市場調査レポート

通信機器市場(2011年):市場予測および ROADM・DWDM・スイッチ・ルーター技術

Telecom Equipment 2011: Market Forecasts and Technologies for ROADMs, DWDM, Switches and Routers

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出版日 ページ情報 英文
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通信機器市場(2011年):市場予測および ROADM・DWDM・スイッチ・ルーター技術 Telecom Equipment 2011: Market Forecasts and Technologies for ROADMs, DWDM, Switches and Routers
出版日: 2011年07月04日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

現在、キャリアはネットワークとサービスを統合する必要性に迫られています。統合は、DWDM、IP、次世代SONETおよび光スイッチなど次世代の要素に基づいていますが、何よりROADM、DWDMおよびIPに基づいています。統合は全体的なネットワークをより柔軟で、より信頼でき、労働集約性を低くすることを目指しています。

当レポートでは、主要なネットワークインフラ機器の市場および技術について調査し、市場で優位を占める通信機器(ROADM・DWDM・スイッチ・ルーター)に関するレビューから、世界および北米における各通信機器の2017年までの予測を提供しており、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

目次

  • 目次
  • 図表
  • 光波ネットワークレポートシリーズ
  • 光波ネットワーク
  • 光波シリーズレポート
  • イントロダクション
  • 従来型のネットワーク
  • 経済的背景
  • トラフィック予測
  • インターネットトラフィック予測へのアプローチ
  • 総ネットワークトラフィック
  • 総トラフィック予測:IPTV除く
  • 総トラフィック予測:IPTV含む
  • インターネットの成長
  • ROADM
  • ROADMの定義
  • ROADMの種類
  • エッジ用ROADMのアプリケーション
  • ROADM予測
  • ROADMシステム:米国の予測
  • 世界市場の予測
  • DWDM
  • システムのコンポー年t
  • メトロDWDM
  • メトロDWDMとは?
  • メトロDWDMを使用する理由は?
  • DWDMの種類:40・100Gbpsチャンネル
  • DWDM予測
  • スイッチ
  • IPスイッチ
  • スイッチ予測
  • ルーター
  • ルーターの歴史
  • 従来のルーターのアプリケーション
  • ルーター予測
  • 技術
  • 基本的な技術
  • 一般的な技術
  • 基本技術のレビュー
  • 各技術の特徴のサマリー
  • プロトコル
  • ルーターのソフトウェア
  • ルーターのプロトコル
  • ベンダー
  • システムベンダーのリスト

図表

目次

This report investigates the market and technologies for major items of network infrastructure. We will do this by reviewing the markets for several dominant types of telecommunications equipment: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers, and Switches. From this review, the report provides North American and World Forecasts for each type of equipment through 2017.

Today's carriers have a pressing need to integrate networks and services. This integration is being based on elements like next-generation DWDM, IP, next-generation SONET, and optical switches - but more than anything else, it is based on ROADMs, DWDM, and IP. The integration is directed at making the total network more flexible, more reliable, and less labor-intensive. The main market driver for ROADMs is the desire of the carriers to save operating expenses. The new video thrusts by the major combined RBOCs provide a new driver for ROADM/DWDM deployment. These companies are in the process (close to complete) of deploying nationwide networks to deliver video on their fiber access local networks. ROADMs and DWDM are the perfect adaptation to enable and control these video distribution services. In addition, the forecasted increase in wavelength services is going to greatly facilitate the deployment of networks.

As these new networks have overwhelmingly become IP and/or Ethernet based, the role of routers and switches has also increased. All the new delivery networks (e.g., FiOS and U-verse) are based on IP delivery of triple-play services. These networks make extensive use of routers and switches.

