市場調査レポート

集光型太陽光発電 (CPV) 2011年:技術、コスト、市場

Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets

発行 Greentech Media Inc. 商品コード 206598
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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集光型太陽光発電 (CPV) 2011年:技術、コスト、市場 Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets
出版日: 2011年05月16日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

R&Dに注いだ数十年間を経て、集光型太陽光発電 (CPV) 業界はついに実用規模のソーラー市場に発展しました。

当レポートでは、70社市場の企業プロファイル、及び世界で稼働中/開発中のCPVプロジェクト170件全ての主な仕様を掲載した完全なリストを盛り込み、広範なソーラー市場におけるCPVの競合的位置づけに焦点を当て、高/中/低効率CPVと非集光型太陽光発電を様々な基準から比較し、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション/エグゼクティブサマリ

  • 概要
  • 要点

第2章 エンドユーザのニーズ

  • 立地
  • 送電の機会費用
  • エンドユーザの送電費用
  • 宇宙存在度
  • 電気を使用する場合
  • サマリー

第3章 CPVの可能性

  • 太陽電池と太陽電池効率
  • システム費用への効率性効果
  • 集光型の利点 (集光度が低い場合でも)
  • サマリー

第4章 CPV技術の要件

  • 光学
  • 温度
  • 散乱/直達日射
  • 太陽追尾
  • 電池
  • 市場の罰則
  • サマリー

第5章 現在のCPVシステムの競合分析

  • LCOEの計算
  • 太陽光の採取:kWh/WとkWh/m2
  • 費用
  • LCOE:¢/kWh

第6章 CPVの将来的見通し

  • 費用と効果の予測
  • 市場規模
  • サマリー

第7章 CPVプレーヤのプロファイル

  • 業界の概要
  • HCPV
  • MCPV
  • LCPV
  • 最も確実な企業 (設置/発表済みプロジェクト/資金力に基づく)
  • 結論

第8章 企業プロファイル

目次

After decades of R&D, the concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) industry is finally breaking into the utility-scale solar market. GTM Research forecasts new CPV installations to grow from under 5 MW in 2010 to more than 1,000 MW globally by 2015. The key driver enabling CPV to win projects in high-solar resource locations is CPV' s ability to provide developers with superior economics, as CPV has a lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) versus the non-concentrating PV alternatives.

Currently, the CPV pipeline is dominated by three system manufacturers: Concentrix Solar, Amonix, and SolFocus. As shown in the chart below, Solar Developers and Independent Power Producers (IPPs), such as Tenaska Solar, Cogentrix, and Sol Orchard have recently partnered with these leading CPV companies to develop large-scale plants in the U.S.

FIGURE: Global CPV Ecosystem

Source: GTM Research

GTM Research' s CPV report is the most comprehensive analysis available - with over 70 company profiles and a complete listing of key specifications for all 170 CPV projects in operation or under development worldwide. The report focuses on CPV' s competitive position within the greater solar market, and compares High, Medium, and Low CPV versus non-concentrating solar options on key metrics including: installed cost per watt, capacity factor, land usage, O&M costs, current and forecasted LCOE, and bankability.

VALUE-ADDED ELEMENTS:

  • Project tracker with more than 170 CPV projects
  • CPV technology advances and requirements in the field of cells, optics and trackers
  • Comprehensive cost matrices, presenting CPV economics in relation to competing solar technologies
  • CPV cost forecasts through 2015, with in-depth LCOE and capital cost breakdowns by technology and geographic location
  • Market demand forecasts through 2015 by country and U.S. state
  • Market profiles dissecting competitive histories of industry' s leading players

QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING:

  • Why should developers consider CPV for utility scale solar projects?
  • Which are the most bankable CPV systems?
  • How do CPV economics compare against other solar options in high, medium, and low solar resource locations?
  • Who are the key players in the CPV Value Chain - developers, EPCs, III-V triple junction cell manufacturers, Fresnel lens suppliers, tracking system vendors, and electricity purchasers?
  • Which countries show the most potential for CPV adoption?

