Another Telecom Network BUST? 2000 All Over Again?

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出版日 ページ情報 英文
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さらなる通信ネットワークの失敗?2000年代のやり直し? Another Telecom Network BUST? 2000 All Over Again?
出版日: 2013年03月01日 ページ情報: 英文





  • 主なトラフィックソース
  • 4つの主要トラフィックソース
    • AAAアクセス回線
    • モバイルデバイス
    • 国際トラフィック
    • H-Sアクセス回線
  • 需要成長:サマリー


  • キャリアの投資


  • ワイヤレスアクセス情勢
  • ワイヤレス用有線の予測
    • RBOC(地域ベル電話会社)は主要回線を失う
    • それはワイヤレスアクセス産業!
    • 先進アーキテクチャーサービスは収益格差を埋められるか?
    • 収益課題のサマリー


  • 有線の重要性
  • RBOCの投資計画
  • Verizonの投資計画
  • 投資に関するサマリー


  • 過去20-30年間のネットワーク革新


  • ROADMの予測
    • 米国のエッジ用ROADM
    • 米国市場の予測
  • ROADMシステム:米国の予測
  • 世界市場の予測
  • DWDM予測
    • 北米の予測
    • 世界のDWDM予測
  • スイッチ予測
    • 北米のスイッチ予測
    • 世界のスイッチ予測
  • ルーター予測
    • 北米のルーター予測
    • 世界のルーター予測
    • ベンダー
  • システムベンダーのリスト
    • Adva Optical Networking
    • Alcatel-Lucent
    • Avvio Networks
    • Ciena
    • Cisco
    • ECI
    • Ericsson
    • 富士通
    • Infinera
    • Huawei Technologies
    • Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton - Now Xtera
    • Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
    • Meriton Networks
    • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
    • NEC America Inc.
    • Nistica
    • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
    • Nortel (Now dissolved)
    • OpVista Inc
    • Tellabs
    • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
    • ZTE






The industry is rapidly moving from wireline based to wireless. However, wireline continues to provide the infrastructure for the entirety. Wireline revenue, which supports wireline investment, which is the infrastructure for wireless, is falling substantially. The new Advanced Architecture services (FiOS and Uverse) are great successes, in terms of total impact, but they are not enough to stop the erosion of wireline revenues. What's more, it appears that these services are growing at a much slower rate, and in fact are in decline.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s telecoms all over the world were building network capacity to meet a traffic growth that didn't materialize (at least not until a decade later.) Normally responsible executives were proclaiming that the network was growing at 400% a year (!) and capacity was being built to that projection. Nothing grows at 400% for long, and the network certainly didn't.

The telecoms borrowed money to build for income that never came; they used fraudulent accounting schemes to hide the true costs of their mis-endeavors; equipment vendors loaned telecoms more than the value of their purchases in order to get business. These abuses led to many bankruptcies and great losses on the stock market. World-leading vendors and telecoms went down - either in bankruptcy or by being sold to other companies at pennies on the dollar. In addition, a large over-capacity position was created in the network market place. The telecom bust was said to be ten times more painful than the dot.com bust that occurred more for less simultaneously.

Perhaps George Gilder, the renowned futurist and technologist, was partially responsible for this Telecom Bust. He predicted in 2001 that there would be a trillion dollar telecom market. He was partially right, because there were extensive drivers of added traffic on the network. However, there was one problem, the telecoms couldn't devise a way to charge for the traffic being generated on the network, and that same problem persists today.

Now, over a decade later, that excess capacity has been abandoned, obsoleted, or more than used up. Telecoms have long since begun building new capacity - much more cautiously this time, using new technology - DWDM and ROADMs largely. Traffic now is growing continuously (at 40%, not 400% a year) but capacity is growing much slower due to the caution from the bitter 2000 experience, and due to the worldwide recession. This combination could be leading to a reversal of the 2000 situation, but potentially just as dangerous - a new telecom BUST created by poor service on what are now very critical telecom links resulting from under capacity.

In this day of everything going wireless, it is important to separate access from network. Wireless is an access service, as is FiOS, Uverse, POTS, etc. They all use the wireline network to interconnect. Investment in wireline supports the network carriage of all access traffic, including wireless. Therefore, when we say that the traffic on the network is increasing by 40% a year, we are talking about traffic on the wireline network, regardless of its access point.

