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世界のヒト免疫不全ウイルス(HIV)の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 260973
出版日 ページ情報 英文 79 Pages
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世界のヒト免疫不全ウイルス(HIV)の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
出版日: 2017年01月01日 ページ情報: 英文 79 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、世界の主要10ヶ国(におけるHIV(ヒト免疫不全ウイルス)の発症状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、HIVの特徴や、各国での詳細状況、今後10年間の発症件数の予測値などを調査・推計しています。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疫学

  • 疾患の背景
  • リスク要因と共存症
  • 世界各国の動向
    • 米国
    • EU5ヵ国
    • ブラジル、中国、日本
  • 予測手法
  • 疫学的予測(8大市場)
    • 有病数
    • 年齢別有病数
    • 性別有病数
    • 年齢調整有病率
    • 生殖補助医療(ART)を受けた症例
    • 妊婦のHIV症例
  • 日本における疫学的予測
    • HIV診断後の有病期間が20年の症例
    • 有病期間20年の年齢別症例数
    • 有病期間20年の性別症例数
    • 有病期間20年の年齢調整後の有病率
    • 生殖補助医療(ART)を受けた症例
    • 妊婦のHIV症例
  • 考察
    • 疫学的予測について
    • 今回の分析の制約
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: GDHCER130-16

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a lentivirus that impairs and destructs the CD4 cells of the immune system (Simon et al., 2006). This weakens the immune system, leaving an infected individual more susceptible to other illnesses and, over time, impairing the individual's ability to fight off infections. Once an infected person has a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells per μl, HIV has developed into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), which is the most advanced stage of HIV.

In 2015, UNAIDS reported 36.7 Million people to be living with HIV globally, an increase of 3.4 Million from 2010 (UNAIDS, 2016a). It was also reported that there was a significant increase in the number of people living with HIV on ART between 2010 and 2015. In 2010, approximately 7.5 Million people with HIV were receiving ART, and by 2015 this had increased by over 125% to approximately 17.0 Million people.

Epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase from 3,632,410 in 2015 to 4,266,548 in 2025 at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.75%. The US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of HIV in both 2015 and 2025 at 1,315,263 and 1,514,925, respectively.

In 8MM, epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV will increase from 2,926,335 in 2015 to 3,616,811 in 2025 at an AGR of 2.36%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in both 2015 and 2025; however, the UK and China will have the highest AGRs at 3.26% and 3.23%, respectively.

The report “EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025” provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends for HIV in the nine major markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). For the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Brazil, and China) it also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of HIV (both sexes and all ages), and diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age from 2015-2025. The diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are further segmented into those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), those with hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection, and those with hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5

  • 1.1 List of Tables 7
  • 1.2 List of Figures 8

2 Epidemiology 9

  • 2.1 Disease Background 9
  • 2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
  • 2.3 Global Trends 12
    • 2.3.1 US 13
    • 2.3.2 5EU 13
    • 2.3.3 Japan, Brazil, and China 15
  • 2.4 Forecast Methodology 16
    • 2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 17
    • 2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
    • 2.4.3 Sources Not Used 43
  • 2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in the 8MM (2015-2025) 44
    • 2.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 44
    • 2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 46
    • 2.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 47
    • 2.5.4 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 49
    • 2.5.5 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 51
    • 2.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy 52
    • 2.5.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection 54
    • 2.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection 55
  • 2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in Japan (2015-2025) 57
    • 2.6.1 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 57
    • 2.6.2 Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 57
    • 2.6.3 Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 58
    • 2.6.4 Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 58
    • 2.6.5 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy 59
    • 2.6.6 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection 60
    • 2.6.7 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection 61
  • 2.7 Discussion 61
    • 2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 61
    • 2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 62
    • 2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 64

3 Appendix 65

  • 3.1 Bibliography 65
  • 3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 74
    • 3.2.1 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 74
  • 3.3 About the Authors 75
    • 3.3.1 Epidemiologists 75
    • 3.3.2 Reviewers 75
    • 3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 77
  • 3.4 About GlobalData 77
  • 3.5 About EpiCast 78
  • 3.6 Disclaimer 78

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV 10
  • Table 2: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men and Women (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2015 14
  • Table 3: 8MM, Sources of HIV Total Prevalence Data 17
  • Table 4: 8MM, Sources of HIV Diagnosed Prevalence Data 19
  • Table 5: Japan, Sources Used to Forecast the 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Japan 20
  • Table 6: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART 21
  • Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HBV Co-infection 22
  • Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HCV Co-infection 23
  • Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 45
  • Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 46
  • Table 11: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015, Cases (N) and Proportions (Row %) 48
  • Table 12: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015 (Row %) 50
  • Table 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 53
  • Table 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 55
  • Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 56
  • Table 16: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 57
  • Table 17: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, 2015 (Row %) 58
  • Table 18: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, 2015 (Row %) 58
  • Table 19: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 60
  • Table 20: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 60
  • Table 21: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 61
  • Table 22: High-Prescribing Psychiatrists (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country 74

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Overview of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 1990-2015 12
  • Figure 2: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 45
  • Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 47
  • Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 49
  • Figure 5: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 51
  • Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015 52
  • Figure 7: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 57
  • Figure 8: Japan, Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015 59
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