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EpiCast Report:非小細胞肺癌(NSCLC)の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 268834
出版日 ページ情報 英文 67 Pages
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EpiCast Report:非小細胞肺癌(NSCLC)の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
出版日: 2016年11月11日 ページ情報: 英文 67 Pages
概要

世界の主要9ヶ国における非小細胞肺癌(NSCLC)の発症件数は、2012年の103万件から、2022年には126万件にまで拡大する(年間平均増加率2.2%)と予想されています。特に中国では、発症件数が55万件(2012年)から69万件(2022年)にまで増加すると推計されています。インドや日本でも今後10年間で発症件数が大きく増加するものと思われます。発症率増加の要因としては、高齢者人口の増加や喫煙者の増大、環境リスク要因の増加が挙げられます。

当レポートでは、世界の主要国における非小細胞肺癌(NSCLC)の発症状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、疾患の特徴や、現在の罹患・普及状況、今後10年間の発症件数の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果を概略以下の内容でお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

  • 概況
  • 関連調査

第3章 疫学

  • リスク要因と共存症
    • 喫煙者は非喫煙者よりも肺癌に感染しやすい
    • ラドンへの長期的被爆は肺癌リスクを高める
    • 各種がんの家族歴は、肺癌リスクの増大につながる
    • 結核(TB)は肺癌の感染リスク・死亡率を高める
    • COPD(慢性閉塞性肺疾患):肺癌の生存率低下につながる共存症
    • 肺癌検査プログラムは必ずしも有益ではない
    • 診断の段階が、肺癌の生存率に大きく影響する
  • 世界各国の動向
    • 米国
    • フランス
    • ドイツ
    • イタリア
    • スペイン
    • 英国
    • 日本
    • 中国
    • インド
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 利用しなかった情報源
    • 予測の仮定・手法
  • 疫学的予測:今後10年間分
    • 発症率(全体)
    • 発症率(年齢層別)
    • 発症率(男女別)
    • 年齢調整された発症率
    • NSCLCの発症事例の分類
  • 議論
    • 分析の限界
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: GDHCER132-16

Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissues. It is one of the most commonly occurring cancers in the world (IARC, 2016). Lung cancer is classified into three main types: non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer, and lung carcinoid tumor. NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer, making up about 85% of all lung cancers. Small cell lung cancer accounts for 10-15% of lung cancers, while carcinoid tumors are the rarest, occurring in fewer than 5% of lung cancers (ACS, 2016).

In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 791,563 cases in 2015 to 1,069,516 cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 3.51% per year. In the five major European markets (5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 172,998 cases in 2015 to 194,435 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 1.24%.

In 2015, there were 1,199,845 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in the 8MM, which is expected to increase to 1,626,132 cases by 2025, at an AGR of 3.55%. Among the 8MM, China had the highest number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in 2015 and 2025, at 439,438 cases and 708,530 cases, respectively, and will have the highest growth in the 8MM at an AGR of 6.12%.

The relative survival of NSCLC varies by subtype, where adenocarcinoma has the highest survival, followed by squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma. In the alternate forecast, due to the forecast increase in adenocarcinoma during 2015-2025, epidemiologists expect an increase in relative survival and, consequently, an increase in the number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC.

The report “EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025” provides an overview of the risk factors and the global and historical trends for NSCLC in the eight major markets (8MM): US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China (urban). It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in these markets from 2015-2025. The incident cases are further segmented by sex and age (18-39 years, 40-59 years, 60-79 years, and 80 years and older), cancer stage at diagnosis (IA, IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, and IV), cancer histology subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and other). Moreover, this report provides an alternate forecast scenario that takes into account potential changes in the diagnosed incident cases distribution by histology subtype. The alternate forecast also examines the impact of potential changes in histology subtypes on the 10-year epidemiology forecast of the five-year prevalent cases of NSCLC from 2015-2025.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5

  • 1.1 List of Tables 7
  • 1.2 List of Figures 8

2 Epidemiology 9

  • 2.1 Disease Background 9
  • 2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
  • 2.3 Global Trends 11
    • 2.3.1 Incidence 11
    • 2.3.2 Histological Subtypes 12
    • 2.3.3 Relative Survival 13
  • 2.4 Forecast Methodology 14
    • 2.4.1 Sources Used 15
    • 2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods - Base Forecast 25
    • 2.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods - Alternate Forecast 36
    • 2.4.4 Sources Not Used 37
  • 2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015-2025) - Base Forecast 38
    • 2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 38
    • 2.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 40
    • 2.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 42
    • 2.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC 44
    • 2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis 45
    • 2.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtype 46
    • 2.5.7 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma 47
    • 2.5.8 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma 48
    • 2.5.9 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 49
    • 2.5.10 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC 50
  • 2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015-2025) - Alternate Forecast 52
    • 2.6.1 Alternate Forecast - Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology 52
    • 2.6.2 Alternate Forecast - Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC 54
  • 2.7 Discussion 55
    • 2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 55
    • 2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 56
    • 2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 57

3 Appendix 58

  • 3.1 Bibliography 58
  • 3.2 About the Authors 63
    • 3.2.1 Epidemiologists 63
    • 3.2.2 Reviewers 64
    • 3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 64
  • 3.3 About GlobalData 65
  • 3.4 About EpiCast 65
  • 3.5 Disclaimer 66

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Lung Cancer 10
  • Table 2: Histological Subtype Distribution Among NSCLC 13
  • Table 3: 8MM, Relative Survival 14
  • Table 4: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC 15
  • Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis 16
  • Table 6: 8MM, Sources Used for NSCLC by Histological Subtypes 18
  • Table 7: US, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 19
  • Table 8: 5EU, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 20
  • Table 9: Japan, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 22
  • Table 10: China (Urban), Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 23
  • Table 11: 8MM, Sources Used for Relative Survival of NSCLC 24
  • Table 12: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 39
  • Table 13: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 41
  • Table 14: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N (Row %), 2015 43
  • Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 46
  • Table 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Subtypes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 47
  • Table 17: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 48
  • Table 18: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 49
  • Table 19: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 50
  • Table 20: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 51
  • Table 21: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtypes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 and 2025 53
  • Table 22: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 55

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 40
  • Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 42
  • Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 44
  • Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 45
  • Figure 5: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 52
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