市場調査レポート

薄膜PV(2012年〜2016年):技術・市場・生き残るための戦略

Thin Film 2012 - 2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 226183
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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薄膜PV(2012年〜2016年):技術・市場・生き残るための戦略 Thin Film 2012 - 2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival
出版日: 2012年04月17日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

薄膜太陽電池の出荷高は、2004年の68メガワットから、2009年には2ギガワット、2011年には3.7ギガワットへと成長しました。2010年以降は安い結晶シリコンに押されて市場シェアを減少させるものの、今後も薄膜PVの需要は続く見込みです。

当レポートでは、薄膜太陽電池市場について調査し、生産コスト、技術、市場、アプリケーション、競合状況および生産量などについて分析しており、サプライヤーへの戦略、主要企業80社のプロファイルをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 PV技術

  • 結晶シリコン(c-Si)
  • 薄膜
    • テルル化カドミウム(CdTe)
    • 銅・インジウム・ガリウム・セレン化合物(CIS/CIGS)
    • 薄膜シリコン(TF Si)
    • 多接合型太陽電池
    • 直列接続/微結晶薄膜シリコン
  • 第3世代の薄膜
    • 色素増感型太陽電池(DSC)
    • 有機PV(OPV)
  • 薄膜の範囲

第3章 材料・生産

  • バッチ生産 vs. 連続生産
  • 薄膜PVのプロセスフロー
  • 基板の選定
  • 蒸着プロセス
  • モジュール統合
  • カプセル化
  • ガラスラミネート加工
  • 材料要件・検討
  • ガラス・透明導電膜(TCO)
  • ターンキー vs. 独自設備

第4章 薄膜の性能・技術特徴

  • 効率
  • モジュールの劣化
  • 感温性
  • スペクトル(光)感度
  • エネルギー収量・性能:BOS(周辺装置)ペナルティの調整
  • インバーターの互換性
  • エリアフットプリント
  • モジュールの重量

第5章 薄膜(2012年):抑圧された価格環境に制約された需要

  • 薄膜情勢の調査
  • 初期の痛手、迫り来る暴落の危機
  • プライスクリフ
  • 世界的なPV需要
  • 資金調達可能性の懸念が続く
  • 長期的な可能性・投資
  • 暴落から回復へ
  • CdTe
  • CIGS
  • 薄膜シリコン
  • 統合の様相

第6章 生産コスト・競合性

  • モジュールのコスト構造
  • Capex
  • 原料コスト
  • 寸法効果・労働コストの適用
  • ベースラインの実行
  • Capex効果
  • 効率性効果
  • 寸法効果
  • プロセス収率効果
  • アップタイム/利用効果
  • 地域効果
  • 薄膜情勢のモデリング
  • モジュール価格
  • コストのロードマップ
  • 粗利益
  • 薄膜の実費用
  • 求められるモジュールコスト・固定利益
  • メーカー特有のコスト
  • 決算

第7章 市場・アプリケーション

  • グリッド関連住宅
  • グリッド関連商用
  • グリッド関連ユーティリティ規模
  • オフグリッド・ニッチアプリケーション
  • 薄膜メーカーによる下流産業の統合

第8章 生産能力・生産量

  • 生産能力 vs. 生産量
  • 必要レベルを下げる
  • 生産能力予測

第9章 薄膜の需要

  • 過去の生産量・市場背や
  • 生産能力から生産量へ
  • 薄膜生産の定量化
  • 市場規模
  • 統合の様相

第10章 結論

第11章 企業プロファイル

図表

目次

Abstract

No other PV technology has seen as many false fits and starts, or held as much promise, as thin-film PV. During the height of the polysilicon bottleneck between 2004 and 2009, thin-film PV's prospects seemed unparalleled. Shipments of thin film grew from a paltry 68 MW in 2004 to 2 GW in 2009. By the end of 2009, thin film commanded 18% of the total market with no signs of slowing.

While thin-film shipments continued to grow to 3.7 GW in 2011, cheap crystalline silicon dominated the industry from 2010 onward. Market share of thin-film PV dropped to 11%. In 2011, crystalline silicon PV prices dropped by over 40% over the course of the year, undermining the value proposition of thin-film solar cells.

