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世界の防衛産業の展望:2020年

Global Defence Outlook, 2020

出版日: | 発行: Frost & Sullivan | ページ情報: 英文 123 Pages | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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世界の防衛産業の展望:2020年
出版日: 2020年06月16日
発行: Frost & Sullivan
ページ情報: 英文 123 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

世界の防衛産業の見通しには、新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) をはじめ、実にさまざまな要因が影響を及ぼす見通しです。米国の大統領選、Brexit、「一帯一路」プロジェクトを通じた中国の経済拡大、北朝鮮の核武装とミサイル実験、イランと米国の緊張、トルコとシリアの紛争、アフガニスタンのタリバンとの停戦合意、ベネズエラの政情不安なども世界の防衛産業の展望に大きな影響を及ぼすでしょう。

当レポートでは、世界の防衛産業の見通しを調査し、COVID-19の影響、世界経済の動向、防衛エリア別の主要動向、影響因子、関連技術の動向、主な調達プログラム、地域別の地政学的動向、脅威と紛争、防衛費、オペレーション上の要件、成長機会・成功戦略の分析などをまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

調査目的・調査手法

地政学的動向

新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) による危機

  • COVID-19:概要
  • 防衛産業のサプライチェーンへの影響
  • 防衛産業への影響:その他
  • 業界の主要なアクションポイント

世界経済の動向

オペレーションコンセプトの変化

  • さまざまな脅威の性質・特徴の変化
  • テロ対策
  • サイバー戦争・サイバーセキュリティ
  • ハイブリッド戦争
  • 都市戦争
  • 弾道ミサイル能力の進歩
  • 資源をめぐる対立

空域

  • 過去12か月のハイライト
  • 世代傾向
  • 市場を牽引する主なプログラム

陸上

  • 過去12か月のハイライト
  • 世代傾向
  • 市場を牽引する主なプログラム

海域

  • 過去12か月-ハイライト
  • 水上艦:世代傾向・推進要因
  • 潜水艦:世代傾向・推進要因
  • 技術動向

地域分析:アフリカ

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 産業
  • 戦略的総論

アジア太平洋地域

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化するアジア太平洋防衛技術産業基盤(DTIB)
  • 戦略的総論

中央アジア・南アジア

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 既存の提携・関係
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化する中央アジア・南アジアのDTIB
  • 戦略的総論

欧州

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 既存の提携・関係
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化する欧州のDTIB
  • 戦略的結論

中東

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化する中東のDTIB
  • 戦略的結論

北米

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化する北米のDTIB
  • 戦略的結論

南米

  • 地政学的動向・問題
  • 紛争・脅威
  • 防衛費
  • オペレーション要件
  • 変化する南米のDTIB
  • 戦略的結論

技術動向

成長機会

  • 成長機会:M&A
  • 成長機会:自動化・ロボット工学
  • 成長のための戦略的必須要件

総論

付録

目次
Product Code: MF34-16

Continuing High Global Tensions will Call for a Spike in Military Spending; However, the COVID-19 Induced Economic Recession will Severely Restrict Defence Budgets

The defence outlook for 2020 will be driven primarily by a period of instability and high levels of tension due to various factors, including a global pandemic (Coronavirus 2019 or COVID-19), which will be explored by region in this research. The effects of COVID-19 on the defence industry are still to be fully understood. The impact will predominantly be on the supply chain. There are several major points of interest that could have an impact on geopolitical relations and a cascading effect on the wider defence industry, specifically with regards to supply chains and competition. Such points of interest include the upcoming US presidential election, the ramifications of Brexit, China's economic expansion through the "one belt one road" project, North Korean nuclear armament and missile testing, Iran-US tensions, Turkish-Syrian conflict, the ceasefire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and political instability in Venezuela. Major drivers within the defence industry are the arms race between the United States, Russia, and China, as well as the looming threats that China and Russia are perceived to pose. The tripartite arms race is predominantly central to the development of hypersonic technology, with both Russia and China claiming to have functioning weapons in production. The threat from Russia will continue to be the major driver of the defence spending of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), especially amongst the Eastern European nations. However, the recent NATO conference in London established China as a growing adversary.

