the lowest-cost producers. The growing commoditization of modules - that is, the perception in the minds of buyers that quality and reliability do not differ significantly from one producer to another - has not helped matters, either.

The twin malaises of rampant overcapacity and commoditization have combined to result in a slew of plant closures, market exits and insolvencies over the past year and a half. However, the victims thus far have mostly been smaller producers in high-cost regions, and this has done very little to alleviate the industry's troubles. With overcapacity likely to persist through much of 2013 and the balance sheets of most producers under severe stress, there is very little doubt that much more consolidation is on the way, and that the global PV module landscape is headed for a significant transformation.

This 67-page report contains the most competitive intelligence and primary data on solar PV module manufacturers for energy-industry professionals.

MANUFACTURERS ANALYZED IN REPORT

    CHINA

  • Canadian Solar
  • China Sunergy
  • Jinko Solar
  • Suntech Power
  • Trina Solar
  • Yingli Green Energy
  • Eging PV
  • ET Solar
  • Hareon Solar
  • JA Solar
  • LDK Solar
  • Light Way Green New Energy
  • Renesola
  • DuPont Apollo
  • ENN Solar
  • QS Solar
  • Hanergy
  • Hanwha-SolarOne
  • Tianwei New Energy
  • Talesun
  • Phono Solar
  • Aide Solar
  • Alex Solar
  • BYD
  • Chint Group (Astronergy)

    JAPAN

  • MSK (Suntech Power)
  • Choshu Industry
  • Itogumi Motech
  • Sharp
  • Kyocera
  • Mitsubishi Electric
  • Panasonic/Sanyo
  • Kaneka
  • Solar Frontier
  • REST OF ASIA
  • Motech
  • Neo Solar
  • Tainergy
  • SolarPark
  • Solar Semiconductor
  • Shinsung Holdings
  • DelSolar
  • AU Optronics
  • NexPower (UMC)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor
  • Hyundai Heavy Industries
  • Samsung
  • LG
  • Moser Baer

    EUROPE

  • REC
  • SolarWorld Europe
  • Isofoton
  • Sovello
  • Solarwatt
  • Solaria Energia
  • Solar-Fabrik
  • Centrosolar
  • MX Solar
  • Siliken
  • Aleo Solar
  • Scheuten Solar (Aiko Solar)
  • Solibro (Hanergy)
  • Sunways
  • Q-Cells (Hanwha)
  • Solon (Microsol)
  • Bosch Solar (Bosch)
  • Photowatt (EDF)
  • Avancis (Saint-Gobain)
  • 3Sun (Sharp/EnelST)
  • U.S.
  • SunPower
  • First Solar
  • MiaSole
  • Nanosolar
  • Stion
  • Suniva
  • Advanced Solar Photonics
  • Helios USA
  • Mage Solar
  • Motech U.S.A.
  • SolarWorld USA

SAMPLE FIGURES

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING MATRIX, U.S. FIRMS

SOURCE: GTM RESEARCH - GLOBAL PV MODULE MANUFACTURERS 2013

CHINA PV MODULE SUPPLIER TAXONOMY

SOURCE: GTM RESEARCH - GLOBAL PV MODULE MANUFACTURERS 2013

REPORT AUTHOR

Shyam Mehta, Senior Solar Analyst.

Shyam Mehta is a Senior Analyst at GTM Research, focusing on global solar markets. Before joining GTM Research, Shyam was a Financial Analyst at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research where he covered equities in the alternative energy sector, primarily solar companies. Prior to Goldman, Shyam was a Research Analyst at The Brattle Group, an economic consulting firm, where his work focused on problems within the electricity industry. Shyam received his Bachelor's in Mathematics from U.C. Berkeley.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. Current Industry Environment
  • 1.2. Report Scope

2. THE PV MODULE MANUFACTURING SPACE

  • 2.1. Module Supplier Taxonomy
    • 2.1.1. Chinese Firms
    • 2.1.2. Japanese Firms
    • 2.1.3. Rest of Asia Firms
    • 2.1.4. European Firms
    • 2.1.5. U.S. Firms
  • 2.2. Value Chain Participation

3. COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • 3.1. Competitive Positioning Metrics
  • 3.2. The Competitive Positioning Matrix
  • 3.3. Competitive Positioning Assessment
    • 3.3.1. Chinese Pure-Play Solar Firms
    • 3.3.2. Diversified Chinese Firms
    • 3.3.3. Japanese Firms
    • 3.3.4. Rest of Asia Firms
    • 3.3.5. European Firms
    • 3.3.6. U.S. Firms