FIGURE: CPV Projects in Operation, Construction or Development (with PPA/FIT) by System Manufacturer

Source: GTM Research

AUTHOR BIO

Brett Prior is a Senior Analyst with GTM Research, the market research arm of Greentech Media, where he focuses on renewable energy and project finance. Brett has published reports on Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP), and Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV).

Table of Contents

1. Introduction/ Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Synopsis
  • 1.2. Outline

2. Understanding the End Customer' s Needs

  • 2.1. Location, location, location
  • 2.2. The opportunity cost of transmission
  • 2.3. End-user cost of transmission
  • 2.4. Solar abundance
  • 2.5. When is electricity used?
  • 2.6. Summary

3. The Promise of CPV

  • 3.1. Photovoltaic cells and cell efficiency
  • 3.2. Efficiency effect on system cost
  • 3.3. Benefits of concentration - even low concentration
  • 3.4. Summary

4. CPV Technology Requirements

  • 4.1. Optics
  • 4.2. Heat
  • 4.3. Diffuse and direct solar radiation
  • 4.4. Tracking the sun
  • 4.5. Cells
  • 4.6. Market penalty
  • 4.7. Summary

5. Competitive Analysis of Current CPV Systems

  • 5.1. Calculating LCOE
  • 5.2. Solar harvest: kWh/W and kWh/m2
  • 5.3. Cost
  • 5.4. LCOE: ¢/kWh

6. Future Prospects for CPV

  • 6.1. Cost and Efficiency projections
  • 6.2. Market size
  • 6.3. Summary

7. Profiles of CPV Players

  • 7.1. Overview of industry
  • 7.2. HCPV
  • 7.3. MCPV
  • 7.4. LCPV
  • 7.5. Most bankable firms, based on installations/announced projects/funding
  • 7.6. Conclusions

8. Company Profiles

  • Absolicon Solar
  • Amonix Inc.
  • Abengoa Solar
  • Arima EcoEnergy
  • Banyan Energy
  • brightLeaf Technologies
  • Browave
  • Circadian Solar
  • C Power srl
  • Concentrix Solar GmbH_Cool Earth Solar
  • Covalent Solar
  • Concentracion Solar la Mancha (C.S. La Mancha) also Renovalia
  • Daido Steel
  • Delta Electronics
  • EdTek
  • EHW Research
  • Emcore Corporation
  • Energy Innovations
  • Enfocus Engineering
  • Entech Solar
  • ES System Co. Ltd
  • Everphoton Energy Corporation
  • Green and Gold Energy
  • Greenfield Solar
  • GreenVolts
  • Guascor Foton
  • Heliotrop
  • Isofoton
  • JX Crystals
  • MegaWatt Solar
  • Menova Energy
  • Morgan Solar
  • MST
  • On Sun Systems
  • OPEL International Inc.
  • Pacific SolarTech Inc.
  • Prism Solar Technologies, Inc.
  • Pyron Solar
  • Pythagoras Solar
  • Semprius
  • Sharp
  • Silicon CPV plc
  • Skyline Solar
  • Skyline Solar
  • Sol3G
  • Solar Systems Pty. Ltd. A subsidiary of Silex
  • Systems Ltd
  • Solaria Corporation
  • Solaris Synergy
  • Solar Tec International AG
  • Solergy
  • Solfocus Inc.
  • Soliant Energy Inc.
  • Soltec Renewable Energies
  • Spirox
  • Stellaris
  • SunCycle
  • Sunengy
  • Sunrgi
  • SunSeeker Energy
  • Taihan Techren
  • Whitfield Solar Ltd
  • WS Energia S.A.
  • XE Solar
  • zenith solar
  • Zettasun
  • Zytech Solar
  • 9 Bibliography

List of Figures

1. Introduction/ Executive Summary

  • CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT)
  • Global CPV Projects by Stage and System Manufacturer
  • Global CPV Ecosystem
  • LCOE Forecast by Solar Technology, 2010-2015
  • Potential Buyers of CPV Systems in the US
  • Bankability ranking
  • US: Existing Utility-Contracted Solar Pipeline
  • US: Existing Utility-Contracted Solar Pipeline by Developer Type
  • US Solar Projects w/ PPAs by Expected Online Date
  • Potential State Markets