This report identifies six key emerging concepts of operations: counterterrorism, cyberwarfare, hybrid warfare, urban warfare, advancing ballistic missile capabilities, and conflicts over resources. These changing operational environments will drive defence requirements and procurement over the year -- examples are counterterrorism operations driving the procurement of mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) and armoured personnel vehicle (APV) vehicle programmes; and advancing ballistic missile capabilities, such as hypersonics, driving air defence requirements. Terrorism is on the rise around the world with the proliferation of non-state actors such as Islamic State (IS) related organisations and other separatist movements. As digitisation increases around the world, states and non-state actors are utilising the technology to spread their influence and presence, as well as wage cyberwarfare, thereby opening up a new front. War is no longer fought only on the battlefield against a known adversary but is increasingly against non-state actors and guerrilla-style tactics. It is waged in conjunction with diplomatic, economic, and technological means. As the global population and population density increases with urbanisation of cities, warfare will see a shift towards urban-centric operations. As resources continue to become sparse, and pressure increases from a growing population, conflicts will likely begin to be triggered over resources -- case in point is the Arctic arms race as the melting of the Arctic ice due to global warming opens up new routes within the Arctic Circle.

This defence outlook breaks down the defence environment into the air, land, and maritime domains. It analyses trends and drivers of these markets, as well as highlights current major programmes and the competitive environment in each domain. It also briefly discusses major technological areas and their respective impact on the defence industry. A total of 27 such areas are covered ranging from cloud computing and neuro-electronics to swarm robotics. Regional outlooks are also provided, detailing opportunities and on-going procurements. Each regional outlook covers the major geopolitical issues of the region, the defence outlook and economic standing of the top five countries in each region, the major procurement programmes, and the defence industry landscape amongst the top 100 defence industries (by revenue).

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical Overview
  • Growing Impact of COVID-19
  • Changing Concepts of Operation
  • Key Takeaways

Research Objectives and Methodology

  • Research Scope
  • Research Objectives and Questions

Geopolitics

  • Major Events in The Last 12 Months
  • General Global Trends
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • Spheres of Political Influence of the "Major" Powers
  • Spheres of Political Influence of the "Major" Powers (continued)
  • General Global Trends
  • Summary

COVID-19 Crisis

  • COVID-19 Overview
  • Impact to the Defence Industry-Supply Chains
  • Impact to the Defence Industry-Other
  • Key Action Points for the Industry

Global Economy

  • General Overview
  • COVID-19 Impact on the Economy
  • COVID-19 Impact on the Economy (continued)

Changing Concepts of Operation

  • Change in Nature and Characteristics of Various Threats
  • Counterterrorism
  • Cyberwarfare and Cybersecurity
  • Hybrid Warfare
  • Urban Warfare
  • Advancing Ballistic Missile Capabilities
  • Conflicts Over Resources

Air

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Air Domain-Generational Trends
  • Major Programmes Driving the Market

Land

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Combat Vehicle-Generational Trends
  • Major Programmes Driving the Market

Maritime

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Surface Vessel-Generational Trends and Drivers
  • Submarine-Generational Trends and Drivers
  • Technology Trends

Regional Analysis-Africa

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Industry
  • Strategic Conclusions

Asia-Pacific

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Asia-Pacific Defence Technology Industrial Base (DTIB)
  • Strategic Conclusions

Central & South Asia

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Existing Alliances and Relationships
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Central & South Asia DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Europe

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Existing Alliances and Relationships
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the European DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Middle East

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Middle East DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

North America

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the North America DTIB*
  • Strategic Conclusions

South America

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the South America DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Technology

  • Technology Overview
  • Technology Overview (continued)
  • Technology Overview (continued)

Growth Opportunities

  • Growth Opportunity 1-Mergers & Acquisitions
  • Growth Opportunity 2-Automation & Robotics
  • Strategic Imperatives for Growth

The Last Word

  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • Abbreviations
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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