It has been five years since our last network equipment market forecast. We have published several reports in the interim concerning various parts of the network (ROADMs, high-speed access, etc.), but we have not updated our view of the total telecom equipment markets in over five years. In that time, many things have occurred that dramatically influence that market. Our recent report, “North American Traffic Forecast - 2011”, noted the following changes in traffic that are the fundamental driver of all equipment requirements:

  • The dramatic rise in traffic from Advanced Access Architecture (AAA) lines (FTTP and FTTN);
  • The startling increase in IPTV traffic;
  • The increase in popularity of using mobile devices, and especially using them for data-intensive applications;
  • The increase in overseas traffic, especially from the booming economies of the Far East;
  • The relative decline (in the period of this forecast) of high-speed access lines and the traffic from them. This includes xDSL lines and cable modems.

In addition to the changes in traffic sources, patterns, and absolute quantity, there are many changes that have taken place in the economic infrastructure of the market. Perhaps the most important is the recession of the late 2000s and the slow recover that is now occurring in 2011. Also, the carrier industry has greatly consolidated so that now two major players (AT&T and Verizon) dominate the network in every way - much as the old AT&T did, maybe even more so.

Existing Networks

The existing IXC networks, at almost every level, are conglomerates of various generations and types of technologies. To an extent, this has always been the case, but now it is more so than ever, because of the timing of the telecom burst (1999-2000) and the relatively recent acquisitions of the major IXCs by the RBOCs. Telcos (and others) were just in the beginning stages of implementing the new optical technologies (DWDM, optical switches, M-DWDM) when the burst occurred. We still have "stacked SONET" residing alongside DWDM, and, in some cases those are alongside some version of "god boxes," and maybe enhanced SONET. Capital constraints prevented the initiation of any real replacement program for the older technologies. In addition, while we were in a deep freeze as to investment, technology and product advancements continued. Capital started loosening up in late 2004. The years since - especially from 2004 through 2007 - brought an even greater loosening of the capital strings, and this continues in 2011 with the slow recovery from the 2008 recession. However, in spite of a return to much freer capital, there is still strong pressure for profitability, demanding expense containment.

In addition to the telecom burst and the resulting capital constraint that delayed updating of the IXC networks, the early days of 2005 brought a spate of acquisitions (SBC-AT&T and Verizon-MCI) that have all but eliminated the independent IXC business. The later merger announcement of AT&T and BellSouth served to accentuate the trend. While these mergers offer many economies of scale, they also bring together existing, disparate networks. Now these two companies (AT&T/SBC and Verizon) are in the process of integrating their own long-haul assets with the newly acquired ones, and integration of their metro facilities with the long-haul to allow seamless customer access. They are seeking operational efficiencies and the elimination of duplication.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

Existing Networks

Economic Background

Traffic Forecast

Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet

Total Network Traffic

Traffic Forecasts Total Network Traffic - No IPTV

Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV

Growth of the Internet

ROADMs

Defining ROADMs

Types of ROADMs

  • Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization
  • Summary of ROADM Types by Generation
  • Summary of ROADM Description

Edge ROADM Applications

  • Telcos
  • Cable Companies

ROADM Forecast

ROADM Systems - US Forecast

  • US Edge ROADMs
  • US Market Forecast

World Market Forecast

DWDM

Components of a DWDM System

  • Physical Components

Metro DWDM

  • IXC

What is Metro DWDM?

Why use Metro DWDM?

  • Reasons for Metro DWDM Implementation
    • “Plant Extension” Reasons
    • Fiber/Duct Exhaust
    • Obsolete Electronics
    • New Wire Center Development
    • Comparative Economics of OC-48 + DWDM vs. OC-192
    • Competitive Reasons

Types of DWDM - 40 and 100 Gbps Channels

DWDM Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World DWDM Forecast

Switches

  • Switch Types
    • TDM Switches
    • ATM
    • DACS
      • Drivers to DACS Deployment
    • OXCs
    • The Parallel Universe of OXCs

IP Switches

Switch Forecast

  • North American Switch Forecast
  • World Switch Forecast

Routers

Routers' History

  • Why Use Routers?
  • Traditional Router Technology

Traditional Router Applications

Router Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World Router Forecast

Technologies

Underlying Technologies

General Technologies

  • MEMS
  • Grating Light Valve (GLV)
  • Planar Lightwave Circuits
  • Liquid Crystal
  • Fiber Bragg Grating

