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市場調査レポート

ネットワークトラフィック予測・分析

Network Traffic Forecast and Analysis: 2013-2017

発行 Information Gatekeepers Inc. 商品コード 285609
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ネットワークトラフィック予測・分析 Network Traffic Forecast and Analysis: 2013-2017
出版日: 2013年09月30日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当データベースでは、今後数年間の北米におけるネットワークトラフィック予測を提供しており、トラフィックを促進する業界および消費者パターンの調査、現在のトラフィック需要、産業における問題、およびトラフィックの各主要ソースから生まれるデータの予測などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

イントロダクション

市場成長促進因子

  • 特定の促進因子
  • 巨大企業は業績が悪化
  • Apple:歴史上で最高のデバイスメーカー
  • Microsoft:歴史上の傑出したソフトウェアメーカー

投資vs.収益

  • 需要:光ネットワークトラフィック
  • 主なトラフィックソース
  • 4つの主なトラフィックソース
  • 需要成長:サマリー
  • 供給:ネットワークにおける資本投資
  • キャリアの投資

革新

有線収益への影響:RBOCS(地域ベル電話会社)はワイヤレスアクセス企業になりつつある

  • ワイヤレスアクセス情勢
  • 有線から無線の予測
  • 先進アーキテクチャーサービスは収益格差を埋められるか?

詳細なネットワークトラフィック予測

  • 主なトラフィックソース
  • IPTV
  • その他4つの(IPTV以外)トラフィックソース

高速アクセス回線の詳細予測

高速ユーザーのトラフィック予測

  • 高速回線トラフィック予測の開発
  • 1回線トラフィックあたりの新しい高速(xDSL・ケーブルモデル)予測
  • 高速回線による新しいインターネットトラフィック予測(xDSL・ケーブルモデル)
  • ダイヤルアップトラフィック
  • AAAトラフィック
  • モバイルトラフィック
  • 総インターネットトラフィック予測
  • 光波ネットワーク
  • インターネットトラフィック予測
  • 基幹ネットワーク上のその他のトラフィックタイプ
  • 国際トラフィック
  • VoIPトラフィック
  • その他のデータネットワーク
  • 専用回線ネットワーク
  • 音声トラフィック

IPTV

  • IPTVの世界的アーキテクチャー
  • アクセス帯域幅のニーズは何か?
  • 帯域幅の要件

全体的なネットワークトラフィック予測

  • 総ネットワークトラフィック:IPTV以外
  • インターネットの成長
  • 総空ふぃっく予測:IPTV含む

付録?:供給過剰

付録?:トラフィック統計の関係

付録?:データトラフィックのファンダメンタルズ

付録?:Appleの歴史

付録?:Microsoftの歴史

目次

This report provides the reader with a forecast for North American Network Traffic for the next several years, but perhaps more importantly, it will also explore the industry and consumer patterns that are driving that traffic. The lessons of the very recent history of telecommunications suggest that it is very important to understand network traffic patterns and the resulting, reasonable forecasts for growth. Dramatic “busts” disastrously impacting entire industry segments have resulted from a misunderstanding of traffic patterns and the resulting misleading forecasts. This report is directed at trying to provide understanding of these parameters and providing a basis for sound business judgments. This report will provide hard data traffic forecasts by all sources of traffic on the network and will use those source forecasts to build composite forecasts, but, as noted, it will also do more than just provide raw numbers, by giving the reader a perspective of the drivers and patterns behind those numbers. The report will use the “Demand” (traffic) and “Supply” (network resources) paradigm of the economist to help understand the interactions of the traffic “market place”.

Traffic Demand Today

Traffic demand on the network is largely driven, today, by the various sources comprising the Internet and particularly by mobile data traffic. The data streams resulting from end users accessing the Internet or the cellular telephone network are the major sources of traffic growth. These data streams comprise three of the four “Major Sources of Traffic,” as identified in this report and they are the largest and the fastest growing. Two companies, more than any others, are responsible for this growth - Apple and Microsoft. Of course, there are many other companies (e.g., Samsung - the largest cell phone maker, Google - the developer of Chrome, etc.) that are a part of either or both of these markets, but these two are almost entirely responsible for inventing the markets of the Smartphone as we know it today and the Internet.

Problems in the Industry

There are dramatic changes facing Apple and Microsoft, who are the largest companies in the US telecommunications business and who are among the largest companies in the World. Both Apple and Microsoft are having financial troubles. Regardless of their cash on hand (a measure of past successes, not a promise of future success) these two companies are reporting slowing sales of their major products - hardware in Apple's case and software in Microsoft's case - and resulting lower net earnings. As this is being written, Microsoft has bought the Nokia cell phone assets in a bid to get a foothold in the cell business, and Apple has announced a new release of its operating system and new iPhone models. Their troubles are symptomatic of the industry and must be discussed in the context of traffic demand - the subject of this report.

