Global Economic Outlook, 2019
|発行||Frost & Sullivan||商品コード||489312|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 77 Pages
世界のGDP成長率は、国際貿易の活発化や投資拡大、強力な国内需要に支えられて、一定速度での成長し続けています。2017年の成長率は3.6%、2018年は3.7%に達する見通しです。世界経済にマイナスの影響を及ぼす主な出来事として、英国のEUからの脱退 (Brexit) や、湾岸諸国での付加価値税 (VAT) 導入などが挙げられますが、その影響はごく限られた規模に留まる見通しです。
当レポートでは、世界各地の景気動向の現状と見通しについて調査し、世界全体のGDP・インフレ率・石油生産量などの動向見通しや、地域別・主要国の詳細動向、昨今の世界的事件・災害の影響度、自由貿易協定 (FTA：NAFTA、TPPなど) が各国経済に及ぼす影響などを分析しています。
World GDP Growth to Weaken from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% to 2019, With Intensified Trade Wars to Pull Down 2019 Growth Further to 3.3%
What is the outlook for the world economy in 2019? How will events such as Brexit and trade wars influence the global economic outlook? This analysis has been designed to answer these questions and more by providing a concise summary of key global and regional economic developments and forecasts. Regions covered as part of the study include North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Each regional economic outlook section focuses on the GDP growth outlook for key economies, impact analysis of key economic developments, and top economic predictions.
Although global GDP growth was steady in 2018, the growth is expected to dip in 2019 in the light of factors such as trade tensions, interest rate hikes, and emerging market capital outflows. A major risk to the global economic growth is the intensification of trade wars in 2019, with trade war escalation to pull down GDP growth further than projected. Apart from the United States and China that are experiencing the direct negative effects of the trade wars, major economies such as Germany and Japan are also at risk owing to indirect effects from the US-China trade wars. This study factors in three likely trade war scenarios for 2019, namely the continuation scenario, the intensification scenario, and the conclusion scenario, with the continuation scenario (continuation of tariffs imposed in 2018) carrying the highest probability of occurrence at present. Consequently, 2019 projections have been developed based on the continuation scenario (unless otherwise mentioned).
The last few weeks of 2018 saw several major developments that will have important ratifications on the 2019 economic outlook, such as the finalization of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the decision of the OPEC to pursue production cuts in 2019. This report factors the implications of these and other events on the global economy as well as on specific concerned countries. Business can leverage this study to understand growth trajectories and the implications of economic developments, and thereby better plan and strategize for 2019. The base year for the report is 2017, with estimates for 2018, and forecasts for 2019.