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米国のセルラー産業 - 分析と予測:メーカー、OSおよびキャリア

The U.S. Cellular Industry - Analysis and Forecasts: Manufacturers, Operating Systems and Carriers

発行 Information Gatekeepers Inc. 商品コード 290108
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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米国のセルラー産業 - 分析と予測:メーカー、OSおよびキャリア The U.S. Cellular Industry - Analysis and Forecasts: Manufacturers, Operating Systems and Carriers
出版日: 2013年11月21日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

米国では無線普及率が2012年末時点で102%となりました。世帯の約40%が無線だけを利用しています。30万ヶ所以上の無線基地局が存在し、テキストメッセージは1年に2兆件を超えています。産業の投資資本額は毎年100億米ドル以上拡大しています。

当レポートでは、米国のセルラー産業について調査し、使用中のデバイス、デバイスあたりのトラフィック、および総トラフィック量などの予測、セルラーネットワークの基本的アーキテクチャーのレビュー、キャリアの歴史と発展、主要メーカー別のデバイス売上、およびオペレーティングシステム(OS)の予測などを提供しており、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

目次

図表

光波ネットワークシリーズレポート

イントロダクション

モバイルトラフィック予測

  • モバイルデバイス予測
  • 利用あたりのトラフィック予測

キャリア - 予測

ワイヤレスアクセス企業になりつつある主要キャリア

ワイヤレスアクセス情勢

有線から無線への予測

  • RBOCは主要回線を損失
  • それはワイヤレスアクセス産業!

先進アーキテクチャーサービスは収益格差を埋めることができるか?

米国の主要セルラーキャリア

世界のモバイル企業

主要キャリア別の加入者予測:北米

セルラーアーキテクチャー

  • ネットワークへの/からのリンク
  • モバイルスイッチングオフィス(MSU)
  • タワー接続
  • タワー
  • デバイス接続用タワー
  • セルラーデバイス
  • OS

キャリアあたりのトラフィック - 予測

モバイルデバイス:メーカー別の予測

米国におけるアクティブモバイルデバイスの予測

世界のデバイス販売 - 実績

メーカー別のトラフィック予測

OS予測

イントロダクション・歴史

OSの比較

世界のOS利用

世界のOS販売予測

付録?:米国のモバイルオペレーター

付録?:トラフィック統計関連

付録?:データトラフィックの基本

付録?:巨大企業の縮小

付録?:供給過剰

図表

目次

This is the report that has it all about the US cellular industry. It not only provides overviews of current statistics, architecture descriptions and histories, and current comparisons, but its centerpieces of each major section are forecasts through 2019. There are forecasts for traffic, for active devices, for average Busy Hour traffic per device, for devices and traffic by carrier. There are also forecasts for device sales (very different from active devices) and for operating systems sales. Every forecast is also accompanied by an exhaustive analysis.

The cellular industry has sprung in the last thirty years from nothing to a major force in virtually everyone's lives. Along the way, it has toppled one of the longest lasing, most successful and most pervasive industries in the world - the wireline telephone industry. This report focuses on the cellular (mobile) market in the United States and provides comprehensive and consistent forecasts for that industry (devices, device sales by manufacturer, sales of operating systems, carriers, and traffic per device) in a completed consistent and unified manner for the period 2013-2019.

Cellular service as we know it today was introduced in the US in the mid-2005s, with the deployment of 3G, a digital service that used packet switching for the data. In the last few years (starting in about 2009) 4G has been introduced bring much higher speed data capabilities and an all IP based service. This service is known as LTE (Long Term Evolution) for most carriers and as WiMAX by Sprint.

Cellular service has become so popular that many residents are discontinuing their landline service entirely. The landline telephone companies (mainly Verizon and AT&T) are losing landline customers by around 5% a year as a result of this. Because this loss has major implications for the wireless business, this report will also investigate the causes and possible impacts of it.

The following are some facts about the US cellular market that will put its growth in proper perspective.

  • Wireless penetration at the end of 2012 was 102%.
  • Almost 40% of the households are wireless only.
  • There are over 300,000 cell sites.
  • There are over 2,000,000,000,000 text messages a year.
  • The industry invests capital of over $30,000,000,000 a year on growth.
  • The average American cell phone user owns three (3) or more expired cell phones.
  • The average US consumer only uses their current cell phone for 12 to 18 months.

Organization of the Report

This report will begin with a section devoted to developing fundamental forecasts that will be used throughout the report. These base forecasts will be for active devices (those actually connected to a carrier), traffic per device in the busy hour, and total traffic. The next section will be devoted to carriers and we will spend some time reviewing the basic architecture of the cellular network and a brief history of its development. The next section will discuss device sales by major manufacturer. The last section will be devoted to operating systems. The centerpieces of each section will be forecasts through 2019 for the material in the section. This report contains over 90 pages and over 45 charts and graphs.