2. Understanding the End Customer' s Needs

  • Night sky (Light Pollution Science and Technology Institute, 2001)
  • Annual DNI solar resource (meteotest, 2008)
  • Deserts of the world (pbs.org, 1996)
  • Grid interconnections (North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2007)
  • Critical Congestion Areas in U.S.
  • Transmission limited solar
  • Price of transmission, distribution, and electricity (U. S. Energy Information Administration, 2010)
  • Solar resource needed to supply world electricity needs (Loster, 2010)
  • Area needed to solarize U.S.
  • Seasonal peak day electricity demand
  • Solar resource seasonal profile
  • Typical electricity load curve breakdown (Federation of American Scientists, 2008)

3. The Promise of CPV

  • Solar spectrum (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2009)
  • Silicon and SunPower Si spectrum
  • Spectrolab triple junction spectrum
  • Value of efficiency
  • Best research cell efficiencies (Kurtz, 2010)
  • Concentration and cell cost
  • 1 Capex of silicon supply chain
  • Efficiency dependence on concentration (Antonio Luque, 2005)

4. CPV Technology Requirements

  • SolFocus reflective optics
  • Refractive optics
  • Efficiency losses in optical path
  • Effect of Temperature on Cell Performance by Technology
  • Theoretical maximum acceptance angle vs. concentration
  • % DNI to DNI + diffuse: Sensitivity to DNI (U. S. Department Of Energy , 2010)
  • Average temperature, daily DNI, and % DNI for sample U.S. locations
  • Cosine loss in fixed solar panels
  • Cosine loss
  • Shading with tilt or tracking
  • Shadow length of 1 meter panel
  • 5 Daily solar resource profile by mounting for four days throughout year in Phoenix, AZ
  • Tracker implementations

5. Competitive Analysis of Current CPV Systems

  • Equation for LCOE
  • Differentiating factors related to solar harvest (kWh/W)
  • PV material choice effects on harvest: Typical annual degradation,
  • temperature coefficients, and spectral mismatch effect
  • Typical NOCT
  • Conditions for nameplate rating
  • Adjustment for low concentration and flat plate efficiency
  • Concentration and tracking related losses
  • Loss by typical installation
  • Available resource for select locations with greater than 2000 kWh/m2/yr DNI
  • Annual harvest potential by location for the PV technology/install combination
  • Relative first-year harvest potential compared to 1-axis tracked non-concentrating silicon
  • Capacity factor by technology for select locations with greater than 2000 kWh/m2/yr DNI Capacity factor
  • 2010 installation 25-year harvest of 1 m2 panel of given technology with assumed panel efficiency
  • 25-year harvest from 1 sq. meter installed panel
  • kWh/W for select locations and installation types 25yr kWh/W
  • 2010 Module and Cell Efficiency and Module Costs
  • 2010 BOS cost components and how they scale with panel efficiency
  • Installation Costs in $/W-dc
  • Land usage comparison
  • Land cost
  • Lifetime O&M cost estimates
  • Financing assumptions
  • Graphical comparison of competitive locations for HCPV
  • LCOE in cents/kWh
  • All CPV competitive space, 2010
  • Percent greater price compared to CdTe in 2010
  • Relative contribution to LCOE

6. Future Prospects for CPV

  • Projected module and cell efficiency
  • Projected module costs $/W
  • Projected installation costs $/W
  • Projected installed system cost $/W
  • Projected installed system price with 20% margin
  • Projected LCOE and competitive space, 2011
  • Projected LCOE and competitive space, 2012
  • Projected LCOE and competitive space, 2013
  • Projected LCOE and competitive space, 2014
  • Projected LCOE and competitive space, 2015
  • CPV Consortium installation projection compared to PV projections
  • CPV market size to 2015

7. Profiles of CPV Players

  • Recent funding, acquisitions, exits
  • Year company entered CPV space
  • Cell providers for HCPV applications
  • HCPV traditional panel gallery
  • HCPV dense cell array systems
  • Small ‘boxes’ and ‘other’ panel designs
  • Rooftop and flat panel HCPV
  • MCPV gallery
  • LCPV gallery
  • Most likely to succeed list by CPV segment
  • CPV Company Overview
  • All CPV Projects ranked by size
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