Yet, despite the crystalline pricing madness, the future of thin film has not necessarily disappeared. Venture capital investment into thin film in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 combined to reach nearly $300 million. Solar Frontier continues to ramp up its GW-scale CIGS facility. Tokyo Electron bought Oerlikon Solar for $275 million, affirming long-term faith in the thin-film silicon manufacturing space. With CdTe, GE continues to invest heavily in Primestar, and First Solar still intends to open new capacity in Vietnam and Mesa, Arizona.

image1

Certainly, the current supply-demand balance is in flux, but in the long term, the fundamental value proposition of thin-film solar - low-cost PV divorced from polysilicon at comparable efficiencies - remains steadfast, although the path to competitiveness has been accelerated.

At 250 pages, Thin Film 2012 - 2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival is the fourth edition of GTM Research's annual update on the thin film PV space. With detailed, accurate historical data, a granular examination of manufacturing costs, technology analysis, recommendations for supplier strategies, and competitive intelligence on the top 80 firms in the space, it is the most comprehensive, data-driven and objective assessment of the space available to date.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. The Eroding Value Proposition and Promise of Thin-Film PV
  • 1.2. A Brief History of Successful Thin Film Manufacturers
  • 1.3. Key Questions for the Thin Film Industry
  • 1.4. Report Structure

2. PV TECHNOLOGIES

  • 2.1. Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)
  • 2.2. Thin Films
    • 2.2.1. Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)
    • 2.2.2. Copper Indium (Gallium) Diselenide (CIS/CIGS)
    • 2.2.3. Thin Film Silicon (TF Si)
    • 2.2.4. Multi-Junction Cells
    • 2.2.5. Tandem-Junction/Microcrystalline Thin Film Silicon
  • 2.3. Third-Generation Thin Film
    • 2.3.1. Dye-Sensitized Cells (DSCs)
    • 2.3.2. Organic PV (OPV)
  • 2.4. Thin Film Coverage

3. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING

  • 3.1. Batch Versus Continuous Manufacturing
  • 3.2. Thin-Film PV Process Flow
  • 3.3. Substrate Selection
  • 3.4 . Deposition Processes
    • 3.4.1. CdTe
    • 3.4.2. CIGS
    • 3.4.3. Thin Film Silicon
  • 3.5. Module Integration
    • 3.5.1. Monolithic Integration
    • 3.5.2. Cell-Based Module Integration
  • 3.6. Encapsulation
  • 3.7. Glass Lamination
  • 3.8. Materials Requirements and Considerations
    • 3.8.1. CdTe
    • 3.8.2. CIS/CIGS
    • 3.8.3. Amorphous Si
    • 3.8.4. Commodity Materials
  • 3.9. Glass and Transparent Conductive Oxide (TCO)
    • 3.9.1. Transparent Conductive Oxide (TCO)
  • 3.10 . Turnkey Versus Proprietary Equipment
    • 3.10.1. Turnkey Manufacturing Providers

4. THIN FILM PERFORMANCE AND TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS

  • 4.1. Efficiency
    • 4.1.1. How Efficiency Matters
    • 4.1.2. Research Cell vs. Commercial Cell Efficiencies
    • 4.1.3. Commercial Cell vs. Module Efficiency
    • 4.1.4. Historical Module Efficiencies
    • 4.1.5. Projected Future Efficiency
    • 4.1.6. Limitations to Improvements
    • 4.1.7. Efficiency Effects on Total System Costs
  • 4.2. Module Degradation
  • 4.3. Sensitivity to Temperature
  • 4.4. Spectral (Light) Sensitivity
    • 4.4.1. Light Soaking
  • 4.5. Energy Yield and Performance- - Adjusted BOS Penalties
  • 4.6. Inverter Compatibility
  • 4.7. Area Footprint
  • 4.8. Module Weight

