EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 67 Pages
|EpiCast Report：非小細胞肺癌(NSCLC)の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025|
|出版日: 2016年11月11日||ページ情報: 英文 67 Pages||
Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissues. It is one of the most commonly occurring cancers in the world (IARC, 2016). Lung cancer is classified into three main types: non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer, and lung carcinoid tumor. NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer, making up about 85% of all lung cancers. Small cell lung cancer accounts for 10-15% of lung cancers, while carcinoid tumors are the rarest, occurring in fewer than 5% of lung cancers (ACS, 2016).
In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 791,563 cases in 2015 to 1,069,516 cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 3.51% per year. In the five major European markets (5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 172,998 cases in 2015 to 194,435 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 1.24%.
In 2015, there were 1,199,845 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in the 8MM, which is expected to increase to 1,626,132 cases by 2025, at an AGR of 3.55%. Among the 8MM, China had the highest number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in 2015 and 2025, at 439,438 cases and 708,530 cases, respectively, and will have the highest growth in the 8MM at an AGR of 6.12%.
The relative survival of NSCLC varies by subtype, where adenocarcinoma has the highest survival, followed by squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma. In the alternate forecast, due to the forecast increase in adenocarcinoma during 2015-2025, epidemiologists expect an increase in relative survival and, consequently, an increase in the number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC.
The report “EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025” provides an overview of the risk factors and the global and historical trends for NSCLC in the eight major markets (8MM): US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China (urban). It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in these markets from 2015-2025. The incident cases are further segmented by sex and age (18-39 years, 40-59 years, 60-79 years, and 80 years and older), cancer stage at diagnosis (IA, IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, and IV), cancer histology subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and other). Moreover, this report provides an alternate forecast scenario that takes into account potential changes in the diagnosed incident cases distribution by histology subtype. The alternate forecast also examines the impact of potential changes in histology subtypes on the 10-year epidemiology forecast of the five-year prevalent cases of NSCLC from 2015-2025.