Telecom Equipment 2011: Market Forecasts and Technologies for ROADMs, DWDM, Switches and Routers
|発行||Information Gatekeepers Inc.||商品コード||237367|
|通信機器市場(2011年)：市場予測および ROADM・DWDM・スイッチ・ルーター技術 Telecom Equipment 2011: Market Forecasts and Technologies for ROADMs, DWDM, Switches and Routers|
|出版日: 2011年07月04日||ページ情報: 英文||
This report investigates the market and technologies for major items of network infrastructure. We will do this by reviewing the markets for several dominant types of telecommunications equipment: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers, and Switches. From this review, the report provides North American and World Forecasts for each type of equipment through 2017.
Today's carriers have a pressing need to integrate networks and services. This integration is being based on elements like next-generation DWDM, IP, next-generation SONET, and optical switches - but more than anything else, it is based on ROADMs, DWDM, and IP. The integration is directed at making the total network more flexible, more reliable, and less labor-intensive. The main market driver for ROADMs is the desire of the carriers to save operating expenses. The new video thrusts by the major combined RBOCs provide a new driver for ROADM/DWDM deployment. These companies are in the process (close to complete) of deploying nationwide networks to deliver video on their fiber access local networks. ROADMs and DWDM are the perfect adaptation to enable and control these video distribution services. In addition, the forecasted increase in wavelength services is going to greatly facilitate the deployment of networks.
As these new networks have overwhelmingly become IP and/or Ethernet based, the role of routers and switches has also increased. All the new delivery networks (e.g., FiOS and U-verse) are based on IP delivery of triple-play services. These networks make extensive use of routers and switches.
It has been five years since our last network equipment market forecast. We have published several reports in the interim concerning various parts of the network (ROADMs, high-speed access, etc.), but we have not updated our view of the total telecom equipment markets in over five years. In that time, many things have occurred that dramatically influence that market. Our recent report, “North American Traffic Forecast - 2011”, noted the following changes in traffic that are the fundamental driver of all equipment requirements:
In addition to the changes in traffic sources, patterns, and absolute quantity, there are many changes that have taken place in the economic infrastructure of the market. Perhaps the most important is the recession of the late 2000s and the slow recover that is now occurring in 2011. Also, the carrier industry has greatly consolidated so that now two major players (AT&T and Verizon) dominate the network in every way - much as the old AT&T did, maybe even more so.
The existing IXC networks, at almost every level, are conglomerates of various generations and types of technologies. To an extent, this has always been the case, but now it is more so than ever, because of the timing of the telecom burst (1999-2000) and the relatively recent acquisitions of the major IXCs by the RBOCs. Telcos (and others) were just in the beginning stages of implementing the new optical technologies (DWDM, optical switches, M-DWDM) when the burst occurred. We still have "stacked SONET" residing alongside DWDM, and, in some cases those are alongside some version of "god boxes," and maybe enhanced SONET. Capital constraints prevented the initiation of any real replacement program for the older technologies. In addition, while we were in a deep freeze as to investment, technology and product advancements continued. Capital started loosening up in late 2004. The years since - especially from 2004 through 2007 - brought an even greater loosening of the capital strings, and this continues in 2011 with the slow recovery from the 2008 recession. However, in spite of a return to much freer capital, there is still strong pressure for profitability, demanding expense containment.
In addition to the telecom burst and the resulting capital constraint that delayed updating of the IXC networks, the early days of 2005 brought a spate of acquisitions (SBC-AT&T and Verizon-MCI) that have all but eliminated the independent IXC business. The later merger announcement of AT&T and BellSouth served to accentuate the trend. While these mergers offer many economies of scale, they also bring together existing, disparate networks. Now these two companies (AT&T/SBC and Verizon) are in the process of integrating their own long-haul assets with the newly acquired ones, and integration of their metro facilities with the long-haul to allow seamless customer access. They are seeking operational efficiencies and the elimination of duplication.