5. THIN FILM IN 2012: CONSTRAINED DEMAND IN A SUFFOCATING PRICE ENVIRONMENT

  • 5.1. Surveying the Thin Film Landscape
  • 5.2. Early Blows and the Imminent Shakeout
  • 5.3. The Pricing Cliff
    • 5.3.1. Crystalline Silicon Module Pricing Crashes
    • 5.3.2. Polysilicon Prices Continue to Fall
  • 5.4. Soft Global PV Demand
    • 5.4.1. Crawling Toward a Recovering Demand Market in 2013
  • 5.5. Bankability Concerns Continue to Haunt Thin Film
    • 5.5.1. An Imperfect Solution: Warranty Insurance
    • 5.5.2. Acquisitions by Large New Entrants
  • 5.6. Long-Term Potential and Investments
    • 5.6.1. American Manufacturers Continue Expansion Plans
  • 5.7. From Shakeout to Recovery: Survival of the Fit
    • 5.7.1. The Importance of Downstream Integration
    • 5.7.2. The Role of Emerging Regional Markets
    • 5.7.3. The (Non)-Emergence of BIPV
    • 5.7.4. Thin Film at Scale: Too Late?
  • 5.8. CdTe: The First Solar Juggernaut Meets Competition
    • 5.8.1. First Solar in 2011
    • 5.8.2. Abound Solar
    • 5.8.3. General Electric (Primestar)
    • 5.8.4. Other CdTe Companies
  • 5.9. CIGS: Death Before Life?
    • 5.9.1. Solar Frontier: The Coming of Second Solar?
    • 5.9.2. The Shakeout Starts
    • 5.9.3. VC-Funded Companies Looking to Cash Out
    • 5.9.4. The Experience of Turnkey Equipment Vendors
    • 5.9.5. Targeting New Markets
  • 5.10. Thin Film Silicon: Mixed Outlooks
    • 5.10.1. Turnkey Equipment Customers: A Distressed Market
    • 5.10.2. The Producer and Efficiency Landscape
  • 5.11. What Does Consolidation Look Like?

6. MANUFACTURING COSTS AND COMPETITIVENESS

  • 6.1. Module Cost Structure
  • 6.2. Capital Expenditure (Capex)
  • 6.3. Raw Material Costs
    • 6.3.1. CdTe Material Costs (Cadmium, Tellurium)
    • 6.3.2. CIGS Material Costs (Copper, Indium, Gallium, Selenium)
    • 6.3.3. Thin-Film Silicon Material Costs (Silane)
    • 6.3.4. Other Raw Materials
  • 6.4 .Applying Scale Effects and Labor Costs
  • 6.5. Implementing a Baseline
  • 6.6. Capex Effects
  • 6.7. Efficiency Effects
  • 6.8. Scale Effects
  • 6.9. Process Yield Effects
  • 6.10. Uptime/Utilization Effects
  • 6.11. Regional Effects
  • 6.12. Modeling the Thin Film Landscape
    • 6.12.1. Surveying the Cost Landscape
  • 6.13. Module Prices
  • 6.14. Cost Roadmaps
  • 6.15. Gross Margins
  • 6.16. Actual Thin Film Costs (Less Than Full Utilization)
  • 6.17. Required Module Costs at Fixed Margins
  • 6.18. Manufacturer-Specific Costs
    • 6.18.1. The Troubled Titan: First Solar
    • 6.18.2. Imitation is the Best Form of Flattery: Abound and Primestar
    • 6.18.3. Pioneering Gigawatt-Scale CIGS: Solar Frontier
    • 6.18.4. On the Cusp of Greatness? (MiaSole, TSMC)
  • 6.19. The Closing Window (Nanosolar, HelioVolt, Solibro, Avancis)
    • 6.19.1. Can Flexible Play in the Market?
    • 6.19.2. Tokyo Electron's Prospects: Smart or Swindled?
    • 6.19.3. The Tenuous Top: Sharp Solar
    • 6.19.4. The Other Turnkey Players: Apollo and ULVAC

7. MARKETS AND APPLICATIONS

  • 7.1. Grid-Tied Residential
  • 7.2. Grid-Tied Commercial
  • 7.3. Grid-Tied Utility-Scale
  • 7.4. Off-Grid and Niche Applications
  • 7.5. Downstream Integration by Thin Film Manufacturers

8. MANUFACTURING CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION

  • 8.1. Capacity vs. Production
  • 8.2. The Need to Derate
  • 8.3. Capacity Projections
    • 8.3.1. By Technology
    • 8.3.2. By Region
    • 8.3.3. Top Manufacturers

9. THIN FILM DEMAND

  • 9.1. Historical Production and Market Share
  • 9.2. From Capacity to Production: The Need to Derate
    • 9.2.1. Thin Film Capacity: A Tenuous Notion
    • 9.2.2. Exogenous Factors: Market Conditions, Product Value
  • 9.3. Quantifying Thin Film Production: From the Bottom Up
  • 9.4. Market Sizing
  • 9.5. What Consolidation Looks Like

