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北米における電気トラックのTCO (総保有コスト) 分析・事例:2017-2030年

TCO Analysis and Case for Electric Trucks in North America, 2017-2030

発行 Frost & Sullivan 商品コード 797400
出版日 ページ情報 英文 93 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=110.56円で換算しております。
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北米における電気トラックのTCO (総保有コスト) 分析・事例:2017-2030年 TCO Analysis and Case for Electric Trucks in North America, 2017-2030
出版日: 2019年02月19日 ページ情報: 英文 93 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、北米における電気トラックのTCO (総保有コスト) について、4つのセグメント別 (都市部配送用トラック、長距離トラック、ごみ収集車、ターミナルトラクター/ヤードトラック) に分析しており、各セグメントにおけるディーゼルおよび全電気式トラックのリース、メンテナンスおよび燃料補給または充電コストの分析、燃費、バッテリー価格、ディーゼルコスト、走行距離、および省エネ効率などを比較しています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 調査範囲・目的・背景・手法

第3章 オペレーションコストの内訳:ディーゼル・バッテリー・充電の予測

  • オペレーションコストの内訳:前提条件
  • 1ガロンあたりのディーゼルコスト:予測
  • 1kWhあたりのバッテリー価格:予測
  • 1kWhあたりの充電コスト:ピーク時・オフピーク時

第4章 都市部における配送用トラック

  • 車両の特徴
  • トラックの残存価額:ディーゼル/電気
  • 燃費
  • 燃料効率・範囲・バッテリー容量
  • ディーゼル・電気トラックの価格
  • 充電コスト:前提条件
  • 1kWhあたりの充電コスト
  • 1マイルあたりのリースコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりのメンテナンスコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりの燃料補給/充電コスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 都市部配送用トラックの損益分岐点:ディーゼル・電気配送用トラック
  • 4年間のTCOの比較
  • 配送用トラック1マイルあたりのTCO比較:ディーゼル・電気

第5章 長距離トラック

  • 車両の特徴
  • 長距離トラックの残存価額:ディーゼル/電気
  • 燃費
  • 燃料効率・範囲・バッテリー容量
  • ディーゼル・電気トラックの価格
  • 充電コスト:前提条件
  • 1kWhあたりの充電コスト
  • 1マイルあたりのリースコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりのメンテナンスコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりの燃料補給/充電コスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 損益分岐点:長距離トラック
  • 4年間のTCOの比較
  • 長距離トラック1マイルあたりのTCO比較:ディーゼル/電気

第6章 ごみ収集車

  • 車両の特徴
  • ごみ収集車の残存価額:ディーゼル/電気
  • 燃費
  • 燃料効率・範囲・バッテリー容量
  • ディーゼル・電気トラックの価格
  • 充電コスト:前提条件
  • 1kWhあたりの充電コスト
  • 1マイルあたりのリースコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりのメンテナンスコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりの燃料補給/充電コスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 損益分岐点:ごみ収集車
  • 4年間のTCOの比較
  • ごみ収集車1マイルあたりのTCO比較:ディーゼル/電気

第7章 ヤードトラック

  • 車両の特徴
  • ヤードトラックの残存価額:ディーゼル/電気
  • 燃費
  • 燃料効率・範囲・バッテリー容量
  • ディーゼル・電気トラックの価格
  • 充電コスト:前提条件
  • 1kWhあたりの充電コスト
  • 1マイルあたりのリースコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりのメンテナンスコスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 1マイルあたりの燃料補給/充電コスト:ディーゼル・電気トラック
  • 損益分岐点:ヤードトラック
  • 4年間のTCOの比較
  • ヤードトラック1マイルあたりのTCO比較:ディーゼル/電気

第8章 成長機会

  • 成長機会
  • 戦略インペラティブ

第9章 結論

第10章 付録

目次
Product Code: K265-18

Stringent Emission Regulations, Falling Battery Prices, and Lower Maintenance Costs to Drive Electrification in the Trucking Industry

This Frost & Sullivan research indicates that the trucking industries in North America and Europe are increasingly facing a shortage of skilled drivers and there are concerns regarding the economic outlook and operating margins. The total cost of ownership (TCO), downtime reduction, regulation compliance, driver shortage, and equipment utilisation are emerging as decisive factors in the adoption of advanced truck technologies by fleet managers. Owing to a likely tightening of emission regulations in various regions, fleets will look to adopt fuel-efficient technologies that deliver value-added benefits such as safety and increased life. Alternative powertrains are also entering the commercial trucking space, even though fleets are apprehensive of the potential and feasibility of electrification in the truck industry due to the high prices. However, falling battery prices and growing consumer awareness are expected to encourage electrification in the industry.

