市場調査レポート

PV技術およびコスト展望

PV Technology and Cost Outlook, 2013-2017

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 214833
出版日 ページ情報 英文 112 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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PV技術およびコスト展望 PV Technology and Cost Outlook, 2013-2017
出版日: 2013年06月18日 ページ情報: 英文 112 Pages
概要

世界のPV産業では、ここしばらく需要と供給がアンバランスな状態が続いています。供給は年間需要の200%の状態が続き、結晶シリコンモジュール価格は、この2年間で約20%下落しています。

当レポートは、世界の太陽光発電業界の動向について調査分析し、結晶シリコン(c-Si)PVウェハー、電池、モジュールおよび材料技術の最新動向をまとめ、世界のPVサプライチェーンにわたる主要技術・コスト動向に関する競合展望を提供しており、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 結晶シリコンPV技術

  • ポリシリコンの製造
  • インゴットの成長
  • ウェハーのスライス
  • 電池加工
  • モジュール用部品

第3章 電池・モジュール効率

  • 電池効率の調査
  • 商業電池vs.モジュール効率
  • 現在の商業効率レベル
    • 電池
    • モジュール
  • 商用効率の予測
  • CTM(電池−モジュール)ロス・エネルギー生産量
    • ロス
    • 生産量

第4章 シリコンのコスト

  • ポリシリコンの価格
  • シリコン活用・ポリシリコンコスト/ワットあたり

第5章 資産・プラント・装置コスト

  • 資本設備
  • 資産・プラントCapex

第6章 インゴット/ウェハー製造コスト

  • 技術指標
  • 消耗品の利用
  • 消耗品の価格
  • ユーティリティ
  • 労働集約度・コスト
  • インゴット/ウェハー加工コスト
  • 全ウェハーコスト

第7章 電池加工コスト

  • 技術指標
  • 消耗品の利用
  • 消耗品の価格
  • ユーティリティ消費
  • 労働集約度
  • 電池加工コスト

第8章 モジュール用部品コスト

  • 技術指標
  • 消耗品の利用・価格
  • ユーティリティ消費
  • 労働集約度

第9章 全モジュール製造コスト

  • 過去のデータポイント
  • コスト予測

第10章 感度・分散分析

  • ポリシリコン価格
  • 銀価格
  • 電池・モジュール効率
  • プラント規模
  • プラント利用
  • 境界事例

図表リスト

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目次

Abstract

The global PV industry's recent past has seen wafer, cell, and module suppliers at the mercy of an inhospitable supply-demand imbalance throughout the global market. With supply consistently 200% of demand annually, c-Si module prices have fallen approximately 70% in two years. One positive externality of this cutthroat pricing is that manufacturing costs have fallen in line with pricing declines. This is mostly because pricing for key inputs further up the value chain has also fallen as a result of overcapacity and consequent margin evaporation.

Back in 2009/10, industry roadmaps were targeting $1.00/W module costs as a medium-term goal. With best-in-class Chinese producers approaching costs of $0.50/W in 2013, yesterday's goals are no longer relevant today. However, as noted, the majority of cost reduction over the last two years has been driven by declines in consumables prices. This state of affairs has left both manufacturers and their customers with considerable uncertainty, and there is currently little consensus on what is a realistic goal for the module supply chain to set for itself over the next three to five years. It is in the context of this lack of clarity that this report was conceived.

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This 112-page report on the latest in c-Si PV wafer, cell, module, and materials technology is the most recent analysis from GTM Research's flagship supply-side practice, and aims to provide a competitive outlook on the leading technology and cost trends through 2017 across the global PV supply chain. The report explores existing and innovative technology advancements in ingot growth, wafer slicing, cell processing, and module assembly, as well as their impacts on efficiencies and manufacturing costs.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. Module Costs: The Road to 50 Cents a Watt and Beyond
  • 1.2. Report Scope
  • 1.3. Data Sources

2. CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV TECHNOLOGY

  • 2.1. Polysilicon Production
  • 2.2. Ingot Growth
    • 2.2.1. Multicrystalline Silicon
    • 2.2.2. Monocrystalline Silicon
    • 2.2.3. Cast Monocrystalline (Quasi-Mono)
    • 2.2.4. Continuous CZ Ingot Growth
  • 2.3. Wafer Slicing
    • 2.3.1. Diamond Wire
    • 2.3.2. Ion Implantation
    • 2.3.3. Other Thin Wafering Techniques
  • 2.4. Cell Processing
    • 2.4.1. Conventional Manufacturing Process
    • 2.4.2. Selective Emitter
    • 2.4.3. N-Type Cells
    • 2.4.4. Heterojunction Cells
    • 2.4.5. Back-Contact Cells
    • 2.4.6. Metal Wrap-Through (MWT) Cells
    • 2.4.7. Silver Reduction Techniques
  • 2.5. Module Assembly
    • 2.5.1. Frameless Modules

