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ネットワーク伝送市場分析・装置予測:ROADM、DWDM、ルーター、スイッチ、およびネット中立性の影響

Network Transmission Market Analysis and Equipment Forecast: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches and the Impact of Net Neutrality

発行 Information Gatekeepers Inc. 商品コード 328150
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ネットワーク伝送市場分析・装置予測:ROADM、DWDM、ルーター、スイッチ、およびネット中立性の影響 Network Transmission Market Analysis and Equipment Forecast: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches and the Impact of Net Neutrality
出版日: 2015年04月10日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、特定のキャリアクラスのネットワーク伝送装置 (ROADM、DWDM、ルーター、スイッチ) の需要予測にフォーカスし、規制状況 (ネット中立性) のレビュー、市場需要、資本支出予測、各クラスの光ネットワーク装置の予測などを提供しています。

イントロダクション

ネットワーク中立性

  • ネットワーク中立性とは?
  • 最近の出来事
  • 主要企業は
  • 問題点
  • 装置市場への影響

需要:光ネットワークトラフィック

  • 需要成長:サマリー

供給:ネットワーク投資

  • キャリアの投資

供給:RBOCSによる資本投資

  • 資本投資
  • RBOCSの投資計画・予測
  • AT&Tの投資計画・予測
  • Verizonの投資計画・予測

装置の説明・予測

ROADMの説明

  • ROADMの種類
  • ROADMのサマリー
    • 機能:活用別
    • 種類:世代別
    • 説明
  • ROADMの予測
  • 米国市場の予測
  • 世界市場の予測

DWDM

  • DWDMの説明
  • メトロDWDM
  • DWDM-40・100Gbpsチャンネルの種類
  • DWDMの予測

スイッチ

  • IP・イーサネットスイッチ
  • スイッチの予測

ルーター

  • ルーターとは?
  • ルーターを使う理由
  • テラビットルーターとは?
  • 従来のルーター用途
  • ルーター予測

ベンダー

  • システムベンダーのリスト

付録?:トラフィック統計の関係

付録?:データトラフィックのファンダメンタルズ

図表

目次

Overview

This report is focused on forecasting demand for specific types of carrier-classnetwork transmission equipment: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches. To make that forecast it will investigate the demand parameters of this situation, which are primarily traffic forecasts. After reviewing the regulatory climate (Net Neutrality), and the market demand, the Report will look at capital expenditure forecasts as a surrogate for Supply. Then it will provide forecasts for various classes (ROADMs, DWDM, Routers and Switches) of optical network equipment in this environment.

The report will provide:

  • Equipment descriptions and sales forecasts for ROADMS, DWDM, Routers, and Switches through 2020.
  • A discussion of Net Neutrality, the players, the issues, and its impact on equipment sales.
  • Traffic forecasts for the North American Internet through 2020
  • N.A. and World forecasts for Mobile Traffic, Advanced Access Architecture lines(FiOS, U-Verse, Google), High-Speed lines (XDSL and cable modems) and International Traffic (North America only) through 2020.
  • Capital Expenditure forecasts for the major telecom companies through 2020.
  • Listing of Major Vendors in the Transmission Equipment space.

In addition to the changes in traffic sources, patterns, and absolute quantity, there are many changes thatThe general rule of large numbers indicates that it gets harder and harder to continue growing at the same growth rate (much more so at an increasing growth rate), simply because of the ever-increasing size of the base. Therefore, as the reader looks at these charts, he will (in most cases) see continued growth, just at diminished rates.

Internet traffic is beginning to slow (in growth rate,) tending toward the low teens, for reasons to be explored in the opening chapters on drivers. With the lower growth rate of traffic, one will see lower investment growth following in transmission equipment, as the market will remain cautious after the rather recent bitter experiences. In addition, as the Report also shows that the specter of Net Neutrality hangs over the market, with the doubt it is creating causing even more caution as to investment and purchases.

This report will discuss the very current topic of Network Neutrality, which is much in the headlines as this is being written, and its forecasted impact on network equipment sales.

This Report will then examine traffic on the network and, through analysis, show that traffic from four major sources (AAA lines, H-H lines, Mobile lines and International) is responsible for the vast preponderance of traffic and traffic growth. Forecasts will then be provided (thru 2020) for these classes of traffic and for the Internet as a whole.

Based on the information from the traffic forecasts, the uncertainty from regulation (Net Neutrality) and the capital investment plans and forecasts, the Report will then provide equipment sales forecasts (units and dollars) for ROADMs, DWDM, Routers, and Switches (all carrier class) thru 2020 for North America and for the World. Detailed descriptions of each type of equipment being forecast is also provided.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

NETWORK NEUTRALITY

What Is Network Neutrality?

What Has Happened Recently?

Who are the Major Players?

What are the Issues?

