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市場調査レポート

中型・大型商用車の世界市場の見通し:2019年

Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2019

発行 Frost & Sullivan 商品コード 621191
出版日 ページ情報 英文 128 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=107.36円で換算しております。
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中型・大型商用車の世界市場の見通し:2019年 Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2019
出版日: 2019年04月12日 ページ情報: 英文 128 Pages
概要

2019年は、電気トラックとデジタルサービスを中心とした新しいビジネスモデルの進化において、決定的な年となります。

当レポートでは、世界の中型・大型トラック市場について調査分析し、市場規模、市場予測、新製品の発売予測、主要国の動向、新技術、普及率などについて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 調査範囲・目的・背景・手法

第3章 世界経済の見通し

  • 世界経済の動向
  • 世界経済の予測
  • 予測:先進経済国
  • 予測:新興経済国
  • 世界のGDP成長率スナップショット
  • 世界の急成長経済国20ヶ国

第4章 世界の中型・大型トラック市場の見通し

  • 世界の中型・大型トラック市場予測:重量セグメント別
  • 中型・大型トラックOEM販売実績
  • パワートレイン技術予測
  • 代替燃料パワートレイン市場:地域別市場シェア分析
  • 主な市場紹介:代替パワートレインを促進

第5章 コネクテッドトラックテレマティクス市場:主な発展

  • コネクテッドトラック:主な特徴
  • 主な問題点
  • コネクテッドトラックの世界のインストールベース:地域別
  • 地域別の中型・大型トラックテレマティクスの普及率
  • 世界の中型・大型OEMのコネクテッドトラックソリューション
  • OEMソリューションと専用プロバイダー、など

第6章 デジタル貨物仲介業務の見通し

  • 仲介業務の市場規模
  • デジタル技術の記録的な年
  • デジタル貨物仲介業務の世界情勢
  • 世界の自動オンデマンド貨物仲介業務ソリューション (上位10)
  • 新しいデジタル仲介業務ビジネスモデル
  • 貨物市場における固有の特徴
  • リアルタイムの課題
  • ケーススタディ

第7章 電動パワートレインの見通し

  • 電気トラック市場の主な発展
  • 電気トラックの技術
  • リチウムイオン電池が有利な利益を生む
  • バッテリー生産能力
  • 電気トラック市場:主要地域の見通し
  • 中国:製品ポートフォリオと発売ロードマップ
  • 北米:製品ポートフォリオと発売ロードマップ
  • 欧州:製品ポートフォリオと発売ロードマップ

第8章 従来型パワートレインの見通し

  • 世界規制の見通し
  • VECTO
  • ディーゼルエンジンパワートレインの動向
  • ディーゼルエンジンパワートレイン:技術の普及率
  • 代替ディーゼルエンジンアーキテクチャー
  • 主なOEMパワートレイン戦略

第9章 トラックの自動運転

  • 自動運転トラックの市場価格
  • バリューマップ:エコシステムセグメント別
  • 自動運転トラックのエコシステム
  • 高速道路の自動運転ロードマップ
  • 米国の主な州における自動化CV試験の立法イニシアチブ
  • 自動化CV試験に対するEU加盟国の取り組み
  • アジア太平洋地域・オセアニアの自動化車両試験への取り組み

第10章 地域別の市場フォーカス:中国

第11章 地域別の市場フォーカス:インド

第12章 地域別の市場フォーカス:インドネシア

第13章 地域別の市場フォーカス:マレーシア

第14章 成長機会とC2A

  • 成長機会
  • 戦略的必須事項

第15章 結論と見通し

第16章 付録

目次
Product Code: K353-18

2019 to be a Defining Year for the Evolution of New Business Models Around Electric Trucks and Digital Services

Global medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) trucks sales grew 4.5% in 2018 from 2017 due to sustained growth in top truck markets of North America, China (Heavy duty truck sales stayed above 1 million mark), along with continual growth in India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia. In 2019, growth in North America, South America, Russia, India, Indonesia is expected to continue to be positive, while China, although over the 1 million mark in 2019, will be a smaller market than in 2018. However, speedy implementation of "Blue Sky" regulations, announced in July 2018, resulting in the rapid phasing out of 1 Million China III compliant trucks in 2019 itself can boost medium-heavy duty (MD-HD) truck sales in 2019.

