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EpiCast Report:世界のアルツハイマー病の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 262491
出版日 ページ情報 英文 82 Pages
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EpiCast Report:世界のアルツハイマー病の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
出版日: 2015年03月16日 ページ情報: 英文 82 Pages
概要

全世界の60歳以上の人口に占める認知症患者の比率は3.9%となっており、またアルツハイマー病の有病者の比率は、米国で9.7%、欧州で4.4%、発展途上国で3.4%となっています。世界各国でアルツハイマー病の有病者数は今後急増するものと考えられています。世界の主要9ヶ国の有病者数は、2012年の1253万人から2022年には1672万人へと、年平均(CAGR)3.35%もの急速な速度で増加すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、世界の主要9ヶ国(米国・ドイツ・フランス・イタリア・スペイン・英国・日本・中国・インド)におけるアルツハイマー病の発症状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、脂質異常症の特徴や、各国での詳細状況、今後10年間の発症件数・有病者数の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果を概略以下の内容でお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疫学

  • リスク要因と共存症
    • アルツハイマー病の家族歴がリスクを7.5倍高める
    • ApoE ε4 対立遺伝子がアルツハイマー病のリスクを3倍高める
    • 心血管疾患のリスク要因が、アルツハイマー病のリスクを倍増させる
    • 65歳以上では、アルツハイマー病の発症件数・有病者数が5歳ごとに倍増する
    • 糖尿病は男性の発症リスクを2倍高めるが、女性の場合は微増に留まる
    • 女性の発症リスクは男性より1.5倍高い
    • 軽度認知機能障害(MCI)はアルツハイマー病のリスクを高めるが、
    • うつ病はアルツハイマー病のリスクを三倍に増やすが、単なる疾患の段階の場合もある
    • アルツハイマー病患者の最大70%が不安症にも苦しんでいる
    • 精神病と激越が、アルツハイマー病患者の一般的な共存症である
  • 世界各国の動向
    • 米国
    • 欧州主要5ヶ国
    • 日本
    • 中国
    • インド
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 予測の前提条件と手法
    • 利用しなかった情報源
  • 疫学的予測(今後10年間分)
    • アルツハイマー病の有病者数
    • 年齢層別の有病者数
    • 男女別の有病者数
    • 年齢で標準化された有病者数
  • 議論
    • 疫学的傾向に関する結論
    • 分析の限界
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: GDHCER010-15

AD is an irreversible, neurodegenerative brain disease of the elderly, which leads to a progressive decline in memory and cognitive abilities, such as thinking, language, and learning capacity. Similar to AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is also a condition of the elderly in which there is a slight but noticeable and measurable decline in cognitive abilities, including memory and thinking skills, but no dementia.

To forecast the total prevalent cases of AD in adults ages =60 years in the 9MM during the forecast period (2013-2023), GlobalData epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies that used the diagnostic criteria based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised (DSM-III-R) to diagnose dementia, and the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria to diagnose AD. Similarly, to forecast the total prevalent cases of MCI in the 9MM, GlobalData's epidemiologists selected country-specific studies that defined MCI as a "slight but noticeable and measurable decline in cognitive abilities, including memory and thinking skills, but no dementia." Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists kept the forecast methodology consistent across the 9MM in order to allow for a meaningful comparison of the total prevalent cases between the markets.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that by 2023, there will be approximately 17.38 million total prevalent cases of AD across the 9MM covered in this analysis. GlobalData epidemiologists expect a 34.3% increase in the total prevalent cases of AD in the 9MM over the next decade. Similarly, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of MCI in the 9MM will increase from 82.25 million cases in 2013 to 108.41 million cases in 2013 at a decadal growth rate of 31.80%.

Scope

  • The Alzheimer's disease (AD) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of AD in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and India). The series also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of AD segmented by sex, age, and severity in these markets. In addition, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) segmented by sex and age in these markets.
  • The AD epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

Reasons to buy

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AD market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global AD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for AD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
  • Identify the percentage of AD prevalent cases by severity and identify the number of cases with MCI.

