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EpiCast Report:世界のアルツハイマー病の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 262491
出版日 ページ情報 英文 37 Pages
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EpiCast Report:世界のアルツハイマー病の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026
出版日: 2017年10月12日 ページ情報: 英文 37 Pages
概要

全世界の60歳以上の人口に占める認知症患者の比率は3.9%となっており、またアルツハイマー病の有病者の比率は、米国で9.7%、欧州で4.4%、発展途上国で3.4%となっています。世界各国でアルツハイマー病の有病者数は今後急増するものと考えられています。世界の主要9ヶ国の有病者数は、2012年の1253万人から2022年には1672万人へと、年平均(CAGR)3.35%もの急速な速度で増加すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、世界の主要9ヶ国(米国・ドイツ・フランス・イタリア・スペイン・英国・日本・中国・インド)におけるアルツハイマー病の発症状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、脂質異常症の特徴や、各国での詳細状況、今後10年間の発症件数・有病者数の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果を概略以下の内容でお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疫学

  • リスク要因と共存症
    • アルツハイマー病の家族歴がリスクを7.5倍高める
    • ApoE ε4 対立遺伝子がアルツハイマー病のリスクを3倍高める
    • 心血管疾患のリスク要因が、アルツハイマー病のリスクを倍増させる
    • 65歳以上では、アルツハイマー病の発症件数・有病者数が5歳ごとに倍増する
    • 糖尿病は男性の発症リスクを2倍高めるが、女性の場合は微増に留まる
    • 女性の発症リスクは男性より1.5倍高い
    • 軽度認知機能障害(MCI)はアルツハイマー病のリスクを高めるが、
    • うつ病はアルツハイマー病のリスクを三倍に増やすが、単なる疾患の段階の場合もある
    • アルツハイマー病患者の最大70%が不安症にも苦しんでいる
    • 精神病と激越が、アルツハイマー病患者の一般的な共存症である
  • 世界各国の動向
    • 米国
    • 欧州主要5ヶ国
    • 日本
    • 中国
    • インド
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 予測の前提条件と手法
    • 利用しなかった情報源
  • 疫学的予測(今後10年間分)
    • アルツハイマー病の有病者数
    • 年齢層別の有病者数
    • 男女別の有病者数
    • 年齢で標準化された有病者数
  • 議論
    • 疫学的傾向に関する結論
    • 分析の限界
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

目次
Product Code: GDHCER162-17

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a subtype of dementia and is an irreversible, neurodegenerative brain disease of the elderly, characterized by the death of brain cells, which leads to a progressive decline in memory and cognitive abilities, such as thinking, language, and learning capacity (NIA, 2017). AD is the most common cause of dementia in people age 60 years and older, and accounts for approximately 75% of the total dementia cases worldwide.

To forecast the total prevalent cases of AD in adults ages 60 years and older in the 7MM during the forecast period (2016-2026), our epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies that used the diagnostic criteria based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Revised (DSM-IV) to diagnose dementia, and the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria to diagnose AD.

In the 7MM, our epidemiologists forecast an increase in the total prevalent cases of AD from around 10.6 million total prevalent cases in 2016 to around 13.7 total prevalent cases in 2026, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of nearly 3% during the forecast period. Among the 7MM, the US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of AD throughout the forecast period, while the UK will have the lowest.

Similarly, our epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of MCI in the 7MM will increase from over 28 million total prevalent cases in 2016 to around 34.5 million total prevalent cases in 2026 at an AGR of about 2%. Among the 7MM, the US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of MCI throughout the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest.

The report "EpiCast Report: Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026", provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for AD in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of AD (diagnosed and undiagnosed) segmented by sex, age (ages 60 years and older), and severity in these markets. Additionally, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of MCI segmented by sex and age (ages 60 years and older) in these markets.

Scope

  • The Alzheimer's Disease (AD) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of AD in the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of AD (diagnosed and undiagnosed) segmented by sex, age (ages 60 years and older), and severity in these markets. Additionally, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) segmented by sex and age (ages 60 years and older) in these markets.
  • The AD epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to buy

The Alzheimer's Disease EpiCast report will allow you to -

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AD market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global AD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for AD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
  • Understand severity of prevalent AD cases and total prevalent cases of MCI.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2

  • 1.1 List of Tables 3
  • 1.2 List of Figures 3

2 Executive Summary 4

  • 2.1 Related Reports 6
  • 2.2 Upcoming Reports 6

3 Epidemiology 7

  • 3.1 Disease Background 7
  • 3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 8
  • 3.3 Global and Historical Trends 9
  • 3.4 Forecast Methodology 11
    • 3.4.1 Sources 11
    • 3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 14
    • 3.4.3 Total Prevalent Cases of AD 14
    • 3.4.4 Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity 17
    • 3.4.5 Total Prevalent Cases of MCI 20
  • 3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AD (2016-2026) 22
    • 3.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of AD 22
    • 3.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD 23
    • 3.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD 24
    • 3.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity 25
  • 3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for MCI (2016-2026) 26
    • 3.6.1 Total Prevalent Cases of MCI 26
    • 3.6.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI 27
    • 3.6.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI 28
  • 3.7 Discussion 29
    • 3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 29
    • 3.7.2 Limitations of Analysis 29
    • 3.7.3 Strengths of Analysis 30

4 Appendix 31

  • 4.1 Bibliography 31
  • 4.2 About the Authors 35
    • 4.2.1 Epidemiologist 35
    • 4.2.2 Reviewers 35
    • 4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 36
    • 4.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy 36
  • 4.3 About GlobalData 37
  • 4.4 Contact Us 37
  • 4.5 Disclaimer 37

List of Tables

1.1 List of Tables

  • Table 1: DSM-IV Criteria for the Diagnosis of Dementia 8
  • Table 2: NINCDS-ADRDA Criteria for the Diagnosis of AD 8
  • Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AD 9
  • Table 4: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages ≥60 Years, Selected Years 2016-2026. 22
  • Table 5: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages ≥60 Years, Selected Years 2016-2026. 26

List of Figures

1.2 List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages ≥60 Years, 2016 and 2026 5
  • Figure 2: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages ≥60 Years , 2016 and 2026 5
  • Figure 3: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of AD (%), Ages ≥60 Years 10
  • Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of MCI (%), Ages ≥60 Years 11
  • Figure 5: 7MM, Sources Used and Not Used, Total Prevalent Cases of AD 12
  • Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity 13
  • Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI 14
  • Figure 8: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, 2016 23
  • Figure 9: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages >60 Years, 2016 24
  • Figure 10: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages ≥60 Years, 2016 25
  • Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, 2016 27
  • Figure 12: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages >60 Years, 2016 28
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