Capital investment (a redundant phrase) is the “Supply” side of the demand - supply relationship in network economics. Actually, the supply side is cumulative investment plus ongoing capital investment, but we are only going to deal with the going forward issues. If capital investment is not keeping up with growth as in the introductory chart of this section, then the ongoing traffic growth will overtake the capacity and all of the disastrous things previously delineated will happen to the network - slow responses, server shutdowns, etc. So, the question is, given the traffic increases we have already described on the demand side of the equation, are the major telcos investing enough to keep the network capacity ahead of demand? The short answer would appear to be - “No!”.

This report will investigate the parameters of this situation:

  • supply and demand
  • wire-line income
  • optical network innovation
  • and telecoms' investment

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports



Major Traffic Sources

Four Major Sources of Traffic

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines

Demand Growth - Summary


Carrier's Investments


The Wireless Access Landscape

Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

  • RBOC Loss of Main Lines
  • It's a Wireless Access Industry!
  • Can Advanced Architecture Services Make-Up the Revenue Gap?
  • Summary of Revenue Issues


  • Importance of Wireline
  • Figure 19, Network Showing Wireless Access
  • RBOC Investment Plans
  • Verizon Investment Plans
  • Summary Thoughts on Investment


  • Network Innovations in the last 20-30 Years


ROADM Forecast

ROADM Systems - US Forecast

  • US Edge ROADMs
  • US Market Forecast

World Market Forecast

DWDM Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World DWDM Forecast

Switch Forecast

  • North American Switch Forecast
  • World Switch Forecast

Router Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World Router Forecast
  • Vendors

System Vendor Listing

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Avvio Networks
  • Ciena
  • Cisco
  • ECI
  • Ericsson
  • Fujitsu
  • Infinera
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton - Now Xtera
  • Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
  • Meriton Networks
  • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
  • NEC America Inc.
  • Nistica
  • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
  • Nortel (Now dissolved)
  • OpVista Inc
  • Tellabs
  • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
  • ZTE


  • Overbuild - How?
  • Overbuild - Significance

A New Type of Competition

Summary of Overbuild Forecasts



Internet Traffic Calculations

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Bits and Bytes
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Peaking

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Mobile Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 3: Data Traffic from Major Sources
  • Figure 4: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic
  • Figure 5: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
  • Figure 6: Summary Points on Demand
  • Figure 7: Supply Demand Relationship
  • Figure 8: Mobile Network Access
  • Figure 9: Dilemma of Wireline vs. Wireless
  • Figure 10: Wireless Competition
  • Figure 11: Summary for Wireline to Wireless Migration
  • Figure 12: Verizon Wireline vs. Wireless Revenues
  • Figure 13: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Wireline Revenue
  • Figure 14: Wireline Customers vs. Wireline Total Revenue
  • Figure 15: Alternatives for Making AAA Lines More Important
  • Figure 16: FiOS vs. Uverse Services
  • Figure 17: FiOS vs. Uverse Quarterly Additions
  • Figure 18: Revenue Issues
  • Figure 19: Network Showing Wireless Access
  • Figure 20: Wireless Data Forecast
  • Figure 21: AT&T Capital Investment 2009-2012
  • Figure 22: Verizon Wireline Capital Expenditures 2009-2012
  • Figure 23: Verizon Wireline Negative Growth
  • Figure 24: Verizon Wireline Revenue Negative Growth
  • Figure 25: Verizon Wireline as a Portion of Total Revenues
  • Figure 26: Network Innovations
  • Figure 27: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
  • Figure 28: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
  • Figure 29: US Edge ROADMs Systems
  • Figure 30: Price Forecast for ROADMs
  • Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
  • Figure 32: ROADM Market - US - By Technology
  • Figure 33: World ROADM Systems by Type
  • Figure 34: World ROADM Market
  • Figure 35: World ROADM Market by Types
  • Figure 36: North American DWM System Ends
  • Figure 37: North American DWDM Market
  • Figure 38: US DWDM Forecast by Channel Speed
  • Figure 39: DWDM - World Forecast - System Ends
  • Figure 40: DWDM World Market Forecast
  • Figure 41: DWDM World Forecast by Speed
  • Figure 42: North American Switch Market Forecast
  • Figure 43: North American Switches - Units Forecast
  • Figure 44: World Switch Market
  • Figure 45: World Switches - Units
  • Figure 46: North American Routers - Total - Units
  • Figure 47: North American Routers Total Market
  • Figure 48: North American Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 49: World Router Forecast - Units
  • Figure 50: World Router Market - Total
  • Figure 51: World Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 52: Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
  • Figure 53: Overbuild Forecasts
  • Figure 54: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 55: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 56: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 57: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 58: Summary of Concepts
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