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2020年までの薄膜太陽電池市場:2020年までに主力技術として登場するCIGS(二セレン化銅・インジウム・ガリウム)

Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020 - CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020

発行 GBI Research 商品コード 124636
出版日 ページ情報 英文 78 Pages
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2020年までの薄膜太陽電池市場:2020年までに主力技術として登場するCIGS(二セレン化銅・インジウム・ガリウム) Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020 - CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020
出版日: 2010年06月29日 ページ情報: 英文 78 Pages

当商品の販売は、2016年07月01日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

1980年代以降、薄膜太陽電池産業は製造技術および用いられる材料ともに着実な進歩を遂げてきました。費用対効果の高い発電技術によって同業界に多くの企業や投資家が関心を寄せています。

当レポートでは、世界のエネルギー消費動向とともに薄膜太陽電池市場の概要と2020年までの予測、モジュール生産動向、主要4カ国のプロファイルなどをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 目次

第2章 世界のエネルギー消費概要

  • 世界の電力消費量
  • 再生可能エネルギーの途上と潜在性
  • 太陽エネルギー:魅力的代替エネルギー

第3章 世界の太陽電池市場の概要と市場分析:2001〜2020年

  • 太陽電池技術:定義
  • バリューチェーン
  • 太陽電池の種類
    • 結晶シリコン
    • 薄膜太陽電池
  • 市場分析
    • 2009年の市場
    • 市場成長推進因子
    • 市場成長阻害因子
    • 累積設置容量(MW):2001〜2020年
  • 将来見通し

第4章 概要・シェア分析・効率およびコスト分析

  • 薄膜太陽電池技術のイントロダクションと展開
  • アモルファスシリコン薄膜:技術概要、市場分析、コスト変換効率分析
  • テルル化カドミウム薄膜:技術概要、市場分析、コスト変換効率分析
  • 二セレン化銅・インジウム・ガリウム:技術概要、市場分析、コスト変換効率分析
  • 世界の技術別薄膜太陽電池モジュール市場シェア
  • 競合分析:薄膜太陽電池技術と従来の太陽電池技術
  • 結論

第5章 モジュール生産と設置容量の実績と予測:2001〜2020年

  • 概要
  • 市場促進因子
  • 市場阻害因子
  • 世界の薄膜太陽電池モジュール生産(MW):2001〜2020年
  • 年間および累積設置容量:2001〜2020年
  • 太陽電池業界におけるシェア拡大
  • 投資シナリオ
  • 業界ロードマップ

第6章 薄膜モジュール生産国主要4カ国

  • 主要4カ国
  • ドイツ
  • 日本
  • 中国
  • 米国

第7章 競合環境

第8章 付録

図表

目次
Product Code: GBIAE0010MR

Abstract

GBI Research’s new report, “Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020- CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020” provides key information and analysis on the market opportunities in the Global thin film Solar PV industry. The report covers the key market drivers, restrains and growth forecast for major thin film technologies - Amorphous silicon (a-Si), Cadium Telluride (Cdte), and Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS). The report entails comprehensive analysis of thin-film module production, production capacity, key countries and key industry players. The key study focuses on the global thin film PV industry market outlook along with comparative analysis of different technologies.

The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

The Evolving Thin Film industry Growth Trajectory to Gain Pace Going Forward

Thin-film PV technology witnessed minimal research activities till the early 1980’s. Post this period, it witnessed a constant advancement, in terms of manufacturing technology and materials used. The pursuit of cost-effective electricity generating technology lured major corporations and investors towards the thin film PV industry. The industry saw more than 100 companies entering the market between 2001 and 2009. Thin film PV technology has seen a major development leap from only being associated with the little strip of PV cells used in power calculators to sophisticated Building Integrated PV or solar charges for mobile devices. From a mere 14 MW production in 2001 the market has grown to reach 2,141 MW in 2009, at a CAGR of 58%. The market outlook for the coming decade appears promising as the major thin film producing countries - Japan, China, and the US - are announcing aggressive support for renewable energy expansion through incentives and regulations. In retrospect, the thin film module production is projected to grow at the rate of 24% between 2009 and 2020, to reach 22,214 MW production by 2020.

