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EpiCast Report:デング熱の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Dengue - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 301410
出版日 ページ情報 英文 42 Pages
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EpiCast Report:デング熱の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Dengue - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
出版日: 2014年05月05日 ページ情報: 英文 42 Pages
概要

デング熱は、フラビウイルス(一本鎖プラスRNAウイルスの一種)により引き起こされる熱病で、そのほとんどがネッタイシマカ(Aedes aegypti)により媒介されます。デング熱は人間に感染する節足動物媒介疾患の中で最も一般的なものの一つです。デング熱の重症度は、無症候性に留まる場合から、典型的なデング熱、さらにはデング出血熱(DHF)・デングショック症候群(DSS)まで、多岐にわたっています。世界の主要5ヶ国で検査の結果確認・報告されたデング熱の年間発症件数は、2009〜2013年(平均値)には339,104件、2023年には339,104件に達する(年平均成長率(CAGR)は1.13%)と予想されています。そのうち、ブラジルが全体のほぼ半数の発症件数を抱えています(2023年段階で207,000件)。新たな長期休眠型の血清型の出現が、今後の感染拡大の促進要因となるものと思われます。

当レポートでは、世界の主要5ヶ国(ブラジル・インド・メキシコ・シンガポール・タイ)におけるデング熱の発症状況や今後の見通しについて分析し、疾患の特徴(リスク要因や主な共存症など)や世界各国での動向、現在の有病者の発症状況、今後10年間の発症・有病件数の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果を概略以下の内容でお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

  • 概要
  • 近日刊行の関連調査

第3章 疫学

  • 疾患の背景
  • リスク要因と共存症
  • 世界的な傾向
    • 有病者数と世界各地の分布状況
    • デング熱の周期的・季節的パターン
    • デング熱の血清型
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 利用しなかった情報源
    • 予測の前提条件と手法:
  • デング熱の疫学予測(今後11年間分)
    • 検査で確認され、報告された発症件数
    • 検査で確認され、報告された発症件数(年齢別)
    • 検査で確認され、報告された発症件数(男女別)
    • 検査で確認され、報告された発症件数(年齢調整済み)
  • 議論
    • 疫学的な予測に関する結論
    • 分析の限界
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

目次
Product Code: GDHCER062

Dengue fever is a febrile illness caused by a single-stranded flavirius most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue fever is one of the most prevalent arthropod-borne diseases affecting humans. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to DHF or DSS.

GlobalData epidemiologists sourced government-based publications for the forecast of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in the 5MM will increase from an annual average of 304,608 cases from 2009-2013 to 339,104 cases in 2023 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.13%. Brazil will have almost half the number of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue cases among the 5MM throughout the forecast period (207,000 cases in 2023). GlobalData epidemiologists believe that introductions of new or long-dormant dengue serotypes would be a significant driver in disease transmission in the 5MM during the next 10 years.

This report is based on laboratory-confirmed dengue cases reported by the national surveillance systems of the 5MM. Therefore, it should be used with the understanding that reported cases are a function of the dengue case burden in the country as well as the type and capacity of the dengue surveillance system.

This report provide a comprehensive analysis of dengue fever epidemiology in the 5MM, incorporating risk factors, disease burden, outbreak periodicity, serotype circulation pattern, regional variations in disease pattern, and age- and sex-specific distribution. The analysis is based on strong sources, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases. GlobalData epidemiologists supplemented the national-level surveillance data with peer-reviewed regional studies. The analysis was also conducted using consistent methodology across the 5MM, thereby allowing meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers.

Scope

  • The Dengue EpiCast Report provides an overview of the dengue fever risk factors and comorbidities, global and historical epidemiology trends, and circulating serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in five major markets (5MM) (Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases of dengue fever (including classic dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)) for the 5MM. The reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases are segmented by sex and age (<1 year, 1 year, 2-14 years, 15-44 years, 45-64 years, and =65 years).
  • The dengue epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 5MM.

Reasons to buy

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global dengue market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global dengue market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for dengue pharmaceutical products in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

1. Table of Contents

  • 1.1. List of Tables
  • 1.2. List of Figures

2. Introduction

  • 2.1. Catalyst
  • 2.2. Upcoming Reports

3. Epidemiology

  • 3.1. Disease Background
  • 3.2. Risk Factors and Comorbidities
  • 3.3. Global Trends
    • 3.3.1. Incidence and Geographic Distribution
    • 3.3.2. Dengue Periodic and Seasonal Patterns
    • 3.3.3. Dengue Serotypes
  • 3.4. Forecast Methodology
    • 3.4.1. Sources Used
    • 3.4.2. Sources Not Used
    • 3.4.3. Forecast Assumptions and Methods
  • 3.5. Epidemiological Forecast of Dengue (2013-2023)
    • 3.5.1. Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases
    • 3.5.2. Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases
    • 3.5.3. Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases
    • 3.5.4. Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue
  • 3.6. Discussion
    • 3.6.1. Epidemiological Forecast Insight
    • 3.6.2. Limitations of the Analysis
    • 3.6.3. Strengths of the Analysis

4. Appendix

  • 4.1. Bibliography
  • 4.2. About the Authors
    • 4.2.1. Epidemiologists
    • 4.2.2. Reviewers
    • 4.2.3. Global Director of Epidemiology
    • 4.2.4. Global Head of Healthcare
  • 4.3. About GlobalData
  • 4.4. About EpiCast
  • 4.5. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors for Dengue Fever and Severe Dengue Fever (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Dengue Shock Syndrome)
  • Table 2: Periodicity and Seasonality of Dengue Fever in the 5MM, 2003-2013
  • Table 3: 5MM, Circulating Dengue Virus Serotypes and Predominant Serotype, 2003-2013
  • Table 4: 5MM, Sources of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Fever Data
  • Table 5: 5MM, Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, N (Col %), Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2009-2023
  • Table 6: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013
  • Table 7: 5MM, Age-Specific Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 5MM, Incidence Rate (Cases per 100,000 Population) of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases (Including Classic Dengue Fever and DHF), Men and Women, All Ages, 2003-2013
  • Figure 2: 5MM, Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, All Ages, 2014-2023
  • Figure 3: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013
  • Figure 4: 5MM, Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, Annual Average 2009-2013
  • Figure 5: 5MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013
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