米国経済と政策：2022年までの予測

当レポートでは、米国における経済・政策の展望について調査し、2020年の大統領選挙による影響、貿易の展望、米ドルの展望、および労働力の展望などについて分析しており、カテゴリー/世代別による支出パターンの分析をまとめています。

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調査範囲

用語・頭字語

2020年の大統領選挙・政策の影響

• 2020年の大統領選挙のプロセス・タイムライン
• トランプ政権2期目の可能性：新政策の期待
• 民主党の主要な大統領選候補者が重点を置く政策
• 大統領選候補者の重要課題：国境の壁と貿易戦争
• 大統領選候補者の重要課題：旧 vs. 新NAFTA
• 大統領選候補者の重要課題：賃金とメディケア
• 大統領選候補者の重要課題：トランプ減税の廃止

貿易の展望：貿易戦争、USMCA、およびBrexitの影響

• 貿易戦争：シナリオ展望
• 貿易戦争：232条自動車関税
• USMCA 貿易協定 (米国・メキシコ・カナダ協定) ：ナフタの代替
• USMCA 貿易協定：シナリオ展望
• USMCA 貿易協定：NAFTA vs. USMCA
• USMCA 貿易協定：産業への影響
• Brexit・米国：米国-英国貿易協定の潜在的な機能

米ドルの展望

• 貿易戦争から通貨戦争へ？

米国の支出パターン

• カテゴリー別の支出パターン
• 世代別の支出パターン

労働市場の展望

• 最も成長が速い米国の職業
• 失業率の展望

成長機会・推奨行動

結論

付録

A Potential Second Term for Trump Could See the Introduction of a Point-based System for Green Cards and a Favored Nation Drug Pricing

The US is witnessing some major trade policy shifts that are having a significant impact on the US and the global economy. The results of the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections and policies thereafter also stand to significantly influence the growth trajectory of the US economy. In the light of these anticipated events, research on this topic has been designed to better prepare decision makers for multiple scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.

Trade wars are having a detrimental impact on the world economy, with prolonged trade wars viewed as one of the biggest risks to world economic growth. This research analyses multiple trade war scenarios that can play out in the coming months and assesses the impact of trade wars on the US GDP growth. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is another major trade policy shift that has emerged in the last two years. It remains to see if the USMCA will be ratified by the US Congress, with potential ratification to especially benefit the US automotive industry. A trade deal with the UK is expected to come into force after a transition period (or after a no-deal Brexit takes place). The research assesses the features of a potential US-UK trade deal.

With US presidential elections scheduled for 2020, candidates are now highlighting some of their key policy proposals. It remains to be seen whether Trump will remain in power for another term, or whether the US will see a new President coming to power. A potential term two for Trump could see new policy changes such as a point-based system for green cards or favored nation drug pricing. If a Democratic candidate were to be elected to office, the US could see the reversal of 2017 tax cuts, with the possible imposition of higher taxes. As for ongoing trade wars, there is broad support for a tougher stance against China; the strategy of punitive tariffs has, however, been criticized for the damage it has wreaked on the US economy.

This research assesses the short-term outlook for the US dollar, and examines the scenarios of dollar devaluation, depreciation, and appreciation. Potential devaluation by the US will be accompanied by the risk of global currency wars.

American spending patterns and the outlook for the US labor market are the other key topics analyzed as part of this research.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What are the policy expectations from the key 2020 presidential candidates?

• What is the policy stance of candidates on key issues, such as trade wars and tax cuts?

• What is the outlook for US GDP growth?

• What is the scenario-based outlook for trade wars?

• How will potential 25% US tariffs affect the automotive industry?

• What impact will the USMCA trade deal have on US industries?

• What would a potential US-UK trade deal look like?

• Is the US dollar expected to appreciate, depreciate, or be devalued?

• How are American consumer spending patterns expected to evolve?

• What is the US labor market outlook?

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• US Economy and Policy Outlook-Research Overview
• Summary of Key Findings and Growth Opportunities
• New Policy Expectations for Key Presidential Candidates
• Scenario-Based Outlook for Trade
• Economic Outlook-Currency, Spending, and Unemployment

Research Scope

• Research Scope

Glossary and Acronyms

• Glossary
• Abbreviations and Acronyms

2020 Presidential Elections and Policy Impact

• 2020 Presidential Election Process and Timeline
• Trump Potential Term II-New Policy Expectations
• Trump Potential Term II-New Policy Expectations (continued)
• Policy Focus of Key Democratic Presidential Candidates
• Policy Focus of Key Democratic Presidential Candidates (continued)
• Presidential Candidates on Key Issues-Border Wall and Trade Wars
• Presidential Candidates on Key Issues-Old vs. New NAFTA
• Presidential Candidates on Key Issues-Wages and Medicare
• Presidential Candidates on Key Issues-Repeal of Trump Tax Cuts

Trade Outlook-Trade Wars, USMCA, and Brexit Impact

• Trade Wars-Scenario Outlook
• Trade Wars-Section 232 Automotive Tariffs
• USMCA Trade Deal-Replacement to NAFTA
• USMCA Trade Deal-Scenario Outlook
• USMCA Trade Deal-NAFTA vs. USMCA
• USMCA Trade Deal-Industry Impact
• Brexit and the US-Potential Features of a US-UK Trade Deal

Dollar Outlook

• Dollar Outlook-From Trade Wars to Currency Wars?

American Spending Patterns

• Category-wise Spending Patterns
• Generation-wise Spending Patterns

Labor Market Outlook

• Fastest Growing US Occupations
• Unemployment Outlook

Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

• Growth Opportunities
• Growth Opportunities (continued)

Key Conclusions

• Key Conclusions
• Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)

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