NATO加盟国の防衛：成長機会

ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動が、国際防衛システムに与えている混乱は、世界の防衛産業の変化にも拍車をかけています。この軍事行動は、過去20年間で世界の防衛市場に最も影響を与えた出来事であり、特に中国の潜在的脅威に直面して、戦略的な国家安全保障と軍備増強の計画プロセスの真っ只中にいるNATO加盟国を捉えました。

当レポートでは、NATO加盟国の防衛市場について調査分析し、戦略的必須要件、民間航空機の見通し、防衛の見通し、成長機会等に関する情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか？
• 戦略的必須要件 8（TM）
• NATO加盟国の防衛市場における上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine (TM)を促進

最初に知っておくべきこと

• 最初に知っておくべきこと
• 動向
• 課題

民間航空機の見通し

• ロシア-民間航空企業の情勢
• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動-ロシアの民間航空機への影響
• 制裁の概要とロシアの航空機OEMへの影響
• 制裁の概要と主要な航空機OEMへの影響

防衛の見通し

• ウクライナ軍への欧米からの軍事援助、2022年
• 戦場でのロシア軍の課題、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動、2022年
• ロシア最大の武器輸入業者、2016年から2020年
• ウクライナ国防予算
• 軍事援助のための外国のサプライヤー情勢、ウクライナ、2022年
• NATO防衛市場の成長の促進要因
• NATO防衛市場議論の成長の促進要因
• NATO防衛市場の成長の抑制要因
• NATO防衛市場議論における成長の抑制要因

主要な戦場プログラム分析

• 主要な戦場プログラム分析、土地プラットフォーム
• 主要な戦場プログラム分析、エアプラットフォーム

防衛市場へのロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動の初期影響分析

• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動下の欧州とNATOの防衛予算
• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動、軍用土地市場-ハイライト
• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動、軍事航空宇宙市場-ハイライト

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会1-戦争の影響を大きく受けたロシアの防衛産業は新たなビジネスの可能性を生み出す
• 成長機会2-戦争は新しい青い海として東欧の防衛市場を触媒する
• 成長機会3-非常に効果的な軍用UAVがこの領域に焦点を当てる
• 成長機会4-戦後のクラウド防衛インフラを強化する最初のビッグデータ戦争
• 成長機会5-戦後は攻撃型戦術兵器システムの需要が伸びる

付録

• 略語のリスト
• 図表リスト
• 免責事項

Transformative Growth, Ramifications, and Implications from Russo-Ukrainian War

The disruption the Russo-Ukrainian War is having on the international defense system has also sped up changes in the global defense industry. The war, the most influencing event on global defense markets in the last 2 decades, has caught NATO members in the midst of strategic national security and military build-up planning processes, especially in the face of China's potential threat.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has catalyzed the EU to update its strategy urgently. Russian aggression is described by the Council of the EU in late February 2022 as "a tectonic change in the history of Europe," from which a need arose to make a "quantum leap" in the development of military capabilities so as to act as an "assertive protective force," recognizing the gap between military capability and the threat.

With vast global implications, war will directly affect the global defense market's competitive landscape as well as the demands, needs, and long-term military build-up plans among NATO members. The increasing threat of Russian attribution is shifting European defense budgets and military posture. For the first time since WWII, Germany has allowed the export of offensive weapons and removed barriers for the procurement of armed UAVs.

It is too early to determine how the various reforms will transform the global defense market once the war has ended. But some significant areas stand out, considering that for the first time in decades Eastern and Western weapon systems and concepts of operations are engaged.

This report explores the initial trends impacting NATO members' defense markets in light of the changing geopolitical landscape and emerging military doctrines responding to modern battlefield challenges. The research investigates future directions for NATO's defense market, accounting for global perspectives and initial forecasts based on expanding national and multi-national defense budgets. Discussions include the prioritization of specific military domains, such as armed-tactical small and mini drones and their vast proliferation potential. Additionally, the report highlights NATO members' estimated defense efforts in domains such as C4ISR, missile defense, and AI.

Other major focus areas of this research are the main platforms used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the harsh implications of the war on the Russian defense industry, as Russia is currently the second-largest arms exporter globally with more than $13 billion in 2021 revenue. Frost & Sullivan expects vast shifts in the defense industry's competitive landscape post war and analyzes the initial implications of this influencing trend.

Frost & Sullivan based this report on primary and secondary research, including information from its internal databases. Principle industry analyst conducted interviews with leading defense thought leaders, government officials, and end users. Primary research accounts for 20% of the content.

Disclaimer: Long-term geo-strategic developments of the war and Russia's future moves will require further analysis to determine their implications on global defense trends.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the NATO Member Defense Market
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

What You Need to Know First

• What You Need To Know First
• Trends
• Challenges

Commercial Aviation Outlook

• Russia-Commercial Airlines Landscape
• Russo-Ukrainian War-Impact on Russian Commercial Aviation
• Overview of Sanctions & Impact on Russian Aircraft OEMs
• Overview of Sanctions & Impact on Leading Aircraft OEMs

Defense Outlook

• European and US Military aid to Ukrainian Armed Forces, 2022
• Russian Armed Forces Challenges on Battlefield, Russo-ukraine War, 2022
• Russia's Biggest Arms Importers, 2016-2020
• Ukrainian Defense Budget
• Foreign Supplier Landscape for Military Aid, Ukraine, 2022
• Growth Drivers for NATO Defense Market
• Growth Drivers for NATO Defense Market Discussion
• Growth Drivers for NATO Defense Market Discussion (continued)
• Growth Restraints for NATO Defense Market
• Growth Restraints in NATO Defense Market Discussion
• Growth Restraints in NATO Defense Market Discussion (continued)
• Growth Restraints in NATO Defense Market Discussion (continued)

Leading Battlefield Programs Analysis

• Leading Battlefield Programs Analysis, Land Platform
• Leading Battlefield Programs Analysis, Air Platform

Russo-Ukrainian War Initial Impact Analysis on Defense Market

• European and NATO Defense Budgets Amid Russo-ukrainian War
• European and NATO Defense Budgets Amid Russo-ukrainian War (continued)
• Russo-ukrainian War, Military Land Market-Highlights
• Russo-ukrainian War, Military Aerospace Market-Highlights
• Russo-ukrainian War, Military Aerospace Market-Highlights (continued)

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Russian Defense Industry Severely Impacted by War Generates New Business Potential
• Growth Opportunity 1-Russian Defense Industry Severely Impacted by War Generates New Business Potential (Continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-War Catalyzes Eastern European Defense Market as the New Blue Ocean
• Growth Opportunity 2-War Catalyzes Eastern European Defense Market as the New Blue Ocean (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-Highly Effective Military UAV Drives Focus toward this Domain
• Growth Opportunity 3-Highly Effective Military UAV Drives Focus toward this Domain (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 4-The First Big Data War to Increase Cloud Defense Infrastructure Post-war
• Growth Opportunity 4-The First Big Data War to Increase Cloud Defense Infrastructure Post-war (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 5-Demand for Offensive Tactical Weapon Systems to Grow Post-war
• Growth Opportunity 5-Demand for Offensive Tactical Weapon Systems to Grow Post-war (continued)

Appendix

• List of Abbreviations
• List of Abbreviations (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer