市場調査レポート

北米のネットワークトラフィック予測:2011年

North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011

発行 Information Gatekeepers Inc. 商品コード 169794
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=102.85円で換算しております。
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北米のネットワークトラフィック予測:2011年 North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011
出版日: 2011年02月22日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートは、北米地域における各種ネットワークトラフィックの推移について調査分析し、2016年までの予測をトラフィックタイプ別にまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届いたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

イントロダクション

インターネットトラフィック予測アプローチ

総ネットワークトラフィック

命名

主要トラフィックソース

IPTV

4タイプのその他(非IPTV)のトラフィックソース

  • AAAアクセスライン
  • モバイルデバイス
  • 国際
  • 高速アクセス回線

高速アクセス回線予測

  • 世帯普及率:新たな予測

高速ユーザーのトラフィック予測

高速回線トラフィック

高速回線トラフィック予測のアップデートの妥当性

高速 (xDSL・ケーブルモデム) 回線あたりの新たなトラフィック予測

高速回線(xDSL・ケーブルモデム)からの新たなインターネットトラフィック予測

ダイアルアップトラフィック

AAAトラフィック

モバイルトラフィック

総インターネットトラフィック予測

光ネットワーク

インターネットトラフィックのネットワークロケーション

インターネットトラフィック予測

バックボーンネットワークのその他のトラフィックタイプ

国際トラフィック

  • 国際トラフィックのネットワークロケーション
  • 国際トラフィック予測

VoIPトラフィック

  • VoIPトラフィックのネットワークロケーション
  • VoIPトラフィック予測

その他のデータネットワーク

  • その他のネットワークトラフィックのロケーション
  • その他のネットワークトラフィック予測

専用回線ネットワーク

  • 専用回線トラフィックのロケーション
  • 専用回線トラフィック予測

音声トラフィック

  • 音声トラフィックのロケーション
  • 音声トラフィック予測

IPTV

IPTVのグローバルアーキテクチャ

  • スーパーハブオフィス
  • ビデオハブオフィス
  • サービングオフィス

アクセス帯域ニーズとは

  • 帯域要件の影響因子

帯域要件:2012年シナリオ

トラフィック予測

総ネットワークトラフィック:非IPTV

総トラフィック予測:IPTVを含む

インターネットの成長

付録

目次

Understanding network traffic is fundamental to any marketing or business plan. This new report, “North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011,” by the Lightwave Report Series author, Clifford Holliday, provides detailed telecommunications forecasts for North America thorough 2016. It is our first traffic forecast report since Mr. Holliday' s 2006 report on this subject. That 2006 report became an instant industry classic, setting the standard for traffic forecasts for many years.

This latest report forecasts an astounding 100 Exabytes of traffic on the North American network by 2016.

Since the 2006 effort, many changes have occurred that dramatically impact the nature of network traffic. These changes, which are fully considered in this new report, include the following:

The dramatic rise in traffic from advanced access architecture (AAA) lines (FTTP and FTTN); The startling increase in IPTV traffic;

The increase in popularity of using mobile devices and especially using them for data-intensive applications - smartphones and tablets;

The increase in overseas traffic, especially from the booming economies of the Far East;

The relative decline (in the period of this forecast) of high-speed access lines and the traffic from them. This includes xDSL lines and cable modems.

“North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011” provides year-by-year forecasts for many classes of traffic, including the following:

  • High-speed access traffic
  • Dialup data traffic
  • AAA lines data traffic
  • Mobile data traffic
  • International traffic (into and out of North America)
  • VoIP traffic
  • Other data networks traffic
  • Private line traffic
  • Voice traffic
  • IPTV traffic

In addition to individual forecasts for each of the above, the report provides forecasts for total network traffic and Internet traffic, as well as the relevant growth rates.

Augmenting the very detailed discussion, there are 60 charts and figures to provide all the data on traffic necessary to achieve a full understanding of the forecasts.

Traffic quantities are of importance to anyone trying to develop market plans for telecommunications equipment and facilities. Traffic quantities and changes in growth rates are important because of their fundamental role in the following:

  • Determining the need for equipment additions by the multitude of carriers contributing to the various segments of this network of networks

Supporting facility additions (fiber and fiber routes)

Requiring additions to cable company networks for high-speed data; " Defining the need for higher-speed accesses and all the equipment associated with providing that extra speed

Supporting the ever-increasing need for safety of data, continuity of service, and privacy of data ; Suggesting the growing value of advertising and similar activities on the Internet

The author provides copious information in the Appendixes to allow telecommunications professionals - even those not schooled in traffic forecasting - to understand the terminology and concepts.