  • Technical Issues
  • Other Issues

Impact on Equipment Market

DEMAND - OPTICAL NETWORK TRAFFIC

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines

Demand Growth - Summary

SUPPLY - NETWORK INVESTMENT

Carrier's Investments

SUPPLY - CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY THE RBOCS

Capital Investments

  • Importance of Wireline

RBOC Investment Plans and Forecast

AT&T Investment Plans and Forecast

  • Verizon Investment Plans and Forecast
  • Loss of Main Lines
  • Summary Thoughts on Investment

EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTIONS AND FORECASTS

ROADM Description

Types of ROADMs

  • First Generation ROADM - PLC-Based ROADMs
    • Colorless vs. Colored Ports
    • Other Names
    • Benefits and Problems with PLC ROADMs
  • The Second-Generation ROADM - Blocker-Based ROADMs
    • Other Names
    • Alternative Designs for Blockers
    • Problems with Blocker-based ROADMs
  • Third-Generation ROADM - Wavelength Selective Switch (WSS)
    • Other Names
    • Problems and Benefits of WSS ROADMs
  • Fourth-Generation ROADMS - Edge ROADM (ER)

Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization

Summary of ROADM Types by Generation

Summary of ROADM Description

Summary of ROADM Types by Generation

Summary of ROADM Description

ROADM Forecast

ROADM Systems - US Forecast

  • US Edge ROADMs
  • US Market Forecast

World Market Forecast

DWDM

DWDM Description

  • Physical Components

METRO DWDM

What is Metro DWDM?

Types of DWDM -40 and 100 Gbps Channels

DWDM Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World DWDM Forecast

Switches

  • Switch Description

IP and Ethernet Switches

Switch Forecast

  • North American Switch Forecast
  • World Switch Forecast

ROUTERS

What is a Router?

Why Use Routers?

What is a Terabit Router?

  • Traditional Router Technology

Traditional Router Applications

Router Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World Router Forecast

VENDORS

System Vendor Listing

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Auxora, Inc.
  • CALIENT Technologies
  • Ciena
  • Cisco
  • ECI
  • Ericsson
  • Fujitsu
  • Infinera
  • Juniper
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Kingfisher International
  • Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton - Now Xtera
  • Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
  • Meriton Networks
  • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
  • NEC America Inc.
  • Nistica
  • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
  • Nortel (Now dissolved)
  • Performance Motion Devices
  • Tellabs
  • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
  • ZTE

APPENDIX I, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

APPENDIX II, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

Internet Traffic Calculations

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Statistical Multiplexing
  • Peaking

Summary of Concepts - Traffic Fundamentals

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Traffic Forecast - AAA Lines
  • Figure 3: Mobile Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 4: Mobile - Wireline Access
  • Figure 5: International Traffic
  • Figure 6: Data Traffic from Major Sources
  • Figure 7: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic
  • Figure 8: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
  • Figure 9: Summary Points on Demand
  • Figure 10: Supply Demand Relationship
  • Figure 11: Network Showing Wireless Access
  • Figure 12: Wireless Data Forecast
  • Figure 13: AT&T Capital Investment 2009-2014
  • Figure 14: Verizon Wireline Capital Expenditures 2009-2014
  • Figure 15: Verizon Wireline Negative Growth
  • Figure 16: Verizon Wireline Revenue Negative Growth
  • Figure 17: Verizon Revenue per Wireline
  • Figure 19: ROADM General Configuration
  • Figure 20: PLC Based ROADM
  • Figure 21: Detailed 'Blocker' ROADM Architecture
  • Figure 22: Alternative M-Z Diode-based Broadcast ROADM
  • Figure 23: WSS Structure
  • Figure 24: WSS-based ROADM
  • Figure 25: WSS-based Multi-degree Node Interconnection
  • Figure 26: Typical Blocker ROADM
  • Figure 27: WSS Added to Blocker
  • Figure 28: Summary of ROADM Types by Utilization
  • Figure 29: Four Generations of ROADMs
  • Figure 30: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
  • Figure 31: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
  • Figure 32: US Edge ROADMs Systems
  • Figure 33: Price Forecast for ROADMs
  • Figure 34: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
  • Figure 35: ROADM Market - US - By Technology
  • Figure 36: World ROADM Systems by Type
  • Figure 37: World ROADM Market
  • Figure 38: Typical DWDM Layout
  • Figure 39: Metro DWDM Typical Layout
  • Figure 40: Metro DWDM System Characteristics
  • Figure 41: North American DWM System Ends
  • Figure 42: North American DWDM Market
  • Figure 43: US DWDM Forecast by Channel Speed
  • Figure 44: DWDM - World Forecast - System Ends
  • Figure 45: DWDM World Market Forecast
  • Figure 46: DWDM World Forecast by Speed
  • Figure 47: North American Switch Market Forecast
  • Figure 48: North American Switches - Units Forecast
  • Figure 49: World Switch Market
  • Figure 50: World Switches - Units
  • Figure 51: Router Layout
  • Figure 52: Router Applications
  • Figure 53: North American Routers - Total - Units
  • Figure 54: North American Routers Total Market
  • Figure 55: North American Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 56: World Router Forecast - Units
  • Figure 57: World Router Market - Total
  • Figure 58: World Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 59: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 60: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 61: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 62: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 63: Summary of Concepts
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