Global Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2001-2020

Source: GBI Research; F-Forecast

Thin Film Technology Gaining Increasing Share in the Solar Photovoltaic industry

Over period of time, the thin film technology has been successful in grabbing a larger share of the PV market. Thin film production market share in the global solar PV market grew from a mere 2.8% in 2001 to 25% in 2009, thus dictating a growing share in the future. Thin film solar PV, as per GBI Research’s estimation, is set to increase its share to ~38% by 2020. Expectations are that, in the long-term, thin film solar PV technology would surpass the dominating conventional solar PV technology, thus enabling the long sought-after grid parity objective.

Thin Film Market Share in % (in terms of module production), 2001-2020

Source: GBI Research, F-Forecast

CIGS - The Future Market Leader

CIGS technology is gaining more popularity than other thin-film technologies due to its higher efficiency and reduced manufacturing costs. The success of CIGS cells depends on the efficiency, and a faster and cheaper manufacturing process. The future of CIGS technology is encouraging as a lot of venture capitalist firms are investing in it. Investments in excess of $2 billion have already been made in the CIGS market by various companies.

CIGS will most likely be the face of thin film solar PV technology in the future. The technology’s value proposition is that it offers combined advantages of both c-Si, which gives relatively good efficiency and thin-film PV technologies, which claim potential advantages on cost, flexibility, weight, and manufacturability. From 2010, CIGS segment is expected to capture the maximum share in the thin film module market as most of the CIGS manufacturers will begin to attain production cost and conversion efficiencies on par with other thin film technologies especially Cdte.

Thin Film Solar Module Market, by technology type, Market Share in %, 2001-2020

Source: GBI Research, F-Forecast

Market Expansion Coupled with the Entry of New Players To Drive Growth

With over 160 companies producing thin-film solar cells and modules worldwide, the market includes a number of big players with many years of experience and expanding production capacities (First Solar, Kaneka, Mitsubishi, United Solar etc.). There are also a handful of newcomers, a small number of which have the potential to develop into significant players. Many of these companies are ‘pure players’, but a lot of companies that are already established in silicon technology are also attempting to enter the thin-film technology market. Many manufacturers (such as Sharp, ErSol and Q-Cells) see the expansion of their thin-film activities as a type of hedging to their existing technology portfolio, while others are dedicated solely to this technology (e.g. Würth Solar, Kaneka, First Solar and Shell). Thus, the increasing number of manufacturers focusing on this market would eventually lead to major growth in the near future.

Low Efficiency of Thin Film Technologies is a Significant Inhibitor

Due to low efficiency levels of the thin film technologies, their cost effectiveness is not competitive at present. Therefore, competing with electricity cost generated through conventional sources of energy is currently not possible for thin film technology manufacturers. This has increased uncertainty related to technology demand going forward into the future. Coupled with this, capital constraints due to global financial crunch, has led banks and manufacturers, to shy away from financing thin film technology in favor of more mature and abundant crystalline silicon modules for projects in 2009, which may continue in the coming future, resulting in narrowing the thin film expansion.
Competitive landscape

Most of the significant thin film module producers use the aSi technology which indicates the effectiveness and innovative potential of this mature technology. While number of companies in a-Si production are larger than other thin film technologies, Cdte technology emerged as a potential challenger and garnered maximum market share in 2009 with First Solar being the market leader. First Solar’s module production was five times the production of the nearest competitor, United Solar. Only one company from the top 10 companies produced significant amount of CIGS modules in 2009, Wuerth Solar. The production numbers for CIGS are expected to change significantly going forward as new entrants plan to begin the production ramp-up, coupled with extensive investment inflow in this segment

Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020 - CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020

Summary

The report provides key data, information and analysis on the current status and future outlook of Global Thin film industry. The report provides detailed volume and value forecasts to 2020 of the global thin-film PV market by technology type and geographic region. The global thin film photovoltaic (PV) market, despite of caution in the overall PV industry, is expected to experience an overwhelming growth in coming years. By 2020, the industry is set to transform itself to become the face of Solar PV industry.The study also addresses thin-film module production, production capacity, and competition among the industry players (as per technologies) along with the focus on development of emerging technologies in the thin film arena. The report entails comprehensive analysis of top 5 countries. The strongest growth for thin film, as per our analysis, will be in Europe and the US in the short to medium term. Asian countries like China, Japan, and India are also expected to speedup their escalation in the medium term. In Germany will remain strongest and the most important market for thin film PV industry.