Table of Contents

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

Executive Summary

  • Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
  • High-speed Access Lines (xDSL and Cable Modems)
  • Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users
  • Dialup Traffic
  • Advanced Access Architecture (AAA) Traffic
  • Mobile Traffic
  • Total Internet Traffic
  • International Traffic
  • VoIP Traffic
  • Other Data Networks
  • Private Line Networks
  • Voice Traffic
  • Total Network Traffic
  • Appendices

Introduction

Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet

Total Network Traffic

Nomenclature

Major Traffic Sources

IPTV

Four Other (Non-IPTV) Sources of Traffic

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • High-speed Access Lines
  • High-speed Access Lines

High-speed Access Lines Forecast

  • Household Penetration - New Forecast

Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users

High-speed Line Traffic

Rationale for Updating the Traffic Forecast High-speed Lines

New High-speed (xDSL and Cable Modem) per-line Traffic Forecast

  • Change to 75% of BH to Average

Components of BH Traffic Change Over Time

New Internet Traffic Forecast from High-speed Lines (xDSL and Cable Modem)

Dialup Traffic

AAA Traffic

Mobile Traffic

Total Internet Traffic Forecast

Lightwave Network

Network Location of Internet Traffic

Internet Traffic Forecast

Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network

International Traffic

  • Network Location of International Traffic
  • Forecast for International Traffic

VoIP Traffic

  • Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
  • Forecast for VoIP Traffic

Other Data Networks

  • Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Forecast for Other Network Traffic

Private Line Networks

  • Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Forecast for Private Line Traffic

Voice Traffic

  • Location of Voice Traffic
  • Forecast for Voice Traffic

IPTV

IPTV Global Architecture

  • Super Hub Office
  • Video Hub Office
  • Serving Offices

What are the Access Bandwidth Needs?

  • Drivers of Bandwidth Requirements

Bandwidth Requirements - 2012 Scenario

Traffic Forecasts

Total Network Traffic - No IPTV

Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV

Growth of the Internet

Appendix I: Traffic Statistics Relationships

Appendix II: Data Traffic Fundamentals

Internet Traffic Calculations

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Statistical Multiplexing
  • Peaking
  • Summary of Concepts

Table of Figures

  • Fig.01: Lightwave Network
  • Fig. 02: Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
  • Fig. 03: Internet Traffic Formula
  • Fig. 04: Total Traffic Compared to IPTV
  • Fig. 05: Data Traffic from Major Sources - No IPTV
  • Fig. 06: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic - No IPTV
  • Fig. 07: New High-speed Access Forecast
  • Fig. 08: High-speed Lines Forecasts - All Types
  • Fig. 09: High-speed Access Household Penetration Rate - New Forecast
  • Fig. 10: BH High-speed per Line Usage - Old Forecast
  • Fig. 11: New Forecast for Per-line Traffic
  • Fig. 12: Components of New Forecast for per Line Usage in BH
  • Fig. 13: Components of the Total per-line BH Traffic Estimates
  • Fig. 14: Changes in per-line BH Usage Components
  • Fig. 15: File Sharing Component Decomposition
  • Fig. 16: File Sharing Components - 2006
  • Fig. 17: File Sharing Components in 2010
  • Fig. 18: File Sharing Components Change Over Time
  • Fig. 19: Internet Traffic Formula
  • Fig. 20: Forecast for Internet Traffic from High-speed Accesses
  • Fig. 21: Dialup Lines Forecast
  • Fig. 22: Dialup Traffic Forecast
  • Fig. 23: High-speed vs. Dialup Traffic
  • Fig. 24: Ratio of High-speed Traffic to AAA per Line Traffic
  • Fig. 25: AAA Line Forecast
  • Fig. 26: AAA Traffic
  • Fig. 27: Mobile Traffic
  • Fig. 28: Lightwave Network
  • Fig. 29: Network Location - Internet Traffic
  • Fig. 30: Internet Total Traffic Forecast
  • Fig. 31: Internet Traffic Change over Time
  • Fig. 32: Network Location of International Traffic
  • Fig. 33: International Traffic
  • Fig. 34: Location of VoIP Traffic
  • Fig. 35: VoIP Traffic
  • Fig. 36: Location of Other Network Traffic
  • Fig. 37: Other Data Networks
  • Fig. 38: Location of Private Line Traffic
  • Fig. 39: Private Line Networks
  • Fig. 40: Location of Voice Traffic
  • Fig. 41: Voice Traffic
  • Fig. 42: IPTV Global Architecture
  • Fig. 43: Drivers of Access Bandwidth Requirements
  • Fig. 44: Usage Scenario - 2012
  • Fig. 45: 2012 Bandwidth Requirements
  • Fig. 46: Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2012
  • Fig. 47: Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
  • Fig. 48: Total Traffic Forecast - No IPTV
  • Fig. 49: Growth Rate - All Traffic - No IPTV
  • Fig. 50: Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV
  • Fig. 51: Backbone Growth Rates - Including IPTV
  • Fig. 52: All Traffic Components - Including IPTV
  • Fig. 53: Total Traffic Forecast and Growth Rate - Including IPTV
  • Fig. 54: Internet Components Forecast
  • Fig. 55: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
  • Fig. 56: Traffic/Speed Relationships
  • Fig. 57: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
  • Fig. 58: Multiples of ByteFig. 59: New Transfer Rate Forecast
  • Fig. 60: Summary of Concepts
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