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5G:実情および実体経済とは?

5G: What Are the Real Status and the Real Economics?

発行 Information Gatekeepers Inc. 商品コード 911895
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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5G:実情および実体経済とは? 5G: What Are the Real Status and the Real Economics?
出版日: 2019年09月26日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、5Gに関連したエコノミクスの客観的なレビューを含め、5G開発の現況および将来の展開可能性について、現実に即した分析を提供しています。

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK レポートシリーズ

5Gとは何か?

  • より速いデータ転送速度
  • より低いレイテンシー
  • 第2世代
  • 大量のデバイス接続性
  • コスト削減、ほか

5Gに参加している米国の主要キャリアの状況とは?

  • Verizon Wireless
  • AT&T Mobility
  • T-Mobile US
  • Sprint Corporation
  • T-Mobile と Sprint の合併
  • Dish Network
  • 5Gのエコノミクス
  • インフラに含まれる投資とは?

5Gのアーキテクチャー

  • 5Gネットワークの連携
  • 5G周波数の計画
  • 5Gネットワーク向けの多様なセルサイズ
  • 5Gネットワークアーキテクチャー・アプリケーションの解説

5Gインフラ

  • スモールセルアンテナ
  • ファイバー
  • 電話
  • 5G電話
  • その他の顧客アクセスデバイス
  • 無線機器メーカー
  • チップセットベンダー
  • 5Gの種類

5G予測

  • 予測の展開シナリオ
  • タイムライン
  • 5Gの資本予測
  • 各領域の予測
  • 予測サマリー

付録1:米国における携帯電話の世代の歴史

付録2:5Gの主な利用例 - IoT、自動運転車、供給過剰

付録3:米国におけるセルラーキャリアのリスト

付録4:トラフィック統計関連

付録5:データトラフィックのファンダメンタルズ

インターネットトラフィックの計算

目次

Overview:

What is the real status of 5G, and what are the real associated economics? How will the various related areas of infrastructure support 5G? While the conversion to 5G offers some uniquely exciting possibilities, the hype associated with it has overshadowed the reality of the situation. The marketing claims of some carriers are already confusing the introduction of 5G. The base purpose of 5G, to add vast amounts of mobile phone capacity, is being overshadowed. Each of the three principal varieties of 5G - mmWave, mid-band, and low-band has different qualities and capabilities. These are being continually confused by present marketing hype. This report strives to provide a clear statement as to the real, current status of 5G deployment and likely future deployment, including an objective review of the economics associated with 5G.

5G refers to a set of international standards for a new (5th) generation of mobile communications service. It is intended to ultimately replace the service currently available in most of the US - 4G LTE. It is designed to be much faster (maybe up to 100 times as fast as 4G LTE) in terms of download or upload speeds. Data reception is anticipated to have much lower latency (time spent in transmission) so that the data is in very near real-time - close to zero lag.

This added speed is excellent, and it is often a discussion topic, but it is not the real objective of 5G. The aim is to provide higher capacity on our mobile networks. Higher capacity for data, for voice, but mostly for video. Why the need for added traffic capacity? Simple: Cisco is now estimating that the compound annual growth rate of mobile traffic through 2022 is 36%! Our 4G-LTE networks are already nearing capacity in large cities, and yet are facing this impossible growth curve. The 5G is the answer to provide a vast new ability to meet this growing demand. All the other rationales for 5G are dreams; this is the driving reason.

The first question mostly ignored is the cost. There are many estimates available for 5G full deployment (small cells, mmWave) in the US. Early (2017) estimates fell in the $28B to $36B range for five years. Newer estimates now suggest that the cost over seven years would be as much as $275B and that the fiber alone needed for deploying the small cells would be as much as $130B-$150B. For a reference point, $275B would be well over ten times the total AT&T 2019 Capital Budget! A current study takes a different approach to the cost question and estimates that the total cost of ownership (TOC - includes maintenance, capital, and all fees) could increase for the mobile networks by as much as 300%!

These are big numbers - yes, the B's above are billions of dollars. These numbers suggest that we may be letting the technical hype run away with reality. A sudden conversion to a fully developed 5G large metro island, as is depicted in the many beautiful drawings, would be prohibitively expensive without some new services that would help, substantially, pay the bills. The question is, what new services pay for this? Alternatively, where are the added customers who pick up this big tab?

This comprehensive report is going to consider these issues and ultimately suggest the likely scenario for 5G deployment and associated five-year expenditures in this country. It moves into a discussion of 5G from many viewpoints, including objectives, frequency plans, architecture, and a listing and analysis of the vendors involved in the various parts of 5G infrastructure - phones, radios, and chipsets.