Scope

- This comprehensive report gives a thorough analysis of global thin film photovoltaic (PV) market.
- The report covers top 5 countries - Germany, Japan, the US (United States), China and Republic of Korea.
- Cumulative and annual installed capacity from 2001 to 2009, with forecasts to 2020 for the Global Solar PV and Global Thin Film PV industry.
- Market share and comparative analysis of different thin film technologies along with forecast. Technologies covered include Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS)
- Comparative analysis of traditional solar PV technology and thin film PV technology.
- Competitive landscape which also includes the detailed information of top 10 companies. Key companies covered include First Solar, Inc., United Solar Ovonic, LLC, Sharp Corporation, Kaneka Corporation, Trony Solar Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
- Key topics covered include the Market Drivers, Market Restraints, Market trends, emerging market and Investment status.

Reasons to buy

The report will enhance your decision making capability in more rapid and time sensitive manner. It will allow the user to:
- Identify key growth drivers and restrain, and competitive landscape in top 5 countries
- Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry' s growth potential by developing strategies based on the industry’s emerging technologies and current market strategies adopted by the top players.
- Identify key established industry players along with start-up ventures while analyzing investment trends in the industry.
- Identify the drivers and restraints of global thin film industry along with its established technologies
- Facilitate decision making based on strong historic and forecast data.
- Understand how each technology, each at a different stage of development and adoption, are driven forward to the development path.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2 Global Energy Consumption Overview 9
2.1 The Breadth of Global Electricity Consumption 9
2.2 Emergence & Potential of Renewable Energy 10
2.3 Solar Energy: An Attractive Alternative 11
3 Global Solar Photovolataic (PV), Overview and Market Analysis, 2001-2020 12
3.1 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Technology, Definition 12
3.2 Solar PV Value Chain 12
3.2.1 Silicon Feedstock 13
3.2.2 Ingots and Wafers 13
3.2.3 Solar PV Cells 13
3.2.4 PV Modules 13
3.2.5 PV System Integration/installation 13
3.3 Solar PV cell type 13
3.3.1 Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) 14
3.3.2 Thin Film Solar PV 14
3.4 Global Solar PV Market Analysis 14
3.4.1 Global Solar PV Market in 2009 14
3.4.2 Global Solar PV Market, Key factors driving the growth of the market 16
3.4.3 Global Solar PV Market, Key Issues Hindering Market Growth 17
3.4.4 Global Solar PV Installed Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity in MW, 2001-2020 17
3.5 Future Outlook 19
4 Global Thin Film Technology - Overview, Share Analysis, Efficiency and Cost Anlysis 20
4.1 Thin Film PV Technology Introduction & Evolution 20
4.1.1 Thin Film Technology, Definition 20
4.2 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) Thin Film - Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Cost - Conversion Efficiency Analysis 21
4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Technology Overview 21
4.2.2 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Technology Evolution 21
4.2.3 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Cell structure 22
4.2.4 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Market Overview 23
4.2.5 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Factors Driving Technology Uptake 23
4.2.6 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Major Restrains Hindering the Technology Growth 24
4.2.7 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Cost and Conversion Efficiency analysis 24
4.2.8 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Key Industry Players 25
4.3 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Thin Film - Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Cost - Conversion Efficiency Analysis 26
4.3.1 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Technology Overview 26
4.3.2 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Module Manufacturing Process and Other Related Details 27
4.3.3 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Market Overview 27
4.3.4 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Key Factors Driving the Technology’s Uptake 28
4.3.5 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Restraints Hindering the Technology’s Uptake 28