The Appendixes will be devoted to providing the reader with material (listings of carriers, traffic terminology, history of major players, etc.) too bulky to place in the main section of the report.

Report Author

This report was written by Clifford R. Holliday, the author of the highly popular Lightwave series of reports from Information Gatekeepers. He has long been associated with forecasting technology issues. Mr. Holliday spent over 30 years at GTE where he was VP in charge of Technology Planning in Business Planning. Since then he has run his own telecom consulting business (B&C Consulting Services) which provides network development and telecom business planning services to selected clients, and he has published over forty major market and technical reports through Information Gatekeepers.

Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

INTRODUCTION

MOBILE TRAFFIC - FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS

  • Mobile Devices - Forecast
  • Traffic Per Use - Forecast

United States Traffic Forecast

  • Mobile Traffic on the Network
  • Use of Forecasts in the Report

CARRIERS - FORECAST

Major carriers are becoming Wireless Access Companies

The Wireless Access Landscape

Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

  • RBOC Loss of Main Lines
  • It's a Wireless Access Industry!

Can Advanced Architecture Services Make-Up the Revenue Gap?

Major US Cellular Carriers

Worldwide Mobile Companies

Subscribers by Major Carriers, North America - Forecast

Cellular Architecture

  • Link to/from Network
  • Mobile Switching Office (MSU)
  • Tower Connection
  • Tower
  • Tower to Device Connection
  • Cellular Device
  • Operating System

Traffic per Carrier - Forecast

MOBILE DEVICES - FORECAST BY MANUFACTURER

Forecast for Active US Mobile Devices

World Device Sales - Actual

US Device Sales - Actual and Forecast

Traffic by Manufacturer - Forecast

OPERATING SYSTEMS - FORECAST

Introduction and History

Comparison of Operating Systems

World Operating System Usage

Operating System Sales Forecast

APPENDIX I - US MOBILE OPERATORS

APPENDIX II, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

APPENDIX III, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

  • Internet Traffic Calculations

APPENDIX IV, THE GIANTS ARE FALLING

  • Apple - The Best Device Maker in History

History of Apple

Microsoft - The Preeminent Software Developer in History

History of Microsoft

APPENDIX V - OVERBUILD

  • Overbuild - How?
  • Overbuild - Significance

A New Type of Competition

Summary of Overbuild Forecasts

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Theoretical Traffic Equation
  • Figure 3: Practical Traffic Equation
  • Figure 4: Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices
  • Figure 5: Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices - Table Form
  • Figure 6: Practical Traffic Equation
  • Figure 7: Traffic per use Forecast - United States Mobile Devices
  • Figure 8: Traffic per use Forecast - United States Mobile Devices- Table
  • Figure 9: United States Mobile Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 10: United States Mobile Traffic Forecast - Table
  • Figure 11: Mobile Network Access
  • Figure 12: Dilemma of Wireline vs. Wireless
  • Figure 13: Mobile Service Access Architecture
  • Figure 14: Wireless Competition
  • Figure 15: Summary for Wireline to Wireless Migration
  • Figure 16: Verizon Wireline vs. Wireless Revenues
  • Figure 17: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Wireline Revenue
  • Figure 18: Wireline Customers vs. Wireline Total Revenue
  • Figure 19: Alternatives for Making AAA Lines More Important
  • Figure 20: FiOS vs. Uverse Services
  • Figure 21: FiOS vs. Uverse Quarterly Additions
  • Figure 22: Worlds Largest Mobile Phone Companies by Mobile Revenue
  • Figure 23: Subscribers by Carrier - Forecast
  • Figure 24: Subscribers by Carrier Forecast - Table
  • Figure 25: Mobile Service Access Architecture
  • Figure 26: Technologies and Frequencies
  • Figure 27: Current Licenses - US
  • Figure 28: BH Traffic per Carrier - Forecast
  • Figure 29: Lightwave Access Networks - Mobile Access
  • Figure 30: BH Traffic per Carrier - Forecast - Table
  • Figure 31: Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices
  • Figure 32: Worldwide Device Sales 2011 -2012
  • Figure 33: Forecast of US Device Sales
  • Figure 34: Forecast of US Device Sales - Table
  • Figure 35: Traffic by Manufacturer - US
  • Figure 36: Operating Systems Comparison
  • Figure 37: Worldwide Operating System Sales
  • Figure 38: Worldwide Operating System Installed Base
  • Figure 39: Forecast of US Device Sales
  • Figure 40: Forecast of US Device Sales - Table
  • Figure 41: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 42: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 43: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 44: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 45: Summary of Concepts
  • Figure 2: Market Capitalization of Various Competitors - 2012
  • Figure 3: Market Capitalization of Various Competitors - 2013
  • Figure 46: Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
  • Figure 47: Overbuild Forecasts
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