10. CONCLUSIONS

  • 10.1. Answering the Questions That Matter
    • 10.1.1. What happened to thin film's prospects?
    • 10.1.2. Does thin film's value proposition still hold true?
    • 10.1.3. What will be the size of the thin film market?
    • 10.1.4. Which technologies will win out in thin film?
    • 10.1.5. What does consolidation look like in the thin film sector?
    • 10.1.6. Who is best positioned to survive the solar shakeout?
    • 10.1.7. What must thin film players do to stay competitive in the PV market?
  • 10.2. Shaky Times, Bold Calls
  • 10.3. Thin Film Prospects: Caveat Emptor

11. PROFILES

  • 3Sun
  • Abound Solar
  • Applied Quantum Technology (AQT)
  • Ascent Solar
  • Astronergy
  • Avancis
  • AxunTek Solar Energy
  • Calyxo GmbH
  • Dow Solar
  • ENN Solar
  • First Solar
  • Global Solar
  • GS Solar
  • Hanergy
  • Heliosphera
  • Hevel Solar
  • Hunan Gongchuang
  • Inventux Technologies AG
  • Kaneka Solartech Co., Ltd.
  • Masdar
  • MiaSole
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
  • Moser Baer
  • Nanosolar
  • NexPower Technology
  • Nuvosun
  • Odersun
  • GE (Primestar)
  • Sharp
  • Solar Frontier
  • Solarion
  • Solibro GmbH
  • SoloPower
  • Soltecture (Sulfurcell)
  • Stion
  • Tianwei SolarFilms Co
  • Trony Solar
  • TSMC
  • T-Solar
  • United Solar
  • WK Solar
  • Xunlight

LIST OF FIGURES

1. INTRODUCTION

  • Venture Capital Investment Into Thin-Film PV Through 2009
  • Historical Thin-Film PV Production, 2002 - 2011
  • Thin Film Market Growth Versus Polysilicon Spot Pricing (2003 - 2011)
  • Thin-Film PV Market Value, Base Forecast, 2010 - 2016E
  • Timeline of Solar Frontier Research and Production

2. PV TECHNOLOGIES

  • Crystalline Silicon Value Chain
  • Thin-Film PV Manufacturing Process
  • Comparison Between Thin-Film and Traditional Crystalline Silicon PV
  • CdTe Cell and Module
  • CIGS Cell Structure
  • Single-Junction Amorphous Silicon Cell Structure
  • Multi-Junction Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) Cell Structure
  • Multi-Junction Cell With Gallium Indium Phosphide Top Cell, Tunnel Junction, Gallium Arsenide Bottom Cell
  • Tandem-Junction Cell
  • Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell
  • Organic PV Cell Structure

3. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING

  • Batch vs. Continuous (Inline) Production
  • Tandem-Junction Amorphous Si Process Flow
  • Simplified Process Flow for Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing of CIGS on Flexible Substrate
  • Roll-to-Roll Thin Film Manufacturing Substrate and Equipment
  • Summary of Thin-Film PV Substrate Materials
  • Substrate Utilization by Technology
  • Closed-Space Sublimation Process Used for CdTe
  • Deposition Process and Substrate Utilized by Commercial CIGS Manufacturers
  • Sputtering Deposition
  • Sputtering / Selenization Deposition Process Flow
  • CIGS Co-Evaporation Process
  • Electroplating Deposition Process
  • Nano-Particle Printing Using CIGS Ink
  • Ion Beam-Assisted Deposition
  • CVD Process
  • Monolithic Module Integration
  • Use of Encapsulants in Thin-Film PV
  • Rare Materials Used in Thin Film Manufacturing
  • Cadmium Prices, 2005 - 2012YTD
  • Tellurium Prices, 2004 - 2012 YTD
  • Projected Use of Tellurium in CdTe PV
  • Indium Prices, 2004 - 2012 YTD
  • Projected Use of Indium in CIS/CIGS PV
  • Thin-Film Silicon Cell Diagrams
  • Global Silane Forecast to 2020 (Production)
  • London Silver Prices, 2010 - 2011
  • Back Contact Use and Cost for Thin-Film Silicon (Silver vs. Aluminum)
  • Projected Use of Commodity Materials
  • Global Flat Glass Market by Sector
  • Appropriate Glass Type for Various PV Technologies
  • Framed Versus Frameless Module Diagrams
  • Production Capacity of Manufacturers Using Proprietary Versus Turnkey Equipment Lines
  • Estimated BOS Penalty Versus 14.5% Efficient Multi-c-Si Modules
  • List of Turnkey Manufacturing Providers