On the supply side of the equation, a similarly caused situation is occurring with the largest telecom companies (primarily AT&T and Verizon) in that they are having to build network infrastructure to carry traffic for which they can't charge adequately thus reducing their return on investment, while their base services (landline telephones) are disappearing.

All of these problems in our industry are related to traffic: its growth, its source and its nature. This report addresses a forecast for US traffic in total and by source, and provides an analysis of the traffic growth patterns from each of the various sources. The sources have been structured in a way that they are physically separate, and thus can be dealt with on an investment basis.

Organization of the Report

This Report will investigate the parameters of this situation - supply and demand, wire-line income, optical network innovation, and telecoms' investment. The report is over 130 pages long and contains over 85 figures and charts.

The Report will begin with a discussion of market drivers (the drivers of the market are what drives traffic) and will then look at the demand and supply situation of the network much as an economist would. The reader should remember that either an over-supply (wasted capacity) or unfilled demand (poor service, slow response times, etc.) can affect the traffic that the network experiences. In the “demand” section, we will introduce our first set of forecasts providing hard forecasts for the major sources of Internet traffic. As a part of the demand/supply review, we will investigate related issues such as the impact of changes at some of the major companies (Apple and Microsoft) and the impact of the conversion of the network from wire line to wireless.

The next major section will provide the hard data forecasts for traffic from each of the major sources of traffic. The report uses this breakdown (by sources) rather than just by Internet, etc., to make the data more useful to the reader.

The Appendixes provide several items (traffic definitions, terms, Histories of the companies mentioned, etc.) that are thought to be needed by many readers.

Table of Contents

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

INTRODUCTION

MARKET DRIVERS

Specific Drivers

The Giants Are Falling

Apple - The Best Device Maker in History

Microsoft - The Preeminent Software Developer in History

INVESTMENT VS. REVENUES - I'M BUILDING IT; EVERYBODY'S COMING; NOBODY IS BUYING (PAYING)

Demand - Optical Network Traffic

Major Traffic Sources

Four Major Sources of Traffic

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines

Demand Growth - Summary

Supply - Capital Investment in the Network

Carriers' Investments

  • RBOC Investment Plans
  • Verizon Investment Plans
  • Importance of Wireline
  • Summary Thoughts on Investment

INNOVATION - CAN IT SAVE THE INVESTMENT DAY?

  • Network Innovations in the last 20-30 Years

IMPACT ON WIRELINE REVENUES -RBOCS ARE BECOMING WIRELESS ACCESS COMPANIES

The Wireless Access Landscape

Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

  • RBOC Loss of Main Lines
  • It's a Wireless Access Industry!

Can Advanced Architecture Services Make-Up the Revenue Gap?

Summary of Revenue Issues

DETAILED NETWORK TRAFFIC FORECAST

Major Traffic Sources

IPTV

Four Other (Non-IPTV) Sources of Traffic

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines

HIGH-SPEED ACCESS LINES DETAILED FORECAST

  • High-Speed Access Lines Forecast
  • Household Penetration - New Forecast

TRAFFIC FORECAST FOR HIGH-SPEED USERS

Developing a High-Speed Line Traffic Forecast

  • Rationale for Updating the Traffic Forecast High-Speed Lines

New High-Speed (xDSL and Cable Modem) per Line Traffic Forecast

  • Change to 75% of BH to Average
  • Components of BH Traffic Change Over Time

New Internet Traffic Forecast from High-speed Lines (xDSL and Cable Modem)

Dialup Traffic

AAA Traffic

Mobile Traffic

Total Internet Traffic Forecast

Lightwave Network

  • Network Location of Internet Traffic

Internet Traffic Forecast

Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network

International Traffic

  • Network Location of International Traffic
  • Forecast for International Traffic

VoIP Traffic

  • Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
  • Forecast for VoIP Traffic

Other Data Networks

  • Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Forecast for Other Network Traffic

Private Line Networks

  • Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Forecast for Private Line Traffic

Voice Traffic

  • Location of Voice Traffic
  • Forecast for Voice Traffic

IPTV

IPTV Global Architecture

  • Super Hub Office
  • Serving Offices

What are the Access Bandwidth Needs?

