インド市場のマクロ経済的機会：2030年

過去10年間、インド経済は力強い経済成長を遂げ、貧困率の低下、堅調な消費拡大、大規模な中産階級をもたらしました。2019年の経済状況の減速、2020年のCOVID-19の大流行による経済的な落ち込みを後回しにして、インド経済は徐々に持続的な成長軌道に戻り、2021～2022年は8.2%の成長が予測されています。

当レポートでは、インド市場のマクロ経済的機会について調査分析し、戦略的必須要件、マクロ経済環境、マクロ経済の見通し、社会人口統計学的傾向、業界固有の成長機会等に関する情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか？
• 戦略的必須要件 8（TM）
• インド経済に対する上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine (TM)を促進

インドのマクロ経済環境

• インドの経済環境-概要
• 主要な経済指標
• 成長の促進要因
• 成長の抑制要因

インドのマクロ経済の見通し：2030年

• GDP成長見通し
• インフレと金融政策の見通し
• 労働市場の動向
• 貿易の見通し
• 主要な経済的リスク：2030年

政策の推進による機会：2030年

• グリーンエネルギーとモビリティ
• ICTサービスとデジタルプラットフォーム
• インフラ、物流、および製造
• 民営化とFDI
• 影響分析-政策イニシアチブと経済成長：2030年

社会人口統計学的傾向：2030年

• 人口転換
• 消費動向
• 都市化とメガシティ
• 仕事の未来

業界固有の成長機会：2030年

• 不動産
• 観光
• ヘルスケア
• ラグジュアリー市場
• 耐久消費財
• 業界固有の成長分野の全体的な成長の可能性

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会1：グリーンエネルギーへの転換をを加速する2070年までのカーボンニュートラル目標とエネルギー価格ショック
• 成長機会2：地元の製造業を推進するための生産インセンティブと提案された自由貿易協定
• 成長機会3：デジタル経済の成長を促進するためのユニバーサルインターネットアクセスの推進
• 成長機会4：不動産需要を増やす人口転換と可処分所得の増加
• 成長機会5：可処分所得の増加と接続性の向上が観光収入を促進
• 図表リスト
• 免責事項

Policy Impetus and Shifting Socioeconomic Trends to Incubate New Growth Opportunities across Green Energy, Digitalization, Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Healthcare

Over the previous decade, the Indian economy registered robust economic growth that resulted in lower poverty rates, strong consumption growth, and a sizeable middle class. Putting behind the economic fallout from slowing economic conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 and 2020, respectively, the Indian economy is gradually returning to a sustained growth trajectory with an 8.2% growth forecast for 2021-22. As external headwinds to economic growth mount, will rapid digitalization, a revamped foreign trade policy, manufacturing support, and an infrastructure boost sustain high economic growth beyond 2022 or will geopolitical complexities and jobless growth undermine India's consumption and investment growth over the medium term? Which new sectors and industries will emerge as the harbingers of growth, driven by policy impetus and shifting socioeconomic factors?

This economic piece weaves pivotal policy initiatives, the demographic transformation, socioeconomic shifts, and the changing global landscape into India's 2030 growth story. It provides insight into the economy's future growth potential, inflation risks, monetary policy movements, the labor market transformation, and trade policy objectives until 2030. It also highlights internal and external challenges inimical to sustained economic performance, including high external fuel dependence, rising external debt, and climate change.

A key feature of this piece is the analysis of policy priorities to identify the industries poised for rapid innovation and growth. By providing a comprehensive overview of policy incentives and targets, this research service offers insight into investment opportunities in green energy, manufacturing, digitalization, infrastructure, and logistics. Besides policy priorities, insight into India's sociodemographic transition is provided, including population composition, urbanization, consumption patterns, and the future of work (the growing gig economy is also covered). The research service also discusses high-growth sectors, including growth in affordable real estate, luxury market trade, healthcare, and tourism, based on the confluence of demographic, social, and economic transition over the next 8 years.

Through a comprehensive analysis of policy priorities, the macroeconomic outlook, and socioeconomic trends until 2030, Frost & Sullivan details the economic growth opportunities for diverse stakeholders (including businesses, investors, and policymakers), even as both India and the global economy face increased uncertainties due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. This study defines the context of these opportunities and the call to action for companies that should be leveraged to drive growth. Similarly, it identifies and elaborates on the top strategic imperatives for businesses, which will be the key to ensuring growth during these rapidly transformative times.

Key Issues Addressed:

• Will India be a $5 trillion economy by 2030?

• What is the medium-term inflation and monetary policy outlook for the country?

• What is India's labor market outlook until 2030?

• What is the trade and foreign policy outlook for the country until 2030?

• What are some of the key challenges that can pose downside risks to sustainable economic growth over the medium term?

• Which growth opportunities will emerge from the policy focus on green energy, manufacturing, logistics, and infrastructure?

• How will sociodemographic factors, including population composition, urbanization, consumption, and occupation, evolve over the medium term?

• Which growth opportunities will emerge from the confluence of social, demographic, and economic factors?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Indian Economy
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

India's Macroeconomic Environment

• India's Economic Environment-An Overview
• Key Economic Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints

India's Macroeconomic Outlook, 2030

• GDP Growth Outlook
• Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
• Labor Market Trends
• Trade Outlook
• Key Economic Risks, 2030

Opportunities from Policy Impetus, 2030

• Green Energy and Mobility
• ICT Services and Digital Platforms
• Infrastructure, Logistics, and Manufacturing
• Infrastructure, Logistics, and Manufacturing (continued)
• Privatization and FDI
• Impact Analysis-Policy Initiatives and Economic Growth, 2030
• Impact Analysis-Policy Initiatives and Economic Growth, 2030 (continued)

Sociodemographic Trends, 2030

• Demographic Transition
• Consumption Trends
• Urbanization and Mega Cities
• The Future of Work

Industry-specific Growth Opportunities, 2030

• Real Estate
• Tourism
• Healthcare
• Luxury Market
• Consumer Durables
• Overall Growth Potential of Industry-specific Growth Areas

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-2070 Carbon Neutrality Targets and Energy Price Shocks to Accelerate the Green Energy Transition
• Growth Opportunity 1-2070 Carbon Neutrality Targets and Energy Price Shocks to Accelerate the Green Energy Transition (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Production Incentives and Proposed Free Trade Deals to Drive Local Manufacturing
• Growth Opportunity 2-Production Incentives and Proposed Free Trade Deals to Drive Local Manufacturing (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-Universal Internet Access Push to Spur Growth of the Digital Economy
• Growth Opportunity 3-Universal Internet Access Push to Spur Growth of the Digital Economy (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 4-Demographic Transition and Rising Disposable Incomes to Increase the Demand for Real Estate
• Growth Opportunity 4-Demographic Transition and Rising Disposable Incomes to Increase the Demand for Real Estate (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 5-Rising Disposable Incomes and Improved Connectivity to Drive Tourism Revenues
• Growth Opportunity 5-Rising Disposable Incomes and Improved Connectivity to Drive Tourism Revenues (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
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