市場調査レポート

Apple - モバイルデバイスインターネットトラフィックにおける台風の目

Apple - The Eye of the Storm: Mobile Device Internet Traffic

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出版日 ページ情報 英文
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Apple - モバイルデバイスインターネットトラフィックにおける台風の目 Apple - The Eye of the Storm: Mobile Device Internet Traffic
出版日: 2012年08月31日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

Appleは、AT&TやVerizonのように公共ネットワークを所有しておらず、Googleのように膨大なコンピューター装置も所有しておらず、またMicrosoftのように強大なソフトウェアメーカーでもなく、主にこれら企業の資産へ接続するためのアクセスデバイスをエンドユーザーへ提供する企業です。Appleの歴史はモバイルデバイスのトラフィック生成の歴史であり、トラフィックの嵐を利用してうまくビジネスを築き上げました。

当レポートでは、モバイルデバイスインターネットトラフィックにおけるAppleの役割について調査し、Appleの歴史と資金面、モバイル生成ネットワークトラフィックの分析、モバイルトラフィックの予測、Appleのデバイスが生成するトラフィックの予測、Appleおよび他の大手企業の戦略の分析と予測、Appleの位置に重点を置いた電気通信市場全体の概説などを提供しており、概略下記の構成で取り上げております。

光波ネットワークシリーズレポート

Apple-台風の目

イントロダクション

Samsungに対する裁判の勝利の影響

Appleの歴史

Apple-資金が巨大な企業

  • 現在の資産
  • 純利益

「嵐」-モバイルデータトラフィック

  • モバイルデバイス
  • モバイルデバイストラフィックにおけるAppleの役割
  • Appleのトラフィックのサマリー
  • Apple

市場の歴史

  • 合併後の競合
  • ROBOCのIXC買収
  • ROBOC vs. ケーブル企業
  • ROBOCはワイヤレスアクセス企業に
  • ROBOCは主要回線を失う
  • ワイヤレスアクセス産業
  • ワイヤレスアクセス情勢
  • 有線からワイヤレスへの予測

近年の歴史:スーパーコンペティター

  • 「スーパーコンペティター」の戦略

大手企業の戦略

  • Appleの戦略
  • その他の大手企業の戦略
  • Googleの戦略
  • マネジメント・金融項目
  • ネットワーク項目
  • Googleの戦略のサマリーと予測
  • Googleの選択肢
  • Verizonの戦略
  • マネジメント・金融項目
  • ネットワーク項目
  • Verizonの戦略のサマリーと予測
  • AT&Tの戦略マネジメント・金融項目
  • ネットワーク項目
  • AT&Tの戦略のサマリーと予測
  • 大手コンペティターの戦略についてのコメント

インターネット上のトラフィック予測のアプローチ

  • 総ネットワークトラフィック
  • 用語

主なトラフィックソース

サマリー

  • インターネット上のトラフィック予測のアプローチ
  • 高速アクセス回線(xDSLおよびケーブルモデム)
  • 高速ユーザーのトラフィック予測
  • ダイヤルアップトラフィック

AAAトラフィック

モバイルトラフィック

総インターネットトラフィック

  • インターネットトラフィック
  • VoIPトラフィック

その他のデータネットワーク

  • 専用回線ネットワーク
  • 音声トラフィック
  • 総ネットワークトラフィック
  • IPTV
  • 4つのその他の(非IPTV)トラフィックソース
  • AAAアクセス回線
  • モバイルデバイス
  • 国際トラフィック
  • H-Sアクセス回線
  • ダイヤルアップトラフィック
  • AAAトラフィック
  • モバイルトラフィック
  • 総インターネットトラフィック予測
  • 光波ネットワーク
  • インターネットトラフィックのネットワークロケーション
  • インターネットトラフィック予測
  • 基幹ネットワーク上のその他のトラフィックタイプ
  • 国際トラフィック
  • 国際トラフィックのネットワークロケーション
  • 国際トラフィック予測
  • VoIPトラフィック
  • ネットワーク上のVoIpトラフィックのロケーション
  • VoIPトラフィック予測
  • その他のデータネットワーク
  • その他のネットワークトラフィックのロケーション
  • その他のネットワークトラフィック予測
  • 専用回線ネットワーク
  • 専用回線トラフィックのロケーション
  • 専用回線トラフィック予測
  • 音声トラフィック
  • 音声トラフィックのロケーション
  • 音声トラフィック予測

付録1:トラフィック統計の関連性

付録2:データトラフィックの基本

図表

目次

Abstract

Overview

image1

This timely report includes an analysis of the impact of Apple's recent court victory over Samsung. Apple is now the largest company in history - find out why!

