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EpiCast Report:世界の大腸癌の疫学的予測

EpiCast Report: Colorectal Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

発行 GlobalData 商品コード 258691
出版日 ページ情報 英文 55 Pages
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EpiCast Report:世界の大腸癌の疫学的予測 EpiCast Report: Colorectal Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
出版日: 2016年12月08日 ページ情報: 英文 55 Pages
概要

大腸癌は男性では3番目、女性では2番目に発症率の高い癌の種類です。そして世界各国で発症率・有病率とも増加傾向にあります。主要9ヶ国全体での発症件数は2012年の123万件から、2022年には175万件へ、年間4.22%もの速度で増加すると予測されています。市場は年齢構成・男女差・癌の診断ステージ・検診計画などで差がありますが、どの市場でも患部の除去が最も一般的な治療法であり、患者の70〜90%が除去手術を受けています。

当レポートでは、世界の主要9ヶ国における大腸がんの罹患状況と今後の見通しについて分析し、大腸癌の特徴や、各国での状況、今後10年間の発症率・有病率の予測値などを調査・推計して、その結果をお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疫学

  • 背景
  • リスク要因と共存症
  • 世界の傾向
  • 予測手法
    • 利用した情報源
    • 利用しなかった情報源
    • 予測前提条件
  • 疫学的予測(今後10年間分)
    • 大腸癌の発症総件数
    • 特定の年齢層の大腸癌発症件数
    • 男女別の大腸癌発症件数
    • 年齢調整罹患率
    • 診断時の病期
    • 5年有病者数
    • 5年有病者数のKRAS ステータス
  • 議論

第4章 付録

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: GDHCER141-16

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a cancer that starts in the colon or the rectum (ACS, 2016). CRC is one of the most common types of cancers diagnosed; it is the third most common cancer among men and the second most common in women, worldwide (Ferlay et al., 2016). CRC is a high-mortality cancer, with mortality rates just behind lung, liver, and stomach cancers in men, and breast and lung cancers in women.

In 2015, there were 746,590 diagnosed incident cases of CRC in the 8MM. Epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases in the 8MM will increase to 913,832 by 2025 at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 2.24%. With the exception of the US and Germany, all markets will see an increase in the number of cases, at varying AGRs. The 8MM combined had an estimated 2,582,288 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC in 2015. The number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases will increase by 22.06% over the next 10 years to 3,151,930 by 2025.

Urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases among the 8MM, as well as the highest AGR for both data types. The US and Germany are the only markets that will see a decrease in incidence rate during the forecast period.

Worldwide, CRC is the third most common cancer in men and the second most common cancer in women (Ferlay et al., 2016). Estimates show that almost 55% of CRC cases are diagnosed in more developed regions (Ferlay et al., 2016). CRC has a strong relationship with age, and it is most commonly diagnosed in patients older than 65 years (Erichsen et al., 2013; Jorgensen et al., 2012). In 2012, CRC accounted for almost 10% of the global cancer incidence burden (Stewart and Wild, 2014). A study examining the global trends of CRC analyzed data from 51 cancer registries around the world and found that incidence of CRC increased significantly in countries going through an economic transition such as those found in Eastern Europe, most parts of Asia, and certain parts of South America (Center et al., 2009b).

The report “EpiCast Report: Colorectal Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025” provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of CRC in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China [urban]). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed incident cases and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC in these markets from 2015-2025.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5

  • 1.1 List of Tables 6
  • 1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Epidemiology 8

  • 2.1 Disease Background 8
  • 2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
  • 2.3 Global Trends 11
    • 2.3.1 8MM Incidence Trends 11
    • 2.3.2 8MM, Trends in Five-Year Relative Survival 14
  • 2.4 Forecast Methodology 15
    • 2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 16
    • 2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 20
    • 2.4.3 Sources Not Used 28
  • 2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for CRC (2015-2025) 29
    • 2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 29
    • 2.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 31
    • 2.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 33
    • 2.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of CRC 35
    • 2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC by Stage at Diagnosis 36
    • 2.5.6 Type of Genetic Mutation among Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 37
    • 2.5.7 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CRC 38
  • 2.6 Discussion 40
    • 2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 40
    • 2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 42
    • 2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 43

3 Appendix 44

  • 3.1 Bibliography 44
  • 3.2 About the Authors 51
    • 3.2.1 Epidemiologists 51
    • 3.2.2 Reviewers 51
    • 3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 52
  • 3.3 About GlobalData 53
  • 3.4 About EpiCast 53
  • 3.5 Disclaimer 54

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities For CRC 9
  • Table 2: 8MM, Five-Year Relative Survival (%) 15
  • Table 3: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incidence of CRC 16
  • Table 4: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CRC 17
  • Table 5: 8MM, Sources of CRC Cancer Stage at Diagnosis 18
  • Table 6: 8MM, Sources of Genetic Mutations 19
  • Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015-2025 30
  • Table 8: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Row (%), 2015 32
  • Table 9: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Ages ≥18 Years, Row (%), 2015 34
  • Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC by Cancer Stage at Diagnosis (N), Ages ≥18 Years, Row (%), 2015 37
  • Table 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC by Type of Genetic Mutation (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 38
  • Table 12: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015-2025 39

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 8MM, Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate for CRC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Men, Ages ≥15 Years, 1998-2007 13
  • Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate for CRC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Women, Ages ≥15 Years, 1998-2007 14
  • Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015-2025 30
  • Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 33
  • Figure 5: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC (N), Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 35
  • Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of CRC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Ages ≥18 Years, by Sex, 2015. 36
  • Figure 7: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CRC (N), Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015-2025 40
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