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EpiCast Report:世界のヒト免疫不全ウイルス(HIV)の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 260973
出版日 ページ情報 英文 65 Pages
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EpiCast Report:世界のヒト免疫不全ウイルス(HIV)の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
出版日: 2015年09月07日 ページ情報: 英文 65 Pages
概要

世界の主要8カ国におけるヒト免疫不全ウイルス(HIV)の有病数は、2013年の339万4,507件から2023年には、412万6,502件にまで拡大すると予測されています。HIVの世界的流行は、コンドームの使用や注射針の共用を阻止するなどの疾患予防に集中した公共政策キャンペーンの結果、大部分の国では2007年以降収束し始めました。新しい感染者数の全体的な減少にもかかわらず、HIVウィルス感染者が生殖補助医療(ART)によって長生きできるため、HIV患者数は世界中で増え続けています。また、HIV感染の過小診断は、世界的にもまだ相当な公衆衛生的懸念となっています。

当レポートでは、世界の主要10ヶ国(におけるHIV(ヒト免疫不全ウイルス)の発症状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、HIVの特徴や、各国での詳細状況、今後10年間の発症件数の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果をお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疫学

  • 疾患の背景
  • リスク要因と共存症
    • リスク要因
      • 無防備な性交渉
      • 汚染血液への曝露
      • 静注薬物の使用
      • 他の性病への感染
      • 母子感染
      • 年齢
    • 共存症
      • C型肝炎
      • 結核(TB)
  • 世界各国の動向
    • 米国
    • EU5ヵ国
    • ブラジル、中国、日本
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 利用しなかった情報源
    • 予測の前提条件と手法
  • 疫学的予測(8大市場)
    • 有病数
    • 年齢別有病数
    • 性別有病数
    • 年齢調整有病率
    • 生殖補助医療(ART)を受けた症例
    • 妊婦のHIV症例
  • 日本における疫学的予測
    • HIV診断後の有病期間が20年の症例
    • 有病期間20年の年齢別症例数
    • 有病期間20年の性別症例数
    • 有病期間20年の年齢調整後の有病率
    • 生殖補助医療(ART)を受けた症例
    • 妊婦のHIV症例
  • 考察
    • 疫学的予測について
    • 今回の分析の制約
    • 分析の強み

第4章 付録

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: GDHCER007-15

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that infects the cells of the immune system, destroying or impairing their function. As the infection progresses, the immune system becomes increasingly weaker, and the infected person becomes more susceptible to other infections. It can take as long as two to 10 years for a person infected with HIV to develop acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), which is the most advanced stage of HIV; however, treatment with antiretroviral drugs can slow the process even further.

In 2013, there were 3,394,507 total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM, with 1,218,323 cases in the US and 641,500 in the 5EU markets combined. Japan had 18,428 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in 2013. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase to 4,126,502 in the 8MM by 2023. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in Japan will increase to 27,264 cases by 2023.

GlobalData epidemiologists reviewed national and international HIV and AIDS databases and used reliable data to build this forecast. The total prevalent cases of HIV were segmented by age and sex using country-specific data, whenever available; when data were not available, appropriate proxies were used. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provide an alternative forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, which better aligns with the ART market sales data after consolidation. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an alternative forecast for Japan, based on the reported HIV prevalent cases.

Scope

  • The HIV EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for HIV in the nine major markets (9MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the total prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age (beginning at 0 years and ending at =85 years) in the 8MM, excluding Japan, for which 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases, is forecast. In addition, the report provides the prevalent cases of HIV-positive pregnant women in the total prevalent HIV cases, as well as the total prevalent cases treated by antiretroviral drugs.
  • The HIV epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

Reasons to buy

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global HIV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for HIV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

1. Table of Contents

  • 1.1. List of Tables
  • 1.2. List of Figures

2. Introduction

  • 2.1. Catalyst
  • 2.2. Related Reports
  • 2.3. Upcoming Reports

3. Epidemiology

  • 3.1. Disease Background
  • 3.2. Risk Factors and Comorbidities
  • 3.3. Global Trends
    • 3.3.1. US
    • 3.3.2. 5EU
    • 3.3.3. Brazil, China, and Japan
  • 3.4. Forecast Methodology
    • 3.4.1. Sources Used
    • 3.4.2. Sources Not Used
    • 3.4.3. Forecast Assumptions and Methods
  • 3.5. Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in the 8MM (2013-2023)
    • 3.5.1. Total Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.5.2. Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.5.3. Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.5.4. Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of HIV
    • 3.5.5. HIV Cases Treated with ART
    • 3.5.6. Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women
  • 3.6. Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in Japan (2013-2023)
    • 3.6.1. 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.6.2. Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.6.3. Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV
    • 3.6.4. Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV
    • 3.6.5. HIV Cases Treated with ART
    • 3.6.6. Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women
  • 3.7. Discussion
    • 3.7.1. Epidemiological Forecast Insight
    • 3.7.2. Limitations of the Analysis
    • 3.7.3. Strengths of the Analysis

4. Appendix

  • 4.1. Bibliography
  • 4.2. Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study
  • 4.3. Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
  • 4.4. About the Authors
    • 4.4.1. Epidemiologists
    • 4.4.2. Reviewers
    • 4.4.3. Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
    • 4.4.4. Global Head of Healthcare
  • 4.5. About GlobalData
  • 4.6. About EpiCast
  • 4.7. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV
  • Table 2: US, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men and Women (%), Ages ≥13 Years, 2006-2010
  • Table 3: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2013
  • Table 4: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Women (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2013
  • Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV
  • Table 6: Japan, Sources Used to Forecast the 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Japan
  • Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the ART Treatment Rate Among the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV
  • Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of HIV-Positive Pregnant Women
  • Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2013-2023
  • Table 10: 8MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 11: 8MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 12: 8MM, HIV Cases Treated with ART, N (Col %), All Ages, Both Sexes, Selected Years 2013-2023
  • Table 13: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2013-2023
  • Table 14: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 15: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013
  • Table 16: Japan, HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2013-2023
  • Table 17: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N, 2013
  • Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013
  • Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013
  • Figure 5: 8MM, Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women Among the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV in Women, N, 2013 and 2023
  • Figure 6: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, 2013-2023
  • Figure 7: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N, 2013
  • Figure 8: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013
  • Figure 9: Japan, Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013
  • Figure 10:Japan, Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women Among Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Women, N, 2013 and 2023
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