Electric powertrain, autonomous driving, connected devices and digital services continued to receive great interest (and investor dollars) in 2018 and is expected to continue to rise into 2019. While electric powertrains are beginning to be adopted in niche applications like refuse trucks where their total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) is already lower than diesel powered counterparts, the TCO parity in other applications will take as much as 2025. Autonomous technology too while fast developing with technology giants like NVIDIA throwing their weight behind it combining with start-ups like tuSmiple, drive.ai and Embark, SAE Level4 autonomous is still a decade out. Telematics devices however are experiencing double digit growth year-after-year including in TRIAD markets as well as China. By end of 2019, Among digital services, alongside the continued growth of telematics devices and services, digital freight brokerage solutions also received a hug boost with nearly $2.346 Billion invested across North America, South America, Europe, China, India and Russia.

Although battery electric powertrains receive great attention in trade shows and new channels,natural gas (NG) is a quietly growing alternative powertrain option especially in Europe and China where there is great regulatory pressure to cut emissions. Even in North America, roll out of California air resource board's (CARB) ultra-low NOx regulations will propel NG adoption in MD-HD trucks since current diesel engines cannot meet the proposed NOx limits. While 2017 was a very good year for NG trucks in China since diesel cost 30% more than NG. Despite the fact that LNG truck cost about 60,000 yuan higher than diesel truck, truck fleets estimated they could save about 3000 yuan per trip on back hauls and hence make good the extra cost within an year. However towards end of 2017 government policy forced industrial power generation to switch from coal to NG, resulting in the increase of LNG price by 90% from $5.8 in august 2017 to $ 11 in January 2018. This resulted in China NG MD-HD truck sales crashing nearly 62% in 2018 to 34,267 units compared to 90,047 units in 2017.

Some of the key trends to watch out for in 2019 will be the proliferation of digital freight brokerage solutions, increased funding and employee base electric and autonomous driving solutions, alongside a slew of new product launches by truck OEMs which include Freightliner Cascadia Level 2 autonomous vehicle in North America as well as IVECO New Stralis NP460 LNG in Europe.

This study covers sales forecasts for 2019 and trends into 2025 across- North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11 and rest-of-the-world.

Key Issues Addressed:

  • What will be the size of the global truck market in 2019?
  • Which truck markets are expected to grow in 2019 and which will contract? Why?
  • What are some of the new product launches expected in 2019?
  • What are some of the key trucking related trends in 2018's leading non-TRIAD markets- China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia?
  • What are the key new technologies in powertrain, components, and soft technologies?
  • What is the projected penetration of powertrain technologies across regions?

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 2018 Key Highlights
  • Global GDP and Commercial Trucks-Growth Outlook 2019
  • Global GDP and Commercial Trucks-Growth Outlook 2019 (continued)
  • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast-Overview
  • TCO Comparison for Breakeven of Electrification
  • CES 2019-Truckers at a Consumer Technology Platform
  • Top 6 Predictions of 2019

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Key OEMs Compared in this Study

3. 2019 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

  • Top 2018 Global Economic Trends
  • Top 2019 Global Economic Predictions
  • Top 2019 Global Economic Predictions (continued)
  • Top 2019 Predictions-Advanced Economies
  • Top 2019 Predictions-Emerging Economies
  • World GDP Growth Snapshot
  • World's 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2018 and 2019

4. GLOBAL MD-HD TRUCKS MARKET OUTLOOK

  • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast-By Weight Segment
  • 2018 MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
  • 2019 Powertrain Technology Forecast
  • Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market-Regional Market Share Analysis
  • Key 2019 Market Introductions-Thrust on Alternative Powertrains