4.3.6 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Cost and Efficiency Analysis 28
4.3.7 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Key industry players 29
4.4 Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS) Thin Film - Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Cost - Conversion Efficiency Analysis 30
4.4.1 CIGS, Technology Overview 30
4.4.2 CIGS Solar PV Cell Structure 30
4.4.3 CIGS Manufacturing Process 31
4.4.4 CIGS, Market Overview 32
4.4.5 CIGS, Major Factors Driving Technology Uptake 32
4.4.6 CIGS, Restraints Hindering Technology Uptake 33
4.4.7 CIGS, Cost and Efficiency Analysis 33
4.4.8 CIGS, Key Industry Players 34
4.5 Global Thin Film Solar Module Market Share by Technology 35
4.6 Comparative Analysis: Different Thin Film Solar PV Technologies vis-à-vis Traditional Solar PV Technology 37
4.6.1 Solar PV Technologies, Value Chain Analysis 37
4.6.2 Solar PV Technologies, Conversion Efficiency 38
4.6.3 Module Cost/Watt (in $) Comparative Analysis, Crystaline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film, 2009-2020 39
4.6.4 Conclusion 40
4.7 Thin Film Solar PV Technology, Market Segmentation by End-User 40
5 Global Thin Film Market - Market Analysis, Historical and Forecast Module Production and Installed Capacity, 2001-2020 42
5.1 Global Thin Film Market, Overview 42
5.2 Global Thin Film Market, Key Factors Driving Growth 42
5.2.1 Ambitious Expansion Plans 42
5.2.2 Key Properties, Advantages of Thin Film Technology Over Conventional Silicon Technology 42
5.2.3 Cost-effective Compared to Conventional PV Technology 43
5.2.4 Increase in Investment by Venture Capital Firms Driven by Technological Advances 43
5.2.5 Industry Leader has the Lowest Levelized Cost for Electricity (LCOE) 43
5.2.6 Government Support and Inclination Towards Clean Technology will Drive the Market Growth Potential 43
5.2.7 Global Economic Recovery 43
5.3 Global Thin Film Market, Restraints 44
5.3.1 Less Competitive - Inability to Compete with c-Si and Conventional Energy Sources on Cost 44
5.3.2 More Reliance on Government Subsidies and Incentives 44
5.3.3 Incompetent Properties 44
5.3.4 Easing of Silicon Shortage Leading to hike in Crystalline Silicon Demand 45
5.3.5 Reduction in Oil prices 45
5.4 Global Thin Film Solar PV Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 45
5.5 Global Thin Film Solar PV Installed Capacity in MW, Annual & Cumulative 2001-2020 47
5.6 Global Thin Film PV Technology - Increasing their Share in the Solar Photovoltaic Industry 48
5.7 Thin Film PV Technology Investment Scenario 50
5.8 Global Thin Film PV Industry Roadmap 51
6 Key Analysis of the Top Four Thin Film Module Producing Countries 52
6.1 Top Four Thin Film Producing Countries - Share in Global Thin Film Production in 2009 52
6.2 Germany, Thin Film Module Production - Market Overview, Historic and Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 52
6.2.1 Germany, Thin Film Module Production, Market Overview 52
6.2.2 Germany, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production, 2007-2020 53
6.2.3 Germany, Solar Photovoltaic Regulatory Framework 54
6.3 Japan, Thin Film Module Production - Market Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 57
6.3.1 Japan, Thin Film Module Production, Market Overview 57
6.3.2 Japan, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 58
6.3.3 Japan, Solar PV Power Regulatory Framework 60
6.4 China, Thin Film Module Production - Market Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 62
6.4.1 China, Thin Film Module Production, Market Overview 62
6.4.2 China, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 62
6.4.3 China, Solar PV Power Regulatory Framework 64
6.5 The US Thin Film Module Production - Market Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 66
6.5.1 The United States, Thin Film Module Production, Market Overview 66
6.5.2 The US, Historical and Forecast thin film module production in MW, 2001-2020 66
6.5.3 The US Solar PV Regulatory Framework 67
7 Global Thin Film Solar PV Technology, Competitive Landscape 70
7.1 Global Top Ten Thin Film Companies, Module Production Share, in 2009 70
7.2 Comparative Analysis, Major Thin Film Companies 71
7.2.1 Top 10 Thin Film Module Producers, Production Capacity and Production in MW, 2005-2009 73
8 Appendix 75
8.1 About GBI Research 75
8.2 Market Definition 75
8.2.1 Product Types covered 75
8.2.2 Geographies covered 75
8.2.3 Exchange Rate 75
8.2.4 Abbreviations 76
8.3 Methodology 76
8.3.1 Coverage 77
8.3.2 Secondary Research 77
8.3.3 Primary Research 78
8.3.4 Expert Panel Validation 78
8.4 Contact Us 78
8.5 Disclaimer 78