The report includes a discussion of the recent purchase by Apple of Intel 5G assets, and the recent Department of Justice approval of the T-Mobile/Sprint merger. Included is the analysis of the implications of 5G deployment of each of these current legal events.

The report presents, in detail, IoT, and Autonomous Vehicles as two possible use cases often mentioned for 5G. This report also examines the possibility of much higher levels of competition for high-speed Internet (and other fixed services) enabled thru 5G fixed wireless. The final main section of the report deals with specific forecasts for 5G in the US and the impact of those forecasts on overall network requirements. Those forecasts include:

The forecast deployment scenario and associated timeline and estimated capital expenditures as well as:

  • US Traffic - Total and Mobile
  • US Mobile Carriers Forecast Growth
  • 5G Phones Availability and Sources
  • IoT 5G Impact
  • Autonomous Vehicles 5G Impact
  • Over Build/ Cross Boundary Forecast
  • US 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Service
  • 5G Overall likely implementation plan and timeline

Appendixes provide details of the possible use cases and discuss the history of cellular development in the US. They also describe how we have moved along the path from one generation to the next. For reference, they also include various data and traffic issues.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • 5G: What Are the Real Status and the Real Economics?
  • Table of Contents
  • Table of Figures

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

  • The Lightwave Network
  • The Lightwave Series of Reports
  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports
  • Introduction
  • Economics

WHAT IS 5G?

  • Higher Data Rate
  • Lower Latency
  • 2nd Generation
  • Massive Device Connectivity
  • Reduced Costs Consistent Quality of Experience Provisioning

STATUS OF THE PRIMARY US CARRIERS INVOLVED IN 5G?

  • Verizon Wireless
    • Verizon 5G Deployment Status
  • AT&T Mobility
  • T-Mobile US 5G Deployment Status
  • Sprint Corporation
  • Sprint 5G Deployment Status
    • Mobile Hardware
  • T-Mobile and Sprint Merger
  • Dish Network
  • ECONOMICS OF 5G
  • What Investments Are Involved in Infrastructure?
    • Spectrum Cell Site Work and Additions Transmission Network Core How Much Will Infrastructure Investments Cost? How Much Are the Major Telcos Going to Spend on 5G Infrastructure?

ARCHITECTURE OF 5G

  • 5G Network Cooperation 5G Frequency Plans Various Cell Sizes for 5G Networks 5G Network Architecture and Application Illustrations

5G INFRASTRUCTURE

  • Small Cell Antennas
    • MIMO
    • MIMO and 5G
    • Massive MIMO Spectrum Multiplying Advantage
  • Fiber
    • Verizon Fiber Plan for 5G
  • Phones
  • 5G Phones
    • Android Based Phones
    • Apple
    • Samsung
    • LG
    • Huawei
  • Other Customer Access Devices
  • Radio Equipment Manufactures
    • Huawei
    • Ericsson
    • Nokia
    • ZTE
    • Samsung
  • Chip Set Vendors
    • Intel
    • Qualcomm
    • Samsung
    • Apple
    • Huawei
  • Types of 5G
    • Stationary
    • Mobile

5G FORECASTS

  • Forecast Deployment Scenario
    • 2019
    • 2020
    • 2021
    • 2022 and Later
  • Timeline
  • Capital Forecast for 5G
  • Individual Area Forecasts
    • Mobile Traffic Forecast
    • US Mobile Carriers Forecast
    • 5G Penetration Forecast - US
    • Smartphone Growth Forecast for 5G - the US
      • 5G Phone Introduction Plans
    • 5G US Penetration Forecast - Phones
    • Major Use Cases of 5G - Penetration Forecast
      • IoT - Internet of Things - 5G Penetration Forecast
      • Autonomous Vehicles - 5G Penetration Forecast
    • Forecast Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT
    • Over-Build Forecast
  • Forecast Summary
    • Traffic:
    • US Mobile Carriers:
    • Phones:
    • IoT:
    • Autonomous Vehicles:
    • Overbuild/ Cross-Boundary:

APPENDIX I - HISTORY OF GENERATIONS OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE USA

HISTORY OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE US

  • What are the Generations?
    • 1st Generation:
      • 1G Standards:
    • 2nd Generation:
      • 2G Standards:
    • 3rd Generation:
      • High-Speed Downlink Packet Access 3GPP Long Term Evolution, the Precursor of LTE Advanced Evolved HSPA:
      • 3G Standards:
    • 4th Generation:
      • LTE Advanced MIMO 4G Standards
    • 5th Generation:
      • 5G Standards