This report is about a company that doesn't own public networks (like AT&T and Verizon); it doesn't own vast computer installations (like Google); it is not a massive software manufacturer (like Microsoft); it is a company that primarily deals with providing end users the access devices that allow connection to all of these other companies' assets. Many would not even call it a telecommunications company at all; but by almost any measure, it is the most successful telecommunications company of all time. This company is Apple! The story of Apple is the story of traffic generation from mobile devices and how to use that storm of traffic to successfully build a business.

It has been six years since our last network traffic forecast (2006) and many things have happened since then. To bring that report up to date, we issued a "Network Traffic Report --2011."

We are now focusing on a particular aspect of that traffic - mobile device originated - and the main company responsible for much of that traffic - Apple.

The major events affecting North American network traffic growth are:

  • The dramatic rise in traffic from Advanced Access Architecture (AAA) Lines (FTTP and FTTN).
  • The startling increase in IPTV Traffic.
  • The increase in overseas traffic, especially from the booming economies of the Far East.
  • The relative decline (in the period of this forecast) of high-speed access lines and the traffic from them. This includes xDSL lines and cable modems.
  • Other traffic items (sources) increase in the period, but with much less impact than these five.

-- but the most important event has been

  • The increase in popularity of using mobile devices and especially using them for data intensive applications.

This report begins with a short history of Apple, and then we will move to an overview of the financial underpinnings of Apple. We will use the two major telecom companies - AT&T and Verizon - as well as the other two companies often involved with the same things that Apple is - Microsoft and Google, for comparisons. It is important to understand Apple's financing to understand the range of strategic options that are open to them and also to understand the depth of their success.

The next area of focus is the traffic on the Internet coming from mobile devices, and the extent of the growth of this traffic and Apple's involvement. The story about Internet traffic is the heart of the Apple success. More than any other company, they have managed to monetize this traffic without requiring astronomical investments and maintenance. We will rely heavily on our recent report mentioned above, "Network Traffic Report - 2011," for forecasts and comparisons.

To help understand the entirety of the telecom marketplace, we introduce a section outlining the recent history of the telecommunications industry and the major players in it (at least as relates to this report.) the intention of this section is to locate Apple on the continuum of telecom companies. As will be seen, it only fits poorly.

We conclude the main section of this report with a discussion of Apple's strategies as well as those of the other major players.

The Appendixes provide a discussion of IPTV and a forecast for IPTV traffic. Also, extensive material is in the Appendixes, to help the reader with the various traffic concepts in this report.

This report provides:

  • A History of Apple.
  • A discussion of Apple finances.
  • A comparison of Apple finances to the finances of other players.
  • A discussion of mobile generated network traffic.
  • Forecasts for Mobile Traffic.
  • Forecasts for Apple device generated traffic.
  • Discussion of and forecast for Apple Strategies.
  • Description of the total telecommunications marketplace with an emphasis on Apple's place in it.
  • Discussion of and forecast for the strategies of other major players.
  • Discussion of and forecasts for other (other than mobile) sources of Internet traffic.
  • Appendixes to help understand traffic nomenclature, and concepts.

Table of Contents

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

  • The Lightwave Network
  • The Lightwave Series of Reports
  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

Apple - The Eye of the Storm

Introduction

Impact of Samsung Court Victory

Apple History

Apple - A Financial Giant

  • Current Assets
  • Net Income

The "Storm" - Mobile Data Traffic

  • Mobile Devices
  • Apple's Role in Mobile Device Traffic
  • Apple Traffic Summary
  • Forecast for Apple Generated Traffic

Market History

  • Post-merger Competition
  • RBOC Purchase of IXCs
  • RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
  • RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
  • RBOC Loss of Main Lines
  • It's a Wireless Access Industry!
  • The Wireless Access Landscape
  • Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

Recent History - The Super Competitors

  • Update on the "Super-Competitors"