Table of Contents

1. Table of Contents

  • 1.1. List of Tables
  • 1.2. List of Figures

2. Introduction

  • 2.1. Related Reports
  • 2.2. Upcoming Related Reports

3. Epidemiology

  • 3.1. Disease Background
  • 3.2. Risk Factors and Comorbidities
    • 3.2.1. A family history of Alzheimer's increases the risk of developing the disease by 7.5 times
    • 3.2.2. The APOE ε4 allele triples the risk for AD
    • 3.2.3. Cardiovascular risk factors in midlife significantly increase the risk of developing AD in later life
    • 3.2.4. The incidence and prevalence of AD double every five years after age 65 years
    • 3.2.5. Diabetes doubles the risk of AD in men, but only marginally affects the risk in women
    • 3.2.6. Women are 1.5 times more likely to develop AD than men
    • 3.2.7. Depression triples the risk for AD, and is the most common comorbidity
    • 3.2.8. Up to 70% of AD patients also suffer from anxiety
    • 3.2.9. Psychosis and agitation are common comorbidities in Alzheimer's patients
  • 3.3. Global Trends
    • 3.3.1. US
    • 3.3.2. 5EU
    • 3.3.3. Japan
    • 3.3.4. China
    • 3.3.5. India
  • 3.4. Forecast Methodology
    • 3.4.1. Sources Used
    • 3.4.2. Forecast Assumptions and Methods
    • 3.4.3. Sources Not Used
  • 3.5. Epidemiology Forecast (2013-2023)
    • 3.5.1. Total Prevalent Cases of AD
    • 3.5.2. Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
    • 3.5.3. Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
    • 3.5.4. Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of AD
    • 3.5.5. Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Severity
    • 3.5.6. Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
    • 3.5.7. Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
    • 3.5.8. Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
    • 3.5.9. Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of MCI
  • 3.6. Discussion
    • 3.6.1. Conclusions Regarding the Epidemiological Trends
    • 3.6.2. Limitations of the Analysis
    • 3.6.3. Strengths of the Analysis

4. Appendix

  • 4.1. Bibliography
  • 4.2. About the Authors
    • 4.2.1. Epidemiologist
    • 4.2.2. Reviewers
    • 4.2.3. Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
    • 4.2.4. Global Head of Healthcare
  • 4.3. About GlobalData
  • 4.4. About EpiCast
  • 4.5. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AD
  • Table 2: DSM-III-R Criteria for the Diagnosis of Dementia
  • Table 3: NINCDS-ADRDA Criteria for the Diagnosis of AD
  • Table 4: 9MM, Epidemiological Sources for AD Total Prevalence Data
  • Table 5: 9MM, Epidemiological Sources for AD Total Prevalence Data, Based on Severity
  • Table 6: 9MM, Epidemiological Sources for MCI Total Prevalence Data
  • Table 7: 9MM, Sources Excluded from the Forecast for the Total Prevalent Cases of AD
  • Table 8: 9MM, Sources Excluded from the Forecast for the Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
  • Table 9: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Ages ≥60 Years, Men and Women, N, 2013-2023
  • Table 10: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 11: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Sex, Age ≥ 60 Years, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 12: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Severity, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 13: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Ages ≥60 Years, Men and Women, N, 2013-2023
  • Table 14: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 15: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Sex, Age ≥60 Years, N (Row %), 2013

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Ages ≥60 Years, Men and Women, N, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Age, Men and Women, N, 2013
  • Figure 3: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Sex, Age ≥60 Years, N, 2013
  • Figure 4: 9MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of AD, Age ≥60 Years, Men and Women, %, 2013
  • Figure 5: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Severity, Men and Women, N, 2013
  • Figure 6: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Ages ≥60 Years, Men and Women, N, 2013-2023
  • Figure 7: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Age, Men and Women, N, 2013
  • Figure 8: 9MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Sex, Age ≥60 Years, N, 2013
  • Figure 9: 9MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of MCI, Age ≥60 Years, Men and Women, %, 2013
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