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新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19):疫学分析・予測(2020年5月)

Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - May 2020

出版日: | 発行: GlobalData | ページ情報: 英文 36 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

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新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19):疫学分析・予測(2020年5月)
出版日: 2020年05月30日
発行: GlobalData
ページ情報: 英文 36 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
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本レポートは最新情報反映のため適宜更新し、内容構成変更を行う場合があります。ご検討の際はお問い合わせください。
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  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) は2019年12月に中国の武漢で最初に報告され、現在では世界187か国で846,200例を超える感染者数が確認されています。米国、およびイタリア、スペイン、ベルギーなどの欧州のいくつかの国では、日ごとの感染者数の減少が続いています。ロシア、ブラジル、ラテンアメリカの国々では増加傾向にあります。インドでは早期に厳格な対策が取られましたが、新規感染者数の増加がみられます。

当レポートでは、新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) の疫学面を調査し、感染者数の推移・見通し、地域・国別の状況、特定の人口層に関する考察などをまとめています。

目次

第1章 現在の疫学的状況

  • 現在の疫学的状況
  • 感染者の多い主要10カ国の新規症例

第2章 主要市場の予測

  • 主要国の感染のピークと減少の予測
  • 主要国の流行曲線・予測

第3章 特定の人口層

  • 幼児:重篤な転帰を伴う全身性マルチシステム症候群を引き起こす可能性
  • 小児期の定期予防接種率の低下
  • 妊婦への影響は不明
  • PTSDの有病率増加の可能性
  • オピオイド中毒合併症:疾患管理の課題

第4章 注目の地域

  • 英国:7月中旬までの完全な回復は期待できない
  • イラン:感染者増加の第2波は制限解除が早急であったためと思われる
  • 中国:別のクラスターの発生・北部で再度ロックダウン
  • 日本:急増を抑えたが今後第2波の可能性もある
  • 米国・欧州:第2波に様相はアジアとは異なって見え、検出が困難

第5章 データの制約

第6章 付録

図表

List of Tables

  • Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation
  • Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries
  • Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)​

List of Figures

  • Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case​
  • Figure 2. US Age-Specific Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (N), All Ages, Men and Women, May 2020
  • Figure 3. Michigan, US*Childhood Vaccination Rates (%), Ages 5 Months, Boys and Girls, 2016-2020
  • Figure 4. 16MM, Women in Third Trimester Pregnancies (N), Ages 15-44 Years, 2020
  • Figure 5. 7MM, PTSD 12-Month Total Prevalence (Pre-Pandemic) (%), Ages ≥18 Years, Men and Women, 2018
  • Figure 6. US, Australia, Germany, 12-Month Total Prevalence of OUD (Pre-Pandemic) (%), Ages ≥18 Years, Men and Women, 2018
  • Figure 7. UK, Modeled Forecast of COVID-19 Trajectory of New Cases
  • Figure 8. Iran, New Cases of COVID-19 Feb 27, 2020 - May 27, 2020
  • Figure 9. Mainland China, New Cases of COVID-19 Apr 25, 2020 - May 27, 2020
  • Figure 10. Japan, Modeled Forecast of COVID-19 Trajectory of New Cases*
  • Figure 11. Mainland China and Japan, COVID-19 Daily New Cases (N) in Past Month
  • Figure 12. US and UK, COVID-19 Daily New Cases (N) in Past Month
目次
Product Code: GDHCHT116

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time, and highlights important populations and regions most affected by the outbreak.

The report covers current epidemiology situation, forecast, and analysis of COVID-19 in May 2020, including forecast for key markets.The report will be updated on a monthly basis.

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 187 countries worldwide. The US and several countries in Europe such as Italy, Spain, and Belgium have continued to see a decrease in daily cases. Russia, Brazil, and Latin American countries are seeing increasing trends. India has also seen an increase in the number of new cases reported despite strict distancing measures taken early on.

Special populations analysis covered in the report include the following -

  • COVID-19 in children may result in systemic multisystem syndrome with severe outcomes.
  • Childhood routine vaccination rates drop during pandemic.
  • COVID-19's impact in pregnant women unclear, though most cases are asymptomatic.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic could cause an increase in the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
  • Complications of opioid addiction will be challenging for the management of disease during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Region focus analysis covered in the report include the following -

  • The UK is not expected to reach full recovery until mid-July at earliest.
  • A second surge in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran is likely due to lifting restrictions too early.
  • Mainland China experienced another cluster, government response is swift.
  • Japan quickly stamped out the recent COVID-19 surge, but more surges are likely in the future.
  • US and EU markets recovery will be longer than Asian markets, and it will be difficult to detect surges

Data limitations -

  • Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries.*
  • All countries' reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people.
  • Mortality reporting is not standardized.
  • Antibody testing has limitations in accuracy and usefulness.

Scope

  • The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, special populations most impacted by COVID-19, regional focus and analysis of COVID-19 impact, and data limitations.

Reasons to Buy

  • Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19 and analysis of up-to-date new research and insights.

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Contents

1 Current Epidemiology Situation

  • 1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation
  • 1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries

2 Forecast for Key Markets

  • 2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries
  • 2.2 Epidemic Curves and Projections for Select Countries

3 Special Populations

  • 3.1 COVID-19 in Children May Result in Systemic Multisystem Syndrome with Severe Outcomes
  • 3.2 Childhood Routine Vaccination Rates Drop During Pandemic
  • 3.3 COVID-19 Impact on Pregnant Women Unclear
  • 3.4 COVID-19 Pandemic Could Cause an Increase in Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
  • 3.5 Complications of Opioid Addiction Will Be Challenging for Management of Disease During COVID-19 Pandemic

4 Region Focus

  • 4.1 UK Not Expected to Reach Full Recovery Until Mid-July at Earliest
  • 4.2 Second Surge in Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Iran Is Likely Due to Lifting Restrictions Too Early
  • 4.3 Mainland China Experienced Another Cluster, Northern China in Lockdown Again
  • 4.4 Japan Quickly Stamped Out the Recent COVID-19 Surge, but More Surges Are Likely in the Future
  • 4.5 Resurgences in US and Europe Will Look Different from Asian Markets and Will Be Harder to Detect

5. Data limitations

  • 5.1 Drawbacks to Available Data

6 Appendix

  • 6.1 Methodology
  • 6.2 Abbreviations
  • 6.3 Related Reports
  • 6.4 Sources
  • 6.5 About the Authors
  • 6.6 About GlobalData
  • 6.7 Contact Us
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