5. 2018 CONNECTED TRUCK TELEMATICS MARKET-KEY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Connected Trucks-Key Features
  • Identifying Key Industry Pain Points-How Telematics Can Help
  • Global Installed Base of Connected Trucks by Region-A Snapshot
  • Regional MD-HD Truck Telematics Penetration
  • Global MD-HD OEMs' Connected Truck Solutions-A Snapshot
  • OEM Solutions and Dedicated Providers-Synergy Developments
  • OEM Solutions and Dedicated Providers-Synergy Developments (continued)
  • Tier 1 Suppliers' Continued Run in the Connected Fleet Industry

6. DIGITAL FREIGHT BROKERAGE OUTLOOK

  • Brokerage Market Size 2018-2019
  • 2018-A Record Year for Digital Technologies
  • Global Landscape of Digital Freight Brokerage
  • Top 10 Global Automated On-demand Freight Brokerage Solutions
  • New Digital Brokerage Business Models
  • Unique Characteristics of the Freight Market
  • Challenges in Real-time
  • Case Studies

7. ELECTRIC POWERTRAIN OUTLOOK

  • 2018-Key Developments in the Electric Truck Market
  • Technology in Electric Trucks
  • Lithium-ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains
  • Battery Production Capacity to 2025
  • Electric Truck Market-2025 Outlook of Key Regions
  • China-Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • China-Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued
  • North America-Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • North America-Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued)
  • Europe-Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

8. CONVENTIONAL POWERTRAIN OUTLOOK

  • Global Regulations Outlook-GHG and Tailpipe Emissions
  • Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO)
  • Diesel Engine Powertrain Trends for 2019 and Beyond
  • Diesel Engine Powertrain-Technology Penetration
  • Alternate Diesel Engine Architectures
  • Key OEM Powertrain Strategies

9. AUTONOMOUS DRIVING IN TRUCKING

  • Autonomous Truck Market Value-2025, 2030 and 2035
  • Value Map by Ecosystem Segments
  • Autonomous Truck Driving Ecosystem
  • Autonomous On-highway Driving Roadmap
  • Legislative Initiatives for Key US State Testing of Automated CVs
  • EU Member States' Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs
  • Asia-Pacific and Oceania Initiatives for Testing of Automated Vehicles

10. REGIONAL MARKET FOCUS-CHINA

  • Key Growth Opportunities in Chinese Truck Market
  • China Tailpipe Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards
  • China Commercial Vehicle Market-Powertrain Split
  • Alternate Powertrain Charging Stations in China Provinces
  • MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
  • Truck Segment Analysis-Price Positioning of Commercial Trucks

11. REGIONAL MARKET FOCUS-INDIA

  • Key Growth Opportunities in Indian Truck Market
  • Upcoming Truck Regulations in Indian CV Market
  • Future Industrial Corridors in Indian Market
  • Telematics in CVs
  • Industry Structure-Goods Carrier
  • MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
  • Case Study-Tata Motors Growth in Market Share
  • Case Study- Man Truck and Bus (MTB) Exits India

12. REGIONAL MARKET FOCUS-INDONESIA

  • Total Commercial Vehicles Market Sales Snapshot
  • Commercial Vehicles Market-Sales Breakdown by Region
  • Commercial Vehicles Fleet Type and Size
  • Emission Norms and Legislations
  • MD Segment-Key Best Selling Models
  • HD Segment-Key Best Selling Models

13. REGIONAL MARKET FOCUS-MALAYSIA

  • Total Commercial Vehicles Market Sales Snapshot
  • Commercial Vehicles Market-Sales Breakdown by States
  • Commercial Vehicles Fleet Type and Size
  • Emission Norms and Legislations
  • MD Truck Segment-Key Best Selling Models
  • HD Truck Segment-Key Best Selling Models

14. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPANIES TO ACTION

  • Growth Opportunity 1-M&A, JVs in Electric Ecosystem
  • Strategic Imperatives

15. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK

  • Key Conclusions and 2019 Outlook
  • Legal Disclaimer

16. APPENDIX

  • Table of Acronyms Used
  • Upcoming Topics in the Commercial Vehicles Research Program
  • Legacy Content in the Commercial Vehicles Research Program
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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