4. THIN FILM PERFORMANCE AND TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS

  • NREL Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
  • Historical Module and Record Cell Efficiencies Through 2011
  • Efficiency Forecasts for PV Technologies Through 2016
  • Theoretical Maximum Cell Efficiency by Technology Type
  • System Cost Assumptions for Calculating BOS Penalties
  • PV System Cost Breakdown and Associated Area-Related Costs
  • Estimated BOS Penalties Based on Efficiency
  • BOS Penalty for Modules at a Given Efficiency
  • Efficiency Forecasts for PV Technologies Through 2016
  • Empirical Annual Degradation Rates of Various PV Module Technologies
  • Module Degradation by Technology (Glass-Based Modules), Post Burn-In
  • Effect of Temperature on Effective Module Efficiency
  • Solar Spectrum
  • Spectral Sensitivity for Crystalline and Amorphous Silicon Cells
  • Thin-Film Solar Modules Can Be More Tolerant to Shade
  • Light Soaking Effect on Various PV Technologies
  • Comparison of Thin Film vs. Crystalline Silicon Performance for 88 Juwi Solar Projects
  • Performance of CIGS Versus Crystalline Silicon PV In-Field
  • First-Year Simulated Performance of PV Systems Utilizing Various PV Technologies
  • Performance-Adjusted Efficiency and BOS Penalties for Thin-Film PV Technologies
  • Performance- and Efficiency-Adjusted BOS Penalties for Three Regions Based on Simulations
  • Module Area Footprint by PV Technology (Based on Current Module Efficiencies)
  • PV Module Weight by Technology
  • CIGS Module Weight: Framed Module vs. Frameless Module

5. THIN FILM IN 2012: CONSTRAINED DEMAND IN A SUFFOCATING PRICE ENVIRONMENT

  • Estimated Thin-Film PV Production by Technology, 2011
  • Estimated Thin Film Production by Technology, 2009
  • Number of Thin Film Suppliers in First Year of Production by Year through 2012E
  • Leading Thin Film Producers, 2011
  • Leading Thin Film Producers, 2008
  • Thin-Film PV Capacity by Region, 2011
  • Global PV Capacity, Production, and Installations, 2007 - 2016E
  • Summary of Italian FIT for 2011 -2012
  • German PV Installations by Quarter Versus c-Si ASPs
  • Diagram of Solyndra Cylindrical Cell
  • 2011 c-Si ASPs by Quarter
  • Chronology of PV Polysilicon Price Dynamics, 2007 - 2010
  • Polysilicon Output vs. Demand, 2008 - 2016
  • Polysilicon Contract, Spot, and Cash Costs, 1998 - 2016E
  • Cost Breakdown of Vertically Integrated c-Si Producers, 2010 - 2015E
  • Rational, Performance-Adjusted Thin Film ASPs Based on c-Si Forecasts
  • Performance-Adjusted Thin Film ASPs Versus Industry Weighted Average Costs, 2011 - 2016E
  • Performance-Adjusted Thin Film ASPs Versus Industry Best Costs, 2011 - 2016E
  • Installed PV Capacity in China, 2010 - 2016E
  • U.S. PV Installations and Global Market Share, 2005 - 2016E
  • Global PV Installation Forecast by Region, 2010 - 2016E
  • Venture Capital Invested into Thin Film Manufacturers, 2007 - 2012 YTD
  • U.S. Thin-Film PV Manufacturing Forecast, 2010 - 2016E
  • First Solar Shipments: Captive Versus Non-Captive, Q1 2010 - Q4 2012E
  • Leading U.S. Utility Pipelines by Developer Through Q1 2012
  • Global PV Installations by Region, 2010 - 2016E
  • Emerging Markets Installations by Market Segment, 2009 - 2015E
  • Estimated PV System Costs for Multi-MW Ground-Mount Projects, T-Solar vs. Tier 1/2 Chinese c- Si
  • Thin Film Production Capacity by Companies With BIPV Products
  • Thin Film Facilities by Production Capacity, 2011
  • Thin-Film PV Capacity Expansion Plans
  • First Solar ASPs Versus Costs, Q4 2010 - Q4 2011
  • First Solar Systems Pipeline
  • Solar Frontier Efficiency Roadmap, 2010 - 2014
  • Venture Capital Investment Into Thin Film Manufacturing, 2007 - 2012 YTD
  • Venture Capital Investment Into Thin Film Manufacturing by Manufacturer
  • Turnkey CIGS Equipment Manufacturers and Key Customers
  • Efficiency Roadmap for Thin-Film Silicon
  • Manufacturing Capacity by Turnkey Equipment Provider, 2007 - 2012
  • Single-Junction a-Si Suppliers
  • Tandem-Junction a-Si/μSi Suppliers
  • Double- and Triple-Junction a-Si Suppliers