4. MODULE SUPPLIER CONSOLIDATION IN 2011-2012

  • 4.1. Recent Consolidation Dynamics
  • 4.2. The China Factor

5. CONSOLIDATION DYNAMICS IN 2013-2014

  • 5.1. Most Firms in High-Cost Locations to Exit Market by YE 2013
  • 5.2. Thin Film Space to Contract to Less Than 10 Active Manufacturers by 2015
  • 5.3. Aggressive Downstream Build-Out in China Will Prop Up Select Domestic Suppliers
  • 5.4. Select Struggling Pure-Play Chinese Firms Will Receive Additional Debt From Domestic Lenders
  • 5.5. Large Chinese Firms Will Continue to Acquire European Module Companies
  • 5.6. Select Pure-Play Chinese Firms Could Be Acquired by Diversified or State-Owned Chinese Firms
  • 5.7. Will Smaller Chinese Firms Be Allowed to Exit?
  • 5.8. Non-Chinese Firms Will Be Forced to Exit Market Without Aggressive Product or Business Model Differentiation
  • 5.9. Consolidation Matrix

6. RISK FACTORS

  • 6.1. How Large Could the Chinese Market Be?
  • 6.2. Could Other Markets Ramp Up Faster Than Predicted?
  • 6.3. What If Anti-Dumping Tariffs in Europe Are Imposed on Chinese Manufacturers?

LIST OF FIGURES

1. INTRODUCTION

  • Ramped Module Capacity vs. Global Installations, 2008-2014E
  • Gross Margins, Leading PV Module Suppliers, Q4 2010-Q2 2012
  • PV Module Insolvencies, Plant Closures and Market Exits, Q1 2011-Q3 2012

2. THE PV MODULE MANUFACTURING SPACE

  • China PV Module Supplier Taxonomy
  • Japan PV Module Supplier Taxonomy
  • Rest of Asia PV Module Supplier Taxonomy
  • European PV Module Supplier Taxonomy
  • U.S. PV Module Supplier Taxonomy
  • Module Capacity by Producer Type, YE2012E
  • PV Value Chain Participation of Existing PV Module Suppliers

3. COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Competitive Positioning Assessment of Solar Frontier, JA Solar, REC Solar
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, Global Module Supplier Landscape
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, Chinese Pure-Play Solar Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, Chinese Pure-Play Solar Firms, Q4 2012E
  • Net Debt, Chinese Module Suppliers, Q1 2012
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, Diversified Chinese Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, Diversified Chinese Firms, Q4 2012E
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, Japanese Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, Japanese Firms, Q4 2012E
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, Rest of Asia Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, Rest of Asia Firms, Q4 2012E
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, European Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, European Firms, Q4 2012E
  • Quick Ratio, European Module Producers, Q2 2012
  • Competitive Positioning Matrix, U.S. Firms
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, U.S. Firms, Q4 2012E

4. MODULE SUPPLIER CONSOLIDATION IN 2011-2012

  • PV Module Suppliers Experiencing Consolidation Dynamics, Q1 2011-Q3 2012
  • Consolidation Market Drivers by Firm
  • Relevant Factors of PV Module Supplier Consolidation, Q1 2011-Q3 2012 (N=24)
  • Ramped Module Capacity vs. Global Installations, 2008-2014E
  • Module/Project Development Contracts Awarded to Chinese Suppliers for Large Utility-Scale Projects in China

5. CONSOLIDATION DYNAMICS IN 2013-2014

  • Active Module Facilities in High-Cost Locations, 2008-2014E
  • Crystalline Si Firms in High-Cost Locations Likely to Exit Market in 2013-2014
  • Weighted Average Industry Thin Film All-In Module Cost Differential vs. Crystalline Silicon, 2009-2014E
  • Thin Film Plant Retirements, 2010-2014E
  • Global Year-End Thin Film Capacity, 2015E
  • Chinese Firms Likely to Receive Large Utility-Scale Contracts From State-Connected Entities
  • Chinese Module Firms Most Likely to Receive Additional Financial Support From Domestic Lenders
  • Potential Acquisition Candidates, European Module Suppliers and Developers
  • Potential Acquirers of European Module Firms
  • Potential Acquisition Candidates, Chinese Pure-Play Solar Firms
  • Chinese Module Manufacturing Capacity by Plant Size, YE2012
  • Supply-Demand Reconciliation, Chinese Manufacturers, 2013E
  • Possible Market Exits, Chinese Module Firms
  • Potential Business Model and Product Differentiation Strategies, Large Diversified Firms
  • Consolidation Matrix, Selected Module Suppliers
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