Review of Basic Technologies

  • OEO
  • MEMS
    • Two Approaches to MEMS
      • Digital Approach
      • Analog Approach
  • LCD
  • Bubbles (Inkjet) - Planer Lightwave Circuits
  • 1 D Technology

Summary of Characteristics of Each Technology

  • Comparison of Transparent and Opaque Switches

Protocols

Router Software

  • Basic Transmission Protocols: SONET, ATM, IP
    • SONET
    • ATM
    • IP
  • Why Are the Differences Among these Protocols Important?
    • Type of Transmission
    • Cell Tax
    • Class of Transmission
  • Summary of Protocol Characteristics

Routers' Protocols

  • Dynamic Routing Protocols
  • Quality of Service (QoS) Protocols
  • Quality of Service (QoS) Protocols
    • Diffserv
    • MPLS

Vendors

Vendors

System Vendor Listing

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Avvio Networks
  • Ciena
  • Cisco
  • ECI
  • Ericsson
  • Fujitsu
  • Infinera
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton - Now Xtera
  • Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
  • Meriton Networks
  • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
  • NEC America Inc.
  • Nistica
  • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
  • Nortel
  • OpVista Inc.
  • Tellabs
  • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Lightwave Network
  • Figure 2: Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
  • Figure 3: Internet Traffic Formula
  • Figure 4: Total Traffic Forecast (No IPTV)
  • Figure 5: Growth Rate - All Traffic - No IPTV
  • Figure 6: Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV
  • Figure 7: Backbone Growth Rates (Includes IPTV)
  • Figure 8: All Traffic Components with IPTV
  • Figure 9: Total Traffic Forecast and Growth Rate with IPTV
  • Figure 10: Internet Components Forecast
  • Figure 11: ROADM General Configuration
  • Figure 12: Summary of ROADM Types by Utilization
  • Figure 13: Four Generations of ROADMs
  • Figure 14: ROADMs across the Network
  • Figure 15: Example of Edge ROADM Application - Telco
  • Figure 16: Example of Edge ROADM used by Cable Company
  • Figure 17: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
  • Figure 18: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
  • Figure 19: US Edge ROADMs Systems
  • Figure 20: Price Forecast for ROADMs
  • Figure 21: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
  • Figure 22: ROADM Market - US - By Technology
  • Figure 23: World ROADM Systems by Type
  • Figure 24: World ROADM Market
  • Figure 25: World ROADM Market by Types
  • Figure 26: Typical DWDM Layout
  • Figure 27: Metro DWDM Typical Layout
  • Figure 28: Metro DWDM System Characteristics
  • Figure 29: North American DWM System Ends
  • Figure 30: North American DWDM Market
  • Figure 31: US DWDM Forecast by Channel Speed
  • Figure 32: DWDM - World Forecast - System Ends
  • Figure 33: DWDM World Market Forecast
  • Figure 34: DWDM World Forecast by Speed
  • Figure 35: North American Switch Market Forecast
  • Figure 36: North American Switches - Units Forecast
  • Figure 37: World Switch Market
  • Figure 38: World Switches - Units
  • Figure 39: Router Layout
  • Figure 40: Router Applications
  • Figure 41: North American Routers - Total - Units
  • Figure 42: North American Routers Total Market
  • Figure 43: North American Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 44: World Router Forecast - Units
  • Figure 45: World Router Market - Total
  • Figure 46: World Router Market - By Types
  • Figure 47: MEMS Layout
  • Figure 48: Sketch of Two Dimensional MEMS
  • Figure 49: Sketch of Multi-Dimensional MEMS
  • Figure 50: Sketch of Liquid Crystal Technology
  • Figure 51: Sketch of Bubble Technology
  • Figure 52: Characteristics of Each Technology
  • Figure 53: OSI Model
  • Figure 54: SONET, ATM, IP
  • Figure 55: SONET Frame
  • Figure 56: ATM Cell Structure
  • Figure 57: IP Frame Structure
  • Figure 58: Summary of Protocol Characteristics
  • Figure 59: Router Protocols
  • Figure 60: MPLS Routing
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