3. CELL AND MODULE EFFICIENCY

  • 3.1. Research Cell Efficiencies
  • 3.2. Commercial Cell vs. Module Efficiency
  • 3.3. Current Commercial Efficiency Levels
    • 3.3.1. Cells
    • 3.3.2. Modules
  • 3.4. Commercial Efficiency Forecasts
  • 3.5. Cell to Module (CTM) Losses and Energy Yield
    • 3.5.1. Losses
    • 3.5.2. Gains

4. SILICON COSTS

  • 4.1. Polysilicon Pricing
    • 4.1.1. Recent Pricing Dynamics
    • 4.1.2. Projected Prices
  • 4.2. Silicon Utilization and Polysilicon Cost per Watt

5. PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT COSTS

  • 5.1. Capital Equipment
  • 5.2. Property and Plant Capex

6. INGOT/WAFER FABRICATION COSTS

  • 6.1. Technology Parameters
  • 6.2. Consumables Usage
  • 6.3. Consumables Pricing
  • 6.4. Utilities
  • 6.5. Labor Intensity and Costs
  • 6.6. Ingot/Wafer Processing Costs
    • 6.6.1. By Cost Center
    • 6.6.2. Historical Data Points
    • 6.6.3. Cost Projections
  • 6.7. All-In Wafer Cost
    • 6.7.1. Technology Trends: Impact of Diamond Wire Sawing
    • 6.7.2. Cost Projections

7. CELL PROCESSING COSTS

  • 7.1. Technology Parameters
  • 7.2. Consumables Usage
  • 7.3. Consumables Pricing
  • 7.4. Utilities Consumption
  • 7.5. Labor Intensity
  • 7.6. Cell Processing Costs
    • 7.6.1. By Cost Center
    • 7.6.2. Historical Data Points
    • 7.6.3. Cost Projections

8. MODULE ASSEMBLY COSTS

  • 8.1. Technology Parameters
  • 8.2. Consumables Usage and Pricing
  • 8.3. Utilities Consumption
  • 8.4. Labor Intensity
    • 8.4.1. By Cost Center
    • 8.4.2. Historical Data Points
    • 8.4.3. Cost Projections

9. ALL-IN MODULE MANUFACTURING COSTS

  • 9.1. Historical Data Points
  • 9.2. Projected Costs

10. SENSITIVITY AND VARIANCE ANALYSIS

  • 10.1. Polysilicon Pricing
  • 10.2. Silver Pricing
  • 10.3. Cell and Module Efficiency
  • 10.4. Plant Scale
  • 10.5. Plant Utilization
  • 10.6. Boundary Cases

LIST OF FIGURES

1. INTRODUCTION

  • Available Capacity Versus Demand, PV Modules, 2007-2013E
  • Jinko Solar Module Cost vs. Blended ASP, Q4 2010-Q4 2012
  • Contribution of Key Drivers Toward Module Cost Reduction, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2010-Q4 2012
  • Module Manufacturing Cost Scenario Outcome Analysis Input Parameters (Base vs. Low vs. High Case)
  • Data Sources Consulted for Key Inputs

2. CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV TECHNOLOGY

  • Crystalline Silicon PV Value Chain
  • Multicrystalline Silicon Ingot Furnace Design
  • Monocrystalline Silicon Ingot Fabrication Process (Czochralski Process)
  • Cast/Quasi-Mono Ingot Formation
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Ingot Growth Technology Cost/Efficiency Comparison
  • Slurry-Based Wire Sawing
  • Diamond Wire Sawing
  • Ion Implantation-Based Wafer Fabrication
  • Cell Fabrication Process
  • Key Features of Selective Emitter Technology
  • Key Benefits of Selective Emitter Technology
  • Selective Emitter Formation Approaches
  • Heterojunction Cell Structure
  • Probable SunPower Cell Design
  • Canadian Solar Metal Wrap-Through ELPS Cell
  • Crystalline Silicon Module Assembly Process Flow
  • Typical Crystalline Silicon Module Structure
  • Market Segments Served by Frameless and Plastic-Framed Modules, Associated Cost Issues, and Companies Selling Into Each Segment

3. CELL AND MODULE EFFICIENCY

  • Best Research Cell Efficiencies, 1975-2012
  • Commercial Peak Cell Efficiencies, Selected Producers, H2 2012
  • Commercial Peak Module Efficiencies, Selected Producers, H2 2012
  • Cell Efficiency, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Module Efficiency, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Cell-to-Module Power Ratio, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E