6. MANUFACTURING COSTS AND COMPETITIVENESS

  • GTM Research CIGS Cost Model
  • Granular Cost Model Breakdown: Absorber Layer
  • Summary of Capex for Various Thin Film Manufacturers
  • Chinese Multicrystalline Silicon PV: Cost Breakdown
  • First Solar: Oder Facility Cost Structure, 2012
  • CdTe Feedstock Image
  • CdTe Feedstock Costs
  • Breakdown of CdTe Absorber Layer Costs, 2012
  • Indium Sputtering Targets
  • CIGS Sputtering Targets Costs, 2011
  • Breakdown of CIGS Absorber Layer Composition
  • Breakdown of CIGS Absorber Layer Costs, 2012
  • Breakdown of Thin-Film Si Absorber Layer Costs, 2012
  • Thin Film Materials Costs, 2012
  • Scale Effect on Production Costs
  • Direct Employees Versus Thin Film Manufacturing Capacity
  • Reference CdTe Facility Cost Structure, 2012
  • Reference CIGS Facility Cost Structure, 2012
  • Reference Thin-Film Si Facility Cost Structure, 2012
  • Effect of Capex on Module Costs
  • Thin-Film Si Costs vs. Efficiency
  • CIGS Costs vs. Efficiency
  • CdTe Costs vs. Efficiency
  • Comparison of Efficiency Effect on Module Costs by Technology
  • Thin-Film Si Costs vs. Scale
  • CIGS Costs vs. Production Scale
  • CdTe Costs vs. Production Scale
  • Comparison of Scale Effect on Thin Film Costs by Technology
  • Thin-Film Si Costs vs. Process Yields
  • CIGS Costs vs. Process Yields
  • CdTe Costs vs. Process Yields
  • Comparison of Process Yield Effects on Thin Film Costs by Technology
  • Thin-Film Si Costs vs. Utilization
  • CIGS Costs vs. Utilization
  • CdTe Costs vs. Utilization
  • CIGS Costs By Facility Region
  • Thin-Film Si Costs By Facility Region
  • CdTe Costs By Facility Region
  • Breakdown of c-Si Shipping Costs by Sea From China to U.S.
  • GTM Research Thin Film Manufacturing Facility Cost Archetypes
  • Archetype and Manufacturer-Specific Efficiency Roadmaps
  • Archetype- and Manufacturer-Specific Process Yield Roadmaps
  • Archetype and Manufacturer-Specific Miscellaneous Modeling Parameters
  • Archetype and Manufacturer-Specific Efficiency Base Costs (No Labor Component or Scale Effects)
  • Archetype and Manufacturer-Specific Weighted Average Costs
  • Chinese c-Si Costs and ASPs, 2010 - 2016E
  • Efficiency Forecasts by PV Technology, 2011 - 2016E
  • Performance-Adjusted ASPs for Thin-Film PV by Technology
  • Performance-Adjusted Thin-Film PV ASPs Versus Weighted Average Costs by Technology
  • Performance-Adjusted Thin-Film PV ASPs Versus Best in-Market Costs by Technology
  • Average Gross Margins by PV Technology, Assuming Full Utilization
  • Best-in-Market Gross Margins by PV Technology, Assuming Full Utilization
  • Thin Film Cost Roadmap by Technology, 2010 - 2016E
  • Required Module Costs for First Solar, 2012
  • Required Module Costs for First Solar, 2013
  • Required Module Costs for Solar Frontier, 2012
  • Required Module Costs for Solar Frontier, 2013
  • Required Module Costs for Sharp Thin-Film Si, 2012
  • Required Module Costs for Sharp Thin-Film Si, 2016
  • Estimated Costs for First Solar's Malaysia Facility, 2010 - 2016E
  • Estimated Costs for First Solar's Vietnam Facility, 2010 - 2016E
  • First Solar Production Capacity Versus Production Guidance, 2012E
  • Estimated Costs for First Solar's Germany Facility at Full Versus Half Utilization
  • Estimated Costs for First Solar Germany Facility, 2010 - 2016E
  • Estimated Costs of Abound Solar, 2010 - 2016E
  • Abound Solar Cost Versus ASP Targets, 2010 - 2016E
  • Solar Frontier's Estimated Costs, 2010 - 2016E
  • Solar Frontier Versus First Solar Costs, 2010 - 2012E
  • MiaSole Estimated Costs, 2010 - 2016E
  • MiaSole's Estimated Costs at Various Utilizations, 2012
  • MiaSole's Estimated Costs at Various Utilizations, 2013
  • Stion's Estimated Costs at Full Utilization, 2010 - 2016E
  • TSMC Estimated Costs at Full Utilization, 2010 - 2016E
  • Nanosolar's Estimated Costs, 2010 - 2012E
  • Various CIGS Manufacturers' Estimated Costs, 2012E
  • Various CIGS Manufacturers' Estimated Costs at Scale, 2014E
  • SoloPower's Estimated Costs, 2012E - 2014E
  • Oerlikon Solar's Technical Specifications for Generation 2 ThinFab
  • Astronergy's Estimated Costs, 2012E
  • Oerlikon/TEL EU/NA/JP Estimated Costs, 2010 - 2016E
  • Sharp Solar's Estimated Costs at Various Scales, 2016E
  • NexPower's Estimated Costs, 2010-2016E
  • Hanergy's Estimated Costs, 2010-2016E