  • Drivers of Bandwidth Requirements

Bandwidth Requirements - 2012 Scenario

OVERALL NETWORK TRAFFIC FORECASTS

Total Network Traffic - No IPTV

Growth of the Internet

Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV

APPENDIX I - OVERBUILD

  • Overbuild - How?
  • Overbuild - Significance

A New Type of Competition

Summary of Overbuild Forecasts

APPENDIX II, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

APPENDIX III, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

Internet Traffic Calculations

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Statistical Multiplexing
  • Peaking

APPENDIX IV - HISTORY OF APPLE

APPENDIX V - HISTORY OF MICROSOFT

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Market Capitalization of Various Competitors - 2012
  • Figure 3: Market Capitalization of Various Competitors - 2013
  • Figure 4: Mobile Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 5: Data Traffic from Major Sources
  • Figure 6: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic
  • Figure 7: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
  • Figure 8: Summary Points on Demand
  • Figure 9: Supply Demand Relationship
  • Figure 10: AT&T Capital Investment 2009-2012
  • Figure 11: Verizon Wireline Capital Expenditures 2009-2012
  • Figure 12: Verizon Wireline Negative Growth
  • Figure 13: Verizon Wireline Revenue Negative Growth
  • Figure 14: Verizon Wireline as a Portion of Total Revenues
  • Figure 15: Network Showing Wireless Access
  • Figure 16: Wireless Data Forecast
  • Figure 17: Network Innovations
  • Figure 18: Mobile Network Access
  • Figure 19: Dilemma of Wireline vs. Wireless
  • Figure 20: Wireless Competition
  • Figure 21: Summary for Wireline to Wireless Migration
  • Figure 22: Verizon Wireline vs. Wireless Revenues
  • Figure 23: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Wireline Revenue
  • Figure 24: Wireline Customers vs. Wireline Total Revenue
  • Figure 25: Alternatives for Making AAA Lines More Important
  • Figure 26: FiOS vs. Uverse Services
  • Figure 27: FiOS vs. Uverse Quarterly Additions
  • Figure 28: Revenue Issues
  • Figure 29: Total Traffic Compared to IPTV
  • Figure 30: Data Traffic from Major Sources - NO IPTV
  • Figure 31: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic (no IPTV)
  • Figure 32 New High-Speed Access Forecast
  • Figure 33: High-Speed Lines Forecasts - All Types
  • Figure 34: High-Speed Access HH Penetration Rate - New Forecast
  • Figure 35: BH High-Speed per Line Usage - Old Forecast
  • Figure 36: New Forecast for Per Line Traffic
  • Figure 37: Components of New Forecast for per Line Usage in BH
  • Figure 38: Components of the Total per Line BH Traffic Estimates
  • Figure 39: Changes in per Line BH Usage Components
  • Figure 40: File Sharing Component Decomposition
  • Figure 41: File Sharing Components - 2006
  • Figure 42: File Sharing Components in 2010
  • Figure 43: File Sharing Components Change Over Time
  • Figure 44: Internet Traffic Formula
  • Figure 45: Forecast for Internet Traffic from High-Speed Accesses
  • Figure 46: Dial-up Lines Forecast
  • Figure 47: Dial-Up Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 48: High-Speed vs. Dial-Up Traffic
  • Figure 49: Ratio of High-Speed Traffic to AAA per Line Traffic
  • Figure 50: AAA Line Forecast
  • Figure 51: AAA Traffic
  • Figure 52: Mobile Traffic
  • Figure 53: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 54: Network Location - Internet Traffic
  • Figure 55: Internet Total Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 56: Internet Traffic Change over Time
  • Figure 57: Network Location of International Traffic
  • Figure 58: International Traffic
  • Figure 59: Location of VoIP Traffic
  • Figure 60: VoIP Traffic
  • Figure 61: Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Figure 62: Other Data Networks
  • Figure 63: Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Figure 64: Private Line Networks
  • Figure 65: Location of Voice Traffic
  • Figure 66: Voice Traffic
  • Figure 67: IPTV Global Architecture
  • Figure 68: Drivers of Access Bandwidth Requirements
  • Figure 69: Usage Scenario - 2012
  • Figure 70: 2012 Bandwidth Requirements
  • Figure 71: Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2012
  • Figure 72: Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
  • Figure 73: Total Traffic Forecast (No IPTV)
  • Figure 74: Growth Rate - All Traffic - No IPTV
  • Figure 75: Internet Components Forecast
  • Figure 76: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
  • Figure 77: Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV
  • Figure 78: Backbone Growth Rates (Includes IPTV)
  • Figure 79: All Traffic Components with IPTV
  • Figure 80: Total Traffic Forecast and Growth Rate with IPTV
  • Figure 81: Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
  • Figure 82: Overbuild Forecasts
  • Figure 83: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 84: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 85: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 86: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 87: Summary of Concepts
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