4. SILICON COSTS

  • Spot and Blended Polysilicon Pricing, Q2 2011-Q1 2013
  • Blended Polysilicon ASP, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Polysilicon Price Forecast Variance, Q4 2013E-Q4 2017E
  • Silicon Utilization and Polysilicon Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Mono c-Si Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Silicon Utilization and Polysilicon Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Multi c-Si Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E

5. PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT COSTS

  • Capital Equipment Cost per Watt by Value Chain, China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Property and Plant Capital Cost per Watt by Value Chain, China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E

6. INGOT/WAFER FABRICATION COSTS

  • Technology Parameter Assumptions, Ingot Fabrication
  • Technology Parameter Assumptions, Wafer Slicing
  • Materials Usage Assumptions, Ingot Fabrication
  • Materials Usage Assumptions, Wafer Fabrication
  • Ingot and Wafer Consumables Pricing, China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Utility Rates, China, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Utilities Consumption Assumptions, Ingot/Wafer Conversion
  • Labor Rates, Line Workers and Manufacturing Engineers, China, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Labor Intensity, Ingot and Wafer Fabrication, China, 2011-2014E
  • Labor Intensity, Ingot and Wafer Fabrication, China, 2015E-2017E
  • Multi Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost Structure, Q4 2012, Best-in-Class China Manufacturer, 1 GW
  • Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost, Q4 2010-Q4 2012, GCL-Poly and Renesola
  • Q4 2011-2012 Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost, Actual vs. Estimated, Best-in-Class Chinese Producers
  • Mono Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost, Best-in-Class 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Multi Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost, Best-in-Class 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Ingot/Wafer Processing Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer (Increasing Scale), Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Multi c-Si Ingot Processing Cost Build-up, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Multi c-Si Wafer Processing Cost Build-up, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • All-in Wafer Cost by Technology, 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2012
  • All-In Wafer Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer, Increasing Scale, Q4 2011-Q4 2017

7. CELL PROCESSING COSTS

  • Technology Parameter Assumptions, Cell Processing
  • Materials Usage Assumptions, Cell Fabrication
  • Utilities Consumption Assumptions, Cell Processing
  • Labor Intensity of Cell Processing - China
  • Multi c-Si Cell Processing Cost Structure, Q4 2012, Best-in-Class China Manufacturer, 1 GW
  • Cell Processing Cost, China Sunergy, Q1 2010-Q4 2012
  • Q4 2011-2012 Cell Processing Cost, Actual vs. Estimated, China Sunergy
  • Multi c-Si Cell Processing Cost, Best-in-Class 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Mono c-Si Cell Processing Cost, Best-in-Class 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Cell Processing Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer (Increasing Scale), Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Multi c-Si Cell Processing Cost Build-Up, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E

8. MODULE ASSEMBLY COSTS

  • Technology Parameter Assumptions, Module Assembly
  • Module Materials Usage Assumptions
  • Consumables Pricing, Module Assembly, China, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Utilities Consumption, Module Assembly
  • Module Assembly Labor Intensity, China
  • Multi c-Si Module Processing Cost Structure, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2012
  • China Sunergy Module Processing Cost, Q4 2010-Q4 2012
  • ChinaSunergyandCanadianSolarModuleProcessingCost, Actualvs. Estimated, Q42011- Q42012
  • Multi c-Si Module Processing Cost, Best-in-Class 1 GW China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Module Processing Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer (Increasing Scale), Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Multi c-Si Module Assembly Cost Build-up, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E

9. ALL-IN MODULE MANUFACTURING COSTS

  • Jinko Solar All-In Module Manufacturing Cost, Actual vs. Estimated, Q4 2010-Q4 2012
  • All-In Multi c-Si Module Manufacturing Cost by Value Chain, 1 GW Vertically Integrated Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • All-In Multi c-Si Module Cost, Best-in-Class Chinese Producer (Increasing Scale), Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Contribution of Key Drivers Toward All-In Module Cost Reduction, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2012-Q4 2017E

10. SENSITIVITY AND VARIANCE ANALYSIS

  • Silicon $/W Cost Sensitivity to Polysilicon Price, Q4 2013E vs. Q4 2017E
  • Cell Processing Cost Sensitivity to Paste Price, Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2017E
  • All-In Multi c-Si Module Cost Sensitivity to Efficiency, China Producer, Q4 2013E
  • All-In Module Cost Sensitivity to Plant Scale, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2013E
  • All-In Module Cost, Fixed vs. Increasing Scale, Best-in-Class China Producer, Q4 2011-Q4 2017E
  • Impact of Plant Utilization on All-In Module Cost, China Producer, Q4 2013E
  • Boundary Case Analysis Input Assumptions
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