Incumbents such as Nikola and Tesla have disrupted the trucking industry by announcing a slew of products in the electric truck segment, while traditional truck manufacturers have been slow to promote electrification as a viable alternative to diesel. Apart from Tesla and Nikola, players such as Orange EV and Wrightspeed too have shown potential in the vocational truck segments.

Research Highlights:

The study analyses the operational costs of trucking in four different segments - urban delivery, long haul, refuse trucks, and terminal tractors/yard trucks. The models employed in the study compare the lease, maintenance, and refueling or charging costs between the diesel and fully electric variants in each of the segments. The total costs of operation are assessed for the first four years of the lifecycle. Fuel economy, battery prices, diesel costs, range, and energy efficiency of batteries are a few of the factors that are evaluated and forecast for different truck applications. After comparing the costs and the cost per mile of diesel and electric trucks, the study revealed that the electric variant of refuse trucks cost much less to operate than their diesel trucks. Among electric trucks in the other segments, yard and urban delivery trucks achieved parity in cost per mile in the short to medium term. Long haul trucks are expected to adopt electrification slower than other segments as parity is expected to be achieved only by 2027/2028. The lower operational costs of electric trucks will boost electrification in the North American medium and heavy duty segments by 2025.

As GHG emission mandates become more stringent and companies look to provide cleaner trucks, electrification will gain popularity. Falling battery prices, rapid technology developments in electrification, and huge market potential will attract new technology players and startups to the electric commercial vehicle space, while traditional truck manufacturers will be compelled to add electric vehicles to their product portfolios.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Executive Summary-Driving Factors
  • Executive Summary-Declining Battery Costs
  • Executive Summary-Electric Truck Portfolio of Key OEMs
  • Executive Summary-Comparison of Breakeven Points

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study Will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

3. COSTS OF OPERATION BREAKDOWN-FORECASTS OF DIESEL, BATTERY, AND CHARGING

  • Costs of Operation-Breakdown and Assumptions
  • Diesel Cost Per Gallon-Forecast Until 2030
  • Battery Price Per kWh-Forecast Until 2030
  • Peak and Off-peak Charging Costs per kWh

4. URBAN DELIVERY TRUCKS

  • Vehicle Attributes-Urban Delivery Trucks
  • Residual Vales for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Fuel Economy
  • Energy Efficiency, Range, and Battery Capacity
  • Price of Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Electric Charging Costs-Assumptions
  • Charging Cost per kWh
  • Leasing Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Maintenance Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Refueling/Charging Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Breakeven Point for Urban Delivery Trucks
  • Comparison of TCO Over 4 Years-Diesel and Electric Delivery Trucks
  • Diesel and Electric Urban Delivery Trucks-Comparison of TCO Per Mile

5. LONG-HAUL TRUCKS

  • Vehicle Attributes-Long Haul Trucks
  • Residual Vales for Diesel and Electric Long Haul Trucks
  • Fuel Economy (mpg)
  • Energy Efficiency, Range, and Battery Capacity
  • Price of Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Electric Charging Costs-Assumptions
  • Charging Cost per kWh
  • Leasing Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Maintenance Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Refueling/Charging Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Breakeven Point for Long Haul Trucks
  • Comparison of TCO Over 4 Years-Diesel and Electric Long Haul Trucks
  • Diesel and Electric Long Haul Trucks-Comparison of TCO Per Mile

6. REFUSE TRUCKS

  • Vehicle Attributes-Refuse Trucks
  • Residual Vales for Diesel and Electric Refuse Trucks
  • Fuel Economy
  • Energy Efficiency, Range, and Battery Capacity
  • Price of Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Electric Charging Costs-Assumptions
  • Charging Cost per kWh
  • Leasing Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Maintenance Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Refueling/Charging Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Breakeven Point for Refuse Trucks
  • Comparison of TCO Over 4 Years-Diesel and Electric Refuse Trucks
  • Diesel and Electric Refuse Trucks-Comparison of TCO Per Mile

7. YARD TRUCKS

  • Vehicle Attributes-Yard Trucks
  • Residual Vales for Diesel and Electric Yard Trucks
  • Fuel Economy
  • Energy Efficiency, Range, and Battery Capacity
  • Price of Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Electric Charging Costs-Assumptions
  • Charging Cost per kWh
  • Leasing Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Maintenance Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Refueling/Charging Costs Per Mile for Diesel and Electric Trucks
  • Breakeven Point for Yard Trucks
  • Comparison of TCO Over 4 Years-Diesel and Electric Yard Trucks
  • Diesel and Electric Yard Trucks-Comparison of TCO Per Mile

8. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

  • Growth Opportunity
  • Strategic Imperatives for Commercial Vehicle Market

9. CONCLUSIONS

  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

10. APPENDIX

  • Acronyms Used
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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