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Electricity Consumption Trajectory, 1950-2050 9
Table 2: World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2030, in Quadrillion Bt 10
Table 3: Global Solar PV market in MW, Installed Capacity (MW) 2001-2009, Key Countries 16
Table 4: Global Solar PV Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2001-2020 18
Table 5: Amorphous Silicon (1X), Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 24
Table 6: CdTe, Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 29
Table 7: CIGS, Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 34
Table 8: Thin Film Solar Module Market, by technology type, Market Share in %, 2001-2020 36
Table 9: Conversion Efficiency, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 38
Table 10: Module cost/Watt in $, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 39
Table 11: Global Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 46
Table 12: Global Thin Film Solar PV Installed Capacity in MW, Annual and Cumulative, 2001-2020 48
Table 13: Thin Film Market Share in % (in Terms of Production), 2001-2020 49
Table 14: Major Investment in the Thin film Industry, in 2009, $m 50
Table 15: Germany, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 54
Table 16: Germany, Solar PV Market, Digression Rates for Feed-In Tariffs, 2008-2011 54
Table 17: Germany, Solar PV Market, Sliding Scale for Digression Rates, 2008-2011 55
Table 18: Germany, Solar PV Market, Feed-in Tariffs for Ground-Mounted Installations, (cents/kWh), 2008-2015 55
Table 19: Germany, Payment Structure for Different Types of PV Installations, 2004 56
Table 20: Germany, Feed-in-Tariff, € / KWh, 2008-2009 56
Table 21: Japan, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 59
Table 22: Japan, Solar PV Support Measures, 2008 61
Table 23: China, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 63
Table 24: China, Solar PV Support Measures (as of 2008) 65
Table 25: The US, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 67
Table 26: Top 10 Thin Film Companies in 2009, in Terms of Module Production Share, in MW and % 70
Table 27: Comparative Analysis, Major Thin Film Companies 71
Table 28: Top 10 Thin Film Module Producers, Module Production in MW, 2005-2009 74
Table 29: Top 10 Thin Film Module Producers, Production Capacities in MW, 2005-2013 74
Table 30: Exchange Rate Conversion to USD,2009 75
Table 31: Abbreviations 76

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2030, in Quadrillion Btu 9
Figure 2: Solar PV Value Chain 12
Figure 3: Solar PV Cell Type 13
Figure 4: Global Solar PV Market in MW, Installed Capacity (MW) 2001-2009, Key Countries 15
Figure 5: Global Solar PV Cumulative installed capacity (MW), 2001-2020 18
Figure 6: Thin Film Manufacturing Process 20
Figure 7: Evolution of a-Si technology 21
Figure 8: Amorphous Silicon Cell Structure, Single Junction 22
Figure 9: Amorphous Silicon Cell Structure, Triple Junction 22
Figure 10: Amorphous Silicon (1X), Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 24
Figure 11: CdTe Solar PV Cell Structure, 2010 26
Figure 12: CdTe, Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 29
Figure 13: CIGS, Cell Architecture 31
Figure 14: CIGS, Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 34
Figure 15: Thin Film Solar Module Market, by technology type, Market Share in %, 2001-2020 36
Figure 16: Solar PV Technologies, Value Chain 37
Figure 17: Conversion Efficiency, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 38
Figure 18: Module Cost/Watt in $, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 39
Figure 19: Market segment suitability for thin film PV technologies 41
Figure 20: Global Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 46
Figure 21: Global Thin Film Solar PV Installed Capacity in MW, Annual & Cumulative, 2001-2020 47
Figure 22: Thin Film Technology Share in % (in Terms of Module Production), 2001-2020 49
Figure 23: Solar PV Technologies, Market Penetration 51
Figure 24: Top Four Thin Film Producing Countries - Share in Global Thin Film Production in 2009, (Production in MW) 52
Figure 25: Germany, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 53
Figure 26: Japan, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 58
Figure 27: China, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 63
Figure 28: The US, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 67
Figure 29: Top 10 Thin Film Companies in 2009, in Terms of Module production Share , % 70
Figure 30: Top 10 Companies, Production Capacity and Module Production in MW, 2009 73
Figure 31:GBI Research Methodology 77

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