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表紙:世界の大型トラック向けディーゼルエンジン技術のロードマップ
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841536

世界の大型トラック向けディーゼルエンジン技術のロードマップ

Global Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap for Heavy-Duty Trucks

出版日: | 発行: Frost & Sullivan | ページ情報: 英文 136 Pages | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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世界の大型トラック向けディーゼルエンジン技術のロードマップ
出版日: 2019年04月25日
発行: Frost & Sullivan
ページ情報: 英文 136 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

電気自動車が推奨される傾向にもにもかかわらず、2030年における大型トラック販売ではディーゼル車が77.3%のシェアを占めると推計されています。新興諸国における法規制整備がOEMに大きな市場機会を示しています。

当レポートでは、世界の大型トラック向けディーゼルエンジン技術の開発ロードマップを調査し、技術の定義と概要、世界の排出・燃料経済・品質関連規制、先進ディーゼルエンジン技術の概要、主要地域・国別の関連基準と技術普及率、主要OEMのパワートレイン戦略、成長機会・成功戦略の分析、将来の展望などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 調査範囲・調査目的・背景・調査手法

第3章 定義

第4章 世界の排出・燃料経済・品質関連規制

第5章 先進ディーゼルエンジン技術:概要

  • エンジン技術パッケージと効果的な燃費削減
  • 技術的展望:排熱回収
  • 技術的展望:エンジンのミラーサイクル:Scania
  • 技術的展望:スプリットサイクルエンジン:Ricardo
  • 技術的展望:ダブルコンプレッションエクスパンションエンジン:Volvo
  • 技術的展望:対向ピストンエンジン:Achates Power
  • 技術的展望:多機能SCR-DPF後処理システム
  • 技術的展望:48Vシステム設計

第6章 パワートレイン関連法規制・技術の展望:北米

  • 法規制環境
  • GHG・燃費基準
  • パワートレイン構成・出荷数
  • 技術普及率:トラック
  • 技術普及率:トラクター
  • OEMパワートレイン技術導入推進因子

第7章 パワートレイン関連法規制・技術の展望:欧州

  • 法規制環境
  • 燃費基準
  • パワートレイン構成・出荷数
  • 技術普及率:トラック
  • 技術普及率:トラクター
  • OEMパワートレイン技術導入推進因子

第8章 パワートレイン関連法規制・技術の展望:中国

  • 法規制環境
  • 燃費基準
  • パワートレイン構成・出荷数
  • 技術普及率:トラック
  • 技術普及率:トラクター
  • OEMパワートレイン技術導入推進因子

第9章 パワートレイン関連法規制・技術の展望:インド

  • 法規制環境
  • 燃費基準
  • パワートレイン構成・出荷数
  • 技術普及率:トラック
  • 技術普及率:トラクター
  • OEMパワートレイン技術導入推進因子

第10章 エレクトリフィケーション技術の進捗

  • EV大型トラック市場の展望:主要地域別
  • 世界のPHEV導入予測
  • 世界のBEV導入予測
  • 世界のFCEV導入予測
  • OEMの新たな専用プラットフォーム:パワートレインの柔軟性の比較

第11-22章 主要OEMのパワートレイン戦略

  • AB VOLVO
  • NAVISTAR, INC.
  • VW GROUP (MAN SE)
  • VW GROUP (SCANIA)
  • PACCAR INC.
  • DAIMLER AG
  • CUMMINS INC
  • IVECO
  • ASHOK LEYLAND
  • TATA MOTORS
  • いすゞ自動車
  • 日野自動車
    • 展望・ハイライト
    • 技術分析

第23章 成長機会・推奨行動

  • 成長機会:注目の動向・企業
  • 成功・成長のための戦略的必須要件

第24章 総論・将来の展望

  • 総論・将来の展望
  • 総論:三大予測
  • 免責事項

第25章 付録

目次
Product Code: K2B1-18

Despite the Push for Electric Vehicles, Diesel Propulsion is Likely to Account for 77.3% of HD Truck Sales in 2030. Upcoming Regulations in Developing Countries providing strong Opportunities for OEMs

Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape the powertrain strategies of OEMs over the next decade. This study provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. North America is adopting GHG regulations and will next focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India will shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; it will have a fuel efficiency regulation in place from 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases - 2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023.

These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced aftertreatment systems, and electrification. In addition, novel engine architecture such as opposed piston engines, split cycle engines, double compression expansion engines, and the Miller cycle will be explored to improve the brake thermal efficiency of diesel engines.

Falling battery prices, broader incentive policies, and charging infrastructure developments will boost the trend of electrification. Battery pack prices are expected to fall below $100 per kWh by 2023, with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With growing battery availability and technology-readiness, fully electric vehicles will gain prominence and will be largely used across all regions by 2025. OEMs have also announced plans to manufacture electric trucks and range-extended powertrain. Fuel cell technology will gain prominence after 2022 due to the advantages of reduced component weight and packaging size.

North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. Further, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from tier 1 engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.

Research Scope:

The study aims to identify the major powertrain strategies that will be deployed by OEMs to meet forthcoming fuel efficiency and GHG regulations.