APPENDIX II. MAJOR USE CASES FOR 5G: IOT, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, OVERBUILD

  • IoT - The Internet of Things
    • Availability of a Network for Connection - a Major Problem with IoT
      • Cellular IoT Connections Explained: NB-IoT vs. LTE-M vs. 5G and More
      • How did Cellular IoT come to Be?
      • Cellular IoT is meant to meet the requirements of low-power, long-range applications.
    • Cat-1
    • Cat-0
    • Cat-M1/Cat-M/LTE-M
      • 5G as an IoT Connection Solution
    • How Does 5G Enable IoT?
  • Autonomous Vehicles
    • Autonomous Vehicles Benefits
    • Current Versions of Autonomy
    • Issues with Autonomous Development
      • Safety
      • Business Case
      • Availability of a Network for Interconnection
  • Overbuild - 5G as a Major Competitive Tool
    • Overbuilding
    • Cross-Boundary Service
  • Competitive Implications

APPENDIX III - LIST OF US CELLULAR CARRIERS

  • Contiguous US and Hawaii
  • Alaska

APPENDIX IV - TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

  • SONET/SDH Data Rates

APPENDIX V DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

INTERNET TRAFFIC CALCULATIONS

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Statistical Multiplexing
  • Peaking

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: 5G Capacity Capabilities
  • Figure 3: Theoretical 5G Speed
  • Figure 4: Standards Evolution from 4G to 5G
  • Figure 5: Lower Latency Triangle - 5G
  • Figure 6: IoT Sensing Points Explosion
  • Figure 7: 5G Connection Capabilities
  • Figure 8: US Major Mobile Carriers (Subscribers)
  • Figure 9: Verizon Coverage Map
  • Figure 10: AT&T Coverage Map
  • Figure 11: T-Mobile Coverage Map
  • Figure 12: Sprint Coverage Map
  • Figure 13: Size of Major Mobile Carriers after Merger '000s (end of 2017- 2019 data)
  • Figure 14: Major Telco Capital Expenditures 2013-2018
  • Figure 15: 5G Overall Layout
  • Figure 16: Cell/Technology Cooperation
  • Figure 17: 5G Frequency Allocation - US
  • Figure 18: Cell Types from Macro to Small
  • Figure 19: 5G Pictorial Architecture
  • Figure 20: 5G Infrastructure Applications
  • Figure 21: Different Types of Antennas to be Used with 5G
  • Figure 22: MIMO Multipath Propagation Increases Thru-Put
  • Figure 23: Depiction of Massive MIMO
  • Figure 24: Example of MIMO Antenna
  • Figure 25: 5G Layout Showing Fiber Connections
  • Figure 26: Graphical Illustration of Fiber's Place in a 5G Network
  • Figure 27: Smartphone Growth in US
  • Figure 28: Fixed Wireless 5G
  • Figure 29: 5G Forecast Timeline
  • Figure 30: Capital Expenditure Forecast
  • Figure 31: Major Data Traffic Sources
  • Figure 32: Mobile Traffic Growth
  • Figure 33: US Mobile Phone Data Traffic
  • Figure 34: US Major Mobile Carriers Forecast
  • Figure 35: 5G Penetration - One Forecast
  • Figure 36: 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Application
  • Figure 37: Smartphones as a Proportion of Total US Mobile Phones
  • Figure 38: Landlines are a Dying Bread
  • Figure 39: US Smartphone Shipments
  • Figure 40: Smartphone Penetration Forecast
  • Figure 41: IoT Sense Point Forecast
  • Figure 42: Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT
  • Figure 43: Wireless Penetration by Generation and Forecast
  • Figure 44: Network Generations Timeline
  • Figure 45: Conceptual Drawing - Internet of Things (IoT)
  • Figure 46: Cellular Approaches to IoT Connections
  • Figure 47: Goals of 5G
  • Figure 48: Some Current Partially Autonomous Versions
  • Figure 49: Verizon's NOOF FiOS Service
  • Figure 50: 5G Cross Boundary Service Example
  • Figure 51: Fixed Broadband Service Providers - US
  • Figure 52: Fixed Wireless Depiction
  • Figure 53: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 54: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 55: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 56: Wavelength to Frequency Conversion Chart
  • Figure 57: Sonet/SDH Conversions
  • Figure 58: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 59: Summary of Concepts
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