7. MARKETS AND APPLICATIONS

  • 5-kW Amorphous Silicon Residential Rooftop Installation, Germany
  • Thin Film Market Share in California CSI Residential Program, 2010 - 2011
  • PV Module Power Density, 2011 vs. 2016
  • Global PV Installations by Market Segment, 2009 - 2015E
  • Global PV Residential Installations, 2009 - 2015E
  • 900 kW Tandem-Junction Commercial Rooftop Installation, Japan
  • Global PV Commercial Installations, 2009 - 2015E
  • 21 MW CdTe Utility-Scale Project, Nevada
  • Utility PV-Targeted Product Lines
  • U.S. Utility Solar Projects in Operation by Technology
  • U.S. Contracted Utility Pipeline by Technology
  • 10-kW CIGS BIPV Facade
  • Rural Off-Grid PV System
  • CIGS-Based Portable Solar Charger
  • Feasibility of PV Technology Deployment by End-Application

8. MANUFACTURING CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION

  • Average Ramped Capacity by Technology, 2010 - 2016E
  • Average Ramped Thin-Film PV Production Capacity by Region, 2010 - 2016E
  • Top Thin-Film PV Producers by Average Ramped Capacity, 2010 - 2016E

9. THIN FILM DEMAND

  • Thin Film Production by Technology, 2002 - 2011
  • Thin Film Market Growth Versus Polysilicon Spot Pricing, 2003 - 2011
  • Capacity Utilization by Technology, 2010 - 2011
  • Required Components of Thin-Film Production/Demand Model
  • Thin Film Production by Technology, Base Forecast, 2010 - 2016E
  • Thin Film Production by Technology, Low Forecast, 2010 - 2016E
  • Thin Film Production by Technology, High Forecast, 2010 - 2016E
  • Top Ten Thin Film Producers, 2008
  • op Ten Thin Film Producers, 2011
  • Top Ten Thin Film Producers, 2012
  • Top Ten Thin Film Producers, 2014
  • Estimated Thin Film Production, 2010 - 2016E
  • Thin-Film Module Market Size, 2010 - 2016E ($ Million)
  • Thin-Film PV Market Value, 2010 - 2016E

10. CONCLUSIONS

  • Estimated Thin Film Production, 2010 - 2016E
  • Estimated Thin Film Market Value, 2010 - 2016E
  • Thin-Film PV Market Value, 2010 - 2016E
  • Top 10 Thin Film Companies by Production, 2014E
  • Historical and Forecasted Thin Film PV Production, 2002 - 2016E
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