Research Highlights:

  • Provide a strategic overview of the regional regulations that control emission and help to improve fuel efficiency and quality in North America, Europe, China, and India
  • Discuss the technology penetration of advanced powertrain technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles
  • Provide a technology outlook of the advanced diesel engine technologies used in HD vehicles
  • Furnish a strategic overview of electrification uptake across HD vehicles
  • Discuss powertrain outlook, penetration, and technology deep dive of global HD OEMs
  • Provide strategic recommendations and conclusions for OEMs in the HD truck market

Key Issues Addressed:

  • What are the key tailpipe emission and fuel efficiency and economy regulations shaping the dynamics of the powertrain strategies of global OEMs?
  • What is the technology penetration of advanced powertrain technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles in North America, Europe, China, and India?
  • What is the technology outlook of advanced diesel engine technologies?
  • What are the key developments in terms of the electrification of global HD trucks?
  • What are the key powertrain strategies of global HD truck OEMs?

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Key Takeaways
  • Diesel Engine Powertrain Trends for 2025 and Beyond
  • HD Vehicle Emission Regulations Outlook
  • GHG/Fuel Economy Regulations Outlook
  • HD Truck Powertrain Overview
  • Diesel versus Electric Long-Haul Truck TCO Comparison
  • Global Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Technology Penetration versus Region-Tractor Segment
  • Key OEM Diesel Powertrain Strategies
  • Regulatory Environment and OEM Compliance Strategy

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

3. DEFINITIONS

  • Definitions of Key Technologies
  • Definitions of Key Technologies (continued)

4. GLOBAL EMISSION AND FUEL ECONOMY AND QUALITY REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

  • Global Regulations-Tailpipe and Fuel Economy and Quality
  • Global Tractor Truck Standards for CO2 Reduction
  • Global Emission Regulation Limits
  • Powertrain Technologies for Fuel Efficiency Improvements
  • Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential - Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor
  • Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential: Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor-Engine Technology
  • Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential: Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor-Engine Technology (continued)
  • Technology Penetration versus Region - Tractor and Rigid

5. ADVANCED DIESEL ENGINE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW

  • Engine Technology Packages and Effective Fuel Consumption Reduction
  • Technology Outlook-Waste Heat Recovery
  • Technology Outlook-Miller Cycle in Engines: Scania
  • Technology Outlook-Split Cycle Engine: Ricardo
  • Technology Outlook-Double Compression Expansion Engine: Volvo
  • Technology Outlook-Opposed Piston Engine: Achates Power
  • Technology Outlook-Multi-functional SCR-DPF Aftertreatment Systems
  • Technology Outlook-48V System Design

6. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK -NORTH AMERICA

  • Regulatory Environment-North America
  • GHG and Fuel Economy Standards-North America
  • CARB Ultra Low NOx Regulations-Impact on Powertrain
  • North American Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Ultra Low Nox-Enabling Technologies
  • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: North America
  • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: North America
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-North America

7. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK-EUROPE

  • Regulatory Environment-Europe
  • HD Vehicle CO2 Standards-Europe
  • European Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: Europe
  • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: Europe
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-Europe

8. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK-CHINA

  • Regulatory Environment-China
  • China's Fuel Efficiency Standards
  • Chinese Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: China
  • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: China
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-China

9. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK-INDIA

  • Regulatory Environment-India
  • Fuel Consumption Standards-India
  • Indian Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: India
  • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: India
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-India

10. PROGRESSION OF ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY

  • Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions-2025
  • Global Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Adoption Perspective
  • Global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption Perspective
  • Global Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Adoption Perspective
  • OEM New Dedicated Platforms-Powertrain Flexibility Comparison

11. GLOBAL OEM POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES-POWERTRAIN STRATEGY: AB VOLVO

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Volvo
  • Technology Deep Dive-Volvo

12. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-NAVISTAR, INC.

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Navistar
  • Technology Deep Dive-Navistar

13. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-VW GROUP (MAN SE)

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights - MAN SE
  • Technology Deep Dive-MAN SE

14. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-VW GROUP (SCANIA)

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Scania
  • Technology Deep Dive-Scania

15. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-PACCAR INC.

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-PACCAR
  • Technology Deep Dive-PACCAR

16. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-DAIMLER AG

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Daimler
  • Technology Deep Dive-Daimler

17. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-CUMMINS INC

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Cummins
  • Technology Deep Dive-Cummins

18. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-IVECO

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-IVECO
  • Technology Deep Dive-IVECO

19. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-ASHOK LEYLAND

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-ASHOK LEYLAND
  • Technology Deep Dive-ASHOK LEYLAND

20. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-TATA MOTORS

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Tata Motors
  • Technology Deep Dive-Tata Motors

21. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-ISUZU MOTORS LIMITED

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights- Isuzu
  • Technology Deep Dive-Isuzu

22. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY-HINO MOTORS, LTD.

  • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Hino Motors
  • Technology Deep Dive-Hino Motors

23. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPANIES TO ACTION

  • Growth Opportunity-Breakthrough Trends and Companies
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

24. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

25. APPENDIX

  • Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used
  • Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used (continued)
  • Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used (continued)
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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