Strategies of the Major Players

  • Apple Strategies
  • Other Major Player Strategies
  • Google Strategies
  • Management and Financial Items
  • Network Items
  • Summary and Forecast of Google Strategies
  • Options for Google
  • Verizon Strategies
  • Management and Financial Items
  • Network Items
  • Summary and Forecast of Verizon Strategies
  • AT&T Strategies
  • Management and Financial Items
  • Network Items
  • Summary and Forecast of AT&T Strategies
  • Comments on the Strategies of the Major Competitors

Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet

  • Total Network Traffic
  • Nomenclature

Major Traffic Sources

Summary

  • Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
  • High-Speed Access Lines (xDSL and Cable Modems)
  • Traffic Forecast for High-Speed Users
  • Dial-Up Traffic

AAA Traffic

Mobile Traffic

Total Internet Traffic

  • International Traffic
  • VoIP Traffic

Other Data Networks

  • Private Line Networks
  • Voice Traffic
  • Total Network Traffic
  • IPTV
  • Four Other (Non-IPTV) Sources of Traffic
  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines
  • Dial-up Traffic
  • AAA Traffic
  • Mobile Traffic
  • Total Internet Traffic Forecast
  • Lightwave Network
  • Network Location of Internet Traffic
  • Internet Traffic Forecast
  • Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network
  • International Traffic
  • Network Location of International Traffic
  • Forecast for International Traffic
  • VoIP Traffic
  • Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
  • Forecast for VoIP Traffic
  • Other Data Networks
  • Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Forecast for Other Network Traffic
  • Private Line Networks
  • Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Forecast for Private Line Traffic
  • Voice Traffic
  • Location of Voice Traffic
  • Forecast for Voice Traffic

Appendix I, Traffic Statistics Relationships

Appendix II, Data Traffic Fundamentals

  • Internet Traffic Calculations
  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Statistical Multiplexing
  • Peaking
  • Summary of Concepts

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Market Capitalizations
  • Figure 3: Current Asset Comparison
  • Figure 4: Net Income Comparison
  • Figure 5: Mobile Traffic
  • Figure 6: Internet Traffic Components
  • Figure 7: Forecast for Apple Generated Traffic
  • Figure 8: Summary of Competitive Position, Pre-Mergers
  • Figure 9: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
  • Figure 10: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
  • Figure 11: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
  • Figure 12: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
  • Figure 13: Verizon Wireline vs. Wireless Revenues
  • Figure 14: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Wireline Revenue
  • Figure 15: Wireline Customers vs. Wireline Total Revenue
  • Figure 16: FiOS vs. Uverse Services
  • Figure 17: FiOS vs. Uverse Quarterly Additions
  • Figure 18: Wireless Competition
  • Figure 19: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
  • Figure 20: The Super Competitors
  • Figure 21: Google as a Serious Threat
  • Figure 22: Comparison of Net Income - Including Apple and Microsoft
  • Figure 23: New Super Competitors Chart
  • Figure 24: Google Strategies
  • Figure 25: Verizon Strategies
  • Figure 26: AT&T Strategies
  • Figure 27: Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
  • Figure 28: Internet Traffic Formula
  • Figure 29: Total Traffic Compared to IPTV
  • Figure 30: Data Traffic from Major Sources - NO IPTV
  • Figure 31: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic (no IPTV)
  • Figure 32: Dial-up Lines Forecast
  • Figure 33: Dial-Up Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 34: High-Speed vs. Dial-Up Traffic
  • Figure 35: Ratio of High-Speed Traffic to AAA per Line Traffic
  • Figure 36: AAA Line Forecast
  • Figure 37: AAA Traffic
  • Figure 38: Mobile Traffic
  • Figure 39: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 40: Network Location - Internet Traffic
  • Figure 41: Internet Total Traffic Forecast
  • Figure 42: Internet Traffic Change over Time
  • Figure 43: Network Location of International Traffic
  • Figure 44: International Traffic
  • Figure 45: Location of VoIP Traffic
  • Figure 46: VoIP Traffic
  • Figure 47: Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Figure 48: Other Data Networks
  • Figure 49: Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Figure 50: Private Line Networks
  • Figure 51: Location of Voice Traffic
  • Figure 52: Voice Traffic
  • Figure 53: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Figure 54: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Figure 55: Multiples of Byte
  • Figure 56: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Figure 57: Summary of Concepts
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